2005-06 MLB Offseason Thread

[The Czech Republic 0]

I'm still not seeing the appeal of Mota. This guy was a potential diamond in the rough during his days in LA, but he's really looked like a dud since the trade to Florida.

Wasn't he injured for a considerable stretch, and never rekindled it thereafter?

 

Wait, this is Marlins Alex Gonzalez, right? As opposed to Game 6 Error Alex Gonzalez? Not like either one is a real prize.

[Bruiser Chong 0]

Mota for Crisp sounda more fair...

 

Marte is gonna be a great hitter soon, terrible move. Then you sign a SS who has a career .291 OBP

 

Looks like the Sox are trying to mail in the 2006 season.

Even Cubs fans don't call the season in JANUARY.

 

And Mota for Crisp would be awful. Have you seen Coco play? Guy's a respectable hitter with a nifty glove.

[strummer 0]

Jorge Sosa signs with the Braves

 

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=Atf4...ov=ap&type=lgns

[mike546 0]

Mota for Crisp sounda more fair...

 

Marte is gonna be a great hitter soon, terrible move. Then you sign a SS who has a career .291 OBP

 

Looks like the Sox are trying to mail in the 2006 season.

 

 

You gets get a proven CF, whos young, has spped, can hit and has terrific range, for an unproven minor leaguer, and your wasting away the 2006 season? What did you expect to get Crisp for? Mota? Are you joking?

[Precious Roy 0]

So, the Sox have given up Hanley Ramirez, Andy Marte and Anibal Sanchez....to get Josh Beckett, Coco Crisp and Mike Lowell? They ARE the Yankees!!!

 

If I can be serious for a moment, Crisp is a good player. Good glove, some speed, some pop, gets on base at a decent clip. Jack of all trades type guy, 26 years old, probably due for some modest improvement over the next couple years. I don't know if he's their answer at leadoff, but he fills the void in CF.

 

But damn, the young and rich get younger and richer! Of all the teams to trade Marte to it had to be Cleveland!?! 3B was one of the few holes in their lineup...

[Guest OKCoyote]

If not Crisp at leadoff, then who? Youkilis?

[Boon 0]

If not Crisp at leadoff, then who? Youkilis?

Yes.

[Boon 0]

With him in tow, the Sox would likely have an Opening Day lineup that looks like the following:

 

Crisp, cf; Mark Loretta, 2b; David Ortiz, dh; Manny Ramirez, lf; Jason Varitek, c; Trot Nixon, rf; Mike Lowell, 3b; Kevin Youkilis, 1b; Gonzalez, ss.

 

Meh- not as bad as it could've been. The rotation is my concern- they've got 7 potential starters.

[Spaceman Spiff 0]

http://www.philly.com/mld/philly/sports/13689339.htm

 

The Phillies are close to filling a hole in their bullpen with a trade that would send outfielder Jason Michaels to the Cleveland Indians for veteran reliever Arthur Rhodes, baseball sources confirmed last night.

 

The deal is contingent on the Indians completing a trade that would send outfielder Coco Crisp to the Boston Red Sox for reliever Guillermo Mota and infielder Andy Marte.

 

That deal appeared to be done, pending physicals for the players involved.

 

Rhodes, 36, is a well-traveled lefthander coming off a strong season with the Indians. He would likely become the Phillies' primary setup man for closer Tom Gordon. The acquisition of Rhodes would allow the Phillies to shift Ryan Madson to the starting rotation.

[The Man in Blak 0]

I don't think this is the slam dunk set of trades for the Indians that everybody says it is. Here's a couple of lines for you.

 

Mystery Player A: .300/.345/.465, 16 HR, 15 steals, 119 OPS+

Mystery Player B: .307/.379/.477, 14 HR, 36 steals, 116 OPS+

 

Outside of the steals and a slight bump in B's walk rate, these two sets of numbers are remarkably the same. Mystery Player A is Coco Crisp's line for last year, which isn't bad at all, considering that Jacobs Field is one of the stronger pitcher's parks in the AL. Mystery Player B is the age-25 season for Johnny Damon, as a member of the Kansas City Royals.

 

Coco Crisp is 25 years old today and he has many of the tools that Damon had back then; speed, defense, and the ability to hit for average. Crisp doesn't have Damon's age-25 walk rate, but he also doesn't have the same experience at the Major League level that Damon did back in 1999. On top of that, Crisp has demonstrated decent command of the strike zone in his minor league stints, particularly in his 2003 stint with Buffalo. Crisp's command of the strike zone may be a skill that hasn't caught up to the rest of his tools yet, but it could manifest as soon as next year. Damon hiked up his walk rate significantly in that age-25 season, which was his fourth full season in the big leagues; Crisp will be playing his fourth full season in 2006, in a much more potent run environment.

 

His replacement in this set of trades is Jason Michaels and, while Michaels is certainly an underrated commodity (and so frequently mentioned as underrated that he almost becomes overrated), he's also five years older and not significantly cheaper than Crisp. Michaels doesn't have the speed or the power that Crisp has, but he does have the ability to get on base and he is fairly handy with the glove, from what I've heard. The problem is that we may have already seen the best from Michaels and, arguably, it's not as good as what Crisp brings to the table.

 

Another downgrade for the Indians comes in the bullpen, going from Arthur Rhodes to a swiftly declining Guillermo Mota. While Rhodes was blowing people away as a specialist in the Cleveland bullpen, Mota was coughing up a 4.00+ ERA in Florida with a declining K/BB rate. Rhodes' departure leaves Scott Sauerbeck as the primary lefty out of a bullpen that's already been weakened by Bob Howry's departure.

 

Of course, all of these downgrades will be worth it if Andy Marte fulfills the promise and expectations that virtually everybody in the minor league prospect world has bestowed upon him. Marte may have looked overwhelmed in his cup of coffee last year, but he's also only 21 years old. He's already demonstrated exceptional power and pitch recognition for his age, so he may not need much more seasoning in the minors before he'll be called upon to be the salve for Cleveland's woeful 3B situation. That being said, there's just something about the way Marte has been handled that raises one's eyebrows. Despite being a spectacular prospect, the Braves wouldn't move Chipper Jones to first for him (nor would they move Marte to first to get his bat into the lineup). And even though the Red Sox are loaded with third basemen, don't you think they would have been more reluctant to part with a prospect of Marte's quality over Kevin Youkilis? Even though being traded by two organizations does not spell doom for a career, it definitely makes one wonder what the Braves and the Red Sox are seeing in Marte that others are not.

[Cartman 0]

Ok, Man in Blak just talked me down from the ledge.

 

I guess I can't really complain as long as Crisp slides into the leadoff role increasing his OBP significantly in the process. Otherwise you're looking at Youkilis and Loretta 1-2 and thats awful slow.

[The Man in Blak 0]

Yeah, but Youks and Loretta get on base almost 40% of the time. Slow or not, that's a lot of RBI opportunities for Big Papi and Manny when they come up to the plate.

 

As far as Crisp goes, I'm not sure where he could fit. He's a switch-hitter with speed, so everybody naturally wants to put him at the top of the lineup, but he may actually work better as a No. 6 hitter. In the six slot, he can not only still utilize his power to maximum effect (with more baserunners on ahead of him), but he can use his speed when he gets on base to provide better opportunities for some of the weaker hitters in the lineup.

[The Man in Blak 0]

Globe is reporting that the Crisp deal has changed up; the Red Sox will acquire Coco Crisp, David Riske and Josh Bard from the Indians for Andy Marte, Guillermo Mota and Kelly Shoppach.

 

If that's the case, this trade becomes even sketchier for the Indians. Mota's enough of a downgrade as it is, so Riske's inclusion in the deal is a mind-boggler. Shoppach is probably twice the player that Josh Bard is, but he's a second-string catcher and Victor Martinez plays almost every day. Once again, if Marte puts it all together and hits 25-30 homers for the Indians in 2006 (or even 2007), then this is all water under the bridge. But they're injecting even more risk into the deal with this iteration and, if Marte should falter or get hurt, then they could get burned.

[Precious Roy 0]

Crisp is 26

[The Man in Blak 0]

Thanks for the correction - Crisp will be playing in his age-26 season this year.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

I don't think this is the slam dunk set of trades for the Indians that everybody says it is. Here's a couple of lines for you.

 

Mystery Player A: .300/.345/.465, 16 HR, 15 steals, 119 OPS+

Mystery Player B: .307/.379/.477, 14 HR, 36 steals, 116 OPS+

 

Outside of the steals and a slight bump in B's walk rate, these two sets of numbers are remarkably the same. Mystery Player A is Coco Crisp's line for last year, which isn't bad at all, considering that Jacobs Field is one of the stronger pitcher's parks in the AL. Mystery Player B is the age-25 season for Johnny Damon, as a member of the Kansas City Royals.

 

Coco Crisp is 25 years old today and he has many of the tools that Damon had back then; speed, defense, and the ability to hit for average. Crisp doesn't have Damon's age-25 walk rate, but he also doesn't have the same experience at the Major League level that Damon did back in 1999. On top of that, Crisp has demonstrated decent command of the strike zone in his minor league stints, particularly in his 2003 stint with Buffalo. Crisp's command of the strike zone may be a skill that hasn't caught up to the rest of his tools yet, but it could manifest as soon as next year. Damon hiked up his walk rate significantly in that age-25 season, which was his fourth full season in the big leagues; Crisp will be playing his fourth full season in 2006, in a much more potent run environment.

 

You're missing something big from that evaluation. Let me run more numbers for you

 

Player A: .260/.314/.386, 1 HR, 4 steals, 84 OPS+

Player B: .271/.313/.368, 6 HRs, 25 steals, 74 OPS+

Player C: .289/.348/.484, 22 HRs, 22 steals, 125 OPS+

 

Players A and B are Crisp and Damon again, except at age 22. Player C is Grady Sizemore. Given a choice between Crisp and Sizemore, which is your cornerstone center fielder? I think it's obviously Sizemore. Crisp is a fine ballplayer, but he's about average as a left fielder. The Indians are flipping him for Andy Marte, a guy who produced in the International League at 21.

 

This is a good trade for both clubs. They took areas of depth and traded them to shore up weak areas.

[The Man in Blak 0]

It's not a position of depth, though. After Michaels, Sizemore, and Casey Blake, who do they have? Jason Dubois? Juan Gonzalez? Sizemore is a star in the making, but he doesn't redeem the rest of the outfield, with Blake looking to decline even more, and Michaels being unproven over the course of a whole season.

 

Whether Sizemore or Crisp is the cornerstone centerfield isn't really relevant to my argument. It's a one-to-one switch for Jason Michaels and, though Michaels has an impressive on-base percentage, he doesn't have a lot of power or speed to contribute to the team and there's a good chance that his hitting prowess will take a hit when he goes to Cleveland, either by virtue of park factors or a little bit of decline. Like I said, we might have already seen the best that Michaels has to offer - Crisp still has room and time to improve. Even though his range was somewhat squandered in left field for the Indians, he still had value as a corner outfielder.

 

As for Marte, like I said, if he produces, then this trade takes a great turn for the Indians. But wouldn't you think the Red Sox and the Braves - two teams with strong philosophies on the sabermetric and scouting wavelengths respectively would have kept a "sure-fire" prospect like Marte? Why did they have dangle him for middle-tier shortstops like Renteria and Lugo, when all signs point to this guy lighting up the scoreboard in the majors right now? It just doesn't seem right to me and, while that's not the most scientific conclusion to come to, I haven't seen Marte have enough success in the major leagues to dissuade me from it.

[tominator89 0]

How does this trade sound from the Phillies perspective?

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

It's not a position of depth, though. After Michaels, Sizemore, and Casey Blake, who do they have? Jason Dubois? Juan Gonzalez? Sizemore is a star in the making, but he doesn't redeem the rest of the outfield, with Blake looking to decline even more, and Michaels being unproven over the course of a whole season.

 

Whether Sizemore or Crisp is the cornerstone centerfield isn't really relevant to my argument. It's a one-to-one switch for Jason Michaels and, though Michaels has an impressive on-base percentage, he doesn't have a lot of power or speed to contribute to the team and there's a good chance that his hitting prowess will take a hit when he goes to Cleveland, either by virtue of park factors or a little bit of decline. Like I said, we might have already seen the best that Michaels has to offer - Crisp still has room and time to improve. Even though his range was somewhat squandered in left field for the Indians, he still had value as a corner outfielder.

 

Sure he has value, but he's not overwhelmingly better than a mid-level free agent. A .345 OBP isn't that special. Neither is 15 steals in 21 attempts. Crisp's comp list is nice, but I really think Andy Marte is a better prospect. It'll be harder to find a bat at third base than at left field in the future.

 

As for position depth, the Indians have Franklin Gutierrez who could possibly make a run, although he had a weak 2005. What the Indians could conceivably do is promote Ryan Garko and play him at first base, and slide Ben Broussard to left field.

 

As for Marte, like I said, if he produces, then this trade takes a great turn for the Indians. But wouldn't you think the Red Sox and the Braves - two teams with strong philosophies on the sabermetric and scouting wavelengths respectively would have kept a "sure-fire" prospect like Marte? Why did they have dangle him for middle-tier shortstops like Renteria and Lugo, when all signs point to this guy lighting up the scoreboard in the majors right now? It just doesn't seem right to me and, while that's not the most scientific conclusion to come to, I haven't seen Marte have enough success in the major leagues to dissuade me from it.

 

That's kind of a circular argument. But I think it's pretty straightforward. The Braves couldn't move Chipper Jones off the hot corner, and the Red Sox were loaded there as well.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

How does this trade sound from the Phillies perspective?

The Phils add bullpen depth with Arthur Rhodes, who experienced an excellent season in Cleveland. That allows them to move Ryan Madson to the rotation. Losing Michaels may be a small blow, but Aaron Rowand and Shane Victorino will fill the void in the outfield. Peter Bergeron, Chris Roberson and Shawn Garrett will all compete for the fifth outfielder's job.

[Bruiser Chong 0]

I wonder if Rhodes can handle pitching in a hitter's park. Most seem to forget how bad he usually was prior to his magnificent 2005 campaign.

[the pinjockey 0]

You seem to be a lot higher on the deal than I am al. I can't see giving up Michaels for a guy who has pitched as few innings as Rhodes the last couple years (avg. 45 1/3 IP/year the last 3 years). The bench is already going to be weak as is.

 

Get something else back with him or do what is necessary to turn it into Betancourt and I think the deal works. But using one of your two trading chips for a older middle reliever seems so....Wadeish.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

I wonder if Rhodes can handle pitching in a hitter's park. Most seem to forget how bad he usually was prior to his magnificent 2005 campaign.

And before that he was absolutely dominant in Seattle. Except for his awful 2004, Rhodes allows very few home runs. His control is good and he struck out nearly a batter an inning last year. I see no red flags on his performance.

 

You seem to be a lot higher on the deal than I am al. I can't see giving up Michaels for a guy who has pitched as few innings as Rhodes the last couple years (avg. 45 1/3 IP/year the last 3 years). The bench is already going to be weak as is.

 

Get something else back with him or do what is necessary to turn it into Betancourt and I think the deal works. But using one of your two trading chips for a older middle reliever seems so....Wadeish.

Rhodes pitched nearly 70 innings a year in Seattle with no apparent ill effects. He missed about half of 2004 with injury. I'd be a bit worried about Betancourt. He was nailed for steroids last year.

 

The Phillies could probably get more back for Michaels, but what do they need really? I don't think teams are willing to move a solid starter for him, and the Phils are stocked with position players. This is probably the best move Gillick could make.

[Bruiser Chong 0]

I missed that the Cubs signed Wade Miller.

 

And Jose Macias is off to Japan.

[The Czech Republic 0]

I missed that the Cubs signed Wade Miller.

You're joking.

[KingPK 0]

Nope, though I think it was only for a year.

[The Man in Blak 0]

Sure he has value, but he's not overwhelmingly better than a mid-level free agent. A .345 OBP isn't that special. Neither is 15 steals in 21 attempts. Crisp's comp list is nice, but I really think Andy Marte is a better prospect. It'll be harder to find a bat at third base than at left field in the future.

 

I agree with you that a bat at third base is a more rare commodity than at the hot corner, but that doesn't diminish what Crisp brings to the table. A .345 OBP may not lead the league or be in the top 20, but it's above average for the league (bb-ref has the league average OBP at .323) and I would imagine that it's right around the mean for corner outfielders as well. Barring an unlikely collapse, Crisp should provide Boston with average production offensively and defensively at a crucial position in the field, which actually makes him an above average player on the whole.

 

As for position depth, the Indians have Franklin Gutierrez who could possibly make a run, although he had a weak 2005. What the Indians could conceivably do is promote Ryan Garko and play him at first base, and slide Ben Broussard to left field.

 

Gutierrez is probably a year away, at best. His 2004 stint in Akron was decent, but not spectacular (.302/.372/.466, but little else), and he turned in a disappointing second tour in 2005 (.261/.322/.423) before being rushed up to the majors last year. Other than those on-base numbers in 2004, he hasn't really shown a lot in his minor league performance record to suggest that he'll be a strong outfielder even when he makes it to the big time.

 

Promoting Garko would certainly put another exceptional young bat on the roster, but sliding Broussard, a below-average defensive first basemen, to a more difficult position on the defensive spectrum doesn't strike me as a good idea. Garko may actually make for a more compelling move to the corner outfield, but changing positions at this stage of his career could be risky.

 

In either case, we're talking about question marks in the outfield which, as I said before, doesn't necessarily make for a position of "strength."

 

As for Marte, like I said, if he produces, then this trade takes a great turn for the Indians. But wouldn't you think the Red Sox and the Braves - two teams with strong philosophies on the sabermetric and scouting wavelengths respectively would have kept a "sure-fire" prospect like Marte? Why did they have dangle him for middle-tier shortstops like Renteria and Lugo, when all signs point to this guy lighting up the scoreboard in the majors right now? It just doesn't seem right to me and, while that's not the most scientific conclusion to come to, I haven't seen Marte have enough success in the major leagues to dissuade me from it.

 

That's kind of a circular argument. But I think it's pretty straightforward. The Braves couldn't move Chipper Jones off the hot corner, and the Red Sox were loaded there as well.

 

Maybe I'm just insane, but my argument seems fairly straightforward to me.

 

Marte was probably one of the three most desired prospects in the league before this offseason. Statisticians have projected Marte to be a monster at the plate, some even projecting him at 35-40 home runs a year within the next two years. As you've mentioned before, finding a bat of his potential caliber at third base is very rare. So, with his status as a prospect at its absolute fever pitch, why was he dealt twice in the same offseason? Wouldn't Marte be the guy you want to hold onto?

 

Being dealt twice this offseason doesn't change Marte's performance in the minor leagues, but it does put his potential in a slightly different context. The Braves and the Red Sox are two of the sharper organizations in the league, so I'm willing to be open to the possibility that there's something that the Braves and the Red Sox saw in Marte that didn't quite add up. Both of those teams don't have an abundance of guys killing the ball at a young age like Marte...so what compelled them to deal him? Is he damaged goods? Is there something in his major league stint that they observed that they thought would stunt his future development?

 

These trades don't make Marte a failure before he's even out of the gate, but they do strengthen the possibility that Marte will not be the contributor that so many writers think he will be, as a result of injury, regression, or complete collapse. And I don't feel that we can ignore that possibility when evaluating this deal.

[Bruiser Chong 0]

Nope, though I think it was only for a year.

It'd be nice insurance for the annual Kerry Wood DL stint, but Miller's as likely to be on the DL at that time as anyone else in the bigs.

[The Man in Blak 0]

Maybe they can take turns? Kind of like kids waiting to go down the only slide in the playground, except that the slide dips you straight onto a busy highway.

[the pinjockey 0]

The Phillies could probably get more back for Michaels, but what do they need really? I don't think teams are willing to move a solid starter for him, and the Phils are stocked with position players. This is probably the best move Gillick could make.

 

I don't know why you would be concerned about Betancourt for the roids. He pitched fine after the suspension last year.

 

And if Rhodes is all they can get for Michaels, then keeping him should be an option. I think Victorino should be a solid player, but there is nothing wrong with keeping Michaels around just in case he has problems adjusting to the majors full time (relying on Victorino and one of Roberson/Bergeron/Kroeger does concern me a little bit). Plus they could use the legit bench bat. If a month into the season they are proven to need a middle reliever and Victorino is adjusting, they can always revisit a deal since there is always someone on the market.