2006-07 MLB Offseason Thread

[Dobbs 3K 0]

Oh come on. Carlos Lee is a nice player, but he's not an elite slugger like everyone around town is building him up to be. If Ensberg isn't productive this year, the Astros are dead because a lineup with Berkman/Lee is not enough, particularly when you have Biggio, Ausmus, and Everett getting as many AB's as they do.

 

Carlos will be fine for the Astros this year...what I'd worry about is how he performs two or three years down the line.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Here's how I see the NL Central right now.

 

1. St. Louis

2. Milwaukee

3. Chicago

4. Houston

5. Cincinnati

6. Pittsburgh

 

If the Cardinals can shore up the back of their rotation, they should take the division.

[MarvinisaLunatic 0]

The Orioles are going to win 88 games and finish just outside the Wild Card by a couple games, but the first winning season in 10 years will be enough to celebrate and carry over to 2008.

[Failed Bridge 0]

via rotoworld;

 

Curt Schilling told WEEI on Thursday he plans to become a free agent following the season because the Red Sox are not willing to negotiate a contract extension with him now or during the season.

The Red Sox front office has hinted that they want to see how the 40-year-old pitches this year before committing more money to him and Schilling was reportedly told of their official stance Wednesday. There was speculation that he had been discussing a one-year extension worth $13 million. Like Schilling's retirement plans, this too could change.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Here's how I see the NL Central right now.

 

1. St. Louis

2. Milwaukee

3. Chicago

4. Houston

5. Cincinnati

6. Pittsburgh

 

If the Cardinals can shore up the back of their rotation, they should take the division.

 

Ditto to all of this.

 

The Orioles are going to win 88 games and finish just outside the Wild Card by a couple games, but the first winning season in 10 years will be enough to celebrate and carry over to 2008.

 

False. That team won't even sniff .500.

[vivalaultra 0]

So...everybody assumes that all the question marks surrounding every team in the NLC besides the Astros are going to be answered positively? I agree that if the Cardinals do something at the back of thier rotation (by back, I mean spots 2-5), and Jim Edmonds and Scott Rolen and Izzy are healthy all year and are productive all year, they've got a good shot to win the division, but I don't see all of that happening to be any more likely than the Astros shoring up their rotation and Ensberg and either Luke Scott/Jason Lane/Hidalgo having productive years. It's not like every player on every team in the Central besides the Astros is going to be a worldbeater and every player on the Astros is going to bomb horrifically. Fernando Nieve will win more games this season than either Kip Wells, Mark Mulder, Jason Marquis, or Mark Prior/Wade Miller. Believe that, yo.

 

I'm already getting grey hairs from having to defend my team...and the season don't start for another month and a half. I'm going into hibernation. Wake me on April 2. And there will be room on the bandwagon for everyone when the Astros lead the division by 10 games going into the ASB. And it's before noon in Houston, so that's not the alcohol talking.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

The only reason the Astros have been in the race recently is because they were getting 600+ innings out of Clemens, Oswalt and Pettitte. They have almost no offense. Carlos Lee is not a game changer. When factoring his defense in, he's like a 4-5 win player at best. I don't see how he changes the balance of power in the Central... he couldn't do it when he was with the Brewers. There are question marks surrounding the other teams as well, but none of them are banking their season on the backs of two players (Oswalt and Berkman). Maybe they end up with the division, but for that to happen they need to have all their pieces fall into place and the other 3 good teams all have to struggle. The chances of all that happening probably aren't good.

[vivalaultra 0]

I don't think Carlos Lee is as defensively challenged as some of you would suggest. And it's not just the wins that he's worth, it's the wins that all of the players batting around him who become instantly better by his presence in the lineup are worth. The Astros aren't banking their season the backs of Oswalt and Berkman. I'm pretty sure they know what they're going to get out of those two. If anything, they're banking their season on the backs of Ensberg, Burke, and some of the young pitchers who have potential (Brewer-like potential). Pettitte pitched 214 innings last season, 100 of which were good innings, the other 114 of which were innings of 5 ERA ball. I think Jennings can do better than that, and, if Clemens comes back (and I have reason to think that he will), everything's all good. If he doesn't, well, it's a dogfight with the Cardinals again. Call it wild-eyed optimism, but if the Astros finish lower than 2nd place, I'll be damn surprised.

 

In other news, so...did anybody read that interview with Jeter where he said that he 'supports' A-Rod? Let's talk about that instead of the Astros.

[CanadianChris 0]

In other news, so...did anybody read that interview with Jeter where he said that he 'supports' A-Rod? Let's talk about that instead of the Astros.

Please, let's not.

[The Man in Blak 0]

The optimism around the Cardinals is confusing. I know that they are the defending World Champions and everything, but they were lucky to finish above .500 last year and they've drastically downgraded their rotation going into this season.

 

Chris Carpenter is about as good an ace as you'll find and Anthony Reyes might have some flashes as a solid No. 2, but the rest of their staff is a complete question mark; you can't take for granted that Kip Wells is going to be Woody Williams part deux, you can't assume that Adam Wainwright will transform from a decent reliever into a decent starter, and you can't even pick the No. 5 starter out of a police lineup because there's no clue who will take the job. Just to put things into perspective, Braden Looper (0 career MLB starts in 9 years) is currently the front-runner for the fifth starter's role.

 

Even if you take for granted that Carpenter will turn in another Cy Young-caliber year, you still have a lot of uncertainty throughout a team that really wasn't that great last year until the playoffs. This is a rebuilding year for the Cards - if they finish over .500, I will be pleasantly surprised.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

On one hand the Cardinals only won 83 games last year, but they won over 100 the previous two years with almost exactly the same squad so maybe the record was an anomaly. They were plagued by injuries and they had a rough finish to the year. It can be argued that they were vastly better than an 83-win team, as evidenced by their World Series rings.

 

Secondly, the starting pitching has question marks going into the year, but do you remember last year's team? The starting pitching was horribe. I'd bet that Reyes and Wainwright end up far better than drek like Marquis, Ponson, Mulder and whoever else they ran out there when Carpenter wasn't pitching.

 

The fact is they've been the class of this division for several years, and nothing really happened in the offseason to suggest that they've been surpassed.

[HarleyQuinn 0]

I'm surprised at the lack of love for the Astros as well.

 

Carlos Lee put up 25 WS last year between Milwaukee and Texas (in-line with 2004 and 2005 with 24 each). In 695 PA, the guy managed 37 HR and had 58 BB vs. 65 K. To say he is not a game changer/world beater just because he played on Milwaukee and Texas is wrong.

 

Here's a comparison to other National League players last year...

- Aramis Ramirez: 23 WS (660 PA with 38 HR and 50 BB vs. 63 K)

- Jason Bay: 24 WS (689 PA with 35 HR and 102 BB vs. 156 K)

- Carlos Delgado: 24 WS (618 PA with 38 HR and 74 BB vs. 120 K)

- Ryan Zimmerman: 25 WS (682 PA with 20 HR and 61 BB vs. 120 K)

- Scott Rolen: 22 WS (594 PA with 22 HR and 56 BB vs. 69 K)

 

Lee will help the Astros offense immensely. Berkman, Ensberg, and Lee combine for 76WS (from last year) and if the rest of the offense can step it up some, their offense can still be dangerous. Burke should improve a little on his .276/.347/.418 line if he can walk more and Lane struggled at the plate however his BB rate improved. If he can get back to a .260-.275 BA, he'll be on a similar level to Chris Burke next season.

 

As for the starting pitching... Roy Oswalt is still a stud, period. Jason Jennings pitched really well last year and has been improving in FIP each season in a tough park in Colorado (5.13, 4.67, and 4.11). He should do well in Houston, although he may revert back to a 4.20-4.40 ERA if the defense doesn't do well. The same can be said for Woody Williams, who radically exceeded his FIP last year (4.81) however he can do well if he can get his K rate back up to 2004 levels. Wandy Rodriguez is not a good pitcher and ideally would be stuck in AAA or assigned to the #5 role (He's had a FIP of 5.12 and 4.78 the past 2 seasons). Doubtful but could make a Jason Jennings like jump in Year 3. The ideal pitcher for the #5 would be Brandon Backe although he's similar to Wandy Rodriguez.

 

Okay... the starting pitching will be really hit or miss after Oswalt and will largely be predicated on how well the defense does behind them. If Clemens comes back, that gives the Astros a strong #1-#5 and lets Wandy shuttle to the bullpen or get sent to AAA where he should be.

 

The Bullpen: This bullpen is really good and one of the better ones in baseball, let alone the National League. Dan Wheeler (3.21 FIP), Brad Lidge (3.60 FIP and should bounce back big time), and Trever Miller (3.56 FIP) are all extremely solid and Chad Qualls seems to consistently outdo his FIP a lot for whatever reason. Lidge, despite the off year, still racked up 104 K in 75 IP and if he can lower the HRs, should return to dominance.

 

Overall: I would not be sleeping on the Astros this season. Their only downfall is the rotation and even then, Jason Jennings and Woody Williams are decent if unspectacular #2/#3 guys who can easily get their own 12-16 W with that bullpen to help. The offense should be much improved with the addition of Lee and Burke/Lane having better seasons (If Lane repeats 2005, the Astros will have a great 2/3/4/5 heart of the order). The bullpen is stout and Lidge will return to form. He still only allowed 69 H in 75 IP so mainly, it seemed that he was just allowing more HR than in past seasons.

[vivalaultra 0]

You're my dawg, Harley Quinn! I like how everybody's predicting killer years for the Cards and the Cubs except the resident Cards fan (MiB) and the resident Cubs fan (Czech).

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

It wouldn't surprise me to see the Astros make a run. If all the pieces fall in the right places, they could win the Central. Quite a few teams could win the Central. My position is that if I'm laying odds, I'd take the Cardinals. The Cards have marginally improved their offense by adding Adam Kennedy. The pitching staff was so bad last year that it can't possibly get worse. I expect the Cards will make some move during Spring Training. Jon Lieber is probably available for a "B" reliever at this point.

[Styles 0]

The Orioles are going to win 88 games and finish just outside the Wild Card by a couple games, but the first winning season in 10 years will be enough to celebrate and carry over to 2008.

 

False. That team won't even sniff .500.

 

Agreed. I don't know about "won't sniff" but I think we end up where we have the last 9 seasons. 70-79 wins.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

You're my dawg, Harley Quinn! I like how everybody's predicting killer years for the Cards and the Cubs except the resident Cards fan (MiB) and the resident Cubs fan (Czech).

 

I'm not predicting killer years for the Cards or the Cubs and I'm not counting the Astros out. But if I'm making predictions, I don't just go with a gut feeling. I try to figure out what is likely to happen given the current rosters. To me, the Astros look like a fourth place team. It's nothing personal.

[vivalaultra 0]

You're my dawg, Harley Quinn! I like how everybody's predicting killer years for the Cards and the Cubs except the resident Cards fan (MiB) and the resident Cubs fan (Czech).

 

I'm not predicting killer years for the Cards of the Cubs and I'm not counting the Astros out. But if I'm making predictions, I don't just go with a gut feeling. I try to figure out what is likely to happen given the current rosters. To me, the Astros look like a fourth place team. It's nothing personal.

 

Well to me you look like a poopy-head! Nah, it's cool. Half the fun of baseball is arguing with knuckleheads. The other half is gambling. And the other half is the games themselves.

[Guest Queen Leelee]

vivalaultra, please share your opinion on the Cubs. And why the Astros will be the superior team in 2007.

[vivalaultra 0]

The Cubs are the Cubs and until they stop being the Cubs they won't win anything. You could spot them a 15-game lead at the ASB, and they'd end up in 4th place.

 

In all seriousness, I think they'll be improved with Soriano, but outside of he and A-Ram and dependent on how Derrek Lee regresses to the mean after a great 2005 and a lost 2006, I don't think their offense is anything to write home about. After Zambrano, their pitching is spectacularly average dependent on how Rich Hill does. I wouldn't be surprised to see Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis combine to give up more HRs than Soriano and A-Ram combine for. If Ryan Dempster closes like he closes last year, hopefully Lou has sense enough to give the ball to Howry or Wood, but can Kerry Wood stay healthy and away from jacuzzis? The other guys in the bullpen are solid to good, but I heard that Michael Wuertz might not make the team. I don't see them going from worst to first, but I could see them winning 80-85 games.

[Guest Oedipus Rex]

I'm concerned about this news that Ryan Dempster is "one of many players" who showed up to camp with a significant weight loss, the insinuation being that he and others were cycling off the roids. Now I never even thought of Ryan Dempster as a guy who needed to lose a lot of weight, but then again, he sits next to Scott Eyre. If that's true that Ryan Dempster's daily 9th inning walk-laden rollercoasters were the product of performance-enhancing drugs, then I don't want to see him clean.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

What the Cubs did is vastly improve their pitching depth. Last year they gave 57 starts to Sean Marshall, Carlos Marmol, Angel Guzman and Juan Mateo. All were 23/24, and none were ready. This year they added Ted Lilly, Jason Marquis and Wade Miller. Everyone takes cracks at Marquis, but if we're so quick to jump on a guy who played above his head, why don't we give the same credit to someone abnormally bad? Marquis has a 4.55 ERA in 910 career IP. I doubt he'll pitch as badly this year as he did last year. Their pitching will be much better. The question is if they can fix their impatient offense.

 

The big problem with the Astros is that they had five players in their lineup hitting less than .250. That's a simplistic way of looking at things, but it serves a purpose. The only impact hitters on the club are Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee. Other teams have the same, but their back end hitters are better. The Astros give up a lot of run scoring opportunities because Brad Ausmus and Adam Everett are just awful hitters. Craig Biggio had a .306 OBP. They've got two many bad hitters, so when Berkman and Lee do their hitting there are fewer runners on base. That'll hurt in the long run.

[sfaJack 0]

A fair assessment viva, but I have to ask you if you see much differnece between this paragraph:

 

In all seriousness, I think they'll be improved with Soriano, but outside of he and A-Ram and dependent on how Derrek Lee regresses to the mean after a great 2005 and a lost 2006, I don't think their offense is anything to write home about. After Zambrano, their pitching is spectacularly average dependent on how Rich Hill does. I wouldn't be surprised to see Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis combine to give up more HRs than Soriano and A-Ram combine for. If Ryan Dempster closes like he closed last year, hopefully Lou has sense enough to give the ball to Howry or Wood, but can Kerry Wood stay healthy and away from jacuzzis? The other guys in the bullpen are solid to good, but I heard that Michael Wuertz might not make the team. I don't see them going from worst to first, but I could see them winning 80-85 games.

and this one:

 

In all seriousness, I think they'll be improved with Carlos Lee, but outside of he and Berkman and dependent on how Ensberg regresses to the mean after a great 2005 and a lost 2006, I don't think their offense is anything to write home about. After Oswalt, their pitching is spectacularly average dependent on how Jason Jennings does. I wouldn't be surprised to see Woody Williams and Wandy Rodriguez combine to give up more HRs than Lee and Berkman combine for. If Brad Lidge closes like he closed last year, hopefully Gar has sense enough to give the ball to Wheeler. The other guys in the bullpen are solid to good, but I heard that Troy Patton probably won't make the team. I don't see them going to first, but I could see them winning 80-85 games.

The Cubs and Astros are closer to each other than you probably want to admit and I don't think either is a serious contender.

[vivalaultra 0]

Jason Marquis limited statline at Wrigley 'Stadium'-20 IP/25H/6BB/12K/6HR/5.40 ERA. Not exactly enough to base anything on, but still, not good. Not as bad as Jason Jennings' career line at MMP, but, as an Astros' fan, I willingly ignore that statistic.

 

As far as the five players in the Astros' lineup that hit below .250:

 

1. Morgan Ensberg .235-I'm inclined to think that this is an aberration, as it's .35 below Ensberg's career avg. of .270. The fact that he took 101 walks and hit 23 HRs shows that he still has a good eye, so I have confidence that he'll fall somewhere closer to his career average next season.

2. Craig Biggio .246-It's hard to think that Bidge will pick his average up dramatically next season, as he's declined in average significantly over the last few years, but, he's typically been a strong starter and will hopefully get his 3000 hit by late June/early July and take a back-up role to Mark Loretta, who, as everyone knows is a very good hitter.

3. Adam Everett .239-Yeah, that's about in line with his career average, but, he's a wizard with the glove. And if people like Ensberg were hitting like they should, nobody would care that Everett hit less than Carlos Lee's weight.

4. Brad Ausmus .230-He...handles the pitching staff pretty good. Supposedly, one of the offseason goals was to upgrade catcher, but, that didn't happen. Either way, this will be Ausmus' last season and from everything I hear, he'll be playing alot less.

5. Jason Lane .201-Couldn't hit his way out of a wet paper bag. I doubt he even makes the team.

 

In any regard, having Everett, Ausmus, and the pitcher at the bottom of the order ain't helping nobody. I was hoping that they would bat Everett 2nd and move Burke or Biggio down to the 7 spot, but that's not going to happen, and hitting Burke 2nd in front of Berkman will help both he and my fantasy team (sleeper, yo!).

 

Edit: re: sfajack-Pfft. Like I'm gonna let little things like inconsistancies and details get in the way of my vast homerism and fanboyitis!

[HarleyQuinn 0]

As far as the Cubs rotation...

 

Zambrano = Oswalt. Just a stud.

 

Wade Miller has struggled with injuries since 2004 and when he did pitch for the Cubs, he still had a 4.57 ERA and had 18 BB in 21.2 IP (with only 20 K). That can't be too promising as a #5.

 

Ted Lilly can be a solid #4 however he has struggled ERA wise for whatever reason the past few seasons. He gave up his fair share of HRs with 28 last year and walks a lot of batters (89 in 2004, 81 last year). He should see his strikeouts tick up to 175-180 though in the NL.

 

As for Marquis, his HRs allowed has climbed the past 3 seasons while his K rate has dropped rather dramatically, culminating in a very "off" season last year. I think he'll wind up back around 4.20-4.40 ERA however he consistently allows a lot of HRs and hits (likely bad defense although are the Cubs considered a great defensive club?)

 

Mark Prior has issues staying healthy but is an extremely good #2 when he does. Rich Hill put up a decent 4.17 ERA despite a 4.66 FIP (Marquis had a 4.78 last year) and it remains questionable whether he can handle the #5 role if he gets it.

 

Overall: I like the Cubs a bit more than the Astros overall and they seem to be more "grounded" in terms of expectations offensively and rotation wise. My question is whether their bullpen can hold up with Kerry Wood's transition and the health of a couple of their starters (as well as the decline? of Marquis in terms of K's and rise in HR's).

[vivalaultra 0]

Ya know, it's not fair that we keep talking about the Astros and the rest of the NL Central. They already get enough hype and media coverage as it is. To be fair, I think we should concentrate on some of the smaller-market teams. I'll get us started.

 

So, what does everybody think about Curt Schilling saying that he's going to be a FA in 2008? Seriously, can someone call Jimmy Carter and get him to mediate between A-Rod and Derek Jeter so the Yankees can get back to doing what they do best-narrowly missing out on winning the World Series despite having a payroll that could feed a small African country for the next two millenia?

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Ya know, it's not fair that we keep talking about the Astros and the rest of the NL Central. They already get enough hype and media coverage as it is. To be fair, I think we should concentrate on some of the smaller-market teams. I'll get us started.

 

So, what does everybody think about Curt Schilling saying that he's going to be a FA in 2008? Seriously, can someone call Jimmy Carter and get him to mediate between A-Rod and Derek Jeter so the Yankees can get back to doing what they do best-narrowly missing out on winning the World Series despite having a payroll that could feed a small African country for the next two millenia?

I honestly don't pay attention to any free agent declarations. If a guy's contract is up, he certainly can explore his options as we'd expect him to. I don't see how any of it is a big news story.

 

In good news, Denny Matthews of the Royals was announced as this year's Ford Frick award recipient (the broadcaster's wing of the Hall). He's a great announcer and this honor is well deserved.

[The Man in Blak 0]

On one hand the Cardinals only won 83 games last year, but they won over 100 the previous two years with almost exactly the same squad so maybe the record was an anomaly.

 

That's a bit of a misconception, really. Yeah, there's Pujols, Carpenter, Edmonds, and Rolen, but those 2004 and 2005 squads had Larry Walker, Reggie Sanders, two great years out of Tony Womack and Mark Grudzielanek, respectively, and a great deal more pitching depth as well. Given all of the injuries that they had, as well as the dropoff in talent, they were actually fortunate to finish above .500 and get to the playoffs at all. (BPro's third-order adjusted standings had them at ten games below .500, as the second best team in the division behind the Astros.)

 

Also, don't forget how weak the rest of their competition in the NL (the Central division especially) was last year. Those 83 wins aren't necessarily as valuable as they would seem, once you consider that the rest of the division ranged from barely mediocre to truly awful.

 

Secondly, the starting pitching has question marks going into the year, but do you remember last year's team? The starting pitching was horribe. I'd bet that Reyes and Wainwright end up far better than drek like Marquis, Ponson, Mulder and whoever else they ran out there when Carpenter wasn't pitching.

As bad as the Cardinals staff was at times throughout 2006, they weren't as bad as you'd initially think - their team ERA of 4.54 was actually in the middle of the NL pack (9th) and they actually yielded an above average amount of total runs per game (4.73).

 

The pitching staff was so bad last year that it can't possibly get worse. I expect the Cards will make some move during Spring Training. Jon Lieber is probably available for a "B" reliever at this point.

 

If the Cardinals can score another starter like Lieber, that will certainly go a long way towards helping out their chances. That being said, I sincerely doubt that they'll make a move this late in the offseason, especially since they really don't have a "B" reliever that they could afford to trade away.

 

I don't see them going from worst to first, but I could see them winning 80-85 games.

 

I'm actually a little more optimistic on the Cubs, if only because they decisively addressed their immediate weaknesses from last year.

 

A lot of folks around here slept on the New York Mets coming into 2006 as well, failing to take into consideration that they plugged both of their biggest holes with offseason acquisitions (Delgado, Wagner). The Cubs have fired Dusty Baker, replaced Juan Pierre with Alfonso Soriano, they've added on Cliff Floyd and Mark DeRosa for depth, they've got Ted Lilly to stabilize the rotation, and they'll have (in all likelihood) a full year of Derrek Lee and Rich Hill. All of those empty plate appearances that were given to Freddie Bynum or Angel Pagan will be eaten up by solid reserves like Murton, Theriot and/or DeRosa. In short, they've plugged a lot of holes...and I think they've got a chance to really surprise some folks, especially considering that the NL may stand to get even worse this season, as a whole.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

This has lead to some interesting discussion today. We should attack a different division each day with everyone chipping in with their perspectives on teams.

[vivalaultra 0]

This has lead to some interesting discussion today. We should attack a different division each day with everyone chipping in with their perspectives on teams.

 

Straight up. Let's do the NL Central tomorrow. I've got some interesting perspectives on the Astros.

[MarvinisaLunatic 0]

The Orioles are going to win 88 games and finish just outside the Wild Card by a couple games, but the first winning season in 10 years will be enough to celebrate and carry over to 2008.

 

False. That team won't even sniff .500.

 

Agreed. I don't know about "won't sniff" but I think we end up where we have the last 9 seasons. 70-79 wins.

 

We'll just see about that.