LWIB 8/14-8/20

[naiwf 0]

Joe Sheehan has a strange article up at BP.com about this year's MVP race. What about it is strange, you ask? He doesn't even have David Ortiz in his top 5, nor does he even think of him as much of a candidate other than having added a few extra wins with his clutch hits. His top 5:

 

1. Jeter

2. Mauer

3. Santana

4. Sizemore

5. Ramirez

 

This is a perfect example of why I think sabremetrics is ruining baseball. I won't argue with Jeter, Mauer and Santana being up there at the top, but what the fuck has Grady Sizemore done that's worthy of being ahead of guys like Ramirez, Ortiz, Thome, Hafner, Halladay, Papelbon, Liriano, Verlander etc? I understand some people enjoy delving deeper into the stats, but give me a fucking break. Grady Sizemore?!?

[Bored 0]

Joe Sheehan has a strange article up at BP.com about this year's MVP race. What about it is strange, you ask? He doesn't even have David Ortiz in his top 5, nor does he even think of him as much of a candidate other than having added a few extra wins with his clutch hits. His top 5:

 

1. Jeter

2. Mauer

3. Santana

4. Sizemore

5. Ramirez

He's not on mine either, at least through 8/5. Sizemore in 4th though is fairly bizarre. I had Ortiz 6th in my most recent list behind Hafner, Mauer, Jeter, Ramirez, and Thome.

[Hawk 34 0]

I've been to 10 Reds games, 2 Indians games and a couple minors in Dayton this season. I miss being a season ticket holder.

 

There's an outside chance I'll attend a Pirates game next month. I'd rather just take a tour of the ball park and avoid actually watching the Pirates play.

[the max 0]

All minor league games for us. Fort Myers Miracle about 10 times. In the community calendar they have coupons for "Buy 1 ticket, Get 1 ticket FREE!" I love minor league baseball. I'm still waiting to catch a ball though. Considering there are only 95 people at the games, I'm surprised I haven't gotten one yet.

 

We were going to go to the Red Sox v. Marlins game on my birfday, but we went to Busch Gardens instead. Considering Tampa to Miami is about a five hour drive...no thanks. We had plans to go to a Marlins or D-Rays game, but with the situation at the apartment complex...I don't think that'll be happening.

I've only caught one ball in over 60 games the last two years. Granted I'm usually in a relatively difficult place for a ball to land. Beyond AAA the stands are set up in a way where not many baseballs land. It takes a fair bit of luck.

 

It does take luck, but I thought that my odds would be increased from me and the gal being 2 of the 95 people there (we counted at the last game...there were 93 people in the stands).

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

I just caught Joe Sheehan's article myself, and I agree with naiwf that this causes some of the problems that people have with sabermetrics in baseball. Bill James 20 years ago wrote about statistical idocy, the complete inability to look at anything you can't measure in a statistic. Regardless of the circumstances or what you think about clutch ability, the fact is that Ortiz has had several big hits this season. And while winning teams isn't a necessity, it's ridiculous to put Sizemore #4 when he's not the best player on a sub-.500 team. Defense? They're 10th in runs allowed!

 

Another problem, Sheehan lists FRAR (Fielding Runs Above Average) in his table. Travis Hafner scores 0 (an average fielding DH), David Ortiz scores 0 (ditto), Manny Ramirez scores -4, and Vernon Wells scores 1, putting him in that category. That would make Wells an average center fielder. I don't think I have to tell you that Wells is probably a slightly better fielder than the other three. That's the major quibble I usually have with Baseball Prospectus. Their primary method is to develop a statistic and say, "by this statistic, player X is the best player. That makes us right."

 

Realistically, the roadblock Sheehan runs into is that their statistics set the bar higher for DHs by using offensive baselines. So if David Ortiz outhits Grady Sizemore, their metrics say that Sizemore is a better hitter because he plays center field. That's stupid. Moreover, when they add defense to the equation, Sizemore gets credited TWICE for playing center field.

 

In fairness to Sizemore, he's 11th in OPS in the league playing center field. I'd put him in my top 10. But Sheehan's methodology is awful. Naiwf, I would honestly recommend checking out Bill James' writing if you haven't, because he does not fall into the same traps as your more purely statistically based writers.

[naiwf 0]

I just caught Joe Sheehan's article myself, and I agree with naiwf that this causes some of the problems that people have with sabermetrics in baseball. Bill James 20 years ago wrote about statistical idocy, the complete inability to look at anything you can't measure in a statistic. Regardless of the circumstances or what you think about clutch ability, the fact is that Ortiz has had several big hits this season. And while winning teams isn't a necessity, it's ridiculous to put Sizemore #4 when he's not the best player on a sub-.500 team. Defense? They're 10th in runs allowed!

 

Another problem, Sheehan lists FRAR (Fielding Runs Above Average) in his table. Travis Hafner scores 0 (an average fielding DH), David Ortiz scores 0 (ditto), Manny Ramirez scores -4, and Vernon Wells scores 1, putting him in that category. That would make Wells an average center fielder. I don't think I have to tell you that Wells is probably a slightly better fielder than the other three. That's the major quibble I usually have with Baseball Prospectus. Their primary method is to develop a statistic and say, "by this statistic, player X is the best player. That makes us right."

 

Realistically, the roadblock Sheehan runs into is that their statistics set the bar higher for DHs by using offensive baselines. So if David Ortiz outhits Grady Sizemore, their metrics say that Sizemore is a better hitter because he plays center field. That's stupid. Moreover, when they add defense to the equation, Sizemore gets credited TWICE for playing center field.

 

In fairness to Sizemore, he's 11th in OPS in the league playing center field. I'd put him in my top 10. But Sheehan's methodology is awful. Naiwf, I would honestly recommend checking out Bill James' writing if you haven't, because he does not fall into the same traps as your more purely statistically based writers.

 

What you stated about statistical idiocy is one of my biggest issues with people who only measure things based on stats. I'm not a huge fan of "intangibles", but when Ortiz ACTUALLY wins games with clutch hits on a regular basis and you don't take that into account, but you have a formula that states such and such THEORETICALLY proves X value over player Y in situation Z and THAT is counted, it just drives me nuts. What you posted about the FRAR list is another thing. Depending on how much weight you put behind a certain stat in relation to others you can end up with Grady Sizemore being the 4th most valuable player in the super stacked AL when anyone else with two eyes would be hard pressed to list him in their top 10 just based on how many other players are having tremendous seasons in that league.

 

I guess I should probably see what James wrote because I think he understood the major problems that can arise when you base EVERYTHING on complex formulas that sometimes eliminate actual on the field results, and not on results in addition to formulas.

[Vern Gagne 0]

Could we see a split between the Bill James followers, and the people like Joe Sheehan who don't appear to look anything besides sabermetric numbers?

[naiwf 0]

Pedro really shitted the bed today. Ugh.

[UseTheSledgehammerUh 0]

Am I REALLY high or are the Phillies somehow up 12-0 on the Mets in the 5th?

[Conspiracy_Victim 0]

Well, Morgan Ensberg has left a small village stranded on the basepaths already. Although a beanball war between Zambrano and Oswalt might get interesting. I want to see Barrett's next AB against Roy just to see if he gets some high-and-tight.

[mike546 0]

Didn't see that coming.

[Bruiser Chong 0]

I think it's safe to say Zambrano's wearing down. He's held the Stros down tonight, but he's walked five already.

[Bruiser Chong 0]

Manny being Manny probably just cost the Sox a run. Sweet baserunning, guy.

[vivalaultra 0]

You'd think that getting 7 walks would translate into at least one run, but...meh. The Astros have looked positively Cub-like in run scoring situations tonite. Unless there's a dramatic late inning comeback, that's my Flowing Game Diatribe for zee nite.

[sfaJack 0]

Look at the bright side, viva: the Astros won't see Zambrano again the rest of this season!

[CanadianChris 0]

Jays/A's next Tuesday will be my only game this year. Fuck everyone associated with the Expos leaving...I went to at least 7-8 games a year when they were there.

[TheDevilAndGodAreRagingInsideMe 0]

Anyone else see the Top 3 Webgems per franchise they've been doing on BBTN? I'd like to nominate the following for the Yanks.

 

Derek Jeter - The Play - 2001 Division Series Game 3, Yanks win 1-0, win come from behind in the series to win 3-2, then beat 116 win Seattle, and make it to the 9th inning of the 7th game of the World Series

 

Derek Jeter - Crowd dive featuring bloody face - 7/1/04 vs. Boston, 12th inning, Yanks win in 13 innings and cap a sweep. Jeter leaves the game, A-Rod bumps over to short, Sheffield plays 3rd.

 

Paul O'Neill - Wall catch closes 1-0 Win - 1996 World Series Game 5 - Runner on 3rd, Luis Polonia has a long, hard, loud fly out to the warning track and O'Neill slaps the wall in celebration in the last game ever at Fulton County Stadium.

[vivalaultra 0]

Look at the bright side, viva: the Astros won't see Zambrano again the rest of this season!

 

Praise Jeebus.

[CanadianChris 0]

Anyone else see the Top 3 Webgems per franchise they've been doing on BBTN? I'd like to nominate the following for the Yanks.

 

Derek Jeter - The Play - 2001 Division Series Game 3, Yanks win 1-0, win come from behind in the series to win 3-2, then beat 116 win Seattle, and make it to the 9th inning of the 7th game of the World Series

 

Derek Jeter - Crowd dive featuring bloody face - 7/1/04 vs. Boston, 12th inning, Yanks win in 13 innings and cap a sweep. Jeter leaves the game, A-Rod bumps over to short, Sheffield plays 3rd.

 

Paul O'Neill - Wall catch closes 1-0 Win - 1996 World Series Game 5 - Runner on 3rd, Luis Polonia has a long, hard, loud fly out to the warning track and O'Neill slaps the wall in celebration in the last game ever at Fulton County Stadium.

That's cool; wish I could see that.

 

The Blue Jays' three would have to be:

 

1) Devon White's catch/near triple play in Game 3 of the 1992 World Series.

 

2) Roberto Alomar's amazing layout to catch a soft liner in shallow right field in Game 1 of the 1993 World Series.

 

3) Buck Martinez takes a throw from third and tags out a runner trying to score in a 1985 game. Oh, and he made this play after the previous runner that came in broke Martinez's leg as he was tagged out.

[treble 0]

I know I've written the Jays off at least twice in the past few weeks, but I think they might still have a chance if they have a good week here. They really should sweep the Rays with their top 3 starters going and they should at least be able to take 2 of 3 from Baltimore. Closing the gap on Boston first will be easier, with the Sox playing the Tigers before the 5 gamer against the Yankees. Best case scenario, Tigers sweep Boston while the Jays sweep Tampa and then the Sox win the 5 game series against the Yankees while the Jays take the Baltimore series. The Orioles taking a game or 2 from the Yankees would be nice, too.

 

I know this team's good enough to go on a nice run (and it seems like they might be starting one now, winning 6 of 8 after the 7 game losing streak), and now would be the best time, as Oakland's the only team with a winning record they play for the rest of the month.

[TheDevilAndGodAreRagingInsideMe 0]

Halladay vs. Tampa? OMG fantasy points plz.

[TheDevilAndGodAreRagingInsideMe 0]

Randy goes a solid 7 innings, threw 101 pitches, struck out 5 (bringing his career total to 4,503) and gave up 2 runs for his 13th win. Now his ERA is under 5!

 

Hitting stars of the game were Jeter, who was 3-5 with a homer (#10) and a double (#27), plus 2 RBI (#69 & 70) as chants of MVP filled Yankee Stadium, and Posada, who was 3-4 busting out of a career long 0-25 slump including a home run. Melky also was 3-4 with a run scored.

 

Combine the win with a Boston loss, and it's a 2 game division lead.

[Precious Roy 0]

All minor league games for us. Fort Myers Miracle about 10 times. In the community calendar they have coupons for "Buy 1 ticket, Get 1 ticket FREE!" I love minor league baseball. I'm still waiting to catch a ball though. Considering there are only 95 people at the games, I'm surprised I haven't gotten one yet.

 

We were going to go to the Red Sox v. Marlins game on my birfday, but we went to Busch Gardens instead. Considering Tampa to Miami is about a five hour drive...no thanks. We had plans to go to a Marlins or D-Rays game, but with the situation at the apartment complex...I don't think that'll be happening.

I've only caught one ball in over 60 games the last two years. Granted I'm usually in a relatively difficult place for a ball to land. Beyond AAA the stands are set up in a way where not many baseballs land. It takes a fair bit of luck.

 

When I was a kid, maybe 9, 10 years old, I actually got hit in the head by a foul ball. It was a Columbus Clippers game, and for some reason I wasn't paying attention, probably I was busy with with score sheet or concessions......but it fucking HURT! My parents escorted me out of the building and it was very traumatic

[TheDevilAndGodAreRagingInsideMe 0]

At least you got the ball...right?

[Bored 0]

A's win their 13th straight over the Mariners. Nick Swisher's two-run homer in the bottom of the 8th gives them a 5-4 lead and Ichiro gets picked off 1st for the final out of the game.

[KingPK 0]

Closing the gap on Boston first will be easier, with the Sox playing the Tigers before the 5 gamer against the Yankees. Best case scenario, Tigers sweep Boston while the Jays sweep Tampa and then the Sox win the 5 game series against the Yankees while the Jays take the Baltimore series. The Orioles taking a game or 2 from the Yankees would be nice, too.

 

I really doubt that's gonna happen because that Friday doubleheader scares the shit out of me. Boston's starting Jason Johnson and Jon Lester those two games, two guys that will probably not make it into the 6th (Lester because he's regularly getting into the 90-pitch range by the 5th (he may have 90 by the 4th with the patience this Yankee lineup has) and Jason Johnson....well...because he's Jason Johnson). That means the bullpen will be used for 8 innings in one day which will probably burn them out and make them ineffective should Schilling, Beckett or Wells get cuffed around as well.

 

Bottom line: Thank God this series is at Fenway because the offense will need all the runs they can get.

[TheDevilAndGodAreRagingInsideMe 0]

Dear Media:

 

Please stop congratulating one Alex Rodriguez for his "clutch" sacrafice fly in the 7th inning of a tie game with the bases loaded. This ball went high, deep, and to the warning track. a) Mr. Rodriguez had no intentions of hitting a sacrafice fly, such hits don't send outfielders crashing into walls. b) Had it been Craig Wilson, Sal Fasano, or Melky Cabrera, would you be praising them as being the hero of the game? Or do you just want to tell those ungreatful Yankee fans "SEE? He is clutch~!" about your little media darling. c) I would prefer that Alex Rodriguez, the regular cleanup hitter (5th last night) and reigning leauge MVP would put the ball into play in that situation - perhaps line a double down left field line - and score two or three at once - than trying to be the hero he so desperately wants to be and jack a grand slam but fall short and fly out. (Remember, walkoff vs. Atlanta? Still getting booed, these things aren't working out for him)

 

Sincerely,

A person with two eyes.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

You are such an annoying Yankees fan.

[The Man in Blak 0]

Could we see a split between the Bill James followers, and the people like Joe Sheehan who don't appear to look anything besides sabermetric numbers?

 

Well, there already is kind of a split, if you consider the BTF/BPro "feud" to have any legs. With a few exceptions (MGL comes to mind), most of the posters at Baseball Think Factory tend to be very reasonable about statistics and mixing that information with scouting and other anecdotal evidence.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

The problem with Baseball Prospectus is that they have too many staffers who are indignant towards traditional analysis and think the metrics they utlize are flawless. Some of the tools are phenomenal, such as PECOTA, but that is offset by others, such as their traditionally bad fielding metrics. The inability to separate the good stats from the bad in their toolbox often leads to a flawed analysis.