MLB Off-season Thread

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

I should do a separate essay on statistics one of these days. I think the big danger is that there are no end all, be all statistics to judge a player. You can translate WHIP, yes. But you still have the problems that it's limited sample sizes, it's only marginally useful when evaluating future performance, it includes hits which are subject to wide variation, and such. A statistic is only a piece of evidence towards the larger goal of judging a player.

 

I am at the point where I will cite a statistic when necessary. But the audience generally doesn't understand or particularly care about the statistic. They can do the legwork themselves if they need. What's important is the opinion or evaluation provided after the statistics.

 

 

I generally agree with this. One of the main problems is that statistics get used errantly to back up false premises. The introduction of a statistic to a discussion should be there to illuminate a point, not create one. They should at the minimum satisfy two requirements. Is it (the statistic) reliable? Does it measure something of substance?

 

I know that I get a little numbers happy from time to time, but I'm just trying to add another level of analysis. For instance, my post on Latroy Hawkins earlier. Everyone knows Hawkins sucks, but his numbers looked good last year. I tried to answer why (he puts a lot of balls in play and those balls put in play turned into outs at a higher rate than they should have).

 

It's perplexing that Czech thinks I'm stumping for FJM. If anything, I think I've been less of a saber nerd lately than in the past. At least I've been attempting to show restraint in trying to make myself look good by killing other posters with numbers they probably wouldn't understand.

[Guest RyechnaiaSobaka]

Also, FJM is maybe the funniest site on the Internet, so there's worse things in the world you could be doing even if that was the case.

[Bored 0]

Here's a statistic: 29 posts either directly about LaTroy Hawkins or that in some way related to the original post about the Hawkins' signing. That's about 28 posts too many for any middle reliever.

[Smartly Pretty 0]

I don't think this of any of you, but there are definitely people I've run into who haven't set foot on a baseball diamond who think they know a ton about baseball because they know what VORP is.

[Guest My Pal, the Tortoise]

I suck at baseball and I think VORP is a silly statistic because it measures a real player against a fictitious one. Now what do I do?

[tominator89 0]

I suck at baseball and I think VORP is a silly statistic because it measures a real player against a fictitious one. Now what do I do?

 

Just do what I do: make evaluations based on watching actual games.

 

After watching almost every Phillies game, year in and year out, I tend to have a decent view of who sucks and who doesn't.

[Fuzzy Dunlop 0]

Why does someone have to "set foot on a baseball diamond" to know about baseball?

[Smartly Pretty 0]

You're looking at that the wrong way. What I mean is that there are people who think they know baseball just because they can rattle off sabermetrics, and these people know nothing of baseball other than sabermetrics.

[TheDevilAndGodAreRagingInsideMe 0]

To further the LaTroy Hawkins banter, the Yankees have now had both the loser of the 1998 Wells perfect game (Hawkins) and the 1999 Cone perfect game (Javier Vazquez) on the roster after the fact.

[Guest RyechnaiaSobaka]

Why does someone have to "set foot on a baseball diamond" to know about baseball?

 

This is kind of like the opposite of Joe Morgan's favorite argument, which is that those who haven't played baseball can't possibly teach him anything about the game.

 

I don't think it's terribly controversial to say that you should have probably played baseball, at least when you were a kid, if you're going to claim to "know about" it. Personally, I stopped playing baseball when I hit double-digits just about. I played tee-ball and little league (excepting the occasional softball game which I've been happy to play into adulthood), but I've been a fan for what seems like forever. I can't think of a time when I've thought or claimed that I would be able to do the things on the diamond that professional baseball players can do. I know better than that, unlike some drunks out there (anyone who's been to an MLB game and sat in the cheap seats knows the people I'm talking about).

 

If one has to have played a sport competitively for a certain period of time in order to be able to comment on it, I might have to shut up about baseball and start participating only in hockey threads, as I played that competitively into and through high school. I know of no metrics for evaluating hockey players, really, so it'd be a lot less "stat heavy." When I played, the only stat I ever worried about for myself (besides wins and losses) was +/-. I wanted to make sure that, when I was on the ice, my team was scoring more goals than it had scored on it. But that's because I was a defensive-minded forward. Maybe part of the reason why some baseball writers and fans place so much focus on things like wins and losses, and saying that nothing else matters but the win column, is because they are living vicariously through their favorite players and teams?

 

I've had my theories about players who I've watched - like when I would watch Yevgenii Malkin play for Metallurg Magnitogorsk on РТР-Спорт, a Russian television channel - that turned out to be quite wrong. (I thought Malkin might struggle in the NHL because he was very sloppy with his play in the Russian Superleague, since his talent level was so much higher than his competition.)

 

Statistics help humans not make asses out of themselves by totally botching it or getting things wrong based on their perceptions or "gut instincts," because at least they can say, if they were wrong, that there were hard measurements that served as evidence for the opinion.

 

Of course, we're not really debating techniques for hitting a breaking ball or tracking a pop fly. So there's a difference between saying "this player is better than that player because x y z" and saying what a lot of morons say who otherwise don't begin to give a crap about sabermetrics or anything else (I'm thinking your average sports bar patron) - things like "why does he always swing for a home run?" or "why can't he just hit the ball in the gap?" or "how hard can it be to throw a fucking strike?"

[Dobbs 3K 0]

I suck at baseball and I think VORP is a silly statistic because it measures a real player against a fictitious one. Now what do I do?

 

I actually agree with you on this. It's like "OK, this guy our team has sucks, let's trade for his replacement. Oh wait, there isn't one."

[Dobbs 3K 0]

Not sure if anyone mentioned this, but royals.com has pics of the Royals' new powder blue alternate jerseys.

 

"It won't win them a championship, blah blah blah"...seriously, those look pretty neat. Very retro. I bet they sell quite a few.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

I suck at baseball and I think VORP is a silly statistic because it measures a real player against a fictitious one. Now what do I do?

 

I actually agree with you on this. It's like "OK, this guy our team has sucks, let's trade for his replacement. Oh wait, there isn't one."

That's not quite the theory. The idea is that the replacement level represents the production you would get from freely available talent, guys you would not have to give up appreciable talent to acquire.

[Dobbs 3K 0]

Well, that's the thing. There is no "freely available talent" typically at that level, so it's kind of a moot point.

[Guest RyechnaiaSobaka]

Not sure if anyone mentioned this, but royals.com has pics of the Royals' new powder blue alternate jerseys.

 

"It won't win them a championship, blah blah blah"...seriously, those look pretty neat. Very retro. I bet they sell quite a few.

 

See the uniforms here.

 

What is it about powder blue uniforms that just makes people go bananas? Remember how happy people would get about the Chargers' powder blue uniforms? Strange. It's like that color triggers happy emotions or something in sports fans.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Well, that's the thing. There is no "freely available talent" typically at that level, so it's kind of a moot point.

 

 

There are plenty of minor league free agents, waiver wire fodder, independent league guys, players in Japan and so forth that can post a marginal level of offense with average defense. There are literally hundreds of ballplayers that can be had for close to the minor league minimum that won't put up an embarrassing level of perfomance at the major league level and are essentially free (won't cost you talent, draft picks or money beyond the minimum). VORP measures the amount of batting runs created by the player over what this theoretical player would likely post given the same batting opportunities.

 

It's not perfect, but at its heart it measures something tangible and represents one of the most basic concepts of baseball. As one moves down the defensive spectrum, there is a certain level of offensive gain that must be met in order to differentiate from the increasing mass of players that can play that position adequately. It's very good for comparing players across positions in terms of actual value.

[Fartsauce 0]

I haven't had time to read much of the thread. Are the Jays planning on doing anything? Is Burnett being shopped?

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

I haven't had time to read much of the thread. Are the Jays planning on doing anything? Is Burnett being shopped?

 

 

They've made inquiries on Erik Bedard and Tim Lincecum using Alex Rios as the bait. Doesn't sound like they have the parts to make either deal work. They want to move Troy Glaus but are having difficulty finding anyone who'll take the contract.

 

Burnett is most certainly on the block, but it's going to be hard to move him do to his contract. He has an opt out clause after next year. So if he's good, you only get him for a year but if he sucks you are stuck with the contract. That's a hard sell, especially when the Blue Jays would be more interested in keeping him around if they can't get a package that makes them better.

[Fartsauce 0]

I don't understand why J.P has this fascination of moving Rios. He keeps getting better and better.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

I don't understand why J.P has this fascination of moving Rios. He keeps getting better and better.

 

 

It's mostly because he gave Vernon Wells that huge contract last year which makes Rios expendable. The only reason he wants to move him is because he knows that it's the only valuable trade commodity that he has to work with. If moving Rios solves your problems in the rotation, then you do it. Of course, he's not going to get Bedard or Lincecum by offering just Rios so it's mostly a non-starter in negotations.

[Guest My Pal, the Tortoise]

What is it about powder blue uniforms that just makes people go bananas? Remember how happy people would get about the Chargers' powder blue uniforms? Strange. It's like that color triggers happy emotions or something in sports fans.

I think it's a few things. In an age brought on by the Raiders and White Sox where everybody wears black to appear "intimidating," the idea of a team wearing pastel blue is so delightfully idiosyncratic that it has to be embraced. (I'm willing to bet the Nordiques made a few long-distance Anglophone fans this way.) Also, a it's fairly rare color in sports, at least until the Nuggets, Grizzlies, and Jazz all decided to wear dark blue and light blue at like the exact same time. Third, the '85 Royals wore garish powder blue, so it'll trigger fuzzy memories of Brett and Quisenberry and so forth. Fourth, it is a happy, pleasant color to look at.

 

My thoughts: the script on the front should be white outlined in blue like everything else on there, because right now it's too hard to read. Also, as cool as it looks, I really hope this doesn't trigger a whole handful of teams wearing powder blue again, because it's only aesthetically pleasing in small and specific doses. If the Phillies, Cardinals, Brewers, Twins, Blue Jays, and Mariners all start wearing powder blue again, it'll be too much for my TV to handle, to say nothing about the blood-clot Indians, pumpkin Orioles, or banana Pirates. The Royals are mitigating things by wearing it as a home alternate with white pants, rather than with matching powder blue pants, so that's nice.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

From Baseball Think Factory:

 

The Baseball Writers Association of America voted yesterday to open up its membership for the first time to web-based baseball writers. Qualified candidates were required to be “full-time baseball writers who work for websites that are credentialed by MLB for post-season coverage.”

 

Sixteen of the 18 nominations were recommended for approval: Scott Miller from CBS Sportsline; Jim Caple, Jerry Crasnick, Peter Gammons, Tim Kurkjian, Amy Nelson, Buster Olney, and Jayson Stark from ESPN; Ken Rosenthal from FoxSports; John Donovan, Jon Heyman, and Tom Verducci from SI; and Tim Brown, Steve Henson, Jeff Passan, and Dan Wetzel from Yahoo.

 

After combing through the list, my first reaction was “what about Rob Neyer?” Well, as it turns out, Rob’s nomination was one of two that were turned down. How can that be? Isn’t Rob full time? Is he not a baseball writer? Is ESPN not “credentialed” for the post-season? I don’t get it.

 

While I’m happy for the 16 web-based writers who were approved (many of whom had previously been members for years, if not decades), it doesn’t make sense to exclude one of the most thoughtful, knowledgeable, and level-headed writers in the business. Rob gets it. Unfortunately, the BBWAA didn’t get it quite right this time.

 

I commend the BBWAA for opening up its membership beyond the newspaper industry and am hopeful that the organization will see fit to approve Rob and many others inside and outside of ESPN, CBS, FoxSports, SI, and Yahoo in the future.

 

Turns out Keith Law was the other writer denied membership. What a bunch of horse shit.

[Guest RyechnaiaSobaka]

From Baseball Think Factory:

 

The Baseball Writers Association of America voted yesterday to open up its membership for the first time to web-based baseball writers. Qualified candidates were required to be “full-time baseball writers who work for websites that are credentialed by MLB for post-season coverage.”

 

Sixteen of the 18 nominations were recommended for approval: Scott Miller from CBS Sportsline; Jim Caple, Jerry Crasnick, Peter Gammons, Tim Kurkjian, Amy Nelson, Buster Olney, and Jayson Stark from ESPN; Ken Rosenthal from FoxSports; John Donovan, Jon Heyman, and Tom Verducci from SI; and Tim Brown, Steve Henson, Jeff Passan, and Dan Wetzel from Yahoo.

 

After combing through the list, my first reaction was “what about Rob Neyer?” Well, as it turns out, Rob’s nomination was one of two that were turned down. How can that be? Isn’t Rob full time? Is he not a baseball writer? Is ESPN not “credentialed” for the post-season? I don’t get it.

 

While I’m happy for the 16 web-based writers who were approved (many of whom had previously been members for years, if not decades), it doesn’t make sense to exclude one of the most thoughtful, knowledgeable, and level-headed writers in the business. Rob gets it. Unfortunately, the BBWAA didn’t get it quite right this time.

 

I commend the BBWAA for opening up its membership beyond the newspaper industry and am hopeful that the organization will see fit to approve Rob and many others inside and outside of ESPN, CBS, FoxSports, SI, and Yahoo in the future.

 

Turns out Keith Law was the other writer denied membership. What a bunch of horse shit.

 

I'd like to nominate Ken Tremendous next year. I'm sure you will agree.

 

[devo 0]

Lo Duca signs a one year deal with Washington worth about five million.

 

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/nationalsjournal/

 

I've got a baaaaad feeling about the Mets/Nats season series.

[Guest RyechnaiaSobaka]

Lo Duca signs a one year deal with Washington worth about five million.

 

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/nationalsjournal/

 

I've got a baaaaad feeling about the Mets/Nats season series.

 

Now the question is whether they will demote Jesus Flores to Triple-A so he can play every day.

 

The Washington Post's Barry Svrluga believes the Nationals offered Felipe Lopez and either Chad Cordero or Jon Rauch to the Padres for Khalil Greene and were turned down.

 

That wasn't going to do it. The Padres seem to generate a couple of new quality relievers every year, so they're not going to part with a key player for a setup man. The Nationals will keep looking for other ways to improve their middle infield. As things stand now, they're looking at Lopez at second, with Ronnie Belliard as the backup, and Cristian Guzman at short.

 

Why are they still using Cristian Guzman as a starter? Belliard at second and Lopez at short seems like a much better way to do this anyway.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

So the Mets and Nationals switch catchers and Washington ends up with Lastings Milledge for their troubles? What a disaster for Omar Minaya.

[Guest RyechnaiaSobaka]

So the Mets and Nationals switch catchers and Washington ends up with Lastings Milledge for their troubles? What a disaster for Omar Minaya.

 

Hey dude. You forgot Ryan Church. I mean, it's Ryan Church. He will totally hit like 45 doubles and 15 home runs if you just, uh, don't send him to Triple-A. That's equal to Milledge, right? Right?

[Guest My Pal, the Tortoise]

He'll also get mad at you for not being an evangelical Christian!

[Guest RyechnaiaSobaka]

He'll also get mad at you for not being an evangelical Christian!

 

Hey, that wasn't his fault! He was just asking a question.

 

Besides, it's true.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Sounds like the Yankees will buy out the final year of Pavano's contract. Pavano, in turn, has agreed to take a minor league deal with the team during his rehab.