Top 5 lineups in the NL

[Mik 0]

1. St. Louis

2. Florida

3. Philadelphia

4. San Fran

5. Chicago

 

Article

 

Maybe this will finally be the year Bobby Abreu gets the respect he deserves?

[Guest Smell the ratings!!!]

besides the obligatory Giants reference, I am suprisingly unoffended.

[MikeJordan23 0]

I'd put Philly over Florida but other than that no problem.

[2GOLD 0]

The Cubs have a top five line-up?

Wow, didn't see that one coming. Apparently the scouts are extremely high on Dubois and Burnitz. I'm not high on Burnitz so this is actually quite shocking.

 

Get rid of Sosa and Alou and still remain in the top five. That's damn good.

[DerangedHermit 0]

I'd put Philly over Florida but other than that no problem.

I'd personally say it's going to be a four-team dogfight in the NL East almost all season.

[Mik 0]

I think it will be a 3 team dogfight between the Braves, Phillies, and Marlins.

 

I just don't see the Mets signings helping them to make up that much ground. They were truly awful last year. They traded away one of the potential AL ROYs in Scott Kazmir and they can really use some of that pitching this year.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Ok, here's my COMPLETE rankings of the NL Lineups.

 

1. St. Louis

2. Cincinnati

3. Atlanta

4. San Francisco

5. San Diego

6. Philadelphia

7. Florida

8. New York Mets

9. Milwaukee

10. Los Angeles

11. Chicago Cubs

12. Colorado

13. Houston

14. Washington

15. Pittsburgh

16. Arizona

 

St. Louis is obvious. Cincinnati at number two is a surprise, but remember they have the best outfield in the league, when healthy. San Diego is very underrated, due to their home park. The Padres actually finished second in the league in runs on the road last season. Florida is quite overrated. They have Delgado and Miguel Cabrera, but they're also running Alex Gonzalez and Juan Encarnacion in their lineup. Houston looks decimated there.

 

Remember these rankings are adjusted for park factors. In raw totals, the Rockies and Astros will finish much higher in runs scored.

 

Also, these rankings rate teams solely by their lineup's offense, and makes no allowance for bench depth, or team defense.

[treble 0]

I think people have been overrating Delgado somewhat this off-season. I guess this may seem a bit like sour grapes, since he's left the Jays, but I really doubt that if he stayed in Toronto that many people would pick that team's line-up too high, but now that he's in Florida the Marlins are suddenly the 2nd best team in the league?

 

Don't get me wrong, he can be a great hitter, but this has been bugging me. I'd really like to see someone compare last year's Jays' opening day starting line-up vs. this year's Marlins starting line-up and see how they stack up, because I don't think that there's really a huge difference (could be wrong, though) and I don't think anyone was saying that Toronto was as good as Florida is.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Don't get me wrong, he can be a great hitter, but this has been bugging me. I'd really like to see someone compare last year's Jays' opening day starting line-up vs. this year's Marlins starting line-up and see how they stack up, because I don't think that there's really a huge difference (could be wrong, though) and I don't think anyone was saying that Toronto was as good as Florida is.

 

Deal. Give me ten minutes, and I'll bang out some analysis.

[Styles 0]

Don't get me wrong, he can be a great hitter, but this has been bugging me.  I'd really like to see someone compare last year's Jays' opening day starting line-up vs. this year's Marlins starting line-up and see how they stack up, because I don't think that there's really a huge difference (could be wrong, though) and I don't think anyone was saying that Toronto was as good as Florida is.

No offense, but you have no offense. Hah! I made a funny....ehem, seriously Delgado joins Miguel Cabrera, Mike Lowell, Lo Duca and Jeff Conine as a solid power base with great contact/speed on the top with Pierre and Castillo.

 

Toronto still has Vernon Wells. That's about it. I know you guys got Corey Koskie too. Honestly I don't think I could name anyone else in Toronto's lineup this year and that is not a good sign...

[Your Paragon of Virtue 0]

Don't get me wrong, he can be a great hitter, but this has been bugging me. I'd really like to see someone compare last year's Jays' opening day starting line-up vs. this year's Marlins starting line-up and see how they stack up, because I don't think that there's really a huge difference (could be wrong, though) and I don't think anyone was saying that Toronto was as good as Florida is.

 

Deal. Give me ten minutes, and I'll bang out some analysis.

I'm awaiting your analysis, hopefully you include how well you think the Jays will do this year. Do they have a chance against either the Yanks or BoSox?

[Styles 0]

Don't get me wrong, he can be a great hitter, but this has been bugging me. I'd really like to see someone compare last year's Jays' opening day starting line-up vs. this year's Marlins starting line-up and see how they stack up, because I don't think that there's really a huge difference (could be wrong, though) and I don't think anyone was saying that Toronto was as good as Florida is.

 

Deal. Give me ten minutes, and I'll bang out some analysis.

I'm awaiting your analysis, hopefully you include how well you think the Jays will do this year. Do they have a chance against either the Yanks or BoSox?

Bah, they'll be lucky to stay out of the cellar. I'm resigned to the fact that the O's are "glass ceiling"ed at 3rd place, but with Tampa Bay and Toronto below them, Im at least confident they won't finish any lower...

[Your Paragon of Virtue 0]

Also, I have to point that I don't know why Carlos' addition to the Marlins maks them a contender. He wasn't THAT great, and I don't see him making that much of a difference.

 

It's weird, people were apathetic here in the T-Dot to this signing but the Marlins are acting like this makes them a world series contender or something.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Toronto's offense was well regarded at the beginning of last season. Remember they finished second in runs scored in 2003. However, I think the Marlins have a legitimately better offense. The Marlins' advantages are stronger players three and four places deep, and a solid catcher, rather than the patchwork the Blue Jays have presented the past few seasons. Keep in mind, however, I did rate the Marlins middle of the pack.

 

Toronto still has Vernon Wells. That's about it. I know you guys got Corey Koskie too. Honestly I don't think I could name anyone else in Toronto's lineup this year and that is not a good sign...

 

Lots of young players, including SS Russ Adams, C Guillermo Quiroz, and RF Alexis Rios. I think at least one of those guys will strike big. Orlando Hudson is one of the better second basemen in the league. It just depends on whether the young players can move forward.

 

I think alot of people miss the Blue Jays' rotation. Roy Halladay, Ted Lilly, Miguel Batista and David Bush are as good as many front fours in baseball. They're clearly better than what the Orioles, Devil Rays, Rangers, and others have to offer.

 

I think the Blue Jays have a reasonable chance at finishing above .500. I don't think they can sneak into the playoffs just yet, but the Yankee collapse will happen one of these days.

[Styles 0]

I think the NL East is pretty wide open. The problem is all the other teams have deficiencies. The Braves still have the best pitching, but their offense is suspect. The Phillies probably have the best offense but their pitching is suspect. The Nationals are still the Expos and The Mets...are the Mets they still are relying on their big aquisitions to carry them which hasn't worked for them the past few years.

Florida meanwhile might not have the scariest offense or most intimidating pitching but they're the most well balanced in my view. Their offense top to bottom is good and now they added the most feared power hitter of the offseson to their order (Beltran is more complete speed and defense wise but Delgado is flat out a better hitter). I don't see any glaring holes. Their pitching rotations was already heralded, and now with solid veteran leader Al Leiter joining a healthy AJ Burnett and if Beckett and Willis go back to their 03 forms, that's a tough staff to face. Not to mention Mota is the best set up guy in the NL and Alfonseca is a good closer.

 

No, Mik is not paying me anything. I'm sure Al could break it all down with stats and projections but just from a casual baseball fan perspective, the Marlins have the most complete package to win the East, or at least take a wild card.

[Styles 0]

I think alot of people miss the Blue Jays' rotation. Roy Halladay, Ted Lilly, Miguel Batista and David Bush are as good as many front fours in baseball. They're clearly better than what the Orioles, Devil Rays, Rangers, and others have to offer.

 

I think the Blue Jays have a reasonable chance at finishing above .500. I don't think they can sneak into the playoffs just yet, but the Yankee collapse will happen one of these days.

I'll give you Roy Halladay who is a true ace that the O's have no equivalent, but I wouldn't rank those other guys any better then Ponson, Lopez, Bedard and Cabrera.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

The Marlins have great balance in their lineup, but no depth beyond their eight starters and Jeff Conine. The Phillies easily have the most depth in the division. I like the Marlins' pitching, but Alfonseca is an average closer at best. Guillermo Mota will get the first shot at the job.

 

No, Mik is not paying me anything. I'm sure Al could break it all down with stats and projections but just from a casual baseball fan perspective, the Marlins have the most complete package to win the East, or at least take a wild card.

 

I've run multiple projections and gotten four different winners. Your guess is as good as mine.

[Styles 0]

I've run multiple projections and gotten four different winners. Your guess is as good as mine.

I take it the Nats aren't an option?

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

I think alot of people miss the Blue Jays' rotation.  Roy Halladay, Ted Lilly, Miguel Batista and David Bush are as good as many front fours in baseball.  They're clearly better than what the Orioles, Devil Rays, Rangers, and others have to offer.

 

I think the Blue Jays have a reasonable chance at finishing above .500.  I don't think they can sneak into the playoffs just yet, but the Yankee collapse will happen one of these days.

I'll give you Roy Halladay who is a true ace that the O's have no equivalent, but I wouldn't rank those other guys any better then Ponson, Lopez, Bedard and Cabrera.

Lilly's ERA beat all but Rodrigo Lopez, and David Bush is probably a better prospect than anyone on the Orioles. Just my opinion.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

I've run multiple projections and gotten four different winners.  Your guess is as good as mine.

I take it the Nats aren't an option?

Nope. The Nationals' last place finish was the only consistancy I got. Well, that and Abreu's MVP award.

[treble 0]

What I was kinda trying to get at was I'm interested in seeing people's projections for this year's Marlins line-up (minus Delgado) vs. what the projections were for the Jays starting line-up last year (minus Delgado).

 

Just at a quick glance, I'd give the Marlins an edge with Pierre vs. Reed Johnson of last year and Alex Gonzalez vs. Chris Woodward. Luis Castillo vs. Orlando Hudson is pretty close, as is Wells vs. Cabrera and Greg Myers vs. Paul Lo Duca. Lowell is obviously better than Hinske/Phelps, but Catalanotto is better than Encarnacion.

 

I hope this makes sense to someone other than me.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

I just can't see Greg Myers and Paul Lo Duca as comparable talents. Lo Duca's win shares the last four years have been 28, 19, 19 and 21. Myers' over the last four years were 6, 4, 8 and zero.

 

For what its worth, I added up the 2003 Runs Created totals for the 2004 Blue Jays' lineup, and compared them with the current Marlins' lineup. In both 2005 projections, and 2004 stats, the Marlins won out. They even win if I add Josh Phelps to the Blue Jays lineup.

[treble 0]

Yeah, maybe I'm overselling Myers a bit, but he played pretty well in '03 and I think a lot of people (myself included) thought he was going to duplicate that.

 

And I guess it wasn't as close as I thought it would be. Probably just personal bias.

[Styles 0]

Gregg Myers was the Orioles THIRD string catcher 3 seasons ago behind Brook Fordyce and Geronimo Gil. I know he's had a decent bounceback since, but Lo Duca is all star caliber. There's no comparison.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Gregg Myers was the Orioles THIRD string catcher 3 seasons ago behind Brook Fordyce and Geronimo Gil. I know he's had a decent bounceback since, but Lo Duca is all star caliber. There's no comparison.

And Myers outhit them both. Myers isn't a bad catcher at all, but there's something to be said for consistancy. Of course, in the second half, the Jays just might have the edge anyway.

[Mik 0]

In what should come as a surprise to no one, I think you have the Marlins underrated, Al. Two great table setters, a 3-4-5 equal or better than every team in the league (except St. Louis) and LoDuca, Encarnacion, Gonzalez batting 7-8-9.

 

I fully hope and expect to see Jeremy Hermida take over for Encarnacion at some point this year.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

In what should come as a surprise to no one, I think you have the Marlins underrated, Al. Two great table setters, a 3-4-5 equal or better than every team in the league (except St. Louis) and LoDuca, Encarnacion, Gonzalez batting 7-8-9.

 

Encarnacion and Gonzalez are not valuable players to have in the lineup in any position. They're liabilities. As for the 3-4-5 hitters, compare them to the Phillies. As good as Miguel Cabrera is, Bobby Abreu smokes him at the plate. Carlos Delgado and Jim Thome are comparable players, and Mike Lowell is a little better than Pat Burrell. Juan Pierre is a nice player and all, but Jimmy Rollins is a better hitter, and Juan Pierre's poor success rate at stolen bases negates his speed value. Chase Utley should outhit Luis Castillo, and again Castillo's speed does not make up for the advantage in power. Mike Lieberthal's outhit Paul Lo Duca every year the last three years. The only spot the Marlins have an advantage in is number five, where Lowell is better than Burrell.

 

I fully hope and expect to see Jeremy Hermida take over for Encarnacion at some point this year.

 

Let's not get excited here. Hermida's a nice prospect, but he hasn't hit AA yet.

[Mik 0]

Well, there has been hints that if Conine/Encarnacion do not perform well that Hermida will get a midseason callup. Obviously, I agree with you. He's only 21 years old - but I'm hoping they are right and that he gets a chance this year. Cabrera jumped straight from AA and while Hermida might not be as good as he is... he's still a good player.

 

I think the Phillies have a good lineup too, probably equal to the Marlins. I think some of your estimations are home town favored. Abreu is great, but aside from BB/K ratio he doesn't "smoke" Cabrera in anything. He's a better player... now.

 

Obviously, we are not going to agree here. I know Philly has a great lineup. I just wish it were April already.

[UseTheSledgehammerUh 0]

A shame the Phillies have no pitchers.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

The Phillies have little front-line talent, but they are deeper than most teams. The Marlins have Valdez fifth and then they fall off a cliff. Ditto the Mets. The Phillies have Ryan Madson and Gavin Floyd in case anyone in the rotation falters.