2006-07 MLB Offseason Thread

[Bruiser Chong 0]

derosa is supposed to be the starting 2nd baseman, i guess.

Does this mean the Ronny Cedeno experiment's over then?

[The Man in Blak 0]

If they stuff Theriot onto the bench for DeRosa everyday and leave Jones out there to dry against LHPs, 2007 is going to be a long year for Cubs fans.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

The Red Sox met with Adam Eaton this afternoon to offer him a contract. Yesterday they extended offers to two other pitchers, although Theo did not reveal any names (rumored to be Justin Speier and Eric Gagne... but that doesn't seem like the Sox M.O. to me - they never sign Type A free agents).

 

I'm glad to see that the team isn't pussyfooting around this offseason. They have holes and they are trying to fill them quickly. I think they've learned their lesson after the past two offseasons when they tried to get too cute in addressing the team's needs.

[Guest Felonies!]

If they stuff Theriot onto the bench for DeRosa everyday and leave Jones out there to dry against LHPs, 2007 is going to be a long year for Cubs fans.

Probably what happens. Who was dumb enough to believe McDonough when he said "we WILL win the World Series!" last month, besides the feeble minds at www.northsidebaseball.com? We'll win more than 66 games, I'd have to think, but they still won't contend for even the wild card, even/especially if our new center fielder is Alfonso Soriano. He'll regress to the mean because he's over 30 and highly compensated, and there will be some real adventures in center field, adventures the likes of which the world has not seen since Rick Ankiel practically threw a wild pitch across the Mississippi River.

[vivalaultra 0]

With the Mark DeRosa signing it seems that the Cubs are liking FA Texas Rangers who had an inexplicable career year in 2007...paging Gary Matthews, Jr...

 

Actually, I think GMJ would be a great deal better than Juan "Hop Throw to the Cutoff Man Even If He's Standing Three Feet Away" Pierre.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

What did Trevor Hoffman do to warrant consideration? Was this a lifetime achievement vote? His year was okay, but nothing special. He wasn't even the best reliever in the league (Billy Wagner was much better). And no votes for Bronson Arroyo? Strange.

 

It's entirely random. Some sportswriter notes that a closer been clutch that year, writes a column, and a bandwagon is started. In most cases, the pitcher led the league in saves.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Cleveland Plain Dealer is reporting that the Tampa Bay Devil Rays won the posting for 3B Akinori Iwamura. Obviously in a year where Matsuzaka came out, he got little press, but he's a power hitter with a little bit of speed and defense. Probably will struggle a bit in adjusting to big league pitching, but a nice score for the D-Rays.

 

Seibu is supposed to have their press conferenc at 8ET. Likely just a formality in reporting acceptance of the Red Sox $42 million bid, but you never know.

[naiwf 0]

What the hell were the Mets thinking giving Duque 2 years @ $6 million PER? That blog link made it seem like it was 2 years for $6 million total. That one was acceptable, the actual deal is not.

 

This team as of now is looking like an 83 or 84 win team that misses the WC by about 4 or 5 games at best. If they don't re-up with Glavine or get Zito instead that'll dip to about 77 or 78 wins. Ridiculous.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

It is official that the Red Sox have won the rights to Daisuke Matsuzaka. Final bid is being reported as $51.1 million(!), much higher than anyone expected. They have from now until December 15th to ink a deal.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2662193

[Brett Favre 0]

So its going to be around 100 million dollars for a starting pitcher. So why couldn't you guys make that Abreu trade again?

[Guest NYankees]

It is official that the Red Sox have won the rights to Daisuke Matsuzaka. Final bid is being reported as $51.1 million(!), much higher than anyone expected. They have from now until December 15th to ink a deal.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2662193

 

 

I told you earlier today that Bill Madden of the NY Daily News said it was going to be a 50 million dollar bid and you didn't want to believe it. What kind of Wins Total, ERA and opponents batting average against and Whip is D Mat going to have to justify a contract that is essentialy going to be a 20 million per year contract. This is after you add in how much the Red Sox paid in the posting. It's funny to think that only 5 years ago the Mariners only paid 13 million to win the Ichiro posting and now the Red Sox are blowing the market way out by paying over 50 million for D Mat. I can only imagine how much teams are going to have to pay in the future for posting fees. At least you cant blame the Yankees for ever setting the market price.

[Guest NYankees]

So its going to be around 100 million dollars for a starting pitcher. So why couldn't you guys make that Abreu trade again?

 

 

I think it was due to the fact that the trade would have put them over the Salary Cap and they would have had to pay luxury tax.

[vivalaultra 0]

Well, I guess it'll be either the Astros or Yankees for Roger Clemens, as there's no way they'd be able to afford him with that ludicrous $50 million bid for a pitcher who has never pitched a game in the majors. I understand that Matsuzake projects to be good...great, even, but he's gonna have to win 25 games and have an ERA less than 1 to justify that kind of yen.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

The Red Sox have one of, if not the most intelligent front offices/ownership groups in the major leagues. I don't want to blindly say that $50 million is smart, but I guarantee that if they went that high they have done their homework. It's already been reported in mulitple places that this is one piece of a larger expansion project into Asia for the Red Sox. If that's the case, it's startup capital in a foreign investment, not a player.

 

In addition, spending money in a posting is far different than spending on a regular salary. The money does not count towards the luxury tax. The expense also comes out of their bottom line for revenue sharing. It is also not illegal for Seibu to kick back some of the posting to Boston as a sort of "goodwill" to ensure the signing. All told, between this and the fact that signing Dice-K opens up a number of foreign revenue streams, the actual signing could be the steal of the offseason. Zito wants 6/$100 million and he's a #2. Matsuzaka has 4 plus pitches that he throws hard and for strikes. But time will tell, I guess.

[vivalaultra 0]

I could see paying Ztio that much more than I can see paying $50 million just to NEGOTIATE with someone that'll end up making more than $100 million/6 yrs, most likely...especially when the guy's never pitched in the American major leagues. It's probably petty, but Matsuzaka's only pitched over 200 innings once, this year, and he threw 9 wild pitches. Other than that, though, his stats are, admittedly great, but still there's the unknown factor. Anybody got any projections on how a 14-3 record with a 2.30 ERA translates from Japan to the US?

 

And was it ever conclusively figured out if Matsuzaka throws the gyroball or not? I'd only pay that much money for him if he threw the gyro.

[naiwf 0]

My gut says Daisuke goes about 15-11 next year with a 4+ ERA and gets lit up by the Yankees at least once.

[CanadianChris 0]

It's probably petty, but Matsuzaka's only pitched over 200 innings once, this year

That's quite petty, actually, since the Japanese season is sixteen games shorter than the MLB season.

[vivalaultra 0]

Yeah, I didn't consider that in my initial posting. I'm not good at math...so...let's see, he made 28 starts and threw 15 complete games, so how many innings does he average a start?

[CanadianChris 0]

If he pitched over 200 innings, he averaged over seven innings per start.

[Guest]

The Red Sox met with Adam Eaton this afternoon to offer him a contract. Yesterday they extended offers to two other pitchers, although Theo did not reveal any names (rumored to be Justin Speier and Eric Gagne... but that doesn't seem like the Sox M.O. to me - they never sign Type A free agents).

 

I'm glad to see that the team isn't pussyfooting around this offseason. They have holes and they are trying to fill them quickly.

Holes on the 60 day DL, lolz.

[KingPK 0]

That bid converts into 6 billion Yen for the Lions.

 

Eh, why not? They obviously see something in the guy and they can either get the money back if they can't sign him or earn it back with a "Big Papi vs. Godzilla" movie.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Other than that, though, his stats are, admittedly great, but still there's the unknown factor. Anybody got any projections on how a 14-3 record with a 2.30 ERA translates from Japan to the US?

 

Further Comparables

Beyond the Clemens comparison, the next most-comparable pitchers over the last four years include Roy Halladay, Brandon Webb, Chris Carpenter, Jason Schmidt, Josh Beckett, Pedro Martinez, Tim Hudson and Jake Peavy. In other words, a short list that includes most of the true right-handed rotation aces in the game over the past four seasons.

 

Starting pitchers with a better translated four-year NERA than Matsuzaka's 3.37: Johan Santana 2.84, Roger Clemens 3.11, Roy Halladay 3.21, Roy Oswalt 3.29, Chris Carpenter 3.31, Pedro Martinez 3.35.

 

In PERA, Matsuzaka has a 3.41. Beaten by: Santana 3.02, Curt Schilling 3.23, Martinez 3.26, Clemens 3.30, Ben Sheets 3.32, Halladay 3.40, Oswalt 3.40.

 

The only pitcher I would say he seems to be clearly behind is Santana. I think Clemens has been ahead, but I'm not sure you can continue to project that at a coming age-44 season. It's also safe to put Halladay and Oswalt ahead too, although the difference there is slim.

 

--Clay Davenport

[strummer 0]

The Mets have made a contract offer to Cliff Floyd. If he signs, it basically guarentees the Mets will have the same starting eight they did for the majority of last year. I guess Minaya is avoiding the temptation to sign another big bat.

 

They have also made an offer to Chad Bradford.

[vivalaultra 0]

According to the Boston Herald, Theo Epstein has called Houston to inquire about Brad Lidge, "Brad Qualls", and Dan Wheeler. Wily Mo Pena's thought to be part of the deal. I don't see Wheeler going anywhere, and it's going to take more than Wily Mo Pena to get Lidge...at least I hope it would...and I have no idea who this "Brad Qualls" fellow the article mentions is. They should trade Josh Beckett for Lidge straight up.

[Spaceman Spiff 0]

Hey Al - did you see the Phillies are probably dropping Scott Graham from their broadcast team? Everyone was on 1 year contracts last year, and it looks like they'll re-sign everyone but Graham.

 

Bummer. I'd rather they drop Wheeler and keep Graham. Harry Kalas should pull a power play to dump Wheeler.

[Guest Paul]

Has it been reported that Mussina was inked to a 2 year deal with the Yankees, 6 million per season, I believe I heard.

[Brett Favre 0]

It's about 11 per year. 2 years, 22.5 million.

 

Yankees are also interested in Nomar, Gil Meche, and Dontrelle Willis.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

It's about 11 per year. 2 years, 22.5 million.

 

Yankees are also interested in Nomar, Gil Meche, and Dontrelle Willis.

 

And really, who isn't? Doubt Cashman would clean out the farm for him though.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

According to the Boston Herald, Theo Epstein has called Houston to inquire about Brad Lidge, "Brad Qualls", and Dan Wheeler. Wily Mo Pena's thought to be part of the deal. I don't see Wheeler going anywhere, and it's going to take more than Wily Mo Pena to get Lidge...at least I hope it would...and I have no idea who this "Brad Qualls" fellow the article mentions is. They should trade Josh Beckett for Lidge straight up.

 

Not that I have anything against Brad Lidge, in fact I've advocated the Sox going after him, but I really hope they don't give up Wily Mo Pena for him. Lidge had a questionable year in 2006 and he's about to get really expensive. I'm not big on paying for a closer, especially when the cost is a 25-year-old CFer with an .850 OPS.

[Precious Roy 0]

After the Sox won the posting for Matsuzaka it had occured to me that the Yankees would enter the bidding for Willis. I'd much prefer him over Zito, younger cheaper and better IMO, and I wouldn't be opposed to trading Sanchez and an OF prospect etc. for him. If we could pull that off we'd basically be flipping Sheff and some prospects for Willis.

 

I don't understand what Minaya is doing. Valentine killed them in the playoffs, Duque is great but he's 41 and can't last a full season, and Floyd is Floyd. Bringing their whole team back isn't getting them any closer to a championship.