College Basketball 06/07

[cabbageboy 0]

The Pac 10 has a lot of teams that are in the bottom of the top 25, but let's get real here. How many are capable of doing any real damage in March? UCLA of course. Oregon is starting to slide but might be a Sweet 16 type team. Zona will choke as usual. Stanford won't do shit. USC won't do shit. Washington St. I'm not sure about yet...they seem pretty decent and may or may not win a 4/5 type matchup.

 

My picks to click in the tourney are Texas A and M and Indiana. A and M might get in that San Antonio region and would have to be the favorite to come out of it. IU I dunno about in terms of the FF, but I think they'll likely go to Lexington for the first 2 rounds, so they will advance at least to the Sweet 16.

[CanadianChris 0]

How often does a conference ever have more than two legit contenders? It's a miracle that the Pac-10 is even talking about putting 6 teams in the tournament after the down period they've suffered.

[NoCalMike 0]

Maryland beats Duke!!!

[Mik 0]

 

Andy Katz said that Duke will still make the tournament if they go 6-10 in the ACC, but I'm still happy whenever they lose.

[CanadianChris 0]

This has to be the worst Duke team since the year Coach K went for back surgery.

[MarvinisaLunatic 0]

Maryland beats Duke!!!

Didnt see it..but even as bad as Duke is, I think it helps their tournament cause.

 

It'll be wierd to see Duke possibly unranked..

[cabbageboy 0]

Bullshit. If Duke ends up 6-10 in the ACC there is no way the committee can retain any vestige of credibility by putting them in. It's not like they've had all sorts of injuries that led to a losing streak. They just suck. End of debate. I wouldn't put them in at 7-9 either. You cannot put teams under .500 in conf. in the tourney. It's a joke, especially considering my guys U of L could end up at 10-6 in the Big East and get screwed in favor of the Durham Douchebags.

 

Duke has one OOC game with St. John's left that won't help if they win and could be killer if they lose. But here's what's left in the ACC for them:

 

At BC (2-14)

Georgia Tech (2-18)

At Clemson (2-22)

Maryland (2-28)

At UNC (3-04)

 

I'm assuming BC will pay them back for that earlier loss, so we'll put Duke at 5-7. Duke should salvage a split with Ga Tech so make them 6-7. Clemson will pay them back for that bogus crap earlier to knock Duke to 6-8. Duke likely salvages another split with MD this time, 7-8. Then UNC kicks their asses to send them to 7-9. Does anyone know if a team that was under .500 in league play has made the NCAA tourney as an at large?

[CanadianChris 0]

Does anyone know if a team that was under .500 in league play has made the NCAA tourney as an at large?

It's happened nine times. Florida State made it into the tournament in 1998 with a 6-10 ACC record.

[Edwin MacPhisto 0]

What's really stunning about Duke is their home schedule this year. They play 31 games, only nine of which are on the road. They have 19 true home games, plus games against Air Force and Marquette in the early-season tournament in Durham. Gonzaga was in NYC. The only real road game they have outside of the ACC is at St. John's. That imbalance--and how poorly they've played lately--is why I might keep them out of the tourney, moreso than a 7-9 record.

[cabbageboy 0]

I thought that tourney with Air Force and Marquette was in Kansas City or somewhere? Neutral at any rate.

 

That's shocking to hear FSU got in at 6-10 in 1998, since I vaguely remember them being better than that. Didn't they have something like a #5 seed to boot?? I'm assuming 4 of those losses were UNC and Duke when both teams were awesome, so maybe they got a break.

 

I was also informed that Iowa got in the tourney in 2005 at 7-9 in the Big 10. But the caveat there is Ohio St. was ineligible that year at 8-8, so I figure Iowa got their bid due to having a solid Big 10 tourney.

[therealworldschampion 0]

Hey cabbageboy, it's the matchup you've dreamed about on ESPN, Louisville vs. Pitt!

[snuffbox 0]

I'm pretty sure it is NCAA policy to include Duke in the tournament no matter what.

[Edwin MacPhisto 0]

cabbageboy, probably won't have to worry too much. Louisville's thrashing of Pitt is huge for them.

 

Meanwhile, Georgetown is pummeling WVU. The Hoyas are finally starting to play up to their preseason ranking, and that frontcourt is going to be nasty if they keep getting better throughout the postseason. Good chance of playing their way to a top-4 seed line at this point.

[cabbageboy 0]

Therealworlds...you were right. That game was in fact one I've been dreaming of! Bravo, guys. Bravo. Now U of L has that marquee win, should beat St. John's and Seton Hall to finish at least 10-6 in the BE, and from there it's money.

 

Now let's go kill those Marquette douchebags.

[SilverPhoenix 0]

Therealworlds...you were right. That game was in fact one I've been dreaming of! Bravo, guys. Bravo. Now U of L has that marquee win, should beat St. John's and Seton Hall to finish at least 10-6 in the BE, and from there it's money.

 

Now let's go kill those Marquette douchebags.

 

You may have to circle that as an L. Just curious, why does Louisville hate the Quette so fucking much?

[cabbageboy 0]

It's hard to fully explain it, but the crux of the U of L/Marquette rivalry started with the advent of C-USA. Most people in Louisville could have cared less about Marquette. It had been 20 years since they had won the title and they were a blip on the radar. Thing is, Marquette cared about beating U of L. I mean REALLY cared. In 1996 and 97 they actually did beat us a couple of times in some solid games. But the real beginning of U of L fans detesting Marquette was the 1998 game in which U of L got totally screwed over and lost a game to Quette on a last second 3, and then coach Mike Deane stormed the court at Freedom Hall, shook his fists, and taunted the crowd. He made an ass of himself and I think damn near every U of L fan wanted to kill him then and there.

 

There were other insane games over the years, like the 3 OT game in 2001, or Quette humiliating Pitino's first U of L team 3 times in 2002, or the fabulous game where U of L ended their home court win streak with the Reece Gaines 3 pointer, then the debacle rematch where Ellis Myles tore his leg up and Quette came from about 20 down to beat U of L.

 

Also, Marquette is ultra annoying in that they usually have some fuckhole that U of L fans all hate. Brian Wardle for a while, then Travis Diener (then again U of L fans hate that entire family, haha). Steve Novak was another guy that drove us crazy. Guys that really aren't worth a shit, have no pro prospects, and yet just drove U of L nuts. Dwayne Wade never annoyed me personally....actually I think UK fans would hate him more.

 

To sum up, U of L fans loathe Marquette since they always treat us like some ultra major game, tend to beat U of L in psychotic games, and always have some irritating asshole as a coach or on the team. In fact I'd almost say Marquette is U of L's most heated rival at this point, since Memphis stayed in C-USA and Cincy now sucks.

[Mik 0]

Damn Tarheels are frustrating this year.

 

That was a hell of a finish. If only Ty got the show off .5 seconds sooner.

[snuffbox 0]

Wisco-Minnesota tonight should be a hoot.

[KingPK 0]

Boston College completely gags at home against a struggling Duke team. Typical Eagles.

[2GOLD 0]

Boston College completely gags at home against a struggling Duke team. Typical Eagles.

 

Florida State had them beat, which was extremely frustrating to watch. I didn't see where BC is really all that good.

And the Noles lost to Georiga Tech and probably just closed the book on their tournament chances. Again. Eventually that school is going to have to find players who actually want to finish the season instead of sleep walking to the end like it's all wrapped up.

 

Course that isn't happening anytime soon.

[Edwin MacPhisto 0]

BC's pretty good. They can go as far as Jared Dudley and a decent cast of supporting characters can carry them. They were ranked and are considered good because they've played extremely well in the ACC up to this point, including 4 road wins (even though FSU got jobbed pretty badly at the end this weekend). However, they have the toughest road of anyone left, with UNC, @ VT, Clemson, and @ GT remaining. Fortunately for BC, UNC, VT, and UVA, there's so much separation between the top 4 in the conference and everyone below them that each of those teams would have to collapse tremendously to not get first-round byes in the conference tourney.

 

Duke, meanwhile, looks good to go if they win their remaining two home games.

[cabbageboy 0]

Yeah, I thought Duke's best shot at that road win to finish 8-8 in conf. was the MD game, but instead they got one at BC.

 

And now a brief rant. Does anyone else have a hard time accepting teams like BC and VT as upper echelon ACC teams? Let's face it, BC isn't all that much. Didn't they get waxed by Vermont and Duquesne this year? Kansas beat them with ease. A Big East JTTS Providence beat them as well.

 

Virginia Tech? If there is one thing over the past 3 years that has baffled me in basketball it is Virginia Tech beating teams like Duke and UNC. How the hell is this happening? VT has lost to Western Michigan (#146), GW (#86), Marshall (#167), and NC State (#125, though they did also beat UNC).

 

Marquette lost to DePaul tonight. I'm not sure if that's good or bad for U of L on Saturday. Sure, Quette is now struggling but they should also be desperate for a win.

[Edwin MacPhisto 0]

With the exception of UNC, the teams at the top of the conference all started inconsistent and have improved greatly over the course of conference play. UVA, VT, and BC all have some absolutely miserable losses early in the season (in addition to the ones you pointed out, UVA choked big-time over the holidays, losing to Utah), but all three have gotten much better as the season progressed. I watch most of the ACC games and all three have gotten much better at their strengths--for VT, it's causing disruption and taking advantage of their speeds to get big points in transition. UVA has become a much stronger rebounding team and started to find 3rd scoring options. BC's personnel losses forced them to shift almost everything through Dudley, which has been a blessing.

 

All that said, I think all three of those teams are 5/6 seed caliber-squads. Whichever one finishes the best will probably end up a 4. What I'm saying is that they're very good teams, but you're right in that they're not elite.

[cabbageboy 0]

I think to some degree league play brings out the best in some dubious teams. As in familiarity with the foes and that kind of deal. U of L falls into this same category with those ACC teams, though I wouldn't say U of L has a truly horrendous loss on the season (Dayton and UMass are both mediocre, but the other losses aren't bad).

 

The best example ever of this is South Carolina in 1997. They lost to some really awful teams in the pre conf. schedule, Appalachian St. and teams like that. Then magically they went 15-1 in the SEC and beat UK twice. Then come tourney time they did the el foldo and lost 1st round to Coppin St. in a 2/15 game.

[iggymcfly 0]

Georgia Tech's also looking a lot better over the course of the season. They're super young, so that's a big part of it, but they'd basically turn it over 30x a game early in the season, and they're just now learning how to be smart with the ball. Now that they've demolished UConn and finally got a road win against FSU, they're looking like a solid tourney team. If they keep maturing, I wouldn't be surprised to see them get hot and make an Elite 8 run.

[cabbageboy 0]

Georgia Tech is looking at about 7-9 in the ACC the way I figure it. They'll lose the Duke rematch, beat Wake, lose at UVA, likely lose to UNC, and might beat BC (tossup really). Iggy, I know you're a big GT fan for reasons I've never quite discerned, but they can't let EVERYONE from the ACC into the tourney.

[Guest]

SC is playing Arizona really well right now. I'm stunned, because I didn't think they had a hope in hell of winning in Tucson.

[iggymcfly 0]

Georgia Tech's improved a lot. They're actually better than Duke right now (not to say they'll beat them in Cameron Indoor) to the point that they're probably the third or fourth best team in the ACC. Also, they're resume's pretty good as they went 12-2 in non-conference play including a neutral-site win over #9 Memphis and a competitive loss to #7 UCLA.

 

If they go 2-3 the rest of the way and win their first game in the ACC tournament, that's 20 wins overall. Can you really justify holding out an ACC team that played a tough non-conference schedule and picked up 20 wins? Also, the Sagarin rankings (the premier computer rankings IMO) currently have Georgia Tech ranked #19.

 

If you're worried about Louisville's spot getting taken (which it won't, they're a lock now unless they totally blow the rest of the season), your enemy isn't the proven 20-win power conference teams. It's the bullshit teams from semi-major conferences like Xavier and UNLV who have the same overall record as a team like Georgia Tech but play a vastly inferior schedule.

 

Oh, and just to clarify, I'm not trying to hold Georgia Tech down to 20 wins either. That's just a conservative threshhold. I think they've got a great shot to knock off either Duke or UNC, and I could see them doing well in the ACC tournament too.

 

One more interesting stat for you:

Record vs. Top 50

Georgia Tech: 7-5

Louisville: 1-6

[Edwin MacPhisto 0]

If Clemson and FSU keep tanking, Georgia Tech certainly has a shot to sneak in at one of the last spaces. I think they'll need at least 8-8 and a win in the ACC tourney to be considered, though. They're at #42 in the RPI currently, but that'll climb if they get to that record, and they'd have wins in at least 7 of their last 10 games.

 

Basically, Maryland, FSU, Clemson, and GT will probably get one or two bids between them, depending on how they fare. GT controls their own destiny at this point, but it'll be rough for them to even win out at home with UNC and BC coming to town. I certainly don't think GT is close to being in the top third of the conference. They'll need a big run in the conference tourney to convince me of that.

[iggymcfly 0]

According to ESPN's bracketology, if the season ended today, these would be the seeds for ACC teams:

 

1 North Carolina

4 Boston College

5 Virginia Tech

6 Virginia

7 Clemson

8 Duke

10 Maryland

11 Georgia Tech

 

And with all that, Florida State would be the last team left out of the tournament. The ACC's so balanced this year that you can't just cut them off at six or seven teams and say "that's all the spots they get". Florida State's the 9th place team in the conference and they're only 4 games out of first with an overall record only a game and a half worse than ACC-leading Boston College.