EVIL~! alkeiper

Top 10 maybe, but top three is pushing it.

I wouldn't quite classify it as a redneck state, although there are vast pockets of redneckity (or whatever you call it, just be thankful there is no Nascar track five miles from your home). NE PA around Scranton/Wilkes-Barre is predominantly Irish. Southeastern PA is mostly German ancestry, and my area is increasingly festered by New Yorkers.

The problem is that we simply cannot elect everyone to the Hall of Fame who had statistics (in this case, merely a win/loss record) as good as Don Drysdale. The problem is that when you start lowering your standard to the lesser players in the Hall, you have to elect a whole range of players at that level. Milt Pappas' Hall of Fame case rests on the fact that his win/loss record is almost exactly the same as Drysdale's. But he does not belong in the Hall of Fame. Let me point out a few of the differences that set apart Drysdale from Moyer. -Drysdale had big years, as opposed to more very good years. A team with a pitcher who has the big years is more likely to win pennants than a team with a pitcher who is very good for a long amount of time. -Drysdale's adjusted ERA is 14 percent better. -Drysdale won a Cy Young. -Drysdale went to wight All-Star games, compared to one for Moyer. -Drysdale led the league in strikeouts for three years. Moyer only led the league in win/loss percentage, one year. If Moyer is comparable to Drysdale, that is a point in his favor. It is not the end of the argument. If I want to argue Tim Raines for the Hall, I can't merely argue that he was better than Lou Brock. I need more. Second, Moyer is not truly similar to Drysdale, except that his win/loss record COULD match Drysdale's with a couple good seasons. It is hardly a convincing argument.

Good battle of young pitchers today, as Oliver Perez battles Roy Oswalt and the Houston Astros. Perez is having major control issues (16 BBs in 19 IP), and we'll see if he can get back on track. ESPN is carrying the New York/Atlanta matchup, Aaron Heilman versus Horacio Ramirez.

Is that referring to the players or the person writing the column? And here I thought Anglesault was bad...

Would it make your life easier if I argued for him or against him? I can do both.

A poster in the This Week In Baseball Thread.

Something new I'm going to try. A weekly wrap-up at the end of these threads. If the season ended today... Los Angeles Angels @ Chicago White Sox Minnesota Twins @ Baltimore Orioles NL Wild Card Winner @ Los Angeles Dodgers NL East Champion @ St. Louis Cardinals (There are complicated tiebreaker scenarios between the Braves, Marlins and Diamondbacks that I don't have the heart to get into.) AL MVP: Brian Roberts, Balt AL Cy Young: Rich Harden, Oak AL Rookie of the Year: Jeremy Reed, Sea AL Manager of the Year: Ozzie Guillen, CWS NL MVP: Derrek Lee, ChC NL Cy Young: Roger Clemens, Hou NL Rookie of the Year: Clint Barmes, Col NL Manager of the Year: Jim Tracy, LAD These will undoubtably look silly in a few weeks. And other moderators, I do not intend to close these threads.

Good pitchers' duel today. I am glad that two West Coast teams are featured. They are hard to catch on the east coast during the week.

Scutaro steals a base, and I'm surprised Morgan's head doesn't explode.

By request.... 1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in baseball? No. 2. Was he the best player on his team? No. Alex Rodriguez, Ken Griffey were better in the late '90s, and Ichiro was the star of the team afterwards. 3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position? No. 1999 was the only year Moyer finished near the top of the class among American League pitchers. Moyer was consistantly good, but not quite outstanding. 4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races? Moyer compiled a 3-1 win/loss record in four postseason starts. 5. Was he good enough that he could play regularly after passing his prime? Obviously. 6. Is he the very best baseball player in history who is not in the Hall of Fame? Not a chance. 7. Are most players who have comparable statistics in the Hall of Fame? No. None of Moyer's ten most comparable players are in the Hall, nor are any serious candidates. 8. Do the player's numbers meet Hall of Fame standards? No. Moyer scores just three on the Black Ink test, and 26.0 on the HOF Standards list. 9. Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics? None apparent. 10. Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame? Not while Blyleven is out. Otherwise, there are several other qualified candidates. 11. How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close? Moyer never received an MVP vote, and finished in the top ten of the Cy Young balloting four times. His highest Cy Young finish was fourth, in 2001. 12. How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the players who played in this many All-Star games go into the Hall of Fame? Moyer received election to just one All-Star game, in 2003. 13. If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant? Not likely. 14. What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way? None apparent. 15. Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider? And Beyond. Moyer won the Lou Gehrig and Roberto Clemente awards in 2003. Moyer is five wins shy at this point. It would likely take at least 225 wins to make Moyer anything resembling a Hall of Fame candidate. Right now, Moyer is clearly out. Still, he was a very good pitcher.

Yes. Go to My Controls, and click on 'email settings'. Look for a box that says to notify you by email of private messages, and unclick it.

The way Torii Hunter was playing, would you really want those games to be played. 7 runs scored, 1 home run, 4 RBIs, SIX stolen bases, and a .435 OBP make Hunter an easy pick for fantasy player of the week.

So instead of worrying about Hawkins, the Cubs feel safer giving the closer's role to a pitcher with a career 5.0 BB/9 rate. Wuertz would be a better choice, but Dusty would never trust a young player in a real life game. Will do. Keep an eye out later tonight.

The problem is that his peripherals did NOT improve. His strikeout rate was slightly lower in '04 than in '03. The only thing that made Pavano a better pitcher was the hit rate, which is prone to flucuation. I'm not saying Pavano is a bad pitcher. He's slightly above average. Which makes him worth less than $10 Million a year. Clement was a better signing because he was cheaper, and because his K rate bodes better for future success.

They seem high, but remember we are removing 100-200 outs for each pitcher because of the strikeouts. A strikeout is an automatic out, so pitchers like Randy Johnson have less of those to worry about than a Brad Radke. 58 walks in 96 IP. Plus like I said above, only 46 Ks means he gets to face that .259 failure rate a lot more often than your average pitcher.

Not knowing myself, I did a quick 'n' dirty study. Baseball Prospectus provides Batting Average for Balls in play, which removes strikeouts from the equation. I drew up a list of the top five leaders in K/9 and BB/9 for each league, from last season. The power pitchers did allow less hits from batted balls, just a .284 mark compared to the .294 mark for control pitchers. Looks significant, but that works out to just one hit in a hundred, or about nine or ten hits over the course of a full season. For control pitchers, this is more than offset by the lack of baserunners when the hitters do collect those hits. Some interesting stuff while looking over this. The MLB leader in K/9, closer Brad Lidge, allowed a .301 batting average from balls in play. Paul Abbott allowed just a .267 mark with the Phillies, and .259 with the Devil Rays.

In fairness, $8 Million looked like an obscene amount when they declined the option. No one knew the pitching market was going to explose the way it did. I do think the Yankees missed the boat by not signing Odalis Perez.

It has nothing to do with New York. Look at these two pitching lines.... 2003: 201 IP, 204 Hits, 19 HRs, 49 BBs, 133 Ks, 4.30 ERA 2004: 222 IP, 212 Hits, 16 HRs, 49 BBs, 139 Ks, 3.00 ERA The difference is almost entirely in hits allowed, which as we all know are prone to luck, and flucuate from year to year. So we have a guy who.... a. Pitched better than normal last year b. Moved from Dolphins Stadium to Yankee Stadium c. Moved from the National League to the American League d. Went from a very good defense to an abysmal defense B & C add 0.4 to his ERA right off the bat. The rest is icing on the cake. Like Jaret Wright, this was entirely to be expected. I don't agree, that hits are almost all prone to luck. Good pitchers know how to prevent hitters from getting alot of hits. It is a hard concept to swallow, I know. But essentially, a pitcher's matchup can end in four outcomes.... a. strikeout b. walk (or hit-by-pitch) c. home run d. other ball in play What happens when (D) is brought into the equation is roughly the result of luck. Good pitchers romove luck from the equation by collecting lots of strikeouts (A), and reducing the damage done by balls in play by limiting walks (B). Pitchers that do poorly in categories A, B and C are not good pitchers. There is no such thing as a pitcher that can prevent hits year after year without doing well in those three peripheral categories. Look at Damian Moss in 2002. 179 IP, 140 hits allowed, 3.42 ERA. So what the heck happened? His peripherals caught up with him. Let me modify the theory a little. Good pitchers allow less hits because their peripherals indicate their dominance. A pitcher who collects alot of strikeouts induce weak contact when the hitter DOES get ahold of the ball, leading to more out. I do not believe a pitcher can "pitch to contact," because if the pitcher is inducing contact, the batter knows where to hit the ball, and if he does he is going to be able to put it somewhere the pitcher does not want him to. Walks indicate control and a lack of collateral damage, and a home run rate accounts for guys who have otherwise good strikeout and walk totals, but are hittable (Bruce Chen, John Stephens, etc.). And if that does not convince you, note I said prone to luck, and not entirely due to luck. Look at Ichiro Suzuki. His batting averages have been .350, .321, .312, and .372. Ichiro is a consistantly good hitter, and his batting average has nearly a 25 point standard deviation from year to year. All batters and pitchers are prone to these ebbs and flows. That is why it is important to use career statistics to gauge players, and not trust the results of a single year. Even if Pavano did have the ability to prevent hits, he did not show it in 2003.

Why? Are they playing tonight?

It has nothing to do with New York. Look at these two pitching lines.... 2003: 201 IP, 204 Hits, 19 HRs, 49 BBs, 133 Ks, 4.30 ERA 2004: 222 IP, 212 Hits, 16 HRs, 49 BBs, 139 Ks, 3.00 ERA The difference is almost entirely in hits allowed, which as we all know are prone to luck, and flucuate from year to year. So we have a guy who.... a. Pitched better than normal last year b. Moved from Dolphins Stadium to Yankee Stadium c. Moved from the National League to the American League d. Went from a very good defense to an abysmal defense B & C add 0.4 to his ERA right off the bat. The rest is icing on the cake. Like Jaret Wright, this was entirely to be expected.

It wasn't just Mazzone. They fell into the same trap with Esteban Loaiza last year.

Fun with comparisons, Yankee style... Jon Lieber: 4-0. 2.73 ERA, 29.2 IP, 2 BB, 9 Ks Jaret Wright: 2-2, 9.15 ERA, 19.2 IP, 9 BB, 13 Ks Jeff Weaver: 2-1, 6.00 ERA, 24 IP, 3 BB, 10 Ks Yhancy Brazoban: 1-0, 3.68 ERA, 7.1 IP, 4 BB, 8 Ks, 4 saves Kevin Brown: 0-2, 8.25 ERA, 12 IP, 3 BB, 7 Ks Brad Halsey: 2-0, 2.74 ERA, 23 IP, 2 BB, 15 Ks Randy Johnson: 1-1, 5.13 ERA, 26.1 IP, 5 BBs, 27 Ks

If both the Sox and Yankees miss the division title, I'll go to church* again. *Church may include watching five minutes of the Hour of Power.

It's a skill you have to have to survive as a baseball fan, honestly.