Ask Al: Part Two!

[Vern Gagne 0]

How about Mike Cameron and Carlos Beltran, colliding in the OF last year.

[Chuck Woolery 0]

al:

 

are the devil rays better than their record would indicate, and do they have a chance at making a serious playoff run in the next five years?

[Bruiser Chong 0]

- Is batting average the most overrated offensive stat?

 

- Does Carlos Zambrano get any serious Cy Young consideration? At his current rate, he'll pile up 17 or 18 wins, which is impressive since he went winless in April. It's made even more impressive by the fact he plays for a team that could easily lose 100 games this season.

[Masked Man of Mystery 0]

1 What in the heck happened to Keith Foulke that he lost all effectiveness as a closer?

2 What do you think of looking into stretching Papelbon into a starter?

3 Are the Red Sox screwed due to having to use so many young pitchers so suddenly?

[Bored 0]

Is Derek Jeter the best player of all-time and is Alex Rodriguez the worst player of all-time? And if you your answer is "no" to both then how do you feel about spending the afterlife in the the firery pits of hell?

[TheDevilAndGodAreRagingInsideMe 0]

Where do all of your stats come from?

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

al:

 

are the devil rays better than their record would indicate, and do they have a chance at making a serious playoff run in the next five years?

Right now they are where they should be. They have some very nice pieces in the minors and offensively, could be as good as any team in the league in a couple years. Whether they make a playoff run depends on how much pitching they develop. Kazmir's a great start.

 

- Is batting average the most overrated offensive stat?

 

- Does Carlos Zambrano get any serious Cy Young consideration? At his current rate, he'll pile up 17 or 18 wins, which is impressive since he went winless in April. It's made even more impressive by the fact he plays for a team that could easily lose 100 games this season.

1. It's not. Look at Tony Gwynn. His batting average tells you something important about his hitting ability. I think RBIs are the most overrated "official" statistic, followed by strikeouts.

 

2. I think he's in the running considering his record is one of the best in the NL. He won't beat out Brandon Webb though unless he lowers his ERA.

[CanadianChris 0]

Ray Chapman getting killed by a pitched ball. About a dozen more have died in the minors, but none in the last 50 years.

 

Awesome.

 

What about any recent injuries that could possibly be on video.

 

Sorry for the stupid questions.

The only one that comes to mind is Buck Martinez making a double play on a broken leg in 1985. Recently, Aaron Rowand's was pretty gruesome.

Two words: Dave Dravecky.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

1 What in the heck happened to Keith Foulke that he lost all effectiveness as a closer?

2 What do you think of looking into stretching Papelbon into a starter?

3 Are the Red Sox screwed due to having to use so many young pitchers so suddenly?

1. Injuries.

 

2. I think if he can start and pitch effectively, he absolutely should be moved into the rotation next year. A starter is much more valuable than a closer.

 

3. Not at all.

[Vern Gagne 0]

al:

 

are the devil rays better than their record would indicate, and do they have a chance at making a serious playoff run in the next five years?

Right now they are where they should be. They have some very nice pieces in the minors and offensively, could be as good as any team in the league in a couple years. Whether they make a playoff run depends on how much pitching they develop. Kazmir's a great start.

 

- Is batting average the most overrated offensive stat?

 

- Does Carlos Zambrano get any serious Cy Young consideration? At his current rate, he'll pile up 17 or 18 wins, which is impressive since he went winless in April. It's made even more impressive by the fact he plays for a team that could easily lose 100 games this season.

1. It's not. Look at Tony Gwynn. His batting average tells you something important about his hitting ability. I think RBIs are the most overrated "official" statistic, followed by strikeouts.

 

2. I think he's in the running considering his record is one of the best in the NL. He won't beat out Brandon Webb though unless he lowers his ERA.

 

Follow up questions.

 

1.Why do you believe RBI's are overrated

[Kahran Ramsus 0]

Follow Follow Up Question:

 

Where do you rank Runs Scored compared to RBIs as an individual statistic?

[TheDevilAndGodAreRagingInsideMe 0]

If the most important aspect of hitting is to get on base for the next guy to knock you in, then doesn't that make the RBI an important statistic?

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

If the most important aspect of hitting is to get on base for the next guy to knock you in, then doesn't that make the RBI an important statistic?

 

Al will have a good explanation I'm sure, but I'd like to jump in on this one. RBIs and Runs Scored are a team based stat and have little reflection of the actual player's ability. The ability to drive in runs is entirely dependent on the number of opportunities presented. It doesn't really indicate how the person hit with runners on, just that a lot of runners made it home. Joe Carter routinely had 100+ RBI seasons, but he wasn't much of a hitter. A better representation would be to look at a player's avg./obp./slg. with RISP. Then we know what the actual player's performance with scoring opportunities.

[TheDevilAndGodAreRagingInsideMe 0]

Basically, getting RBIs is the most important thing. Except RBIs are meaningless.

[treble 0]

RBIs are a dumb way to determine how valuable a single player is because it's mostly dependant on the players who hit before them.

[Guest]

The ability to drive in runs is entirely dependent on the number of opportunities presented.

That's the way I look at the stat. Runs scored can show a players ability to get on base, but that's really all from an individual side.

[Precious Roy 0]

RISP OPS is probably a better indicator

[CanadianChris 0]

RISP OPS is probably a better indicator

Probably, but you're still looking at a small sample size for those further down in the order due to fewer opportunities.

 

Any stat that's outside the player's immediate control to a large degree is not useful as a measurement of ability. RBIs for batters and wins for pitchers are the two most obvious.

[vivalaultra 0]

Quick! Before it happens...what do you see happening to Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Lee, and Miguel Tejada? And who would my beloved Stros be best off acquiring?

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

To answer the querys regarding RBIs. Yes, the main reason is that it is a team dependent statistic. When you look at offensive statistics, Batting average, OBP, slugging percentage, even walks, doubles, etc. are measuring something the batter did directly. Only RBIs, runs scored and sacrifices are really team dependant. Sacrifice flies are less revealing than anything else, but no one pays much attention to them anyway.

 

Runs scored are the same way, but the batter does have more control, because he can use his baserunning skills. But people don't overrate runs scored the way they do RBIs.

[Precious Roy 0]

To answer the querys regarding RBIs. Yes, the main reason is that it is a team dependent statistic. When you look at offensive statistics, Batting average, OBP, slugging percentage, even walks, doubles, etc. are measuring something the batter did directly. Only RBIs, runs scored and sacrifices are really team dependant. Sacrifice flies are less revealing than anything else, but no one pays much attention to them anyway.

 

Runs scored are the same way, but the batter does have more control, because he can use his baserunning skills. But people don't overrate runs scored the way they do RBIs.

 

Devil's advocate....aren't OBP and BA directly affected by the guys surrounding a hitter in the lineup? And isn't slugging affected by parks? I'm sure there are crazy stats out there that take park factors and lineup protection and the opposing pitchers and other shit into account as well though

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Devil's advocate....aren't OBP and BA directly affected by the guys surrounding a hitter in the lineup? And isn't slugging affected by parks? I'm sure there are crazy stats out there that take park factors and lineup protection and the opposing pitchers and other shit into account as well though

 

The effect of lineup protection is minimal, if not non-existant. Yes, statistics are effected by their run-scoring environment. The effects are across the board, so they don't make one statistic more or less important than the other.

[the pinjockey 0]

Dear Ask Al,

 

Do you have the same nagging sense of dread that I do about the next 48 hours? I am thinking there is a little too much smoke about a lesser Abreu deal for there not to be some fire nearby.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Dear Ask Al,

 

Do you have the same nagging sense of dread that I do about the next 48 hours? I am thinking there is a little too much smoke about a lesser Abreu deal for there not to be some fire nearby.

For some reason this is the most fun deadline as a Phillies fan that I can remember. I guess that's the minor league fan in me. Anyway, you'll hear a lot of rumors and speculation that are maybe 10% fact. Abreu's under contract through 2007 and there is no reason whatsoever for Pat Gillick to accept a lesser offer because of the deadline. If a deal isn't done, there's still the offseason.

[KingPK 0]

What's your stance on left/right-handed specialists (i.e. Mike Myers)coming out of the bullpen for one batter and being replaced right after, no matter the outcome of the at-bat? Are managers using them correctly or is it just a waste of a bullpen spot?

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

What's your stance on left/right-handed specialists (i.e. Mike Myers)coming out of the bullpen for one batter and being replaced right after, no matter the outcome of the at-bat? Are managers using them correctly or is it just a waste of a bullpen spot?

It's a good question. I think having a lefty reliever on the roster solely for one at bat is a waste. Right handers have a career OPB of .408 against Mike Myers, and the last two years he has made them look like Rogers Hornsby. I do think there's an advantage to playing the matchups though. In many cases, particularly David Ortiz, the difference between a righty and a lefty are staggering.

 

The question is whether or not you have the pitching horses. The Phils, who have Arthur Rhodes, Rheal Cormier and Aaron Fultz, are well served by matching up batters. However, if you're taking out your better relievers to put in your 12th man because he happens to be a lefty, you're wasting time and making an artificial demand for pitching.

 

IMO, this is one of the most enjoyable aspects of minor league baseball. Managers almost never fret about matchups.

[Guest]

Who do you think is the most likely candidate to win Rookie of the Year in the National League?

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Who do you think is the most likely candidate to win Rookie of the Year in the National League?

Ryan Zimmerman. Suddenly my pick for the 2009 USA team doesn't look too shabby.

[tominator89 0]

What do you think the chances are of Utley's hitting streak existing beyond tomorrow's double header?

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

What do you think the chances are of Utley's hitting streak existing beyond tomorrow's double header?

About 47.6%.