2007 Spring Training: The Thread

[Guest Queen Leelee]

I'd rip on Ozzie and Erstad, but FJM does it so much better.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

I'd rip on Ozzie and Erstad, but FJM does it so much better.

 

Very true.

 

At the end of last season, I though the White Sox would maybe be the favorites in the Central going into this year. I now have them as the fourth best team in the division and slipping. They still have the ability to be very good, but everyday Kenny Williams and Ozzie Guillen make it a little harder. PECOTA has them projected to win 72 games, which seems awfully low but there aren't a lot of reasons to be optimistic right now.

[razazteca 0]

Are we ready to do predictions for the year?

Yankees vs Mets or Angels vs Dodgers with the darkhorse wildcard to win it all being Brewers.

[vivalaultra 0]

In Houston, there's a legitimate threat that the #5 starter beginning the season will be Brian Moehler. The #4 spot has already been given to Wandy Rodriguez, only because he pitches lefty. Phil Garner has been saying that the best rotation candidate during ST will probably not be in the rotation but slotted as a long reliever, as having Woody Williams, Wandy Rodriguez, and then Brian Moehler as the bottom third of the rotation will probably mean that the longman will be getting ALOT of work. I don't see the sense in this argument. A #5 starter, while he doesn't have to set the world on fire, will probably have to average around 160-180 innings to be league average while a long man shouldn't get more than about 80-90 innings a year. Wouldn't it be more productive to put the best pitchers in the rotation so they get more quality innings than the Brian Moehlers and Wandy Rodriguezs of the world?

 

And, also, non-roster invitee Rick "Double Balls" White is pitching himself into a bullpen spot in Houston. In 10 innings this ST, he's given up 0 runs, 4 hits, and 3 walks. I'm sure that by June, he'll have an ERA of around 4.50, but, I'd have no problem with him in the pen filling the Russ Springer role. Plus, he's got a hellacious beard and, even better, he took Andy Pettitte's old number. Hilarious!

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

I'd rip on Ozzie and Erstad, but FJM does it so much better.

 

Very true.

 

At the end of last season, I though the White Sox would maybe be the favorites in the Central going into this year. I now have them as the fourth best team in the division and slipping. They still have the ability to be very good, but everyday Kenny Williams and Ozzie Guillen make it a little harder. PECOTA has them projected to win 72 games, which seems awfully low but there aren't a lot of reasons to be optimistic right now.

Last year the Sox finished third in runs scored despite abysmal offensive seasons from Juan Uribe, Scott Podsednik and Brian Anderson. The Sox need to patch together a solution in left field, and I'm more inclined to give Kenny Williams the blame on that one.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

I agree Viva, if you have a guy who can start and pitch decently, he should be in the rotation. The only exception I would make is a rookie starter. Earl Weaver believed in a young pitcher serving an apprenticeship in the bullpen, and the Twins have enjoyed great success with Johan Santana and Francisco Liriano with that method.

[USC Wuz Robbed! 0]

White Sox are certainly going to be better than 4th in the division.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

I'd rip on Ozzie and Erstad, but FJM does it so much better.

 

Very true.

 

At the end of last season, I though the White Sox would maybe be the favorites in the Central going into this year. I now have them as the fourth best team in the division and slipping. They still have the ability to be very good, but everyday Kenny Williams and Ozzie Guillen make it a little harder. PECOTA has them projected to win 72 games, which seems awfully low but there aren't a lot of reasons to be optimistic right now.

Last year the Sox finished third in runs scored despite abysmal offensive seasons from Juan Uribe, Scott Podsednik and Brian Anderson. The Sox need to patch together a solution in left field, and I'm more inclined to give Kenny Williams the blame on that one.

 

I would also bet on some regression from Thome, Konerko and Dye, all of whom had seasons that aren't likely repeatable at their advancing ages. Podsednik and Erstad batting back to back will cause a problem with sustaining drives and putting runs on the board. I don't think they'll be a bad offensive team, but certainly one with potential to be less than stellar.

 

The pitching staff might cause even more concern. The starting five proved to be much more human last year, and now they've lost both Freddy Garcia and Brandon McCarthy with no great options to replace them. Removing pitching depth has a way of coming back to hurt a team in the long run. The back end of the bullpen should still be good with MacDougal and Jenks, but getting there is going to become more of an issue.

 

This team had all the elements for employing a "go for it now" mentality and they just spun their wheels in the offseason.

 

White Sox are certainly going to be better than 4th in the division.

 

Maybe. Maybe not. On paper, from a pure talent standpoint, they are the 4th best team in the division. However, a lot can happen between now and October. That's why they play the games.

[Guest]

Billingsley will be bullpening to start the year.

[geniusMoment 0]

Anyone been following the Josh Hamilton story so far this spring? Scouts say he has more natural talent than ARod or Griffey did when drafted, and he's looked tremendous this spring drawing Roy Hobbes comparisons after hitting a 510 foot home run to straight center in his first spring game after not playing for almost 4 years, especially since wonderboy is carved into his bat.

 

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/col/madden/index.html

[Guest Eagle Man]

Sox will finish first or second.

[USC Wuz Robbed! 0]

More likely second or third. The division is the Twins' to win and I can see either Cleveland or Detroit snagging 2nd.

[Vampiro69 0]

So Ozzie plans to bat Erstad second? I wonder if Ozzie understands that you have to score runs to win games.

 

It seems so long ago that Erstad led the majors in hits. If he would not have beat his body down so much I wonder what he could have done while being healthier.

[Guest Queen Leelee]

Maybe he could have had another fluke season.

[MarvinisaLunatic 0]

I predict the Os will finish in 3rd place this year ahead of the Blue Jays! Progress, although they'll probably still finish sub .500..like 80-82 or something.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

For those of you with Baseball Prospectus 2007, four players are missing from the book. The Pecota cards for those players (Wladimir Balentin, Adrian Beltre, Hernan Irabarren and Bob Wickman) are available on their website free of charge.

[Guest Queen Leelee]

Wladimir? I'm assuming he's from one of those Dutch Caribbean islands.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Wladimir? I'm assuming he's from one of those Dutch Caribbean islands.

Curacao.

[Hawk 34 0]

Griffey Jr has officially been moved to RF.

[Vampiro69 0]

Anyone been following the Josh Hamilton story so far this spring? Scouts say he has more natural talent than ARod or Griffey did when drafted, and he's looked tremendous this spring drawing Roy Hobbes comparisons after hitting a 510 foot home run to straight center in his first spring game after not playing for almost 4 years, especially since wonderboy is carved into his bat.

 

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/col/madden/index.html

 

Hopefully he has put all the demons in the past. It would be a great story that he cleaned his life up and was able to make a great comeback.

[Annabelle 0]

the twins won't win the central.

[Vern Gagne 0]

yes they will.

[USC Wuz Robbed! 0]

Yeah it's hard to bet against the Twins. They have won the Central the last 4 out of 5 years. If nothing else, Johan Santana will will them to a division title.

[Vern Gagne 0]

How the Twins manage their rotation is going to be important. Do they have the quick trigger if Sidney Ponson or Carlos Silva struggle.

[MarvinisaLunatic 0]

How the Twins manage their rotation is going to be important. Do they have the quick trigger if Sidney Ponson or Carlos Silva struggle.

 

I cant believe the Twins are relying on Ponson.

 

He'll probably win 16 games for them, but his comments about the fans booing him in baltimore were something..

 

"They booed me when I was playing there. It doesn't bother me. Baltimore fans have no clue what baseball is all about," Ponson said. "The old Baltimore fans over on 33rd Street [Memorial Stadium], that's true baseball fans. "[The Camden Yards fans] were booing me the last two years. It doesn't matter. I could be pitching a good game and give up a run in the eighth and they would boo me. It doesn't hurt my feelings."

 

Im curious what the hell he knew about Memorial Stadium. And lol..there was a reason the Camden Yards fans were booing your fat lazy good for nothing ass the last two years and it wasnt because you gave up a run in the 8th..more probably like you gave up 6 in the 2nd.

[CanadianChris 0]

I'd rip on Ozzie and Erstad, but FJM does it so much better.

Boy, do they ever.

 

I Knew Ozzie Wouldn't Let Me Down

Proving that he has learned nothing from anything he has ever seen or been told, Ozzie Guillen is installing a couple of real grinders at the top of his line-up.

 

In a move that paves the way for Tadahito Iguchi to drop down in the batting order, manager Ozzie Guillen said Sunday he plans to bat Darin Erstad second against right-handed starters.

 

Here are some numbers for you to look at. Each one represents Darin Erstad's OBP, in one of the last six years.

 

.279

.325

.346

.309

.313

.331

 

Those are bad numbers!

 

Here are two other numbers: Tad Iguchi's OBP's for the last two years.

 

.352

.342

 

Not wonderful. But better than Erstad's.

 

What's truly crazy about this, is that Iguchi hits righties well. Last year he was .298/.363/.438, so he got on base more effectively against righties than lefties. Slugged better against 'em, too. And yet, because Darin Erstad is left handed -- which, as we all know, means that regardless of what the factual numbers say, he hits righties better than someone who is right-handed, like Tad Iguchi -- he will hit second.

 

"[scott Podsednik] is a better leadoff guy, and [Erstad] handles the bat better than Pods in hit-and-run situations," Guillen said. "We can play games even though Pods is our leadoff guy."

 

Let's break this down.

 

"Scott Podsednik is a better leadoff guy"

 

Than who? Iguchi? No. There are millions of pieces of evidence that prove differently. Than Darin Erstad? Maybe. But Erstad played hockey and punted footballs. So fuck you, stat nerds.

 

"[Erstad] handles the bat better than Pods in hit-and-run situations."

 

Oh my God. Ozzie Guillen is planning on winning games by playing hit-and-run with Darin Erstad and Scott Podsednik. Prediction: the White Sox score 150 runs this year.

 

"We can play games even though Pods is our leadoff guy."

 

True. One game you might try playing is baseball. One good way to play baseball effectively is to put men who get on base a lot in front of men who hit HR a lot. You have chosen to play a different game: RunIntoOutsBall, which is played by hitting Darin Erstad second in your line-up and hitting and running a lot. Another game you are playing is: OutsBall, (also called "SmartBall") which is played by hitting Scott Podsednik and Darin Erstad 1-2 in your line-up. The goal is to make as many outs as possible at the top of your line-up. The ChiSox are getting 1-8 odds to win the World Series of Outs this year. Even so, I have bet everything I own on them.

 

Over the previous three seasons with the Angels, Erstad has a higher batting average from the second spot (.277) than the leadoff spot (.259).

 

First of all, this difference in averages is barely anything. Second, they are both terrible. Third, Erstad is terrible. Fourth, hitting him second is a terrible idea. Fifth, Erstad = terrible. Sixth, terrible. Seventherrible. Eterrible. Terriblenth. And tenth, you are a terrible manager, Ozzie Guillen.

 

And finally, here's this nugget:

 

Podsednik has batted leadoff since becoming a full-time player with Milwaukee in 2003, and his quick recovery from a Jan. 23 sports hernia operation has fueled Guillen's faith in him from the leadoff spot after a poor 2006 season.

 

I'll translate this for you: Scott Podsednik has been not good for the last three years. Then he had a gruesome injury and is just now recovering from it. So... he'll be awesome!

 

Podsednik went 0-for-7 Sunday with a stolen base in a minor-league game against Colorado in Tucson.

 

See? He'll be awesome!

[Annabelle 0]

the detroit tigers still don't get any respect. their rotation is 4 deep, the twins is pretty much only 1 deep. arguably the best pitcher in the league, but he can't pitch every night.

[The Man in Blak 0]

With Liriano out of the picture, the Tigers seem like a reasonable favorite to me, even though I think the whole division (even the Royals) will be even more competitive this season. Even though there are veterans (Kenny Rogers, specifically) that look to take a downturn, you've got other young players like Verlander and Granderson who are set to improve.

[Guest Queen Leelee]

I heart FJM.

 

I still like the Twins. Because of their bullpen.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

You guys are missing the bigger picture. The Indians will win the Central this year.