The "Ask Al" Thread

[Guest]

I didn't get it either. That's why I asked you.

 

Maybe he was trying to say, statistics aren't what makes you a good player. But when looking at players and determining their worth, statistics are the best thing (or one of) to support your argument. Dunno.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Or he could be addressing the misuse of statistics. I'm not certain.

[vivalaultra 0]

Re: The Vin Scully quote-

 

Vin's simile is saying this, I think: An argument about the quality of a player, good or bad, shouldn't be based upon statistics, but on an other argument. However, statistics should be used to enhance the argument, one way or the other. Statistics should be used for support, but not for illumination. You should use statistics to back up what you're saying, but you shouldn't act like by using some statistical argument that you've flipped on a light switch and made some big point about something. Now, for homework, write a 50-word short essay on the meaning behind the following Joaquin Andujar quote:

 

'You can sum up the game of baseball in one word-You never know.'

[TheDevilAndGodAreRagingInsideMe 0]

Is Jorge Posada having the best all around year for a catcher of his age ever?

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Is Jorge Posada having the best all around year for a catcher of his age ever?

Quite possibly. The only other candidate is Carlton Fisk, who trails in every statistic except home runs, but finished third in MVP balloting. Posada won't finish as high.

[dh86 0]

rate the young Tiger pitchers in order of the how you think they will do at their peak; Verlander,Bonderman,Miller,Zumaya,Jurrjens

[razazteca 0]

Of all of the bird theme teams in the NFL which will be a contender in the playoffs? I'm guessing that Eagles, Seahawks, Ravens get wildcard berths while the Cardinals & Falcons fight over who gets the #1 draft pick.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

rate the young Tiger pitchers in order of the how you think they will do at their peak; Verlander,Bonderman,Miller,Zumaya,Jurrjens

Verlander, Bonderman, Miller, Zumaya, Jurrjens. I'm iffy on Zumaya. His K rate is tremendous but he's never truly harnessed his control at any level.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

rate the young Tiger pitchers in order of the how you think they will do at their peak; Verlander,Bonderman,Miller,Zumaya,Jurrjens

Verlander, Bonderman, Miller, Zumaya, Jurrjens. I'm iffy on Zumaya. His K rate is tremendous but he's never truly harnessed his control at any level.

 

I'd agree with this as well. Miller probably has the potential to be better than Bonderman, but I could go either way with those two. Where would you slot Porcello in? Obviously, TINSTAAP, but he's got the pure stuff to be a no. 1 starter someday.

[Broward83 0]

Having just seen them on ESPN:

 

Can you go further into explaining the "Joba Rules" along with maybe explaining just how they came to be and why the Yankee's allow it.

 

Edit: Figured I'd throw in something extra: Biggio and Bagwell...are both future hall of famer's and what would the chances of either getting in on the first ballot be?

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Edgar Renteria is in his age 31 season and closing in on 2,000 hits. How do you rate his chances of getting to 3,000? What are his chances of making the Hall if he reaches that milestone?

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Having just seen them on ESPN:

 

Can you go further into explaining the "Joba Rules" along with maybe explaining just how they came to be and why the Yankee's allow it.

 

Edit: Figured I'd throw in something extra: Biggio and Bagwell...are both future hall of famer's and what would the chances of either getting in on the first ballot be?

This is the first time Chamberlain has pitched a full season of baseball. The Yankees need him for their playoff push, but they need to restrict his workload as not to burn him out too soon. Thus they have an guideline for using him that Joe Torre can follow.

 

I would vote for both given a chance. Biggio should have no problem with his 3,000 hits. Bagwell might have a bit of trouble given his relative lack of counting stats. I hope voters look at his many top 10 MVP finishes.

[CanadianChris 0]

Mike Mussina: Hall of Famer? Does he need 300 wins to have a chance?

[Broward83 0]

Having just seen them on ESPN:

 

Can you go further into explaining the "Joba Rules" along with maybe explaining just how they came to be and why the Yankee's allow it.

 

Edit: Figured I'd throw in something extra: Biggio and Bagwell...are both future hall of famer's and what would the chances of either getting in on the first ballot be?

This is the first time Chamberlain has pitched a full season of baseball. The Yankees need him for their playoff push, but they need to restrict his workload as not to burn him out too soon. Thus they have an guideline for using him that Joe Torre can follow.

 

I would vote for both given a chance. Biggio should have no problem with his 3,000 hits. Bagwell might have a bit of trouble given his relative lack of counting stats. I hope voters look at his many top 10 MVP finishes.

 

I agree with you on both, my fear is that voters will only remember Bagwell for playing at Minute Maid Park and not remember that he put up alot of his stats while playing in The Astrodome.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Edgar Renteria is in his age 31 season and closing in on 2,000 hits. How do you rate his chances of getting to 3,000? What are his chances of making the Hall if he reaches that milestone?

That's an interesting thought. A look at the Favorite Toy gives Edgar Renteria a 41.6% shot at 3,000 hits. (I gave Renteria the benefit of the doubt at used ESPN.com's projected total through the end of the season. Renteria is injured and unlikely to reach that.) If Renteria doesn't come back at all this year, it's 28.4%. Personally I don't see either 3000 hits or the Hall of Fame. At no point has Renteria been a Hall of Fame caliber player in his career. He'll only reach the milestone because the Marlins sold off their players and played rookies in 1998.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Mike Mussina: Hall of Famer? Does he need 300 wins to have a chance?

Hall of Famer. All modern pitchers with a .600+ winning percentage and as many wins are in the Hall. You have to go down to Carl Mays (207 wins) to find one who is not.

[Bruiser Chong 0]

Raul Mondesi. He seemed poised to become one of the game's best sluggers his first several years in LA. Yet he never reached 100 RBI. What's the deal? Was he just not that good?

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Raul Mondesi. He seemed poised to become one of the game's best sluggers his first several years in LA. Yet he never reached 100 RBI. What's the deal? Was he just not that good?

Pretty much. He was too undisciplined at the plate.

[vivalaultra 0]

Can you give your opinion on TNSTAAPP and possibly some examples to back it up? I agree in context with the theory, but I'm not sure if I agree with the theory in context.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Can you give your opinion on TNSTAAPP and possibly some examples to back it up? I agree in context with the theory, but I'm not sure if I agree with the theory in context.

The idea is that a pitching prospect, no matter how elite, is subject to the risks of injury. Pitching prospects as a whole reach the Majors at a lower percentage than position players. I think one way to illustrate the point is by looking at the pitchers drafted first overall. Bryan Bullington, Matt Anderson, Kris Benson, Paul Wilson, Brien Taylor, Ben McDonald, etc. Andy Benes was the best of the lot.

 

Another place to look is Baseball America's top 100 prospect lists. They have done the list since 1990. In that time, the top pitching prospects in baseball have included Todd Van Poppel, Brien Taylor (twice), James Baldwin, Paul Wilson, Kris Benson, Rick Ankiel (twice), Jesse Foppert and Edwin Jackson. Hardly a group that has racked up multiple All-Star appearances.

 

Generally, pitchers are unpredictable in nature, and what looks like a sure hit isn't as sure as the best position prospect.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Can you give your opinion on TNSTAAPP and possibly some examples to back it up? I agree in context with the theory, but I'm not sure if I agree with the theory in context.

The idea is that a pitching prospect, no matter how elite, is subject to the risks of injury. Pitching prospects as a whole reach the Majors at a lower percentage than position players. I think one way to illustrate the point is by looking at the pitchers drafted first overall. Bryan Bullington, Matt Anderson, Kris Benson, Paul Wilson, Brien Taylor, Ben McDonald, etc. Andy Benes was the best of the lot.

 

Another place to look is Baseball America's top 100 prospect lists. They have done the list since 1990. In that time, the top pitching prospects in baseball have included Todd Van Poppel, Brien Taylor (twice), James Baldwin, Paul Wilson, Kris Benson, Rick Ankiel (twice), Jesse Foppert and Edwin Jackson. Hardly a group that has racked up multiple All-Star appearances.

 

Generally, pitchers are unpredictable in nature, and what looks like a sure hit isn't as sure as the best position prospect.

 

I have just a slightly different interpretation/understanding on TINSTAAP. Basically, I break into two component parts:

 

1. Young pitchers get injured/flameout at such at a high rate that they can't really be projected as actual prospects

 

2. Pitchers who have progressed and had success in the high minors are capable of having an equal amount of success in the majors. They are no longer prospects.

[Vern Gagne 0]

Can Edwin Jackson turn the corner and become a solid starting pitcher? He's looked better in the second half.

 

Did Brady Anderson have the biggest "Where the hell did the come from season" of all-time?

[King Kamala 0]

The season where Esteban Loaiza won 21 games was really out of nowhere.

[CanadianChris 0]

Have you read Baseball Between the Numbers by the BP guys? If so, what did you think of it?

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Have you read Baseball Between the Numbers by the BP guys? If so, what did you think of it?

 

 

I thought it was very good, especially if you like the style of the BP guys and understand their metrics. If Moneyball was an introduction to sabermetrics, think of BBTN as intermediate coursework. Each chapter is self-contained, which hurts the flow of the book, but it's great as a reference tool.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Can Edwin Jackson turn the corner and become a solid starting pitcher? He's looked better in the second half.

 

Did Brady Anderson have the biggest "Where the hell did the come from season" of all-time?

His peripherals for the second half aren't too impressive, except that he cut his home run rate. I would doubt it based on his current stats, but he is just 23 yet.

 

Brady hit a lot of home runs but he was always a very good player. My vote goes to Willie McGee, hitting .353, slugging a hair over .500 and winning the MVP in 1985.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Have you read Baseball Between the Numbers by the BP guys? If so, what did you think of it?

There is a lot of good information, but ultimately it reads like a collection of term papers. It's not an easy read, and I think it's heavy-handed nature might turn off some readers. A common complaint about BP is they tend to use a lot of graphs that look like gibberish if you've never taken a course in College Statistics.

[MFer 0]

Would Nomar be a Hall of Famer without the injuries? (unless you believe he's on a HOF track right now)

 

Also, how many HR's do you think Ryan Howard will end up with?

[TheDevilAndGodAreRagingInsideMe 0]

A hundred thousand kazillion billion

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Would Nomar be a Hall of Famer without the injuries? (unless you believe he's on a HOF track right now)

 

Also, how many HR's do you think Ryan Howard will end up with?

Hard to bet against a SS who hits .350+. Right now, I have my doubts. His stats are not so impressive as a corner infielder.

 

Ryan Howard I'm going to say around 400-450. I doubt he plays far into his late 30s.