The College Football Thread 10/18-10/21

[iggymcfly 0]

Sorry Bored, but you were lagging behind on this one. You can still post the schedules if you want because I'm starting off the thread with my national championship breakdown by tiers. We're down to 18 teams that have any chance of making the BCS title game whatsoever and I'm ordering them from 1-18 in terms of who has the best chance if they win out. You can think of this as a ladder showing who has the best opportunity to make the championship with the teams either getting knocked down the ladder or off it completely with a loss.

 

 

Tier I: Just Win Baby

There are only two teams in the country right now that completely control their own destiny. If these two teams win out, no one else is going to make it, be they a 12-0 Boston College or an 11-1 LSU. Here are the teams that control their own destiny.

 

Arizona State (7-0): Yes, the Sun Devils are a ways back in the polls now and in the computers, but that can all change with their upcoming schedule as ASU still has games remaining against USC, Cal, and Oregon. Wins in all three of those would likely give Arizona State a #1 ranking and at the very least would put them #2. The downside is that their chances of making it through all those games unblemished are extremely low to the point that I wouldn't consider them even one of the 5 most likely teams to make the championship.

 

Ohio State (7-0): Sitting comfortably at #1, Ohio State is the other team that doesn't have to worry about what's happening around the country and can just focus on winning the remainder of their games. While it looks like they're in a close battle with USF for the top spot right now, and could conceivably fall if ASU runs the table, that's mainly a mirage as their tough remaining schedule with games against Penn St., Illinois, Wisconsin, and Michigan will lift them in the computers and solidify their hold on #1.

 

 

Tier II: The Frontrunners

Yes, the above teams are the only ones guaranteed to go to New Orleans if they win out. However, there are several more teams that are very likely yo get in if they win the remainder of their games to the point that many of them shouldn't even worry about their rank. Here are the other leaders who should make the title game if they take care of business:

 

South Florida (7-0): At #2 in the BCS and with some tough games remaining, the Bulls are >95% to make the BCS title game if they get to 12-0. They rose in the polls early to give themselves a foothold with the voters and also have the SOS to be favored by the computers. Thursday's road game against Rutgers may be the toughest test they face en route to the national title game.

 

Boston College (7-0): The Eagles are also in a great poll position despite facing a relatively weak schedule. While they could face some trouble from another undefeated, it would be almost impossible for them to get jumped by a one-loss team unless the voters have a major change of heart.

 

Kansas (6-0): The biggest handicap for the Jayhawks is early poll position. They didn't have any splashy games early and by the time they reached the Big XII championship (if they did), they could still be as low as #5 or #6 going into a showdown with Oklahoma. If they won that game, they'd get a big leap, but whether it would be enough to pass say a 13-0 Boston College squad is very debatable. I'm saying the Harris and Coaches Poll voters are stubborn enough that KU's probably going to need all the other undefeateds to lose to have a chance to move into the Top 2.

 

LSU (6-1): The combination of preseason hype and big wins should give LSU the benefit of the doubt over any other one-loss team. A road loss to Kentucky really isn't bad at all, and with the weak crop of undefeateds above them, getting to 12-1 should be enough to put the Tigers into the championship.

 

USC (5-1): As bad as USC's looked thus far, they still have a lot of opportunities to atone for their mistakes. Road games against Cal, Oregon, and Arizona State could go a long way toward proving that the Trojans are for real. If they get through that stretch of games unblemished, they probably deserve a shot at the title and the pollsters will be only too happy to give the benefit of the doubt to the brand name.

 

California (5-1): If California can beat UCLA, ASU, and USC after Longshore comes back, the loss to Oregon State with a backup QB will be all but forgotten. Honestly, I think they're more likely to go 9-3 than 11-1, but if they win out, they'd get the benefit of the doubt over any one-loss team except LSU.

 

South Carolina (6-1) The Cocks are already in a pretty good poll position and beating Florida and Tennessee before winning the SEC Title would be enough to put them on the forefront of everyone's mind. South Carolina's also in a unique position in that their only loss (to LSU) was a road game that they could avenge at a neutral site. Especially with what happened with Florida last year, there would be a huge uproar if a one-loss South Carolina team was left out for a one-loss team from a conference that was perceived to be weaker.

 

Kentucky (6-1): The win over LSU made them a player in the national scene and if the Wildcats beat Florida this weekend, win at Georgia, beat Tennesse, and win a rematch with LSU in the SECCG, it would be pretty hard to keep them out of the national title game. I don't think Oklahoma or Oregon would have the schedule to get in over the Cats.

 

 

Tier III: The Contenders

These are the teams that can't honestly they say have a 50/50 shot to make the championship if they win out. They're certainly in the race, but they're going to need a little bit of luck and some help from above to actually get in.

 

Oklahoma (6-1): The one thing really working in the Sooners' favor right now is inertia in the polls. They're currently ranked #4 in both the Harris poll and the coaches poll. The problem is that they're already ranked low in the computer polls and with their weak remaining schedule will have a hard time climbing. If a one-loss Pac-Ten team can get a decent amount of the voters to put them above OU, they should be able to pass them.

 

Oregon (5-1): Oregon's problem is that they don't have the big game left on the schedule that's going to give them instant credibility. They already lost to Cal and with USC falling fast, a win over the Trojans won't carry the same panache it once did. I originally had Oregon in the second tier, figuring they'd have to get in over Oklahoma just by virtue of playing in the Pac-Ten, but on further review, the pollsters that matter don't like the Ducks and UO may need the ASU to beat Cal and come into the Oregon game undefeated to actually be able to pass the Sooners.

 

Missouri (5-1): Like Kentucky, Missouri also has a chance to avenge their only loss in a conference championship game. They don't have the name value to make any big leaps, but should get in over a one-loss team from a weak BCS conference or over a 2-loss SEC team.

 

Florida (4-2): Even though the Gators are a ways back in the polls now, road dates with Kentucky and South Carolina, along with a rematch in the SEC championship game to possibly avenge one of their losses should allow the Gators to pass some teams if they win out. Memories of their national title victory are still fresh in voters' minds, and the story value of them coming back from a 4-2 start would also work in their favor.

 

West Virginia (5-1): Name value and a forgivable loss should give the Mountaineers a decent shot to get in despite the perception that play in a weak conference and a lack of any real big-name wins on the schedule.

 

Texas Tech (6-1): The Red Raiders are a long way from championship position right now, but with a narrow loss to Oklahoma State being their only blemish and with road dates vs. Missouri and Texas giving them a chance to get national exposure before the season-ending showdown with Oklahoma, Texas Tech can't be counted out. The timing on their remaining schedule is just barely enough to keep them in the third tier.

 

 

Tier IV: The Longshots

These teams while still technically in the race are going to need every single break to go their way. They will likely need the top teams to lose not once, but twice.

 

Cincinnatti (6-1): They're still in the Top 20 and have late-season showdowns against USF and West Virginia to move up, but when you have no name value, it's tough to make up for a loss this late in the season. They're going to need a ton of help to make it to New Orleans at this point. Their 34-3 win over Oregon State could potentially help them get in over a 2-loss Pac-Ten team however.

 

Hawaii (7-0): Do you see Hawaii getting in over a one-loss Ohio State team or a two-loss LSU squad? Me neither. They do have their early-season poll position working for them, but they'll need a lot more upsets from the top teams and they need Washington to play well the rest of the way too as their 2-4 record isn't going to impress anyone when the Warriors play them in the finale.

 

 

Eliminated last week: Connecticut, Illinois, Wisconsin, Texas A&M

[Guest]

I agree with all that.

[Bored 0]

Aww a man can't come home from work and have some dinner without someone stealing his threads.

 

Hey who would have thunk that we'd have a week featuring Miami/Florida State and USC/Notre Dame with both games being complete afterthoughts? Quick t.v. note, primary reverse mirror game for the 3:30/12:30 ESABCPN timeslot will be Michigan State/Ohio State with those of you getting that game will get Miami/FSU on ESPN2.

 

Network/Basic Cable Schedule

 

THURSDAY

#2 South Florida at Rutgers, 7:30/4:30 PM, ESPN

Utah at TCU, 8:00/5:00 PM, Versus

 

FRIDAY

Louisville at Connectciut, 8:00/5:00 PM, ESPN

 

SATURDAY

Penn State at Indiana, Noon/9:00 AM, ESPN

Iowa at Purdue, Noon/9:00 AM, ESPN2

#5 Oklahoma at Iowa State, 12:30 PM/9:30 AM, FSN

#22 Texas at Baylor, 12:30 PM/9:30 AM, Versus

 

#15 Florida at #7 Kentucky, 3:30/12:30 PM, CBS

#14 USC at Notre Dame, 3:30/12:30 PM, NBC

Michigan State at #1 Ohio State, 3:30/12:30 PM, ABC/ESPN2*

Miami at Florida State, 3:30/12:30 PM, ABC/ESPN2*

#24 Texas Tech at #16 Missouri, 3:30/12:30 PM, ABC*

#12 California at UCLA, 3:30/12:30 PM, ABC*

#13 Kansas at Colorado, 5:45/2:45 PM, ESPN

 

#25 Michigan at Illinois, 8:00/5:00 PM, ABC

#19 Virginia at Maryland, 8:00/5:00 PM, ESPN2

#17 Auburn at #4 LSU, 9:00/6:00 PM, ESPN

 

SUNDAY

Southern Miss at Marshall, 8:00/5:00 PM, ESPN

 

Digital Cable/Satellite/Gameplan Schedule

 

FRIDAY

Northwestern vs. Eastern Michigan, 7:30/4:30 PM, ESPNU

 

SATURDAY

Central Michigan at Clemson, Noon/9:00 AM, ESPNU

Northern Illinois at Wisconsin, Noon/9:00 AM, BTN*

North Dakota State at Minnesota, Noon/9:00 AM, BTN*

Army at Georgia Tech, Noon/9:00 AM, LFS*/GP

#23 Cincinnati at Pittsburgh, Noon/9:00 AM, GP

Miami of Ohio at Temple, Noon/9:00 AM, GP

#21 Tennessee at Alabama, 12:30 PM/9:30 AM/LFS*/GP

Wake Forest at Navy, 1:00 PM/10:00 AM, CSTV

Wyoming at Air Force, 2:00 PM/11:00 AM, Mtn.

Mississippi State at #9 West Virginia, 3:30/12:30 PM, GP

Buffalo at Syracuse, 4:00/1:00 PM, ESPNU

N.C. State at East Carolina, 4:30/1:30 PM, CSTV

Florida Atlantic at Louisiana-Lafayette, 5:00/2:00 PM, GP

Eastern Washington at BYU, 5:30/2:30 PM, Mtn.

Stanford at Arizona, 7:00/4:00 PM, FCS Pacific

Boise State at Louisiana Tech, 7:00/4:00 PM, GP

Ohio at Toledo, 7:00/4:00 PM, GP

#10 Oregon at Washington, 7:30/4:30 PM, FCS Atlantic

New Mexico at San Diego State, 8:30/5:30 PM, CSTV

 

All Other Div. I-A Games

 

SATURDAY

Vanderbilt at #6 South Carolina

Arkansas at Mississippi

Ball State at Western Michigan

Texas A&M at Nebraska

Memphis at Rice

Nevada at Utah State

North Texas at Troy

Arkansas State at Middle Tennessee

Bowling Green at Kent State

Tulsa at UCF

San Jose State at Fresno State

FIU at Louisiana-Monroe

Houston at UAB

Kansas State at Oklahoma State

Idaho at New Mexico State

Tulane at SMU

Colorado State at UNLV

[CanadianChris 0]

Buffalo at Syracuse, 4:00/1:00 PM, ESPNU

Normally I mark a W on the schedule here in pen, but Buffalo had to go and win two straight.

[cabbageboy 0]

I can't help but feel mild upset tonight with Rutgers over USF. I'm not sure that I want to see it though. A part of me would like USF to be unbeaten and #1 or 2 when U of L heads down to Tampa.

 

This Arizona St. stuff is sheer nonsense for a couple of reasons:

 

1. No way are they going undefeated. As noted they have USC, Cal, and Oregon left and AZ St. just isn't good enough to run the table.

 

2. If USF and OSU both run the table there's really no way for Arizona St. to leap those teams. ASU would end up like Auburn in 2004.

[mfn 0]

I can't help but feel mild upset tonight with Rutgers over USF. I'm not sure that I want to see it though. A part of me would like USF to be unbeaten and #1 or 2 when U of L heads down to Tampa.

 

This Arizona St. stuff is sheer nonsense for a couple of reasons:

 

1. No way are they going undefeated. As noted they have USC, Cal, and Oregon left and AZ St. just isn't good enough to run the table.

 

2. WHEN OSU runs the table there's really no way for Arizona St. to leap those teams. ASU would end up like Auburn in 2004.

 

edited for accuracy.

 

[cabbageboy 0]

OSU also has 5 top 50 opponents left on their schedule, so they may well lose to someone. I can't help but think this is like a 1995 and 96 era OSU team where they will run the table and get to Michigan and then lose that final game.

[Edwin MacPhisto 0]

If pressed, I'd guess Ohio State picks up two losses from here on out. The next 5 teams they play are the 5 best teams on their schedule. My national championship guess remains LSU/Oklahoma.

 

I can't decide if I'm going to the UVA/Maryland game or not. I could get a ticket pretty easily, but yeesh, College Park is a dump.

[HarleyQuinn 0]

Meh... too lazy to continue my FCS rankings but not my pimpage. Given the playoff structure, Top 25 rankings are kinda pointless anyhow.

 

FCS vs. FBS: North Dakota State (6-0) @ Minnesota

Grambling State (5-1) @ Jackson State (4-2)

Fordham (5-2) @ Lafayette (4-2)

Central Connecticut State (4-2) @ Wagner (5-1)

Elon (4-2) @ Wofford (6-1)

New Hampshire (4-2) @ Hofstra (6-0)

FCS vs. FBS: Eastern Washington (4-2) @ BYU

FCS Game Of The Week: McNeese State (6-0) @ Nicholls State (5-1)

Northern Iowa (6-0) @ Western Illinois (5-2)

 

[Edwin MacPhisto 0]

That's probably a terrible Minnesota team's last chance for a win this year. Bet they lose.

[HarleyQuinn 0]

That's probably a terrible Minnesota team's last chance for a win this year. Bet they lose.

 

Wouldn't surprise me much if North Dakota State wins but I have a feeling Minnesota will pull this one out.

 

North Dakota State (Scored: 247, Allowed: 122. PF = 41.17 vs. PA = 20.33)

Minnesota (Scored: 217, Allowed: 273. PF = 31.00 vs. PA = 39.00).

[cabbageboy 0]

This might sound kinda bad but I really don't want to see Oklahoma anywhere near a national title game. After the way they tanked in two national title games in the Jason White era (particularly the USC game) I have zero desire to see OU on that stage. I certainly don't want to see a title game rematch with LSU....the first game was one of the ugliest brawls I've ever seen.

[CanadianChris 0]

This might sound kinda bad but I really don't want to see Oklahoma anywhere near a national title game. After the way they tanked in two national title games in the Jason White era (particularly the USC game) I have zero desire to see OU on that stage. I certainly don't want to see a title game rematch with LSU....the first game was one of the ugliest brawls I've ever seen.

It's OK, it's safe to say things like that around here now.

[cabbageboy 0]

Anyway we'll know more about USF after tonight's game. There's just a feeling to me that this team is a bit...bogus. And it's not like I didn't see the games, I did see the Auburn game and the WVU game. Auburn wasn't exactly on any sort of roll when USF played them, having narrowly escaped Kansas St. and then losing to Miss St. after that USF game. In the Auburn game USF had 4 missed FGs, and you can't tell me that isn't going to cost them at some point.

 

And for all the talk that they dominated WVU...I'm not sure what game people were seeing there. I mostly saw USF punting and playing defense, with WVU having to use a backup QB (Pat White was hurt and ineffective). In fact WVU outgained them by about 200 yards in that game, but seemingly fucked up at EVERY opportunity to the tune of seven turnovers. It was an ugly, ugly game.

 

Right now USF does deserve their ranking based upon their wins, but I guess what I'm saying is that their key wins haven't astounded me in particular. I don't know if Rutgers is the team that can beat them though. If so it will be due to bluff and home field bravado since Rutgers has been almost as big of a flop this year as U of L (they've just lost to better teams at home). Teams with mediocre passing games don't seem to fare that well against USF. Where I see USF having trouble is with teams like Cincy and U of L, teams that actually have a high octane passing attack. In fact Cincy rolled USF last year, and Cincy is a lot better now than then.

[iggymcfly 0]

And for all the talk that they dominated WVU...I'm not sure what game people were seeing there. I mostly saw USF punting and playing defense, with WVU having to use a backup QB (Pat White was hurt and ineffective). In fact WVU outgained them by about 200 yards in that game, but seemingly fucked up at EVERY opportunity to the tune of seven turnovers. It was an ugly, ugly game.

 

This isn't quite true. WVU outgained them by 157 yards, due to having more possessions (from the turnovers) and getting garbage yards late. USF did dominate the balance of the game and led 21-6 late in the 4th quarter. Also, WVU only had 6 turnovers and USF had 4 themselves so there wasn't a huge difference.

 

With that said, I really have no idea about this Rutgers game tonight. Rutgers is a lot better than they've played thus far. and I think USF's probably about 55% at best to win tonight. I've been analyzing this game from all angles, but I really have no idea who's going to win.

[Secret Agent 0]

This might sound kinda bad but I really don't want to see Oklahoma anywhere near a national title game. After the way they tanked in two national title games in the Jason White era (particularly the USC game) I have zero desire to see OU on that stage. I certainly don't want to see a title game rematch with LSU....the first game was one of the ugliest brawls I've ever seen.

It's OK, it's safe to say things like that around here now.

 

I wouldn't call losing by a touchdown to LSU as tanking. That's just a loss and someone had to loose the game. Besides, it takes something to make two straight title games - win or loose. I am pulling for your boys to make a trip to that game this year, though.

 

As far as tonights game goes, I picked Rutgers so lets hope they deliver.

[devo 0]

Perhaps unsurprisingly, this USF/Rutgers game has turned out to be pretty darn good. USF's down three with the ball on Rutgers' 49 with 1:33 remaining.

 

Edit: Nevermind, interception. USF screws themselves with a bad sack and an offensive pass interference call that leads to a 4th and 37 and a ball-chucking scenario.

[MFer 0]

Well...that South Florida magic didn't last long.

[USC Wuz Robbed! 0]

Let's hope Ohio State lose so we have yet another upheaval of the rankings.

[iggymcfly 0]

That offensive PI call was bullshit. No way should the refs decide the game there. I mean he barely touched him.

[cabbageboy 0]

Well, this wasn't much of a shock tonight. I don't know how to feel about this really. On one hand I do want to see someone viewed as an interloper crash the BCS title game, yet I've thought USF was a bit of a fraud that was getting by on luck (not to mention playing the one top 10 team they have figured out, WVU).

 

That said, just take a look at the insanity the Big East turned into tonight. USF loses to Rutgers, but Rutgers lost to Cincy. U of L beat Cincy, but lost to fucking SYRACUSE...and man does that crap look disturbingly big now. Ah the hell with it, I think WVU still wins the league. They are the best team in the conf. when healthy anyway.

[Smartly Pretty 0]

I suppose UConn still has to play all of the higher profile big east teams, right? Because I'm pretty sure they're technically on top.

[cabbageboy 0]

U of L gets to put the bitchslap on UConn tomorrow night. If it was being played here I'd be worried, but it's on the road so U of L has a shot.

 

UConn has a pretty favorable schedule since they have U of L, Rutgers, and USF all at home soon. But that said, Cincy and WVU are both on the road and both will be beatdowns.

[Danville_Wrestling 0]

Well, this wasn't much of a shock tonight. I don't know how to feel about this really. On one hand I do want to see someone viewed as an interloper crash the BCS title game, yet I've thought USF was a bit of a fraud that was getting by on luck (not to mention playing the one top 10 team they have figured out, WVU).

 

That said, just take a look at the insanity the Big East turned into tonight. USF loses to Rutgers, but Rutgers lost to Cincy. U of L beat Cincy, but lost to fucking SYRACUSE...and man does that crap look disturbingly big now. Ah the hell with it, I think WVU still wins the league. They are the best team in the conf. when healthy anyway.

 

One of the things I always say about the Big East is that they hurt themselves by beating each other in a weird combination like you wrote about above. It's great from a "parity" perspective I suppose but it sucks when you want an undefeated team to emerge with a shot at the national title.

 

Just look to the Louisville over West Virginia, Rutgers over Louisville, West Virginia over Rutgers combination that happened last season.

[cabbageboy 0]

Oh man, if I am the Big East commish I would be so pissed at Rutgers. This is two years in a row they have wrecked a Big East title contender to basically do jack shit themselves. You forget that last year Rutgers was already beaten by Cincy before that WVU game. For all the blathering about Rutgers last year they really just did about what they were capable of doing and what they were really predicted to do (namely finish 3rd in the conf. and go to something like the Texas Bowl).

 

Last night was a game I could sit back and just watch....I dislike both teams.

[iggymcfly 0]

It's amazing that after all the shenanigans they've had in the early-season, Rutgers and Louisville will likely finish the day in a two-way tie for first in the Big East. Not as amazing as UConn being the only undefeated in the conference right now though I guess.

[cabbageboy 0]

I'm not counting the eggs before they are hatched. Let's face it, U of L lost to Syracuse. If that is possible, a loss to UConn is certainly possible. Get ready for a 6 way tie in the Big East though if U of L wins. If UConn wins they actually would have two big games coming up against Rutgers and USF.

[iggymcfly 0]

BTW, just looking up at my tier system, there are basically two elimination games this weekend that will trim the field at least down to 16:

Florida at Kentucky

Texas Tech at Missouri

 

The field actually should stay at 16 though, as Cal's the only other team that has a really tough game this week (at UCLA) and even if they lose that, they still wouldn't be completely out with games against ASU and USC still remaining to bolster their poll rankings. With that said, their chances of getting in with two losses are much better if they lose without Longshore than if they lose with him in the lineup. He's still questionable at this point for Saturday.

[MFer 0]

I don't look at South Florida as a fraud; they're just a team that happened to be #2 because a bunch of teams lost. It's still a great story, but they just weren't ready to take that next step. It's not like this was a bad loss either; they were facing a conference opponent on the road that was expected to be in the top-10 mix coming into the season, and it was a close game. Plus Rutgers had plenty of motivation (trying to right the ship after struggling the past couple games, a chance to knock of the #2 team, etc...). Now the BCS becomes even more interesting. Certainly, Ohio St. would make the BCS title game if they run the table (well...maybe not certainly, but it's hard for me to see them dropping more than 1 spot by the end), but would a 1-loss LSU or Pac-10 team jump an undefeated Boston College? It's not just the title game either, it's gonna be hard to tell who makes all the other BCS bowls.

[iggymcfly 0]

Certainly, Ohio St. would make the BCS title game if they run the table (well...maybe not certainly, but it's hard for me to see them dropping more than 1 spot by the end), but would a 1-loss LSU or Pac-10 team jump an undefeated Boston College? It's not just the title game either, it's gonna be hard to tell who makes all the other BCS bowls.

 

In that theoretical scenario, there's no way in hell BC gets jumped by a one-loss team. However, the scenario itself is pretty unlikely. Ohio State has far and away the best chance to finish the season undefeated, and even they are <50% to get to 12-0. BC's <50% to even make it through their next game undefeated. If you really want to know who's in line to make the title game in what order though, you can just look at my first post in this thread. The only difference after Thursday is that you can drop South Florida from the top of the 2nd tier to the bottom of the 3rd tier.