MLB Off-season Thread

[Guest RyechnaiaSobaka]

I'm sorry, am I the only person crude enough to not want Jon Lester in a trade due to that whole, you know, cancer thing?

[Guest Pizza Hut's Game Face]

When did Cheech go from verbally communicating to just WARP-VORP-FLORP? I'm a number advocate too, but you're like Al Keiper Jr. all of a sudden.

[Guest RyechnaiaSobaka]

When did Cheech go from verbally communicating to just WARP-VORP-FLORP? I'm a number advocate too, but you're like Al Keiper Jr. all of a sudden.

 

Are you sure you're not a hack sports columnist for a shitty newspaper somewhere with that "FLORP" reference? BARF or POOP can't be too far behind.

[MarvinisaLunatic 0]

The hot rumor on OH is Joe Saunders and Brandon Wood from the Angels for Tejada.

 

 

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

The hot rumor on OH is Joe Saunders and Brandon Wood from the Angels for Tejada.

Heard that on XM. That would be mind-bogglingly stupid from the Angels' viewpoint. Wood will probably be as good as Tejada within two seasons.

[KingPK 0]

I'm sorry, am I the only person crude enough to not want Jon Lester in a trade due to that whole, you know, cancer thing?

 

Why? Afraid he'll infect the rest of the team or something?

[Guest RyechnaiaSobaka]

I agree with Al. Dumb trade for the Angels. If they trade Reggie Willits because of the Hunter signing, that'll be another dumb move.

[Guest]

I'm sorry, am I the only person crude enough to not want Jon Lester in a trade due to that whole, you know, cancer thing?

 

Why? Afraid he'll infect the rest of the team or something?

Or that he'll die? I agree, I don't think I'd trade for him either.

[Mik 0]

Wood is one of the potential pieces coming back to the Marlins if they complete the Cabrera trade.

 

On ESPN earlier Jayson Stark said that they agree that Kendrick and Jeff Mathis would be part of any deal and they are just trying to figure out which two pitchers come back, but I never really believe anything he says.

 

Kendrick/Mathis/Adenhart and whoever else and I don't hate it that much.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Let me address the +/- fielding statistics. There is NO subjectivity involved in the statistic. Baseball Info Solutions employs a team of stringers to watch every Major League Baseball game during the season. When a ball is hit they mark the ball's trajectory (fly, liner, etc.), velocity and direction. From there, either a fielder made a play or he did not. At this point, all we're doing is counting events. What the plus/minus system does is take a player's success rate at fielding balls hit to various points of the field, and compare them to the league average. If a particular ball is fielded successfully 75% of the time and a fielder completes it more often, that's a point in his favor. Simple as that, and as objective as any other statistical system.

 

My only quibble with the system is that I think the scores themselves are not necessarily indicative of any value in regards to runs scored. A third baseman missing a ball to his right is a double, one to his left is a single. An outfielder missing a ball in front of him is a single, behind him a double/triple, etc. And I think all fielding systems miss opportunity costs. Specifically, a missed play also brings another batter to the plate.

 

I do this exact process on the minor league level for Baseball Info Solutions, and I can tell you it's not terribly complicated or involved.

[MarvinisaLunatic 0]

The hot rumor on OH is Joe Saunders and Brandon Wood from the Angels for Tejada.

Heard that on XM. That would be mind-bogglingly stupid from the Angels' viewpoint. Wood will probably be as good as Tejada within two seasons.

 

I read further into the thread with updated info that the Angels are now interested in Santana from the Twins which would take them out of being interested in Tejada and Miguel Cabrera.

[Smartly Pretty 0]

Oh, see, it was explained to me as some guy saying "well he should have made that play so it's a minus 1"

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Oh, see, it was explained to me as some guy saying "well he should have made that play so it's a minus 1"

 

Me, from earlier in this thread:

 

Subjective? It's the farthest thing from subjective.

 

Did you not read that every single batted ball is charted and recorded into a computer system. For instance, a ball hit towards a third baseman might be recorded as something like "5 feet to the right of the bag, 6 feet above the ground travelling at x mph caught by 3B." That piece of data goes into the system.

 

Once the data is compiled, it can be used to award credits or demerits based on one's peers. If a ball hit to a fielder is typically fielded by 70% of one's peers and the player misses it, he gets a demerit of -.7 (1.00 - .30). In other words, on that play he was 70% worse than the typical outfielder in MLB. If he makes it, he gets a credit of +.3 (1.00 -.70). He was better than 30% of players on that batted ball.

 

Over the course of the year, all plays are added for a total score.

 

It's definitely not fool proof, but it's a step in the right direction. It lacks park adjustments. It measures in terms of percentages instead of runs. It has nothing in terms of win probability. Flaws are there indeed, but measuring every play and using that to evaluate a fielder is a breakthrough that stats guys have been waiting to have for years.

 

I obviously don't have access to any of their proprietary information regarding how they collect or interpret the data, but I would think that all the things mentioned in your post would be recorded. The FB measures outcomes... it wouldn't matter if you got there by positioning, accuracy or arm strength. Did you or did you not make the play? What did other players in the league at your position do with the exact same batted ball in the same situation? How do you compare to your peers at fielding this play?

 

The thing that I find intriguing about there info is that it seems to match the player's reputations well and compares favorably with THT's RZR/OOZ numbers. It passes the sniff test. It's not like BP's defensive numbers, which never seem to make a lick of sense.

 

 

[devo 0]

The Astros sign Kaz Matsui to three year deal worth either fifteen or sixteen million.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/11/astr...1.html#comments

 

Good luck with that, Houston.

[Mike wanna be 0]

Ugh, it's not even December and I'm sick of hearing about the Twins and their trade talks.

 

Who gives a shit what prospects you get for Santana, you'll just trade them away in three years because your front office is a bunch of cheapskates who can't seem to put together the "Winning ballclub + talented, charismatic young players = profitable franchise" equation. I can't wait until Liriano, Morneau and Mauer go on the block. They probably would have Liriano there already if not for the elbow blowout.

 

On that note: Minaya, for god's sake bring in Santana and any other Twin you can get your hands on. Give up whatever you have to, and trade cheap veterans for them in three years when they want to renegotiate with the Twins and get lowballed to high heaven.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Buster Olney reporting that the Yankees are close to a deal with Mark Loretta. Seems like an odd deal to me with Betemit already on the roster to back up the infield positions. Perhaps Betemit or Cano is on the move?

[Brett Favre 0]

Maybe, but Betemit is abysmal against lefty pitchers. That may be one reason.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Ugh, it's not even December and I'm sick of hearing about the Twins and their trade talks.

 

Who gives a shit what prospects you get for Santana, you'll just trade them away in three years because your front office is a bunch of cheapskates who can't seem to put together the "Winning ballclub + talented, charismatic young players = profitable franchise" equation. I can't wait until Liriano, Morneau and Mauer go on the block. They probably would have Liriano there already if not for the elbow blowout.

 

The Twins are a very profitable franchise. Carl Pohlad seems to be a cheap owner, but he's a successful businessman and he keeps his team firmly in the black every year. If you look at that team, he's always been committed to putting a winner on the field, regardless of payroll. They've been the best team in that division for the past decade and probably one of the best teams in baseball.

 

It's not that they are even being that cheap. They offered Santana a 5 years, $90 million extension. In a world without Barry Zito, that'd be the richest contract given to a pitcher. Yeah, he's the best in baseball, but they gave him a monster offer. No need to blow out your payroll because Brian Sabean torched the market for SP.

 

You can't give Santana $150 million, then turn around and give Morneau $100 and Mauer $125, or whatever it will cost to sign these guys up long-term. Trading Santana now gives them the opportunity to keep the team competitive for many years. It's the right move.

 

Besides, he's not the only elite talent on the market. Miguel Cabrera, Miguel Tejada, Erik Bedard and Dan Haren are all available. Where's the vitriol for their owners?

[The Man in Blak 0]

And I think all fielding systems miss opportunity costs. Specifically, a missed play also brings another batter to the plate.

 

Just a random curiosity, but couldn't they approximate the opportunity cost associated with those misses by factoring the change in run expectancy (as well as any runs that scored on the play to offset a "decrease" in run expectancy - e.g. a bases-clearing double) into the calculation?

[Guest NYankees]

Mets traded Milledge to the Nationals for Ryan Church.

[TheDevilAndGodAreRagingInsideMe 0]

The same Lastings Milledge that Met fans refused to give up for Barry Zito two years ago?

[Precious Roy 0]

Ryan Church and Brian Schneider. I just came in here to post that.

[Brett Favre 0]

And Brian Schneider.

[Guest NYankees]

What do the A's fans think of Haren being on the trade block?

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

And I think all fielding systems miss opportunity costs. Specifically, a missed play also brings another batter to the plate.

 

Just a random curiosity, but couldn't they approximate the opportunity cost associated with those misses by factoring the change in run expectancy (as well as any runs that scored on the play to offset a "decrease" in run expectancy - e.g. a bases-clearing double) into the calculation?

 

I was thinking about the same thing last night. They've already done all the work on determining whether or not the play was fieldable. Just pull a run expectancy table and look at the projected runs scored for the base/out situation before and after the event. From there, you'd just multiply the change in run expectancy by percentage number who fielded/didn't field the play. The outcome would be a value, expressed in runs, for a defensive play (obivously dumbing down the math here).

 

You could even factor the defensive plays into a win probability model to account for leverage. Why hasn't anyone done this?

[Brett Favre 0]

That trade sucks ass for the Mets. They should've tried getting Joe Blanton at least for Milledge.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

What the hell is Omar Minaya doing? That's a ridiculously bad trade. Church is decent, but he's already 28 and probably not going to be much more than a really good 4th outfielder. Schneider's great defensively and has a reputation for working well with his pitchers, but he can't hit a lick and he's definitely not worth a toolsy OF with tremendous upside. I guess Randolph really disliked Lastings.

 

Well Lastings and Kazmir can hang out in the too immature for NY club.

 

EDIT: Just realized that Nationals snagged Jesus Flores from the Mets in the Rule V draft last year, which made Schneider expendable. So the Nationals just double raped the Mets?

 

How the hell are they are going to fix their pitching now? What other commodity can they part with? Unless they feel that Church can be moved along in a package, this doesn't make a ton of sense.

[Guest RyechnaiaSobaka]

Besides, he's not the only elite talent on the market. Miguel Cabrera, Miguel Tejada, Erik Bedard and Dan Haren are all available. Where's the vitriol for their owners?

 

Well, let's see. Sabean is saying that Florida is being unreasonable in their demands in a trade for Miguel Cabrera. Florida has always had a reputation for being a team that trades away all their talent after putting together a successful team. They won the World Series twice and traded away their best players afterwards both times. They're always, always talking about trading their best players. How long until Hanley Ramirez starts being discussed? Seriously.

 

Peter Angelos is considered to be one of the worst owners in the entire league. He is criticized regularly for idiot decisions with respect to the Orioles. Trading Tejada is probably not a problem, though they are also apparently considering trading Melvin Mora to the Phillies. Bedard is a good player, but I heard they're asking for a bit too much in return for him and/or the Orioles do not value Lastings Milledge and Aaron Heilman as much as the Mets do.

 

Dan Haren - I'm surprised you even said that to tell you the truth. Billy Beane's "Moneyball" system has been torn up by every hack sports journalist in the country. Remember how big of an idiot he was for trading Mulder to the Cardinals for Haren? Yeah, so now that Haren turned out to be fucking awesome and Mulder's a pile of crap, he's thinking about trading Haren too. Do you really think he wouldn't get something else that was awesome in return? And do you really think that people wouldn't go bonkers (again) when he did it?

 

Come on. All three of those owners, I think, have a worse reputation than Pohlad and the Twins.

 

[devo 0]

Ryan Church and Brian Schneider? Are you fucking kidding me?

 

For all his personality problems, Johnny Estrada is probably overall as good (if not better than) Schneider, and even though I like Ryan Church a lot, he's more than likely reached his potential whereas Lastings Milledge is only going to get better and is already as valuable a corner outfielder as Church.

 

What a disappointment. I wait for years to see what'll eventually happen to Milledge and this is what I get. Christ almighty.

[Guest RyechnaiaSobaka]

What the hell is Omar Minaya doing? That's a ridiculously bad trade. Church is decent, but he's already 28 and probably not going to be much more than a really good 4th outfielder. Schneider's great defensively and has a reputation for working well with his pitchers, but he can't hit a lick and he's definitely not worth a toolsy OF with tremendous upside. I guess Randolph really disliked Lastings.

 

Well Lastings and Kazmir can hang out in the too immature for NY club.

 

EDIT: Just realized that Nationals snagged Jesus Flores from the Mets in the Rule V draft last year, which made Schneider expendable. So the Nationals just double raped the Mets?

 

How the hell are they are going to fix their pitching now? What other commodity can they part with? Unless they feel that Church can be moved along in a package, this doesn't make a ton of sense.

 

Church is valuable to some teams. Milledge was apparently not liked very much by some other teams the Mets were trying to make trades with (I'm looking at you, Baltimore). It's possible they could move him along. He doesn't fit the profile of a Mets player (he's not Latino) for one thing. Neither does Brian Schneider, of course.

 

If you really want to figure something out, how about telling me why they just signed Johnny Estrada and re-signed Ramon Castro so they could go trade for Brian Schneider.

 

I don't necessarily like Milledge that much, nor do I know if the Nationals will hold on to him as opposed to trying to move him for pitching or something else, but God damn - this was an awful trade for the Mets.