Campaign 2008

[snuffbox 0]

I wonder if Mike Badnarik will run again this year.

[cabbageboy 0]

Hillary's tankjob in the polls isn't really surprising. Let's face it, is there anyone out there who really ever wanted to vote for her? I liked Bill Clinton a lot when he was president, but that doesn't give her the right to simply show up and say "I'm here, now elect me dammit!" Hillary also sends out a bizarre vibe of "I want to be the first woman president and break the status quo" while also being a former First Lady and playing the "I have experience with the establishment" card. You can't have it both ways.

 

Bigolsmitty, of course the Republicans are going to take KY. That's hardly a big prediction considering Bush took this state 60-40 in 2004. It could even be worse if Obama gets the nomination, cause let's just say I don't see Obama exactly polling well in KY outside of maybe Louisville and Lexington. For obvious reasons.

 

That said, I doubt Obama is going to focus much on KY anyway. Where I think Obama is a dubious candidate is in the swing states (FL, OH, MO, AR, NV, etc.) where I worry that there will be a few too many redneck cretins who simply vote against him due to race. This is why it baffles me as to why Edwards is polling as low as he is. He's a bit bland to be sure, but he's not going to actively alienate voters and he is certainly the best Democrat in terms of getting southern votes. Hell if he just carried his home state of NC that would be better than what either Hillary or Obama would do.

 

I read some vague article saying that Hillary might just drop out of the race if she doesn't do any better in the next couple of primaries. I wonder if that does happen if quite a bit of her supporters would drift over to Edwards in a "We gotta stop Obama" type move.

[PUT THAT DICK IN MY MOUTH! 0]

Apparently Barack Obama's favorite TV show is The Wire. That pretty much proves that he's the best candidate.

Man, if he listens to the Wu-Tang Clan, you might have to join his campaign!

 

This isn't so much a "Hey, Barack Obama likes this 'urban' thing that I, an upper middle-class white college student, also like! Awesome" thing so much as a "Hey, Barack Obama likes this really smart TV show about the myraids way [sic] America has failed its underclass. That's pretty sweet" thing.

 

What I was getting is that I don't care about any candidate's entertainment preferences at all. Lots of idiots love The Wire too. Check out our TV folder for evidence. If his favorite show was The Office, I wouldn't say that he cares about the increasing plight of the middle class professional. You're assigning too much to an offhand remark.

 

I'm sorry. This folder brings out the worst in me.

 

To be honest, if Obama did come out and say he listens to the Wu-Tang Clan I probably would volunteer for his campaign almost immediately.

[Guest My Pal, the Tortoise]

it baffles me as to why Edwards is polling as low as he is.

Probably because people are either sick of him, or they can see right through his take-down-big-business-fight-fight-fight cheerleading and see that he won't really get anything done. Also, he got his ass waxed by Dick Cheney on national television.

[Atticus Chaos 0]

Hillary's tankjob in the polls isn't really surprising. Let's face it, is there anyone out there who really ever wanted to vote for her? I liked Bill Clinton a lot when he was president, but that doesn't give her the right to simply show up and say "I'm here, now elect me dammit!" Hillary also sends out a bizarre vibe of "I want to be the first woman president and break the status quo" while also being a former First Lady and playing the "I have experience with the establishment" card. You can't have it both ways.

 

Bigolsmitty, of course the Republicans are going to take KY. That's hardly a big prediction considering Bush took this state 60-40 in 2004. It could even be worse if Obama gets the nomination, cause let's just say I don't see Obama exactly polling well in KY outside of maybe Louisville and Lexington. For obvious reasons.

 

That said, I doubt Obama is going to focus much on KY anyway. Where I think Obama is a dubious candidate is in the swing states (FL, OH, MO, AR, NV, etc.) where I worry that there will be a few too many redneck cretins who simply vote against him due to race. This is why it baffles me as to why Edwards is polling as low as he is. He's a bit bland to be sure, but he's not going to actively alienate voters and he is certainly the best Democrat in terms of getting southern votes. Hell if he just carried his home state of NC that would be better than what either Hillary or Obama would do.

 

I read some vague article saying that Hillary might just drop out of the race if she doesn't do any better in the next couple of primaries. I wonder if that does happen if quite a bit of her supporters would drift over to Edwards in a "We gotta stop Obama" type move.

 

As far as the 'people won't vote for him because he's black' theory I think early on it was generally accepted that whoever wouldn't vote for him simply because he was black would likely not be voting democrat anyway. Not sure how true-or fair- that is, but I think that was what at a lot of people in his campaign thought.

[Big Ol' Smitty 0]

it baffles me as to why Edwards is polling as low as he is.

Probably because people are either sick of him, or they can see right through his take-down-big-business-fight-fight-fight cheerleading and see that he won't really get anything done. Also, he got his ass waxed by Dick Cheney on national television.

 

Um, Edwards probably polls better than any other candidate in the general election.

[Big Ol' Smitty 0]

I said it at the beginning of this thread and I'll say it again...if McCain is nominated, he wins.

[Atticus Chaos 0]

I said it at the beginning of this thread and I'll say it again...if McCain is nominated, he wins.

 

It depends. If he was up against Clinton (unlikely now) probably. Possibly Edwards. But Obama? Young, charismatic, new guy causing a stir and getting people excited about change vs. the not particuarly charismatic old fogey (71) who, for all his considerable skills, still represents the status quo . Obama reminds me of Tony Blair in 1997, young people are getting enthusiastic about him, and you can't counter that and get thier votes with someone like McCain. He's too old and he's been around too long.

 

[Guest My Pal, the Tortoise]

it baffles me as to why Edwards is polling as low as he is.

Probably because people are either sick of him, or they can see right through his take-down-big-business-fight-fight-fight cheerleading and see that he won't really get anything done. Also, he got his ass waxed by Dick Cheney on national television.

 

Um, Edwards probably polls better than any other candidate in the general election.

Better than Obama? How?

[Big Ol' Smitty 0]

it baffles me as to why Edwards is polling as low as he is.

Probably because people are either sick of him, or they can see right through his take-down-big-business-fight-fight-fight cheerleading and see that he won't really get anything done. Also, he got his ass waxed by Dick Cheney on national television.

 

Um, Edwards probably polls better than any other candidate in the general election.

Better than Obama? How?

 

In head to head polls against Republican candidates, Edwards outperforms Obama. Do I need to draw a picture?

[PUT THAT DICK IN MY MOUTH! 0]

I said it at the beginning of this thread and I'll say it again...if McCain is nominated, he wins.

 

It depends. If he was up against Clinton (unlikely now) probably. Possibly Edwards. But Obama? Young, charismatic, new guy causing a stir and getting people excited about change vs. the not particuarly charismatic old fogey (71) who, for all his considerable skills, still represents the status quo . Obama reminds me of Tony Blair in 1997, young people are getting enthusiastic about him, and you can't counter that and get thier votes with someone like McCain. He's too old and he's been around too long.

 

The national media is head-over-heels in love with John McCain (even moreso than with Obama) and if he were to get the nomination they would do everything in their power to see to it that he won. Tim Russert and Chris Matthews would turn into televangelists preaching the gospel of St. John of Arizona.

[Atticus Chaos 0]

As far as the press is concerned...Obama winning is simply a better story. McCain might have a lot of support, but, superficially at least, Obama is more appealling to a lot of people. I think McCain's age (I remember reading one in five of the electorate openly admit they wouldn't vote for someone that old) and general anti republican sentiment will work against him. No doubt he'll play the 'I fawt for ma country' card, and that might get him far compared to Barack, but he won't get the the youth vote like Obama will: he doesn't have the relatability factor or the special aura surrounding him that he does. If Obama turns into a phenomonen (although arguably he already has) you do not counter that with someone like McCain.

[Guest My Pal, the Tortoise]

The national media is head-over-heels in love with John McCain (even moreso than with Obama) and if he were to get the nomination they would do everything in their power to see to it that he won. Tim Russert and Chris Matthews would turn into televangelists preaching the gospel of St. John of Arizona.

psssssh. Weren't you watching MSNBC? Keith Olbermann declared it "a great day for America." Obama is the media's guy from here on out, and that's plain to see. McCain is yesterday's news, and he's already damaged his campaign several times by declaring himself a Baptist and stupid shit like that. They'll give him lip service about being a straight-talker (not really) and a maverick (no), sure, but Obama is a runaway train right now. If John McCain wins New Hampshire, will that be "a great day for America"? Fuck no.

[Big Ol' Smitty 0]

The national media is head-over-heels in love with John McCain (even moreso than with Obama) and if he were to get the nomination they would do everything in their power to see to it that he won. Tim Russert and Chris Matthews would turn into televangelists preaching the gospel of St. John of Arizona.

 

Yeah. I read the blogs. I feel they give me a much more balanced perspective than the corrupt Bu$hies in the MSM (mainstream media). I try to spend at least three hours every day reading my favorite blogs and posting comments on them. You know, just doing my part for the cause.

[Dobbs 3K 0]

McCain is too embedded with Bush at this point to win a general election. People don't want any more of the GWB regime.

[Atticus Chaos 0]

Don't get me wrong, I actually think McCain probably would make the better president out of everyone on the republican side, but I don't think he can win. And if he did get the nomination, he strikes me as too honourable to take part in or encourage the inevitable Obama smear campaign that the republicans will come out with to stop his momentum. I know how that might sound, but I have enough respect for him to think he wouldn't run that dirty a race.

[Big Ol' Smitty 0]

 

Polls

 

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. Dec. 18-19, 2007. N=900 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3. LV = likely voters

 

McCain 47

Clinton 42

 

McCain 44

Obama 40

 

Zogby Poll. Dec. 12-14, 2007. N=1,000 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.2.

 

McCain 49

Clinton 42

 

McCain 43

Obama 47

 

McCain 46

Edwards 42

 

CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll. Dec. 6-9, 2007. N=912 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.

 

McCain 50

Clinton 48

 

McCain 48

Obama 48

 

McCain 44

Edwards 52

[Nightwing 0]

McCain is too embedded with Bush at this point to win a general election. People don't want any more of the GWB regime.

 

On this point I have to disagree. He's always been on the outside of the Republican Party (Maybe not on his voting record, but internal politics of the party seem determined to marginalize him), and his incredible image job (People just like him, even a lot of Democrats I know who spit at Republicans) have really held fast despite 7 years of Bush. Yes, he does stand up for unpopular things, but that's part of his image: He stands up for what's right, not what's popular. Plus, he's been disagreeing with how the war itself has been run for quite a while, especially on things like torture. People are caught up in Obama now, but McCain's the closest thing in the election to a proven candidate. He's got the experience and (most importantly at the moment) the distance from the party establishment to really take flight in the General Election.

 

Edwards' success on the General Election side baffles me. I guess he's more charismatic than I thought. Perhaps it's just because I look at him like he's a Southern Geoffry Fieger...

 

And I do agree a little with Still Fly about Obama, but not Hillary. I don't think Hillary is going to come back: At this point, her whole campaign, which essentially crowned her the nominee long before the Primary Process, is falling apart because it overestimated her own appeal and the message is no longer just attacking GW, but actual change on both sides of the aisle.. I don't think she's ever had a real fight in her political career where she was doing the fighting and not for someone else, but I suppose that's what happens when you go to New York to get yourself elected.

 

Obama is probably much weaker than we think under the microscope, but he has time to shore up things. I'm not sure how he'll do against a strong Republican candidate like McCain, but right now he seems to be a lock for the nomination.

 

I also have to wonder how much missing out on Michigan is going to hurt the Democrats. Sure, it's a Democratic state normally, but John McCain is fairly popular here and he's easily the strongest opponent against the Dems. Without people like Edwards and Obama to draw people away from the Republican Primary (Which is an open one, by the way), you might see a larger McCain victory there than you would get normally.

[Nightwing 0]

Well, CNN has called New Hampshire for McCain, with only 12% of the precincts reporting. Meanwhile, Obama and Clinton are in a knife fight for the top spot, with Clinton holding a small lead.

 

The most amazing part of all this is the ridiculous turnout on the Democratic side. Obama and Clinton are in the 13-14,000 range, while McCain is only at 8,100. Man.

[DARRYLXWF 0]

As far as the press is concerned...Obama winning is simply a better story. McCain might have a lot of support, but, superficially at least, Obama is more appealling to a lot of people. I think McCain's age (I remember reading one in five of the electorate openly admit they wouldn't vote for someone that old) and general anti republican sentiment will work against him. No doubt he'll play the 'I fawt for ma country' card, and that might get him far compared to Barack, but he won't get the the youth vote like Obama will: he doesn't have the relatability factor or the special aura surrounding him that he does. If Obama turns into a phenomonen (although arguably he already has) you do not counter that with someone like McCain.

 

True enough, but you have to choose from the candidates you're given, and McCain is probably the best out of all the republican candidates. They'll probably play him as the old warrior, and he'll probably lose, but it'll be good for the republican party to have someone like McCain as their figurehead for the next year than anyone else.

[Dobbs 3K 0]

Come on New Hampshire, I don't want to see Hillary win in your state.

[megaadvice 0]

The comeback girl!! Hillary

[Guest My Pal, the Tortoise]

Well, CNN has called New Hampshire for McCain, with only 12% of the precincts reporting.

 

That's good reporting.

 

Man, look at the difference in the numbers. The Republicans are the National League of politics.

 

Sleepy Fred is in a distant sixth. That's the end of that.

 

Anderson Cooper on Giuliani: "he's fighting for third with Ron Paulll." fag

[Mike wanna be 0]

Fuck, I'm still registered Republican and it's too late to swap over. Now I have to research the entirety of the other party's candidates to be an informed voter.

 

Or I can ask TSM which Republican I should support if I want Obama to win.

[Guest My Pal, the Tortoise]

Don't. Just vote for Obama. Everybody's doin' it.

 

Old Mitt looks and sounds like a game show host right now, but not a cool one like Gene Rayburn, just kind of a guy.

 

Bill Clinton's thoughts on Ron Paul fans (these one's are conspiracy theories)

 

Again, these people are fucking insane.

Not representative of the entire group, but thanks for citing another fine article from MSNBC.

[RepoMan 0]

Besides criticizing torture, McCain is pretty much in support of the status quo in Iraq. That's going to really hurt him in a national election, esp if things start to turn for the worse. I still think his support for Bush's imigration bill will keep him from winning the GOP nomination.

[Guest My Pal, the Tortoise]

Barack bitches!

[MarvinisaLunatic 0]

I said it at the beginning of this thread and I'll say it again...if McCain is nominated, he wins.

R

Is he going to switch parties to the Democrats? I get the feeling that the "real" change that people want is just the Republicans out of control of the white house.

[bobobrazil1984 0]

The obama/hillary contest is ridiculously close, with each one having 10,000 more than the Republican winner. If she wins, mark my words, I'll bet the crying thing helped her standing with women. People sometimes forget, despite everything, the Clintons are pretty good at politics. I was even thinking to myself after Iowa "I cannot think of any way Hillary can humanize herself in 4 days", next thing you know she's on Drudge with tears in her eyes.

[Nightwing 0]

I said it at the beginning of this thread and I'll say it again...if McCain is nominated, he wins.

R

Is he going to switch parties to the Democrats? I get the feeling that the "real" change that people want is just the Republicans out of control of the white house.

 

*COUGHCOUGHLOOKATTHEPOLLSSMITTYALREADYPOSTEDCOUGH*