The College Football Thread 11/20 - 11/24

[Bored 0]

So who had Missouri/Kansas in the Biggest Game of the Year pool? It's a huuuuuuge week even without that game. We have a very rare important game on Thanksgiving in USC/ASU with Rose Bowl implications, then there's Boise State/Hawaii on Friday with a possible BCS bid on the line, early Saturday is Virginia Tech/Virginia with the winner going to the ACC Championship Game, Tennessee/Kentucky will decide the SEC East winner, and the winner of UConn/West Virginia clinches the Big East.

 

And I will cry if Stanford loses to Notre Dame.

 

Network/Basic Cable Schedule

 

TUESDAY

Middle Tennessee at Troy, 7:00/4:00 PM, ESPN2

 

THURSDAY

#11 USC at #6 Arizona State, 8:00/5:00 PM, ESPN

 

FRIDAY

Nebraska at Colorado, Noon/9:00 AM, ABC

 

Arkansas at # 1 LSU, 2:30 PM/11:30 AM, CBS

#13 Texas at Texas A&M, 3:30/12:30 PM, ABC

 

#19 Boise State at #15 Hawaii, 9:00/6:00 PM, ESPN2

 

SATURDAY

Miami at #14 Boston College, Noon/9:00 AM, ESPN

#8 Virginia Tech at #16 Virginia, Noon/9:00 AM, ESPN2

#18 Tennessee at Kentucky, 1:30 PM/10:30 AM, CBS

Utah at #25 BYU, 2:00 PM/11:00 AM, Versus

 

#20 Connecticut at #3 West Virginia, 3:30/12:30 PM, ABC/ESPN2*

#7 Georgia at Georgia Tech, 3:30/12:30 PM, ABC/ESPN2*

#9 Oregon at UCLA, 3:30/12:30 PM, ABC*

Notre Dame at Stanford, 3:30/12:30 PM, ESPN

Kansas State at Fresno State, 3:30/12:30 PM, ESPN2*

Oklahoma State at #10 Oklahoma, 3:30/12:30 PM, FSN

Florida State at #12 Florida, 5:00/2:00 PM CBS

 

#22 Clemson at South Carolina, 7:00/4:00 PM, ESPN2

Washington State at Washington, 7:00/4:00 PM, FSN

#4 Missouri vs. #2 Kansas, 8:00/5:00 PM, ABC

Alabama at Auburn, 8:00/5:00 PM ESPN

 

Digital Cable/Satellite/Gameplan Schedule

 

FRIDAY

Central Michigan at Akron, 11:00 AM/8:00 AM, ESPNU

Mississippi at Mississippi State, 12:30 PM/9:30 AM, LFS/GP

Wyoming at Colorado State, 2:00 PM/11:00 AM, Mtn.

Toledo at Bowling Green, 2:30 PM/11:30 AM, ESPNU

 

SATURDAY

Maryland at N.C. State, Noon/9:00 AM, LFS/GP

#23 South Florida at Pittsburgh, Noon/9:00 AM, GP

Miami of Ohio at Ohio, 2:00 PM/11:00 AM, GP

Duke at North Carolina, 3:30/12:30 PM, ESPNU

Nevada at San Jose State, 4:00/1:00 PM, GP

UNLV at New Mexico, 5:30/2:30 PM, Mtn.

Florida Atlantic at FIU, 7:00/4:00 PM, GP

Cincinnati at Syracuse, 7:15/4:15 PM, ESPNU

 

All Other Div. I-A Games

 

SATURDAY

Tulane at East Carolina

Buffalo at Kent STate

SMU at Memphis

Wake Forest at Vanderbilt

UTEP at UCF

Temple at Western Michigan

Tulsa at Rice

Arkansas State at Southern Miss

Utah State at Idaho

Texas Southern at Houston

Western Kentucky at North Texas

Ball State at Northern Illinois

UAB at Marshall

Louisiana-Monroe at Louisiana-Lafayette

TCU at San Diego State

[iggymcfly 0]

Decided to wait for the new CFB thread to do the tier system this week as I was kinda busy on Sunday. Anyway, here are the chances that the remaining contenders have if they win the remainder of their games.

 

 

Tier I: The Frontrunners

These are the teams that just need to win the rest of their games to go to the championship. For the first time since the first week I did the system, we again have 3 teams that control their own destinies if they win out.

 

Kansas (11-0): With Oregon's loss, Kansas has gone from 99% to make the title game if they win out to 100%. All they have to worry about now is beating Missouri and either Oklahoma or Texas.

 

LSU (10-1): LSU's also just has to focus on their remaining games to make the championship. They should get by Arkansas without too much trouble, but Tennessee or Georgia (the latter with a pretty solid home advantage) could be trouble in the SEC Championship.

 

Missouri (10-1): Missouri took a huge leap this week, jumping two groups as the Oregon loss almost guarantees them a trip to New Orleans if they win out. West Virginia is slightly ahead of them at the moment in the BCS Standings, but that really doesn't mean much. They're almost dead even in the polls and WVU's whole edge comes from the computer rankings. However, WVU didn't even lead Mizzou in the computer rankings until last week when they got a boost from beating Cincy. With Missouri getting a much bigger computer boost if they beat Kansas and likely taking a lead in the polls as well, they're almost guaranteed to go to the championship if they win out. The only way West Virginia could pass them is if the Missouri/Kansas game is so ugly that Mizzou actually loses ground in the polls after beating the #2 team. It would have to be something along the lines of a 12-10 game with 13 turnovers.

 

 

Tier II: The Contenders

This is the group of teams (OK, only one team this week) that is still in the thick of the race. If they win out, they're favored to reach the title game.

 

West Virginia (9-1): Even though West Virginia can't beat out a 12-1 Missouri or LSU, they're still in a very good spot to reach the title game. If LSU has to face a red-hot Georgia team in Atlanta, they're not going to be much better than a coinflip to win and there's a great shot that Oklahoma or Missouri falls in the Big XII title game too. All things considered, West Virginia was probably the biggest beneficiary of the OU and UO losses last week.

 

 

Tier III: Still in the race

A teams that in this group will be less than 50/50 to make the championship if they win out, but will still have a pretty reasonable chance to qualify.

 

Arizona State (9-1): Could the Sun Devils pass West Virginia? Yes, but it won't be easy. They're currently 6th in the polls and would have to leap two teams to get there. In order to do that, they'll have to really get a "buzz" going in the national media and eking out a close win at home over USC won't cut it. I think the line is probably somewhere around 2 TDs in terms of how much they'd have to beat USC by to get past the Mountaineers. Obviously, UConn playing WVU close couldn't hurt their cause.

 

Ohio State (11-1): Ohio State's certainly not out of the race, but with no games left, they really can't pass anyone. If Arizona State beat USC and Arizona, they'll almost certainly pass the Buckeyes, so OSU needs 3 teams out of LSU, the KU/Mizz winner, WVU, and ASU to lose. That's not quite as hard it seems as all except West Virginia have tough games left, but the Buckeyes are still only about 10-15% to go to New Orleans.

 

 

Tier IV: The Longshots

These teams while still technically in the race are going to need every single break to go their way. There will have to be some crazy upsets for one of these teams to actually make it to New Orleans.

 

None: Ohio State's "leader in the clubhouse" status really hurts the 2-loss teams at this point as there's no reasonable justification to put such a team ahead of the Buckeyes. The only way such a team can get in is if LSU, Kansas, Missouri, West Virginia, and Arizona State all lose, and that's really difficult, especially with West Virginia passing their last real test against Cincinnati last week. Georgia has a very outside shot as do USC and Oklahoma, but none are really worth listing at this point as none are more than 1% even if they win out.

 

 

Eliminated last week

It's pretty much two strikes and you're out this season. The following teams eliminated themselves from the race last week.

 

Oklahoma (9-2) So just how hard would it be for Oklahoma? They'd need Tennessee to beat Kentucky on the road then beat LSU in the SEC Championship or else Georgia to lose to Georgia Tech before beating LSU. They'd need Arizona State to lose to USC or Arizona. They'd need West Virginia to lose to UConn or Pitt as a 2 TD favorite. And even then, it would be a close race between them, Kansas, and USC. For all intents and purposes, the Sooners are done.

 

Oregon (8-2): The Ducks are absolutely 100% done with the loss at Arizona. Even in an apocalyptic scenario where Tennessee and Texas win the SEC and Big XII, the voters would do everything in their power to keep a Dixon-less UO team out of the title game.

[Secret Agent 0]

Well for Oklahoma, at least there is still the Fiesta Bowl to shoot for. That's not too bad of a season. I wonder who they might have to face if they do in fact get there. Boise State again? Ugh.

[iggymcfly 0]

Nah, the Sugar Bowl has last pick this year so that's almost certainly where Boise State would go if they get an auto-bid. You're probably looking at a 2-loss Arizona State or Oregon in Tempe.

[nogoodnick 0]

Hmm. Oregon vs Oklahoma? At first glance that is a dream matchup for the Sooners. However Brady Leaf did come close to beating Oklahoma in the Holiday Bowl 2 years ago. He also threw a last minute interception in the red zone to seal the game. He isn't a great fit for the offense but he has thrown nearly 300 passes in his career for 1600 yards 9 td 9 ints and started a few games. So its not like he's some schmuck from the end of the bench. But he does have the footspeed of a cow.

[HarleyQuinn 0]

FBS? Pfft... The QBs are the ones to keep an eye on, especially draft eligibles such as Ricky Santos, Nick Hill, and Joe Flacco.

 

11/22 - Delaware State @ Delaware (1:30 PM ET)

Watch For: QB Vashon Winton (DELS), RB Omar Cuff (DEL), QB Joe Flacco (DEL)

11/24 - Fordham @ UMass (12 PM ET)

Watch For: RB Jonte Coven (FOR), WR Asa Lucas (FOR), RB Matt Lawrence (UM), QB Liam Coen (UM)

11/24 - Wofford @ Montana (2:05 PM ET)

Watch For: RB Kevious Johnson (WOF), RB Lex Hilliard (MON), QB Cole Bergquist (MON)

11/24 - Eastern Illinois @ Southern Illinois (2:30 PM ET)

Watch For: RB Ademola Adeniji (EI), QB Nick Hill (SI)

11/24 - Eastern Kentucky @ Richmond (5 PM ET)

Watch For: RB Bobby Washington (EK), QB Allan Holland (EK), RB Tim Hightower (RICH)

11/24 - New Hampshire @ Northern Iowa (7:35 PM ET)

Watch For: WR Michael Boyle (NH), QB Ricky Santos (NH), RB Corey Lewis (NI), QB Eric Sanders (NI)

11/24 - Eastern Washington @ McNeese State (8 PM ET)

Watch For: WR Aaron Boyce (EW), QB Matt Nichols (EW), WR Carlese Franklin (McN), QB Derrick Fourroux (McN)

11/24 - James Madison @ Appalachian State (TBD)

Watch For: QB Rodney Landers (JMU), RB Kevin Richardson (APP), QB Armanti Edwards or QB Trey Elder (APP)

[2GOLD 0]

 

I cannot tell you how pissed I am that Delaware and Delaware State get each other in the first round.

[MFer 0]

I actually played under the OC at Delaware St. a couple years ago when he was coaching D-2.

 

As far as the BCS goes, as long as Ohio St. doesn't weasel their way back into the title game, I'm good.

[SilverPhoenix 0]

Taking this from last week's thread.

 

Get this, there was some BCS expert guy on First Take this morning saying Arizona St. should pass WVU if they beat USC. I mean WTF? How is beating USC this year so much better of a win than WVU beating UConn the same week?

 

It's what you think it is, dude. It's our friends in the media who have taken the "anyone but West Virginia" in the title game stance. Arizona State and UConn will be some writers (and Kirk Herbstret) favorite teams this weekend to get rid of the Moutaineer problem. And if WVU beats UConn, watch Lee Corzo, or Herbstret pick Pitt to upset WVU in the backyard brawl.

[iggymcfly 0]

USC >>> UConn. The Sagarin predictor has USC 9 points better on a neutral field and that doesn't take into account how much healthier USC is than they were a few weeks ago. There's a reason that West Virginia's favored by 17 over UConn this week while ASU's a 3 point dog to USC. It should be a moot point by Thursday though as I really think the Trojans win this one.

[iggymcfly 0]

BTW, here's my Heisman Top Ten at the moment:

 

1. Tim Tebow

2. Pat White

3. Chris Long

4. Michael Crabtree

5. Kevin Smith

6. Chase Daniel

7. Dennis Dixon

8. Glenn Dorsey

9. Dan Connor

10. Darren McFadden

[cabbageboy 0]

Oh I didn't mean to infer that UConn is remotely better than USC. I think USC would beat them home, away, or neutral unless they had massive injuries. But however much of a fraud as I think UConn is they are still 9-2 this year, ranked in the top 25, and according to some actually better than USC (www.realtimerpi.com has UConn #20 and USC #22). My point is that it's not like WVU is going to squash Syracuse this weekend while ASU plays a real team....when two teams are both playing ranked foes how can the lower ranked team pass the other? I can see that with Missouri beating Kansas and passing WVU, but that is a matchup of top 5 teams.

 

Also, the Pac 10 may well be the worst major conference this year. USC is down, UCLA has been a flop, Cal has tanked after starting off hot, and Oregon now doesn't have Dixon for the rest of the season. Arizona St. is essentially the last man standing because they haven't screwed up. On that same realtime site the Pac 10 is listed as the #6 conference, weakest of the BCS leagues.

 

Oregon St. likely will end up the #4 team in the Pac 10 and that's a team I saw Cincinnati stomp 34-3.

[Edwin MacPhisto 0]

My point is that it's not like WVU is going to squash Syracuse this weekend while ASU plays a real team....when two teams are both playing ranked foes how can the lower ranked team pass the other?

Well, in an ideal world, voters wouldn't be creating their ballots chiefly based on "how can team X pass team Y." That's the same bullshit that keeps teams ranked low in the preseason polls (or not ranked at all) behind teams who may not have as strong a resume of performance. I see no reason to be uncomfortable with the idea that a pollster could watch ASU beat USC, watch WVU beat UConn, and say, "y'know, let me take a look at what Arizona State's actually done this year" and reasonably consider them to have a better rep than WVU to this point.

 

Also, Iggy, re: your Heisman post--good list of candidates. I really hope at least one defensive guy finishes in the top 5 this year, because there are quite a few worthy ones.

 

[nogoodnick 0]

In the defense of every Pac 10 team they have all been depleted by injuries. UCLA has a new random assclown playing every week at qb it seems. USC lost Booty for a while and half their O-line. Cal was without Longshore and Desean Jackson hasn't been healthy in weeks. For Oregon, Dennis Dixon was only the tip of the iceberg. Oregon State has played pretty much the whole season without Pre-season All American WR/PR Sammie Stroughter. There's a reason ASU is 1st in the conference and it's because they've been hit the least. Although they did lose 1000 yard rusher Ryan Torain. It also doesn't hurt to have a better coach than all of the above teams with the exception of probably USC.

[SilverPhoenix 0]

Let me just clarify one point.

 

If Missouri passes West Virginia and they're in the title game along with LSU, the right two teams would've gotten in all things considered. (And this is coming from one of the biggest BCS haters on this forum.) Should they both win out, Missouri has the better loss as Oklahoma looks better than South Florida at this juncture. (escpecially if they beat them in the Championship game) This isn't saying USF isn't a very good team (cause they are), Oklahoma just had a better season.

[Urban Warfare 0]

Here's hoping Tebow can ice the Heisman this weekend against FSU. FSU linebacker Geno Hayes said Tebow was "going down" so it should be a very interesting game.

[HarleyQuinn 0]

FCS putting an effort even on Thanksgiving!

 

The 84th Turkey Day Classic - Cramton Bowl is currently tied at 58-58 after 2 overtimes between Tuskegee and Alabama State.

 

Edit: Tuskegee just won 64-58 in the 3rd overtime!

[Edwin MacPhisto 0]

Well, Arizona State sure is getting their shit wrecked. I wonder how negatively this embarrassment is going to affect their chances of getting the BCS at-large bid.

[Smartly Pretty 0]

BTW, here's my Heisman Top Ten at the moment:

 

1. Tim Tebow

2. Pat White

3. Chris Long

4. Michael Crabtree

5. Kevin Smith

6. Chase Daniel

7. Dennis Dixon

8. Glenn Dorsey

9. Dan Connor

10. Darren McFadden

 

Explain to me why Ray Rice isn't even in the top 10. You're not the only one dismissing him, so there must be some reason that I'm missing.

[Bored 0]

Well, Arizona State sure is getting their shit wrecked. I wonder how negatively this embarrassment is going to affect their chances of getting the BCS at-large bid.

The Fiesta Bowl will still take them in a heartbeat if they are an option. They will need Oregon to lose though to have that chance as they wouldn't get picked over USC as an at large.

[Guest]

Great stuff.

[USC Wuz Robbed! 0]

Makes the Stanford loss all the more infuriating.

[cabbageboy 0]

Yeah without that bizarre Stanford loss USC would likely be right in the thick of the national title scene. All the talk about ASU passing WVU was made into a moot point tonight.

[iggymcfly 0]

BTW, here's my Heisman Top Ten at the moment:

 

1. Tim Tebow

2. Pat White

3. Chris Long

4. Michael Crabtree

5. Kevin Smith

6. Chase Daniel

7. Dennis Dixon

8. Glenn Dorsey

9. Dan Connor

10. Darren McFadden

 

Explain to me why Ray Rice isn't even in the top 10. You're not the only one dismissing him, so there must be some reason that I'm missing.

 

Yards per carry of some of the top backs:

Jamaal Charles: 6.4

Rashard Mendenhall: 6.2

Jonathan Stewart: 6.2

Matt Forte: 6.0

Kevin Smith: 5.9

Chris Wells: 5.8

Darren McFadden: 5.6

Mike Hart: 5.3

Ray Rice: 5.1

 

Add in that he's playing for a 7-4 team and that his only games over 150 yards were vs. Buffalo, Navy, Syracuse, South Florida, and Army and a better question becomes "why would anyone vote for him for the Heisman?"

[Edwin MacPhisto 0]

What the hell, CBS. You've got one game today and you couldn't even send your good HD cameras? Weak.

[Bored 0]

It's looking like Ole Miss is going to potentially end Mississippi State's season as they are up 14-0 in the 4th.

 

Edit: The Orgeron once again shows he's a complete idiot and goes for it on 4th down in their own territory. Bulldogs stop them and score a touchdown, 14-7 with 7:51 to go.

[Bored 0]

Bulldogs get a punt return for a touchdown with 2:38 to go to tie it up 14-14.

[HarleyQuinn 0]

Delaware is whipping Del State 37-0 in the 3rd quarter. RB Omar Cuff has surpassed 200 yards rushing as well.

[MFer 0]

Arkansas up 7-6 on LSU after McFadden ran it in out of that Wildcat (hog?) formation.

[Bored 0]

Mississippi State hits a 48 yard field goal with 12 seconds to go to take the lead, 17-14. What a comeback.