Ask Al: Part Two!

[Precious Roy 0]

What the fuck is wrong with New York sportswriters/fans/etc.?

 

This A-Rod thing has pissed me off to no end. He's got 21 home runs, over 70 RBIs, close to a .900 ops...not his best season but far from a bad season at the plate. His errors are troubling (of course like 3 of them came in one game, and there's been like 2 since then, all since he started getting booed at the plate), but it's such a small sample size, there's no reason to think it isn't just a bump in the road. I don't understand why everyone wants to throw him overboard. He slumped in June, ok, but now it's like self-fulfilling prophecy from all the people looking to tear him down. You want to hate and boo? Yeah, that's real productive. The sheer # of Yankee fans that shit on the guy and demand he be traded is very troubling to me.

 

What's your take on this whole situation?

[Guest Princess Leena]

Ok, I'll play.

 

1) Why does Brandon Webb get no respect. He leads the league in innings pitched. Has the best ERA amongst starting pitchers. And if one wasn't a huge baseball nut, you have no idea who he is.

 

Do you think he should win the Cy Young.

 

2) What type of value could the D-Backs get if they trade Shawn Green in the next week. He has the .300+ average, but it's a hollow stat because he never walks, can't run, and has below average power for an OF, nowadays.

 

3) Are you going to see any of the Phillies' games this current series.

[Your Paragon of Virtue 0]

I think he said he went to the game tonight.

[Guest Princess Leena]

He couldn't have gone to the Phillies' game tonight since they're still playing.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

What the fuck is wrong with New York sportswriters/fans/etc.?

 

This A-Rod thing has pissed me off to no end. He's got 21 home runs, over 70 RBIs, close to a .900 ops...not his best season but far from a bad season at the plate. His errors are troubling (of course like 3 of them came in one game, and there's been like 2 since then, all since he started getting booed at the plate), but it's such a small sample size, there's no reason to think it isn't just a bump in the road. I don't understand why everyone wants to throw him overboard. He slumped in June, ok, but now it's like self-fulfilling prophecy from all the people looking to tear him down. You want to hate and boo? Yeah, that's real productive. The sheer # of Yankee fans that shit on the guy and demand he be traded is very troubling to me.

 

What's your take on this whole situation?

The problem is that if the media wants to bend A-Rod's performance one way, it is very hard to break that pattern. Ortiz is considered a clutch god in part because EVERY clutch hit is given a lead on one of the highlight shows. Not every hitter gets that benefit. For A-Rod it's the opposite. Every time he doesn't come through, it becomes a major story. In a sport where the average rate of failure is 66%, you can make nearly any hitter look bad if you want.

 

Fortunately, there are ways to counter this, with statistics. Fangraphs.com uses Win Probability to measure hitting performance. The concept is simple. With decades of play-by-play data, the probability of winning in any situation (for example, down 2, two runners on, one out, 8th inning) is available. The stat WPA (Win Probability Added) simply compares the difference before and after an event. So if a batter walks to lead off an inning, that's counted as a positive. You can easily have a negative WPA.

 

Derek Jeter is currently third in baseball in this statistic. He's having a great year. A-Rod is sixth on his team. He's in the black however. I hesitate to bring in numbers because I can't really explain them, but Jeter comes in at 348.8, while A-Rod is at 43.8. The worst Yankee? Miguel Cairo is at -130.2. Funny how the NY Post never rips him.

 

First in WPA is Albert Pujols, who has done nearly double to contribute to his team's victories than any other hitter.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Ok, I'll play.

 

1) Why does Brandon Webb get no respect. He leads the league in innings pitched. Has the best ERA amongst starting pitchers. And if one wasn't a huge baseball nut, you have no idea who he is.

 

Do you think he should win the Cy Young.

 

2) What type of value could the D-Backs get if they trade Shawn Green in the next week. He has the .300+ average, but it's a hollow stat because he never walks, can't run, and has below average power for an OF, nowadays.

 

3) Are you going to see any of the Phillies' games this current series.

1. I haven't really paid attention to BBTN or its ilk lately, so I don't know who's getting talked up and who isn't. Quite honestly, I'd be hard pressed to identify any NL pitcher who's gotten a great deal of attention.

 

And yes, I'd give him my Cy Young vote.

 

2. I think Green could get some value in a trade, simply because it's a thin free agent market. The trick is finding a match. The D'backs aren't hurting for prospects.

 

3. I usually attend about one Phillies game a year, if that. The stadium is a two hour drive and everything is damned expensive. If I go to a game, it's usually to AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre (as was the case tonight).

 

EDIT: I'll also point out that minor league games are quicker. I've been home for an hour while the Phillies, who started at the same time, are still playing.

[bob_barron 0]

Miguel Cairo is at -130.2. Funny how the NY Post never rips him.

 

Miguel Cairo isn't being paid $25 mil a year

[devo 0]

Going by that, he shouldn't be getting paid at all.

[Your Paragon of Virtue 0]

Miguel Cairo is at -130.2. Funny how the NY Post never rips him.

 

Miguel Cairo isn't being paid $25 mil a year

 

Oh c'mon Bob you know how to use the quote function.

[bob_barron 0]

I was too lazy. :-(

 

Do you think Manny Ramirez has a shot at the all time HR or RBI records?

[Lt. Al Giardello 0]

When Vernon Wells contract runs out(I think it's this year or next year) what are the chances he will stay in Toronto? I've heard he might want to go back home to Texas.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

- What has been the most significant development in front office construction in the post-Moneyball world? Has the dissemenation of statistical knowledge tightened the gap between the haves and the have-nots, or is the opposite true? Has the misinterpretation of the book as Walkball or OBPBall effectively thrown the lesser GMs off the scent and created new market inefficiencies (e.g. the A's and Red Sox' use of advanced statistical modeling to reconstruct their teams around defense)?

 

-Has the great fallacy of the sabermetric revolution been the divide created between stats and scouts, either real or perceived? Many have theorized that the weakness of the A's current farm system is their continuous drafting of players with stats that they covet, rather than players who have the skillsets to develop into players who can achieve the stats they covet. To elaborate, young players with OBPs that are walk-heavy tend to flame out as they move up the ranks because the better pitchers learn to expose that the players wait on pitches because they are inferior as hitters. How far are away are current teams away from effectively marrying the two camps?

[tominator89 0]

The Phillies:

 

1) Who should be traded before the deadline?

 

2) Who is likely to be gone in the offseason?

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

I was too lazy. :-(

 

Do you think Manny Ramirez has a shot at the all time HR or RBI records?

No.

 

When Vernon Wells contract runs out(I think it's this year or next year) what are the chances he will stay in Toronto? I've heard he might want to go back home to Texas.

Wells will go where the money is. It helps the Blue Jays that both the Yankees and Mets have locked up center fielders to big money contracts.

 

- What has been the most significant development in front office construction in the post-Moneyball world? Has the dissemenation of statistical knowledge tightened the gap between the haves and the have-nots, or is the opposite true? Has the misinterpretation of the book as Walkball or OBPBall effectively thrown the lesser GMs off the scent and created new market inefficiencies (e.g. the A's and Red Sox' use of advanced statistical modeling to reconstruct their teams around defense)?

 

-Has the great fallacy of the sabermetric revolution been the divide created between stats and scouts, either real or perceived? Many have theorized that the weakness of the A's current farm system is their continuous drafting of players with stats that they covet, rather than players who have the skillsets to develop into players who can achieve the stats they covet. To elaborate, young players with OBPs that are walk-heavy tend to flame out as they move up the ranks because the better pitchers learn to expose that the players wait on pitches because they are inferior as hitters. How far are away are current teams away from effectively marrying the two camps?

This is a tough one to answer. Teams have made several adjustments in the wake of the Moneyball revolution. It is important to remember however that Moneyball was just a byproduct of the original Bill James revolution in the early to mid 80s. Teams have changed considerably since then, and I don't think the divide between scouting and statistical analysis is as pronounced as the media would have you believe. It's much more pronounced in the writing world than anywhere else.

 

The Athletics are very much aware of what creates a successful player. The idea of drafting college players is not because they are better than high schoolers. It's about risk. With a college player, you're playing the odds. When you draft a high schooler, you might draft a superstar, but can easily end up with a bust. There's an argument that with so many picks, you can take lots of high schoolers and if one pays off, it's a success.

 

Given the success the A's have had building from within, I don't think they really have a problem with their drafting. They are not going to cut off their nose to spite their face. If they have the chance to draft a Justin Upton, they'd do it.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

The Phillies:

 

1) Who should be traded before the deadline?

 

2) Who is likely to be gone in the offseason?

Here's who the Phils should trade.

 

1. Aaron Rowand

Hustle enhances his real value. Shane Victorino is ready to step in, Michael Bourn could be a future option.

 

2. David Dellucci

Miscast as a pinch hitter, needs regular playing time with his ability.

 

3. Cory Lidle/Jon Lieber

Starters are highly coveted. Scott Mathieson is as good as Lidle right now.

 

4. Rheal Cormier

3rd best relief ERA despite middling peripherals.

 

5. Arthur Rhodes

Free agent after the season.

 

The Phillies should only deal Burrell or Abreu if the right deal comes along. It would be a mistake to cut either, especially Abreu, just to cut salary.

 

Lieberthal's gone after the season. I could see Bell coming back for one year if the Phils don't sign Aubrey Huff. Aaron Fultz I think will return, as will Randy Wolf. Arthur Rhodes, Cory Lidle, Ryan Franklin and Mike Lieberthal are gone.

[Guest Agent of Oblivion]

What is your top five PFP fighters in the world right now?

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

What is your top five PFP fighters in the world right now?

Nolan Ryan

Brett Myers

Ozzie Guillen

Ariel Pestrano

The Water Cooler

[sfaJack 0]

We were discussing this at work the other day:

 

Over the four seasons that they've been together on the Red Sox, are Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz the single greatest 1-2 punch in a lineup since Ruth/Gehrig?

 

Look at their totals; the sheer number of HR and RBI, and the OPS they've posted are really something to behold. We were hard pressed to come up with any other tandem that's been that good except for possibly Mantle/Maris, but they were only together for 2 years.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

We were discussing this at work the other day:

 

Over the four seasons that they've been together on the Red Sox, are Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz the single greatest 1-2 punch in a lineup since Ruth/Gehrig?

 

Look at their totals; the sheer number of HR and RBI, and the OPS they've posted are really something to behold. We were hard pressed to come up with any other tandem that's been that good except for possibly Mantle/Maris, but they were only together for 2 years.

That's a fun question. They are not the best, but they're close. Manny Ramirez's OPS+ from 2003-05 was 156, and Ortiz's was 150. Here are a few pairs of teammates I found that beat those numbers.

 

1. Hank Aaron/Eddie Mathews (Milwaukee/Atlanta Braves, 1954-66)

 

Two HOFers, two members of the 500 home run club, and they were teammates for 12 seasons.

 

2. Jimmie Foxx/Al Simmons (Philadelphia Athletics, 1925-32)

 

Admittedly, we're pushing the limits of "since Ruth/Gehrig." They deserve mention though.

 

3. Joe Dimaggio/Charlie Keller (New York Yankees, 1939-49)

 

Keller was absolutely a fearsome hitter before injuries cut his career short. If you look at Keller's raw stats, be sure to note that he missed 1944 and most of 1945 due to World War II.

 

4. Mickey Mantle/Roger Maris (New York Yankees, 1960-62)

 

Since I used three years, they appeared at the top of my list. I bumped them down because they rate much lower if you go four years, and because Mantle drags this tandem up kicking and screaming. They're rated at all because Maris won two MVPs.

 

5. Ken Griffey Jr./Edgar Martinez (Seattle Mariners, 1989-99)

 

How soon we forget.

 

I've got Ortiz/Ramirez sixth, followed closely by Ramirez/Thome and possibly Ramirez/Belle. This isn't an exhaustive list, and if anyone can think of a group to top those five, I'd like to hear it. One requirement is that it can't be pre-1930.

[C Dubya 04 0]

The Phillies:

 

1) Who should be traded before the deadline?

 

2) Who is likely to be gone in the offseason?

Here's who the Phils should trade.

 

1. Aaron Rowand

Hustle enhances his real value. Shane Victorino is ready to step in, Michael Bourn could be a future option.

 

2. David Dellucci

Miscast as a pinch hitter, needs regular playing time with his ability.

 

3. Cory Lidle/Jon Lieber

Starters are highly coveted. Scott Mathieson is as good as Lidle right now.

 

4. Rheal Cormier

3rd best relief ERA despite middling peripherals.

 

5. Arthur Rhodes

Free agent after the season.

 

The Phillies should only deal Burrell or Abreu if the right deal comes along. It would be a mistake to cut either, especially Abreu, just to cut salary.

 

Lieberthal's gone after the season. I could see Bell coming back for one year if the Phils don't sign Aubrey Huff. Aaron Fultz I think will return, as will Randy Wolf. Arthur Rhodes, Cory Lidle, Ryan Franklin and Mike Lieberthal are gone.

 

With the Phillies ownership group (whoever this may consist of) setting a dollar limit, why do you think that Burrell should be kept? To me the team could easily use his money better if they can get someone to agree to pick up his salary.

 

Now a quick question. I have no basis on this, but to me it seems the Phillies have too many left handed hitters in their line-up. Are there any statistics on what the best mix of lefty vs. righty hitters is? Basing this on 27 years of watching baseball, I feel that a left handed hitter does worse against a left handed pitcher for some reason than a righty vs. a righty.

[the pinjockey 0]

2. David Dellucci

Miscast as a pinch hitter, needs regular playing time with his ability.

 

Would you take less for Abreu and/or Burrell if you could get Dellucci signed to at least a one year extension and could plug him in?

 

Also, if they move either one and get the almighty salary relief would you really bust slot and sign Kyle Gibson and Josh Thrailkill? It would mark a big financial commitment to this draft, but if you can essentially buy two high round picks with found money then why not.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

With the Phillies ownership group (whoever this may consist of) setting a dollar limit, why do you think that Burrell should be kept? To me the team could easily use his money better if they can get someone to agree to pick up his salary.

 

I think Burrell should be traded, IF the Phillies find good value in return. Otherwise they shouldn't trade him just for the sake of trading him. Looking at the upcoming free agent market, I can't see a single player worth paying top dollar for.

 

Now a quick question. I have no basis on this, but to me it seems the Phillies have too many left handed hitters in their line-up. Are there any statistics on what the best mix of lefty vs. righty hitters is? Basing this on 27 years of watching baseball, I feel that a left handed hitter does worse against a left handed pitcher for some reason than a righty vs. a righty.

 

Usually lefty-lefty matchups are considered tougher, but the last three seasons the Phils have had better luck there than when matching right-handers. That's an illusion I think, because when the Phils matched lefties it was Thome, Abreu, Howard, Utley, etc. at the plate.

 

The proper mix depends on a number of factors. The Yankees, for example, would want to carry more left handed batters while the Red Sox would benefit from a more right-handed lineup, due to their respective ballparks. A left-handed lineup does run into problems if you don't have a righty to prevent the opposing manager from running out his lefty specialist for a full inning. I don't think, however, that it is necessarily wise strategy to keep a righty over a lefty just because he hits from that side.

 

In the Phillies' case, I don't think trading Burrell and leaving mostly lefties is a big problem, because there apparently are not many lefties in the league. The Phillies have been in 94 games so far, and 80 of them have been against left-handed starters (they're 6-8 against lefties, FWIW).

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

2. David Dellucci

Miscast as a pinch hitter, needs regular playing time with his ability.

 

Would you take less for Abreu and/or Burrell if you could get Dellucci signed to at least a one year extension and could plug him in?

 

Also, if they move either one and get the almighty salary relief would you really bust slot and sign Kyle Gibson and Josh Thrailkill? It would mark a big financial commitment to this draft, but if you can essentially buy two high round picks with found money then why not.

1. Burrell yes, Abreu no. Here's a fun stat. Dellucci's career OPS against righties is one point higher than Pat Burrell's.

 

2. No. Matt White (not the SWB pitcher) just retired due to arm injuries. He was paid $10 Million after the 1997 draft. The list of draftees who were paid huge bonuses and crashed is long, and it's just too risky a proposition to devote serious money.

[CanadianChris 0]

Is there any chance that the winner of the AL West will be at or below .500 at season's end?

 

While I'm thinking of it, do you think the Dodgers can rebound from the St. Louis debacle and get back in the race?

[Guest NYankees]

Is there any chance that the winner of the AL West will be at or below .500 at season's end?

 

 

It could be 1994 all over again!

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Is there any chance that the winner of the AL West will be at or below .500 at season's end?

Minimal, because they play a healthy portion of their schedules against each other.

 

While I'm thinking of it, do you think the Dodgers can rebound from the St. Louis debacle and get back in the race?

 

Absolutely. The worst tendancy of sports talk is to take the last few games as a sole determint of a team's ability. Every team looks bad at some point.

[Guest cardsfan31]

what are the chances of Pujols repeating as MVP

[devo 0]

Liriano has a pretty good shot to win the AL Cy Young this year. Has there ever been an instance in which the winner of the Cy Young (or, for that matter, the MVP), didn't make the All-Star team in the year he won it?

[treble 0]

I know Pat Hentgen didn't make the all-star team in '96.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Liriano has a pretty good shot to win the AL Cy Young this year. Has there ever been an instance in which the winner of the Cy Young (or, for that matter, the MVP), didn't make the All-Star team in the year he won it?

 

Liriano did end up making the team as a replacement. Travis Hafner did not, however, and he's been the MVP thus far (at least in my eyes.)