2006-07 MLB Offseason Thread

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Is anyone on the board a Rangers fan? The word going around is that the Red Sox are making a hard push to acquire Michael Young. Is he even available? Word is that they would move him to fill other holes in their lineup (presumably pitching). They have a stud SS prospect (Arias?) who may be able to take over starting role next year.

[vivalaultra 0]

AM 610 in Houston is reporting that Craig Biggio, to the surprise of no one, decided that no one but the Astros want a 40-year old 2nd baseman with an OPS of .700. He signed a 1 yr/$4 mill + incentives deal. I imagine the incentives will be for PAs and his 3000th hit, so it should be somewhere close to $5 million. The surprising news is that the Astros are "very close" to signing Aubrey Huff to a 3 year deal with an option for a 4th year. That's surprising because I heard that Huff turned down a contract offer at the end of the season and was dead set on testing FA. If Huff does sign, I imagine that puts him at 3rd, which makes Ensberg, he of the 100 walks and .230 batting average expendable. With that scenario, I could see Ensberg traded to either the Padres or the Phillies for either some starting pitching or Pat "The Bat", which would probably mean the Astros wouldn't get Carlos Lee, so hopefully he goes for some pitching. I'll be sad to see Ensberg leave. He'd be an ideal #2 hitter, but he's not a cleanup hitter. Whichever team he goes to, if they bat him second, he could be very valuable, and possibly could win a Gold Glove somewhere along the line.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Baseball America released their list of the top ten Yankees prospects today. Interesting to note that after having a lower-tier system the past few years, the Yankees have risen to become arguably one of the top farm systems in the majors. Hughes is probably the best pitching prospect in all of baseball.

 

Eric Duncan, their no. 1 overall prospect last year, has fallen from the list completely. The 16-year-old Venezuelan catcher they signed to the $2 million signing bonus also misses the cut after his brutal mini-camp.

 

1. Philip Hughes, rhp

2. Jose Tabata, of

3. Dellin Betances, rhp

4. Joba Chamberlain, rhp

5. Ian Kennedy, rhp

6. Chris Garcia, rhp

7. Tyler Clippard, rhp

8. J. Brent Cox, rhp

9. Mark Melancon, rhp

10. Brett Gardner, of

 

In other news, today is the deadline to submit bids for Daisuke Matsuzaka. Seibu will then have 4 days to accept or reject the bid, at which time we will know who won the negotiating rights. Not much buzz on who was expected to win the bidding, but rumor has it the Cubs and Mets upped their bids big time towards the end (no real source on those rumors though).

[Mik 0]

I think you're substantially overstating by making them one of the top farm systems in baseball. I can think of 6 off the top of my head without even analyzing it (D-Backs, Dodgers, Marlins, D-Rays, Angels, Rockies) and I'm sure by the time you sort it out they are middle of the pack.

 

They've certainly improved a fair bit, though.

 

In other news, here are some of Bill James projections from his latest handbook for career achievements:

 

Career Assessments

• 756 home runs: Bonds -- 97 percent chance of reaching the mark, Rodriguez 31 percent, Albert Pujols 22 percent, Andruw Jones 16 percent

 

• 2,298 RBI: Rodriguez 27 percent, Pujols 16 percent, A. Jones 12 percent, Manny Ramirez 12 percent

 

• 2,296 runs scored: Rodriguez 25 percent, Pujols 14 percent, Bonds 14 percent

 

• 793 doubles: Miguel Cabrera 15 percent

 

• 4,000 hits: Derek Jeter 6 percent, Cabrera 5 percent, Rodriguez 5 percent

 

• Projected career homers: Bonds 884, Adam Dunn 618, Ryan Howard 711, Vladimir Guerrero 633, Troy Glaus 539, A. Jones 677, Pujols 867, A. Rodriguez 772, Jim Thome 619

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Those career homer projections look awfully high to me. Bonds will never even get close to 800. Ryan Howard I'd consider a long shot to even get 500, let alone 700. Pujols and A-Rod will probably get 500-600, but probably not much more than that.

[MarvinisaLunatic 0]

They need both. They have pitching prospects at least.

 

Are Hayden Penn and Adam Loewen supposed to be ready this year? Cause that would really help if they are.

 

I figure Loewen, Penn, Benson and Bedard are four guys you can start with but they need a one. Benson is a three at best (if he even decides he wants to return and he isn't worth as much as he thinks he is), Loewen and Penn are HUGE question marks still, Bedard is still pretty good and easily the 2. I heard Maddux but seriously, there is just no way he is above a 3 at this point. And something tells me the AL would eat him alive.

 

Mulder (or is it Zito? Either way) I guess is the popular guy but no way he comes to Baltimore and I'm not crazy about him anyway. Cabrera is still another question mark and is just way too inconsistent to risk. I don't know, let him compete for the fifth spot I suppose and put either him, Penn or Loewen in the bullpen.

 

The O's need a lot of everything: Bullpen, another bat to protect Miggy, and starting pitching.

 

Right field can be between Markakis and Gibbons with Markakis being the easy favorite. Or hell, Markakis can play left and they can find someone else to take over right since Gibbons is a nightmare as a fielder (and overall really). Not Shef, Bonds or Sosa cause those are living disasters. I'm fine with Patterson in center although his strikeouts still give me headaches. First base is still a hole, while the rest of the infield is very good.

 

Baltimore really isn't in as bad of shape as I thought, just the young pitchers need to develop now and the bullpen needs to be fixed quickly with guys who know what the hell they are doing when they come in.

 

Bedard/Benson/Carbrera/Loewen/Penn or Lopez is a pretty good rotation..Bedard is easily the #1, Benson was a good pitcher last year, most of his loses were by 1 or 2 runs when the offense sputtered. Cabrera got better towards the end of the season with his control when he started wearing glasses. I like Loewen a lot more than Penn, and if were up to me I would like at least one FA pitcher to keep from having Penn in the rotation..

 

Ideally they need bullpen help the most, Chris Ray was awesome but the rest was just a mish mash of guys being called up and down from AAA Ottawa (now being moved to Norfolk VA btw). If they fix the bullpen, I bet they could get away with not signing another pitcher as long as they add some offense..

 

Markakis/Patterson/Gibbons is a good OF, but Ive about given up on Gibbons..he can't stay healthy. Ideally they get a big bat from the OF but that doesn't leave many options aside from ones that are bad, the best one is probably Carlos Lee but they'll never be able to get him as cheap as PA is. 3b/SS/2b/C are set, 1B is still a huge question mark.

[Fökai 0]

Howard has to average fifty homeruns a year for the next thirteen seasons. I know it's too early to make projections on either end, but doesn't that seem a bit implausible?

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

711 home runs for Howard? He would need to hit 629 home runs the rest of his career the rest of the way. No player in the history of baseball has hit that many home runs after age 26. Albert Pujols would also need to set a post-26 record to reach his mark. And 150 more home runs for Bonds? The player who hit the most career home runs after 42 is Carlton Fisk, and he had 40.

 

I think James has become prone to putting his name on projections for his friends at BIS, but his heart is clearly not into it. I don't think he would bother if it didn't sell books.

[The Man in Blak 0]

I think the meme about the Yankees' cupboard being empty over the last few years is a bit of a myth, driven primarily by the failures of prospects that they've traded away over the last few years (Brandon Claussen comes to mind, but there are others). The Yankees have actually had success with recent callups; Robinson Cano is one of the best second basemen in the league after just a couple of years of experience, and Melky Cabrera made contributions this year as well.

[Brett Favre 0]

Not to mention Chien-Ming Wang. I hope the Yankees decide to have their 5th starter be either Hughes or Clippard; by July or so, if not in the beginning of the year.

[2GOLD 0]

Rodrigo is not a starter, he's too iffy from start to start. He works much better as an relief guy. Bedard is good but he would excel being a two more than the guy in a rotation.

Gibbons is just not any good. He swallowed the injury bug.

 

If they can find another solid outfielder, a strong starter, some bullpen guys and a first baseman then they can make a quick turnaround.

[Brett Favre 0]

Padres hire Bud Black.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

The Orioles are better off than most teams when it comes to pitching. Bedard is turning into a legitimate ace, they have several other capable starters, and the back end of the bullpen is set with Ray. I wouldn't say their pitching is any worse than the Cardinals, and they just won the World Series. However, they are a mess with their hitting. They need substantial upgrades at several positions, and it's not going to happen in the current free agent climate. Trading Tejada might be an option, if it affords them the opportunity to look at mutiple talents that can help this team now and in the future. They aren't close to Boston, NY or Toronto right now, and Tampa Bay is probably ready to pass them up as well.

[The Man in Blak 0]

According to the San-Diego Union Tribune, the Padres have traded Josh Barfield to the Indians.

 

http://www.signonsandiego.com/sports/padre...n9padtrade.html

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

I might need to look a little deeper into the two prospects they got, but on the surface that seems like a really stupid trade for the Padres. I know that it is just probably a precursor to trading for Marcus Giles, but Barfield is probably on his way to becoming quite the talent. As for the Indians, they are putting together a team that could be unbelievably good in a couple of years.

[The Man in Blak 0]

Kouzmanoff is the big prospect in the deal and he'll presumably fill in their 3B slot. He's not great with the glove, but he can hit pretty well - the ZiPs projection for him is .286/.342/.465, which isn't too bad at all.

 

I think it's a decent trade for both teams. Barfield is good, but he's got a ways to go in his development (it couldn't hurt him to take a walk, for example) and his presence on the roster gets Luna back to the super-utility role that he excelled at for a short time in St. Louis. Kouzmanoff is a young and cheap solution to the third base problem in San Diego and Barfield's departure opens the door for a Marcus Giles acquisition.

[USC Wuz Robbed! 0]

Kouzmanoff is the big prospect in the deal and he'll presumably fill in their 3B slot. He's not great with the glove, but he can hit pretty well - the ZiPs projection for him is .286/.342/.465, which isn't too bad at all.

 

I think it's a decent trade for both teams. Barfield is good, but he's got a ways to go in his development (it couldn't hurt him to take a walk, for example) and his presence on the roster gets Luna back to the super-utility role that he excelled at for a short time in St. Louis. Kouzmanoff is a young and cheap solution to the third base problem in San Diego and Barfield's departure opens the door for a Marcus Giles acquisition.

 

I live in San Diego, and I agree with cheech. This was a stupid trade. Now my White Sox gotta face Barfield more often, dammit.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Bidding ended at 5PM today on Matsuzaka's posting rights. Rumor has it that the we might know the winning bid sometime tonight or tomorrow. Yankees have already confirmed that they made a bid, but the Red Sox and the Mets will neither confirm nor deny that they have. Word out of Japan this afternoon was that the posting might be under $20 million instead of $30-$40 that was expected, but it's all a crapshoot at this point. We really don't know anything, which makes this entire post somewhat irrelevant, but whatever it's a big news story.

[devo 0]

Word out of Japan this afternoon was that the posting might be under $20 million instead of $30-$40 that was expected, but it's all a crapshoot at this point.

 

That wouldn't surprise me, as I've heard that the respective teams had soured somewhat on Matsuzaka after the initial excitement. I'm almost positive that the Mets have made a bid, but I doubt they'll win. I don't think Minaya's enamored enough with the guy to throw all sorts of money at him.

[vivalaultra 0]

I'd like to see somebody outta left field win the bidding...like the Pirates or the Rockies or something.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Some outlets are reporting that the Yankees have won with a bid of $27 million. That's not confirmed, but certainly sounds plausible. Seibu has the bid in hand now, and could announce as early as tomorrow as to whether or not it will be accpeted.

[naiwf 0]

If the Mets bid, I'm guessing Wilpon only let Minaya go up to $10 mil just to make it seem as though they wanted this guy. If the Yankees win the bid, I'm hoping he's the next Irabu or Nomo and not a superstar.

[Guest NYankees]

Well Nomo was a superstar for his first couple of years and then fell off the face of the earth.

[Guest Felonies!]

The Astrobacks!

[vivalaultra 0]

Those look like the knock-off jerseys for teams that you buy at like...the flea market...or Wal-Mart.

 

I guess the Astros will just have to expand on their set of: white/white, grey/grey, white/grey, red/white, red/grey, pinstripe/pinstripe, pinstripe/white, pinstripe/grey, throwback rainbow that they have now to distinguish themselves.

[Mik 0]

Well Nomo was a superstar for his first couple of years and then fell off the face of the earth.

 

Not to mention he has thrown two no-hitters. If this guy can provide half the impact Nomo did then he's worth the money.

[naiwf 0]

http://www.baseball-reference.com/n/nomohi01.shtml

 

Nomo's numbers were never at the superstar level after his rookie year. The Dodgers also didn't have to bid $25-30 million just to begin to bargain for a contract. As a matter of fact it took Nomo 9-10 years to make $25 million. Matsuzaka will cost that much before Boras even "sits down" at the negotiation table.

[Guest Smues]

Don't forget ISHII MANIA!!!``@@!@!@!!! in 2002 that lasted like, 2 months?

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

But you have to remember that even though it costs $20 million plus to negotiate, it doesn't cost you draft picks, players or prospects. It also doesn't count towards the luxury tax. So yes, it is a lot of money up front to give out for an unsure thing, but it could probably be made up easily with increased revenue from the Japanese market.

 

I know hindsight is 20/20 and all, but this guy is projected to be a much better ballplayer than any of the previous Japanese transfers. He'll probably never reach the expectations being set for him, but scouts and statheads alike seem to think this guy is a top 15 starter right out of the gate. If that's true, he will be best pitcher on the FA market for a long time.

 

Look at it this way, let's say Justin Verlander or Jerad Weaver or Francisco Liriano was a free agent this offseason. How much would you pay for them? Young pitcher with a little bit of success against major leaguers and out of this world stuff. How high would you go to lock that player up his peak years?

[Guest NYankees]

But you have to remember that even though it costs $20 million plus to negotiate, it doesn't cost you draft picks, players or prospects. It also doesn't count towards the luxury tax. So yes, it is a lot of money up front to give out for an unsure thing, but it could probably be made up easily with increased revenue from the Japanese market.

 

I know hindsight is 20/20 and all, but this guy is projected to be a much better ballplayer than any of the previous Japanese transfers. He'll probably never reach the expectations being set for him, but scouts and statheads alike seem to think this guy is a top 15 starter right out of the gate. If that's true, he will be best pitcher on the FA market for a long time.

 

Look at it this way, let's say Justin Verlander or Jerad Weaver or Francisco Liriano was a free agent this offseason. How much would you pay for them? Young pitcher with a little bit of success against major leaguers and out of this world stuff. How high would you go to lock that player up his peak years?

 

 

Excellent points! They would all get minimum 10 million per season on the open market. Nomo started off well and then fell off the face of the earth. He also had a couple of decent seasons during his last tenure with the Dodgers.

 

As far as revenue, I cant even imagine how much money the Yankees made off of the Matsui deal. I just wonder what the limit of revenue from the Japanese market is going to be if they get the pitcher as well.