MLB Off-season Thread

[TheDevilAndGodAreRagingInsideMe 0]

I don't care who he is, Chamberlain, Hughes, and Cano are all off the table for me. I wouldn't give up any of them.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

I don't care who he is, Chamberlain, Hughes, and Cano are all off the table for me. I wouldn't give up any of them.

 

 

Why exactly? None of those guys are the caliber of player that Johan is.

[CanadianChris 0]

What is it with the Yankee fans wanting to add a degree of difficulty to next season? First they say they're better off without the best player in the game, now they say they don't want to trade for the best pitcher in the game unless they can also get him for 50 cents on the dollar.

[naiwf 0]

Last night, I lost whatever respect I had for Tony Paige on WFAN when he said something to the effect of "Hughes and Joba have a lot of potential. Santana's already reached his. How much better can Santana get? Even if the Yankees trade for Santana and win 2 championships in the next 5 years, what do you do when Santana's 34 or 35 at the end of the deal and on the downside of his career and Hughes and Chamberlain are as good as he was when you got him?" He's also against trading Cano because "if you put him at #5 in the lineup he could easily drive in 120 runs."

 

First of all, there's no guarantee with young arms as Mets and Cubs fans will tell you. Secondly, any team outside of the Yankees would gut their farm system for two championships in 5 years. Lastly, Santana's not 34 or 35 now and the difference between where he is now and where the prospects are is immense. The notion that some fans had that two guys who win 12-15 games a year is better than having an ace who gets you 18-20 works in theory, but not in practice.

[TheDevilAndGodAreRagingInsideMe 0]

Tony Paige is God awful. I don't know how he keeps his job.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

What is it with the Yankee fans wanting to add a degree of difficulty to next season? First they say they're better off without the best player in the game, now they say they don't want to trade for the best pitcher in the game unless they can also get him for 50 cents on the dollar.

 

 

It's not just Yankees fans. With rising salaries increasing the importance of cost-controlled youth, every team has come to value their prospects highly. Fans have picked up on this, but unless you're reading Baseball America and keeping abreast of developments at the minor league level, it's hard to put into perspective what these guys are worth.

 

Prospects get evaluated relative to the other talent in their organization and are often framed in terms of their upside. Hearing that your top guy could be a number 1 or 2 starter can make you giddy. However, no one is factoring in the reality that the probability of the guy reaching that level is minimal. Yankees fans don't think they are getting Johan for 50 cents on the dollar because they think their guys are going to be better than him in the coming years.

 

Hughes and Chamberlain are excellent young pitchers. But so are Nick Adenhart, Felix Hernandez, Andrew Miller, Adam Miller, Justin Verlander, Matt Garza, Francisco Liriano, Fausto Carmona, Clay Buchholz, Jeff Niemann, Clayton Kershaw, Tim Lincecum, Yovani Gallardo, Homer Bailey, Tom Gorzelanny, Cole Hamels, Deolis Guerra and Josh Johnson. See what happens when you start making comparisons to other organizations? These guys have every bit the potential that the Yankees' guys have and some of them have already done it at the major league level. It's just a lack of perspective when assessing value.

[Brett Favre 0]

Honestly if we couldn't make the trade without giving up Hughes, then fuck it. Santana is great. But he's been declining the last three years. He's still a top 3, top 2, top 1 pitcher or whatever but at the same time you're giving up a guy who's projected to be a top ace for a lot longer than Santana will be now. And I know people are down on Hughes because he started off slow when in actuality he started off fine, got hurt, and once he recovered he was the Yankees best pitcher. No Hughes in the deal for me, and I honestly don't think the Red Sox will offer Buccholz so the Twins will have to use their expert scouting to find a gem to go along with a top tier minor league prospect (ex. Tabata or Austin Jackson), that can be paired with Kennedy too.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Honestly if we couldn't make the trade without giving up Hughes, then fuck it. Santana is great. But he's been declining the last three years. He's still a top 3, top 2, top 1 pitcher or whatever but at the same time you're giving up a guy who's projected to be a top ace for a lot longer than Santana will be now. And I know people are down on Hughes because he started off slow when in actuality he started off fine, got hurt, and once he recovered he was the Yankees best pitcher. No Hughes in the deal for me, and I honestly don't think the Red Sox will offer Buccholz so the Twins will have to use their expert scouting to find a gem to go along with a top tier minor league prospect (ex. Tabata or Austin Jackson), that can be paired with Kennedy too.

 

 

What decline are you talking about? His numbers have been almost exactly the same for the last four years. The HRs were a littly flukey this year, but all the underlying peripherals were exactly the same. He's still the best pitcher in baseball and only 28 years old. The chances that Hughes ever becomes as good as Santana is probably less than 1%.

 

Since when are Tabata and Jackson top tier prospects? Guys with no experience above A ball showing minimal plate discipline and no power are not elite. Every organization has guys just like them. Once again, the ceiling is high, but they are both 2+ years away from even sniffing the major leagues and that's only if they continue to develop at a high level. Those guys are used to sweeten the pot in a trade, not build around.

[Cowboy Battlenuts 0]

Bah, I don't like it, I can't get behind the idea of trading your future for success next year.

[Brett Favre 0]

Tabata shows minimal plate discipline? He's had OBPs of .388, .377, and .371. If anything they like his plate discipline and his ability to get his pitches. Austin Jackson has been tearing it up in tough leagues. And last year he had an OPS of .964 in high A, not to mention that the Twins are actually interested in him.

 

And Santana the last three years has had a decline in WHIP, HRs allowed, and OPS against. Each year it's gotten worse and worse. I know it's still elite, but it's not like he's been getting better. It's no fluke.

[Jorge Gorgeous 0]

What is it with the Yankee fans wanting to add a degree of difficulty to next season? First they say they're better off without the best player in the game, now they say they don't want to trade for the best pitcher in the game unless they can also get him for 50 cents on the dollar.

 

When we lost A-Rod, I thought it marked a new direction for the team, and I was excited about it because it was... well, new, I guess. Now that we have him, resigned Jorge and The Hammer of God for a bunch of money, it's clear that isn't the case. I'd be excited either way. Isn't that what a fan has to do, sometimes? Find the silver lining and convince himself the rest of the cloud is silver too?

[Brett Favre 0]

Here are Santana's numbers from another board. Again, they're still great. I'd love to have him. I just wouldn't trade Hughes for him.

 

H/9:

2004 - 6.16; 2005 - 6.99; 2006 - 7.16; 2007 - 7.52

 

HR/9:

2005 - 0.85; 2006 - 0.92; 2007 - 1.36

 

BB/9:

2005 - 1.75; 2006 - 1.81; 2007 - 2.14

 

WHIP:

2004 - 0.92; 2005 - 0.97; 2006 - 1.00; 2007 - 1.07

 

BAA:

2004 - .192; 2005 - .210; 2006 - .216; 2007 - .225

 

OBP:

2004 - .249; 2005 - .248; 2006 - .257; 2007 - .272

 

SLG:

2004 - .315; 2005 - .346; 2006 - .360; 2007 - .405

 

OPS:

2004 - .564; 2005 - .594; 2006 - .616; 2007 - .678

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Santana allowed a flukey number of HRs this year. He gave up 9 more than ever had in any previou season. By doing so, his ERA, BAA, OBP and SLG all rose. His underlying stats, including K, BB, IP, RA and hits were basically the same as they've always been.

[Brett Favre 0]

That'd be alright if he wasn't already allowing more HRs per year since 2004. If he were allowing less HRs in like 2006 than in 2005 or 2004 or whatever, then I'd consider it a fluke. But it keeps on rising. It's the same thing with everything else.

[CanadianChris 0]

None of those differences before 2007 could be considered statistically significant.

 

I'm looking forward to seeing Hughes' PECOTA for 2008, because I doubt his five-year projection will have him anything close to Santana's level.

[naiwf 0]

His hits allowed per nine has gone up but was still 3rd best in the AL instead of the # 1 the last 3 years. His WHIP went up but was still # 1. If you put him in Yankee Stadium his stats would likely get better and his W/L record would revert to the previous years since he'd be getting 5 or 6 runs per game to play with instead of 2 or 3. He only gave up more than 4 runs 3 times this year. That kind of performance with the Yankees' offense backing him up would get him another Cy Young.

 

Basically, I think you're splitting hairs. If A-Rod's next three years are 51 HR, 145 RBI, 1.030 OPS, 47/135/1.010 and 43/125/.990 his numbers would be declining over that period, but would still be of MVP caliber. If you think Santana's shot then that's one thing but to think that Hughes is going to be his equal, or even better is just speculation at this point. If there were that many guys who could become Santana he wouldn't be capable of commanding so much for both the Twins as well as himself.

[Brett Favre 0]

I don't think he's shot. All I'm saying is I think Hughes is being overlooked because he got hurt and was rusty till he was better and now people are just throwing him around in a trade for Santana, who's obviously better but also like 8 years older, and looking for a big ass contract. Of course I want Santana. I just prefer not giving up Hughes, and I think that's possible.

[Boon 0]

It's either Hughes or Chamberlain. I'd be stunned if a deal didn't include at least one of those two, especially with the Red Sox apparently willing to deal either Buchholz or Lester.

[Brett Favre 0]

The Red Sox aren't giving up Buccholz. Why would we give up Hughes or Chamberlain?

[CanadianChris 0]

I was reading something today suggesting the Twins would be looking at getting position players more than pitchers, given the depth of pitching throughout the organization. Which is to say that Hughes and Chamberlain might not be traded, but if neither of them are, both Cabrera and Cano almost certainly would be.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

The Red Sox aren't giving up Buccholz. Why would we give up Hughes or Chamberlain?

 

 

Says who? Theo Epstein said in an interview yesterday that nobody is untouchable. The Red Sox would surely give up Buchholz in a deal for Santana. Where a potential deal falls down is what else they want to go with him. If it becomes Buchholz, Ellsbury, Lowrie and Anderson, then at that point you are considering a deal that may be cost prohibitive.

 

Honestly, if an extension could be arranged, a fair offer on the Yankees part would be Hughes, Cano and another decent prospect.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

I'd give up Cole Hamels for Santana and wouldn't think twice about it.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3130149

 

I'll be surprised if Juan Lara pitches again.

[Guest RyechnaiaSobaka]

Tabata shows minimal plate discipline? He's had OBPs of .388, .377, and .371. If anything they like his plate discipline and his ability to get his pitches.

 

Dude, we're talking like A and high-A ball here. He also had BABIPs of .363 and .360 in 2006 and 2007. His wOBA numbers were less impressive at .353 and .334.

 

I'm not saying Tabata sucks or anything, but I don't think he's as likely to pan out as you might.

 

All this being said, I don't understand how any fan of any team actually really truly expects to be able to land Johan friggin' Santana without giving up basically your best young player(s). The fact that the Yankees can say "We're not trading Chamberlain no matter what" and still have guys like Hughes, Kennedy, Cano, and so on to work with shows that they've got quite a bit of talent to begin with. I don't think most teams can compete with the kind of package the Yankees are willing to put together. When the Mets called about Santana, the Twins reportedly asked for Jose Reyes or David Wright. That's what we're talking about here.

 

And what are these teams REALLY trading for, anyway? Well, they're trading for the right to sign Santana to a long-term contract that's below what his market value would be next year. Do you have any idea how much more money Santana would get if he actually became a free agent next year? Maybe if you're a Yankees fan and feel like your team has infinite money, that's a better scenario than trading Phil Hughes. That's why the Yankees are involved in this anyway.

 

If Santana did become a free agent, can any other team in baseball offer him the same kind of contract that the Yankees could? I don't think so. But the Twins seem pretty committed to dealing him, and if the Red Sox are willing to give up Coco Crisp and Clay Buchholz and somebody else for him, well, you've got to get in the race. You can't just say "We're not going to trade our young good players" and let Santana end up signed to an 8-year contract to bust your ass every year in a Red Sox uniform.

 

As far as the money goes, if you can get Santana now for an extra year and sign him to a contract that costs less money than he would get on the open market next year, that's more money you have available to sign players that will hopefully fill whatever gaps might have been opened up by trading for Santana in the first place.

 

Be realistic, people. If you want something that is awesome you are going to have to give up something that is awesome, not a couple pieces of pretty good or might work out for you.

[Guest NYankees]

The rumor going around is that the Twins aren't interested in Cano or Wang due to the Twins being very cheap. They wouldn't want to have to pay either player what they are soon going to make. Each player could make at the very least 10 million on the open market if they were free agents.

[Guest RyechnaiaSobaka]

The rumor going around is that the Twins aren't interested in Cano or Wang due to the Twins being very cheap. They wouldn't want to have to pay either player what they are soon going to make. Each player could make at the very least 10 million on the open market if they were free agents.

 

I don't know if what you have said is true, though I suspect it is. I would not call the Twins "cheap," though. They just don't have the kind of money available that a team like the Yankees or the Red Sox do. The Twins have typically been, along with the A's, a team that is very competitive year in and year out with a low payroll. I think it's smart not to trade one of their most valuable players for a couple years' rental of a second baseman and a starting pitcher. They've got to get some guys they can control at a low cost for several years to make this worth it. I think it's smart, not "cheap," and I say that as somebody who rejects a lot of what passes for "smart" (see: smallball) in baseball.

[mike546 0]

Rod Diddle is jealous

 

 

I'm friends with his daughter, she goes to my school.

 

Anyway, I feel like in the end this trade isn't going to go down. I don't think the Yanks are going to part with Hughes.

[Brett Favre 0]

Santana ain't going to get less than market value. He's looking for 25 million a year.

 

The Twins have already put out that they are interested in high A Austin Jackson. Tabata and Jackson are highly touted prospects.

 

According to numerous people they want one of the big three, Melky, and another prospect (probably Jackson). You have time to get them to take Kennedy over Hughes. The Red Sox aren't parting with Ellsbury. And what's the point of trading for Santana when in 2 years Beckett will want the same salary? Do you really think Boston will pay two guys 25 million in their starting five? I don't think so. The Yankees don't have to give up too much because they're in the best position.

[Guest RyechnaiaSobaka]

Santana ain't going to get less than market value. He's looking for 25 million a year.

 

The Twins have already put out that they are interested in high A Austin Jackson. Tabata and Jackson are highly touted prospects.

 

According to numerous people they want one of the big three, Melky, and another prospect (probably Jackson). You have time to get them to take Kennedy over Hughes. The Red Sox aren't parting with Ellsbury. And what's the point of trading for Santana when in 2 years Beckett will want the same salary? Do you really think Boston will pay two guys 25 million in their starting five? I don't think so. The Yankees don't have to give up too much because they're in the best position.

 

The Yankees only have to give up enough to prevent other teams from getting him. Or they could hope the Twins don't trade him at all, which means they would definitely be able to sign him as a free agent because they'll probably be the only team really willing to pay him that kind of money.

 

As far as Santana wanting $25mil per season, I don't know what to say to that. Barry Zito is looking at $18mil per season under his contract with the Giants. Do you think Santana is worth $7mil more per season compared to Zito?

 

Let's say the Yankees trade for him now and sign him to a 6-year contract at $150mil. That's $25mil per season like he's asking for. You don't think if he gets to the open market next year he could swing 7 years, $200mil with a full on competition between the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, and maybe the Dodgers or some other team that decides they can/will spend money all of the sudden? I think it could absolutely happen.

[Guest Smues]

Mike Hampton is hurt again. Film at 11.