Electoral Vote Predictor 2004.

[CBright7831 0]

 

Strong Kerry (196)

 

Weak Kerry (26)

 

Barely Kerry (63)

 

Exactly tied (11)

 

Barely Bush (38)

 

Weak Bush (79)

 

Strong Bush (125)

 

Electoral Vote Predictor 2004:

Kerry 285

Bush 242

*As of July 23, 2004

 

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

 

Again, I'll ask this question.

 

After looking at this map, do you all think Bush has a chance?

[Styles 0]

This couldn't have gone in EITHER of the other threads on this same topic? Sheesh...

 

Yes, I still think he has a chance. Pulling out Guliani for the VP would be smart to win New York, and most of the "barely Kerry" states could go to Bush easily. Hell, Maryland is traditionally Democrat but after electing our first Republican governor in over 40 years as a result of a weak Democrat on the ballot, I'm hoping we can pull it off again.

[Guest MikeSC]

Honestly, I think Kerry is in trouble. MI should be a lock for him --- it REALLY should be --- and it's absolutely not. Ditto MO. And I just see Kerry fading --- badly --- over the last few months of the campaign. Edwards gave him no discernible bounce and that should be rather disconcerting.

-=Mike

[Crimson G 0]

Washington state (where I live) is definitely not a 'weak' Kerry state. Last presidential election the vote was split 70-30 in favor of the democratic candidate, Al Gore. With things moving more and more towards the anyone but Bush ticket, Kerry could win in an even bigger landslide.

 

Of course, I doubt this would happen because Kerry will almost certainly lose this election. You can just feel it. Not even Democrats are big on this guy.

[Styles 0]

Honestly, I think Kerry is in trouble. MI should be a lock for him --- it REALLY should be --- and it's absolutely not. Ditto MO. And I just see Kerry fading --- badly --- over the last few months of the campaign. Edwards gave him no discernible bounce and that should be rather disconcerting.

-=Mike

It's a good point. There's still plenty of time left for the afterglow to fade and Kerry to fade under his own shortcomings and the Bush campaign going into overdrive.

 

Remember, when Howard Dean had a commanding double digit lead over all his challengers a couple months before the primaries? Yeah, me neither.

[Vern Gagne 0]

Some of the weak states for both are pretty solid leads. Kerry in New Mexico and Washington. Bush in South Carolina, and West Virginia. All have leads by more than 7 points.

[Vern Gagne 0]

Honestly, I think Kerry is in trouble. MI should be a lock for him --- it REALLY should be --- and it's absolutely not. Ditto MO. And I just see Kerry fading --- badly --- over the last few months of the campaign. Edwards gave him no discernible bounce and that should be rather disconcerting.

-=Mike

I really think Bush only know is starting to go full out on this campaign. He just sounds more confident, and assured of his platform than he had earlier this year.

[MarvinisaLunatic 0]

Arizona, Missouri, New Hampshire are leaning to Kerry, but Bush won those states in 2000.

 

Tennessee will probably be won by Bush.

 

Pretty good site for historical breakdowns of the EC vote..

[Guest CronoT]

South Carolina is a definite lock for Bush. Why? BJU. No, that's not a porno or something. South Carolina is home to Bob Jones University, or as I like to call it, the Southern Inquisition. BJU is so socially backwards, they only removed a rule against inter-racial dating and social couple interaction about 3-4 years ago.

[Guest MikeSC]

South Carolina is a definite lock for Bush. Why? BJU. No, that's not a porno or something. South Carolina is home to Bob Jones University, or as I like to call it, the Southern Inquisition. BJU is so socially backwards, they only removed a rule against inter-racial dating and social couple interaction about 3-4 years ago.

And, of course, ALL of SC is JUST like Bob Jones U.

 

That's some SOLID analysis you got going on there.

-=Mike

[Styles 0]

South Carolina is a definite lock for Bush. Why? BJU. No, that's not a porno or something. South Carolina is home to Bob Jones University, or as I like to call it, the Southern Inquisition. BJU is so socially backwards, they only removed a rule against inter-racial dating and social couple interaction about 3-4 years ago.

And, of course, ALL of SC is JUST like Bob Jones U.

 

That's some SOLID analysis you got going on there.

-=Mike

I think you misunderstood him, Mike. Not all South Carolinians are racists, just the ones that like Bush. Clearer now?

[Guest GreatOne]

Washington state (where I live) is definitely not a 'weak' Kerry state. Last presidential election the vote was split 70-30 in favor of the democratic candidate, Al Gore. With things moving more and more towards the anyone but Bush ticket, Kerry could win in an even bigger landslide.

 

Of course, I doubt this would happen because Kerry will almost certainly lose this election. You can just feel it. Not even Democrats are big on this guy.

I'll definitely be fixin that up here. My recently deceased grandmother--a former member of the Jane Jefferson club (I also met Tom Foley through her)--probably wasn't done any favors in her later years by some of the outright losers the party that flies a jackass kept trotting out.

[Jobber of the Week 0]

Yes, I still think he has a chance. Pulling out Guliani for the VP would be smart to win New York, and most of the "barely Kerry" states could go to Bush easily.

Why do people keep assuming Giulianni wants Bush? Rudy knows that all he has to do in 2008 is walk into the room and smile and the nomination will be a lock, and that people like me will vote for him. I know I can't be alone, and that there's other people out there dedicated to the defeat of GWB who'd vote Giulianni for Prez, screw VP, over just about anyone.

 

Hell, Maryland is traditionally Democrat but after electing our first Republican governor in over 40 years as a result of a weak Democrat on the ballot, I'm hoping we can pull it off again.

I'm still not sure why so many people are looking forward to a re-election. Who in the fuck prefers the Republicans being a big government spending party instead of a conservative watchdog party? For the love of basic GOP values, let's vote Gridlock in 2004.

[2GOLD 0]

For some of us in the middle, it's not that we don't want to vote for Bush but we aren't being given another option. And no, Kerry and Mr. Third Party are not options.

 

I know I might have voted for Kerry if he would take a stand on something and not bounce around like a super ball. And I don't believe in that "anything is better than Bush" motto since I'm not 100% sure Kerry really is any different than Bush.

 

Kerry seems like he could be a crippling blow to the party since he comes off more like Dukakis or however you spell that tank riding idiots name.

 

The confusion I have is, in that prediction who got the votes for Tenn?

[CBright7831 0]

For some of us in the middle, it's not that we don't want to vote for Bush but we aren't being given another option. And no, Kerry and Mr. Third Party are not options.

 

I know I might have voted for Kerry if he would take a stand on something and not bounce around like a super ball. And I don't believe in that "anything is better than Bush" motto since I'm not 100% sure Kerry really is any different than Bush.

 

Kerry seems like he could be a crippling blow to the party since he comes off more like Dukakis or however you spell that tank riding idiots name.

 

The confusion I have is, in that prediction who got the votes for Tenn?

It means current polls in TN show Bush and Kerry in a tie.

[CBright7831 0]

It has now been updated.

 

Ohio has changed.

 

 

Kerry 310

Bush 217

[Guest CronoT]

For some of us in the middle, it's not that we don't want to vote for Bush but we aren't being given another option. And no, Kerry and Mr. Third Party are not options.

 

I know I might have voted for Kerry if he would take a stand on something and not bounce around like a super ball. And I don't believe in that "anything is better than Bush" motto since I'm not 100% sure Kerry really is any different than Bush.

 

Kerry seems like he could be a crippling blow to the party since he comes off more like Dukakis or however you spell that tank riding idiots name.

 

The confusion I have is, in that prediction who got the votes for Tenn?

Pardon me, but WTF did Dukakis riding a tank have anything to do with anything?

 

Personally, I'm starting to think there should be a basic intelligence requirement to vote. Also, people who vote for or against someone for something as stupid as a haircut or plastic surgery or anything like that should be nuetered, to prevent their stupidity from spreading.

[Dangerous A 0]

The electoral vote indicator should be put away until after both Republican and Democrat National conventions. Both parties get a pretty good bounce in polls post national convention. This so called indicator would be best served to be pulled out sometime in mid-late September.

[Jobber of the Week 0]

It has now been updated.

 

Ohio has changed.

So has Nevada, which is interesting to me. I know there's a lot of Dems in Vegas and a lot of Republicans everywhere else, but they've also been fighting Bush all term over Yucca Mountain, and who REALLY wants to vote for the guy who wants to use you for a waste dump?

[JangoFett4Hire 0]

Can someone give examples of Kerry's flip flopping? It's a source of jokes and bashing, but I've yet to see a serious example of it, with the exception of Iraq, but he wasn't the only one who voted for war based on the flawed intelligence presented by the Bush administration.

[KingPK 0]

And according to this article, Bush has a slight lead over Kerry, which means take any of these "projections" with a molecule of salt.

 

Besides, remember what happened the LAST time the media tried to project something in a Presidential election?

[Guest tangerine]

Just a somewhat off topic but somewhat ON topic question

 

 

What state is the most crucial state? (obviously, California and NY are the big ones) but which state is "the" state to get?

 

Meaning, Like Florida of 2000, which state(s) will make or break the election?

[CBright7831 0]

Just a somewhat off topic but somewhat ON topic question

 

 

What state is the most crucial state? (obviously, California and NY are the big ones) but which state is "the" state to get?

 

Meaning, Like Florida of 2000, which state(s) will make or break the election?

Usually Florida, Ohio.

[Styles 0]

Just a somewhat off topic but somewhat ON topic question

 

 

What state is the most crucial state? (obviously, California and NY are the big ones) but which state is "the" state to get?

 

Meaning, Like Florida of 2000, which state(s) will make or break the election?

Florida again!

 

As for the flip flopping question, the GOP is happy to show you all the examples in this humorous internet cartoon... http://www.gop.com/kerryvskerry/

[Vyce 0]

This thread is proof of what I said in the other thread, the cynicalprofit poll - we really, REALLY need a "One and Only Election 2004" thread in which to put all of these little polls and minor shit like this, so we don't have a dozen little threads clogging the folder.

 

One of you mods - get to it. *snaps fingers*

[Jobber of the Week 0]

As for the flip flopping question, the GOP is happy to show you all the examples in this humorous internet cartoon... http://www.gop.com/kerryvskerry/

Appearantly a whole bunch of politicians flip-flopped for voting for the Patriot Act while we were still in our "OMG911SECURITYSECURITYSECURITY" Chicken Little groupthink mode.

[Vyce 0]

Hey! Check this out:

 

Bush leads Kerry in electoral votes.

 

What makes this any different than the post which started this thread?

 

Pretty much.....nothing.

 

The moral of the story - it's still way to early to start calling this shit, in any direction. It's all pointless pontificating.

[Guest Olympic Slam]

Just a somewhat off topic but somewhat ON topic question

 

 

What state is the most crucial state? (obviously, California and NY are the big ones) but which state is "the" state to get?

 

Meaning, Like Florida of 2000, which state(s) will make or break the election?

Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio seem to be the toss up states.

 

There's rumblings in the conservative circles (talk radio and sites like wnd.com and newsmax.com) that the core conservative base (guys like me) is indeed pissed at Bush and may very well either A) stay home on election day or B) vote for the libertarian or some other 3rd party guy. Bush's team seems to think that the Iraq war will be enough to keep the conervatives "happy."

 

I think Bush is in deep trouble as he has nothing to gain. In order for him to win, he has to hold onto every one of those little red states that put him into office last time. The fact is, he's more likely to lose those states to Kerry than he is to steal one of the medium sized blue states that went to Gore in 2000. Bush needs to realize that voter apathy in the conservative block is for real this time.

[KingPK 0]

Hey! Check this out:

 

Bush leads Kerry in electoral votes.

 

What makes this any different than the post which started this thread?

 

Pretty much.....nothing.

 

The moral of the story - it's still way to early to start calling this shit, in any direction. It's all pointless pontificating.

Look a few posts up. I already pointed that article out and the idiocy of projecting how the states will swing a good 4 months before the election (before the Conventions, even)

 

NO OaO ELECTION THREAD FOR YOU!!

[BX 0]

Just a somewhat off topic but somewhat ON topic question

 

 

What state is the most crucial state? (obviously, California and NY are the big ones) but which state is "the" state to get?

 

Meaning, Like Florida of 2000, which state(s) will make or break the election?

Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio seem to be the toss up states.

 

There's rumblings in the conservative circles (talk radio and sites like wnd.com and newsmax.com) that the core conservative base (guys like me) is indeed pissed at Bush and may very well either A) stay home on election day or B) vote for the libertarian or some other 3rd party guy. Bush's team seems to think that the Iraq war will be enough to keep the conervatives "happy."

 

I think Bush is in deep trouble as he has nothing to gain. In order for him to win, he has to hold onto every one of those little red states that put him into office last time. The fact is, he's more likely to lose those states to Kerry than he is to steal one of the medium sized blue states that went to Gore in 2000. Bush needs to realize that voter apathy in the conservative block is for real this time.

True, I've heard several conservative voters state they wouldn't vote for either candidate this year, and only a few of them were coming out of F 9/11. Voter apathy is a bitch.