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Oscar predictions

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Christian Bale will be robbed. No way he should not at least be nominated for The Machinist.

 

Don Cheadles for Best Actor is also a possibility.

 

I hope one of those two win it.

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there's a good chance 'before sunset' will sneak in a screenplay nod. it's gotten a surprising amount of end-of-the-year buzz.

 

this was a god damn great year for screenplays. if somebody put 'before sunset', 'sideways' and 'eternal sunshine of the spotless mind' in front of me and forced me to choose, i think my head would explode.

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i kinda doubt it will be. there's more than enough great stuff from the year to justifiably snub it.

 

even among those of us who loved it (myself included) at the time, 'fahrenheit' seems like this weird aberration now.

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I hope they at least throw something at Before Sunset, as that was probably my favourite movie of last year, though admittedly there's alot of stuff I haven't seen yet since it hasn't been released here (Million Dollar Baby, Sideways and so forth).

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I just hope F-9/11 isn't nominated for anything.

 

That would give Moore's ego a crushing blow.

Well you did guarantee both Passion and F9/11 getting Best Picture nods. :)

 

Bush winning the election basically killed any chance of the movie getting a nomination- plus, like Passion, the movie will probably divide a lot of Academy members. Since it ended up having 0 impact on the election- it won't be nominated.

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Guest Loss

Think a Tarantino movie will ever do well at the Oscars? First, Pulp Fiction was screwed over by Forrest Gump and now it looks like Kill Bill Vol. 2 will suffer the same fate.

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Tarantino's won an Oscar before- so I wouldn't say he was screwed over.

 

I could see Vol. 2 possibly getting nods for Best Actress (a weak field) and Supporting Actor but nothing more.

 

His WW2 epic The Inglorious Bastards sounds pretty sweet- but who knows when he's ever going to do it

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Don Cheadle deserves a nod

Paul Giamatti deserves a nod

Jamie Foxx deserves a nod

and Jim Carrey deserves a nod

 

Of the four deserving, Jim is left on the outside looking in once again. For Leonard, who gave a nice performance but it wasn't award worthy by miles. Johnny Depp was fantastic in "Finding Neverland", a movie I would have never saw had my gf not asked me to take her and damn I was surprised.

 

Speaking of which, what are the odds of Dustin Hoffman getting Supporting Actor nod for "Finding Neverland"? The man was great even though he had a small role. Him and Depp made that film.

 

I still say if the list isn't

Paul Giamatti

Don Cheadle

Johnny Depp

Jamie Foxx

Jim Carrey

 

For Best Actor then the Oscars completely have no clue what is going on. When you have a primarily comedy actor stretch himself that much and you tell him, "sorry, no Oscar nod for you", then you should no longer have the right to make nominations.

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Guest Askewniverse
Oscar likes big grand epics not small movies about a guy training a boxer.

What about Rocky? It won three Oscars (including Best Picture) and received nominations in several categories.

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Rocky's the exception I guess- Ebert has a new article up about how a lot of people are campaigning to make Million Dollar Baby the Best Picture and have it unseat Sideways as the frontrunner

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while we're bitching about things, i hate how the shows always choose the "big touchy-feely monologue" whenever the acting nominees' clips are shown, as if that's the hardest thing an actor could possibly do. i'm excited about cheadle, cause that means they can show the KICK ASS wordless scene when he's getting ready for his day and can't get his tie on right.

 

the vehemence with which ebert talks about 'million dollar baby' being the best movie of the year, and trying to convince everyone else of it is starting to piss me off. "critics, 'sideways' is no 'million dollar baby'." shut the fuck up. i can respect the fact that he thought 'baby' was better, but he's talking about it like it's this sore miscarriage of justice and 'sideways' is some vastly inferior movie, when it's clearly not.

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Guest The Iron Yuppie

For what it's worth, here are my nominations predictions. Some, though plausible, are likely wishful thinking (eg. Gondry for Best Director, The Motorcycle Diaries for Cinematography) however. If there is any justice, ESotSM will get a best picture nomination in place of Finding Neverland.......

 

Best Picture

The Aviator

Finding Neverland

Million Dollar Baby

Ray

Sideways

Alt: Hotel Rwanda

 

Best Director

Martin Scorsese, The Aviator

Michel Gondry, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby

Taylor Hackford, Ray

Alexander Payne, Sideways

Alt: Michael Mann, Collateral

 

Best Actor

Don Cheadle, Hotel Rwanda

Johnny Depp, Finding Neverland

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Aviator

Jamie Foxx, Ray

Paul Giamatti, Sideways

Alt: Javier Bardem, The Sea Inside

 

Best Actress

Annette Benning, Being Julia

Catalina Sandino Molina, Maria Full of Grace

Imelda Staunton, Vera Drake

Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby

Kate Winslet, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

Alt:Uma Thurman, Kill Bill Volume 2

 

Best Supporting Actor

Thomas Haden Church, Sideways

Jamie Foxx, Collateral

Morgan Freeman, Million Dollar Baby

Freddie Highmore, Finding Neverland

Clive Owen, Closer

Alt: Peter Sarsgaard, Kinsey

 

Best Supporting Actress

Cate Blanchett, The Aviator

Laura Linney, Kinsey

Virginia Madsen, Sideways

Sophie Okendeo, Hotel Rwanda

Natalie Portman, Closer

Alt: Kate Winslet, Finding Neverland

 

Best Original Screenplay

The Aviator

Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

Hotel Rwanda

The Incredibles

Kinsey

Alt: Ray

 

Best Adapted Screenplay

Before Sunset

Finding Neverland

Million Dollar Baby

The Motorcycle Diaries

Sideways

Alt: Closer

 

Best Animated Feature

The Incredibles

The Polar Express

Shrek 2

Alt: SpongeBob SquarePants Movie

 

Best Documentary

Born into Brothels

The Story of the Weeping Camel

Supersize me

Touching the Void

Tupac: Ressurection

Alt:Riding Giants

 

Best Foreign Language Film

Campfire (Israel)

The Chorus (France)

House of Flying Daggers (China)

The Sea Inside (Spain)

A Touch of Spice (Greece)

Alt: The Five Obstructions (Denmark)

 

Best Art Direction

The Aviator

Finding Neverland

Lemony Snicket

The Phantom of the Opera

The Terminal

Alt:The Incredibles

 

Best Cinematography

The Aviator

Collateral

The Motorcycle Diaries

Million Dollar Baby

Ray

Alt: The Passion of the Christ

 

Best Costume Design

The Aviator

Being Julia

Finding Neverland

The Phantom of the Opera

Ray

Alt: House of Flying Daggers

 

Best Film Editing

The Aviator

Collateral

Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

Million Dollar Baby

Sideways

Alt:Ray

 

Best Make Up

The Aviator

Hellboy

The Passion of the Christ

Alt: Lemony Snicket

 

Best Original Score

Finding Neverland

Harry Potter & The Prisoner of Azkaban

The Incredibles

Sideways

The Terminal

Alt: The Motorcycle Diaries

 

Best Original Song

“Accidently in Love”, Shrek 2

“Believe”, The Polar Express

“Learn to be Lonely”, The Phantom of the Opera

“Million Voices”, Hotel Rwanda

“Old Habits Die Hard”, Alfie

Alt: ”Lovers”, House of Flying Daggers

 

Best Sound

The Aviator

The Bourne Supremacy

Collateral

Ray

Spider Man 2

Alt: The Phantom of the Opera

 

Best Sound Editing

Collateral

The Incredibles

Spider Man 2

Alt: The Aviator

 

Best Visual Effects

The Aviator

Harry Potter & The Prisoner of Azkaban

Spider Man 2

Alt: The Day After Tomorrow

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I hope Morgan Freeman wins, has he ever won an award?...if anything I hope they at least go the route they did with Denzel Washington: "Here we shoulda gave you this award several movies ago so we'll go ahead and give it to you now for Training Day to make up for the other times."

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Guest The Iron Yuppie
I hope Morgan Freeman wins, has he ever won an award?...if anything I hope they at least go the route they did with Denzel Washington: "Here we shoulda gave you this award several movies ago so we'll go ahead and give it to you now for Training Day to make up for the other times."

Freeman has never won an Oscar. As Million Dollar Baby hasn't opened here yet, I can't really comment on whether he deserves to win. However, I hope that he does not win under a similar thought process to that which you just presented. Ie. Freeman winning as a make-up to being snubbed previously, or as recognition for career achievement. That kind of thing often just leads to people being robbed for award-worthy perfromances and winning for sub-par performances (and creates the need for future make-up awards).

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Well, I've thought about it and here are my final predictions.

In a good year I can get 75-80 percent.

 

Best Picture

The Aviator

Finding Neverland

Million Dollar Baby

Ray

Sideways

 

I'm petty sure about 4 of them, Ray is my fifth choice. I don't think any other movies have momentum.

 

Best Director

Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby

Marc Forster, Finding Neverland

Michel Gondry, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

Alexander Payne, Sideways

Martin Scorsese, The Aviator

 

One Best Picture Director always gets snubbed in favor of a wild card who directed a movie that they didn't want to nominate for Best Picture. I'm pretty sure Taylor Hackford is the guy that's gonna get snubbed. It's wishful thinking, but I'm giving the slot to Gondry.

 

Best Actor

Javier Bardeem, The Sea Inside

Johnny Depp, Finding Neverland

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Aviator

Jamie Foxx, Ray

Paul Giamatti, Sideways

 

Bardeem over Don Cheadle

 

Best Actress

Annette Bening, Being Julia

Catalina Sandino Moreno, Maria Full of Grace

Imelda Staunton, Vera Drake

Hillary Swank, Million Dollar Baby

Kate Winslet, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

 

Best Supporting Actor

David Caradine, Kill Bill: Vol. 2

Thomas Haden Church, Sideways

Jamie Foxx, Collateral

Morgan Freeman, Million Dollar Baby

Clive Owen, Closer

 

Best Supporting Actress

Cate Blanchett, The Avaiator

Laura Linney, Kinsey

Virgina Madsen, Sideways

Natalie Portman, Closer

Kate Winslett, Finding Neverland

 

Meryl Streep for Manchurian Canidate might replace one of them.

 

Best Original Screenplay

The Aviator

Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

Hotel Rwanda

Kinsey

Maria Full of Grace

 

Maria in the fifth slot, because I don't see them nominating Garden State or the Incredibles. That fifth slot may go to Ray.

 

Best Adapted Screenplay

Closer

Finding Neverland

Million Dollar Baby

The Motorcycle Diaries

Sideways

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didn't you say that once already on this same page? :P

 

man you must really hate that guy...i'm indifferent since I haven't seen any of his films nor do I care to...

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I think Aviator will beat it. Oscar likes big grand epics not small movies about a guy training a boxer.

 

Even though Million Dollar Baby>Aviator

You may be right. Regardless, I think the awards are going to be all over the map this year. Best picture will probably wind up with about 4 wins. No sweeps like in some past years.

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I hadn't seen this posted before. I read it the other day and figured I would throw it out for discussion

 

Chris Rock is so determined to see fellow comedian Jamie Foxx take an Oscar home at next month's ceremony, he has vowed to steal one for him if he doesn't win. While the Academy Award nominated have yet to be announced, Rock, who is hosting the ceremony, is confident Foxx will take the Best Actor trophy home - for his role in Ray Charles biopic Ray - and he's willing to take action to ensure it. Rock says, "I am rooting for Jamie, and if he doesn't win, I'm going to talk about it on the show. (If Foxx doesn't win) I'll take an Oscar from one of the sound or light people that win and give it to him. Jamie Foxx is not going to walk out of that place without an Oscar." Foxx is a favorite to scoop the prize, alongside Leonardo DiCaprio for his role in Howard Hughes biopic The Aviator - a movie which has failed to impress Rock. He adds, "It's a weird movie; it's well made, but a story about a rich guy who gets things done doesn't excite me. Oooh, he overcame obstacles, like how much money to spend. And he washed his hands a lot."

 

Credit: imdb.com Headlines section

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I'd like to see Eastwood take best director, but seeing Sideways win best picture would really be grand.

 

Foxx has best actor on lock. He really shouldn't be nominated for best supporting in Collateral, though. Sure, Cruise got top billing, but Foxx was the hero of the movie.

 

Hopefully Kaufman is nominated for and wins best screenplay.

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Wow, Chris Rock summed up my thoughts on The Aviator perfectly. That film is nice and all, but I saw nothing there that made me say "wow, this deserves an Oscar nomination for Leo."

 

And if Foxx loses, I hope Rock rips into the Academy on stage. Just shreds them. He knows he will never see a nomination so I hope he just pulls them apart.

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I wouldn't say Foxx STOLE the show in Collateral...that was the first time I actually enjoyed Cruise himself in one of his movies...

No, I meant "hero" as in "main character". Meaning he should be considered as 'actor' and not 'supporting actor'.

 

I agree that Cruise made the movie, though.

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