College Basketball 06/07

[iggymcfly 0]

Please tell me you seriously don't have UK still ranked after that shit today. Or IU. Or Zona.

 

Why do I have this feeling that some sick bastard on the committee will want to see U of L vs. Memphis in the 2nd round? The year before both teams were in C-USA was 1995, and they met in the tourney. This is the first post C-USA year that both teams will be in.

 

Why would it be a bad loss for UK to lose on the road to someone with the exact same record as them? I'd think that's pretty much expected. I dropped them a couple spots, but I don't see the need to move them out of the Top 25. Also, Kentucky has the #2 SOS in the country this year.

 

Indiana lost to Michigan State by 8 on the road after beating them by 22 at home. Michigan State has the same conference record as Indiana. Again, I'd think that's pretty standard.

 

As for Arizona, they have the #1 ranked schedule in the country. That should count for something. They were a 5.5 point favorite over Arizona State and won by 3. OMG, underperforming expectations by 2.5 points! I fail to see how this means they should drop below Butler who lost to Loyola-Chicago this week or Virginia Tech who's got more bad losses than any team in the Top 25.

 

Or perhaps you have some magic teams somewhere that I failed to rank that never play close road games against their rivals and never lose road games against Top 50 teams. By all means, point them out to me so that they can be included in my rankings.

[cabbageboy 0]

I can counter most of that with the following: UK sucks and should not be ranked. They have lost 4 STRAIGHT to friggin Vanderbilt. Did you not see that crap yesterday? That was one of the worst losses for UK in the past decade, I mean it was that bad.

 

IU? Struggling right now big time. Somewhat more excusable since the Big 10 is arduous on the road, but they can't beat Iowa or Michigan or anyone on the road really.

 

As far as teams that you left out of your top 25, um....U of L (now #16 in the AP, 19 in the coaches).

[iggymcfly 0]

As for U of L, (now #36 in the Sagarin ratings), they lost to that same Kentucky team that "just sucks and should not be ranked" by 12 points at home. They also lost to Arizona at home by 7 who you also couldn't understand how I had ranked. Those were the only two challenging games that Louisville had on their non-conference slate, but yet they still managed to pick up four non-conference losses by choking against UMass (again at home) and Dayton.

 

As such, their conference record isn't a magic bullet and doesn't automatically qualify them to get a good ranking or seed. The fact is that Louisville's picked up 8 losses on the year with a much, much less difficult overall schedule (#63) than Kentucky (#2) who also has eight losses. The only possible reason I can see to put Louisville ahead of Kentucky is the recency factor, but I think that's overblown and when a team plays well is as much the result of luck as anything.

 

Indiana's pretty similar to Louisville in that they have two bad losses (at Iowa and at Michigan) although their losses aren't quite as bad as Louisville's. Also, Indiana's outplayed Louisville against good competition as they are 5-7 vs. the Top 50 whereas Louisville's 2-6. Yes, Louisville had one really good win at Pittsburgh and they've played very well the last five games. Looking at their resume over the course of the entire season though, it's hard to put them as anything but a mid-level tournament team, along the lines of a Virginia or Stanford.

 

If the season ended today, I'd give Louisville a 7 seed, so they'd be somewhere in the 26-28 range and are indeed very close to being ranked, but I can't see putting them ahead of Kentucky, Indiana, or Arizona at this point.

[iggymcfly 0]

Just for the hell of it, I decided to fill out the rest of my bracket by assuming that the Top 25 represents the 1-6 seed lines and that Air Force is a 7. I put more effort into comparing individual profiles this time, especially as we got near the bubble. Here's what I came up with

 

Other 7 seeds: Oregon, Virginia, Louisville

8 seeds: Georgia Tech, Winthrop, Stanford, Tennessee

9 seeds: UNLV, Texas, BYU, Villanova

10 seeds: Marquette, Vanderbilt, Missouri State, Illinois

11 seeds: West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Clemson

12 seeds: Davidson, VCU, Florida State, Georgia

 

Last four out: Purdue, San Diego State, Alabama, Creighton

[CanadianChris 0]

I don't think there's any keeping Syracuse out now. Huge win over Georgetown tonight.

[Gert T 0]

I think Texas Tech is your only 11 seed that makes the tournament.

[Guest Queen Leelee]

WVU is probably in at the moment, also.

 

I don't get Iggy's love for Clemson. You can't go like 2-9 at the end of the year and hope to get in. I don't care who you're playing.

 

He also should include Old Dominion. There's no way you can leave them out with the streak they have going now, and the strong OOC they had with a win at GU. *waits for but, Clemson beat them post*

[Guest]

Clemson is not getting in. No way.

[cabbageboy 0]

Sure, U of L lost to UK at home by 12 (the Zona game was neutral at MSG though). But there are a few things to consider here. U of L was totally clueless early in the season. The whole Derrick Caracter thing was wrecking the team at that point and he was truly horrendous each time he stepped on the floor. I'm talking 3 fouls in 2 minutes. What Iggy fails to consider is that freshmen can get better with experience. Ellis Myles has come back to mentor Caracter and made an actual player out of him. Earl Clark has gotten much better, ditto Jerry Smith and Edgar Sosa. These guys were all basically hopeless at the start of the season. Early in the season Padgett, Jenkins, and Palacios all had some sort of injury as well, though Palacios is still hurt now with a bad back.

 

Personally, I can't defend the UMass and Dayton losses. Those games weren't a good idea with such a young team. Pitino should have scheduled a couple of in state easy wins (EKU, Morehead, whoever). There was no reward in playing those teams, since neither is particularly good, but yet are dangerous enough to actually win.

 

Oh, and U of L's SOS is 34 according to realtimerpi.com. At any rate I'm just hoping for roughly a 6 seed.

[iggymcfly 0]

Of all those freshmen that Louisville's playing, only one (Sosa) is actually starting. I'm not buying the "they're young" argument. The fact is that Louisville still only has two good wins all year. Facing South Florida, St. Johns, and UConn in the last five games is as much of a factor in Louisville's winning streak as any actual improvement. 2-6 vs. the Top 50 does not a Top 25 team make. I'm not saying Louisville's terrible and shouldn't be in the tournament or anything, I'm just saying they look like a 7 seed. With you saying you're "hoping" for a 6 seed, I don't really see what the conflict is. As for SOS, the RPI's very unreliable in that regard as they look at raw data instead of weighting the top side appropriately. (i.e. beating a 23-3 team and a 3-23 team is treated the same as beating two 13-13 teams.) For this reason, I use the Sagarin numbers on SOS.

 

If you want a team that's actually young and improving over the course of the year, look at Georgia Tech. Crittenton and Young are not only starting as freshmen, but they're the team's leading scorers as well. Also, Zach Peacock gets more minutes off the bench as a freshman than any of Louisville's frosh bench guys. Georgia Tech went 5-2 in the month of February with their only losses coming at Duke (#10 Sagarin) and at Maryland (#12 Sagarin) and picking up wins over Florida State, Maryland, and Clemson. They deserve to be in the NCAAs just as much as the Cardinals do, but for some reason, they're getting no credit at all. I did hear today that WarrenNolan.com has more credible projections than Lunardi though, and he has Georgia Tech at least getting an #11 seed.

 

As for Clemson, yes they're 2-9 over their last 11, but their losses aren't that bad. Here are their results since the streak started:

 

01/13 at #25 Maryland L 92-87

01/17 #4 UNC L 77-55

01/20 BC W 74-54

01/25 at #10 Duke L 68-66

01/28 Virginia L 64-63

02/03 at Ga Tech L 80-62

02/07 Florida St W 71-58

02/14 at W Forest L 67-65

02/18 Maryland L 82-66

02/22 #17 Duke L 71-66

02/24 at BC L 59-54

 

Everyone on that list is in the Top 50 except for Wake Forest. That's an incredibly tough stretch of schedule. Yeah, they dropped a couple home games they should have won (against UVA and Maryland), but it's not like they really played bad. They actually compare pretty favorably against a team like Syracuse who's only played 6 games all year as tough as 10 of the games in this 11 game stretch, and still has an overall record that's only one game better. Add in the wins over bubble teams ODU, App St., Georgia, Florida State, and Georgia Tech and I think they should still sneak into the field of 65. Also noted is that Clemson is ranked #29 by Sagarin and #25 by KenPom. The highest rated teams I left out of my bracket are Creighton (#37 Sagarin) and Xavier (#31 KenPom). Clemson would be the best team left out by either 8 or 6 ranks depending on which rankings you trust more.

 

Finally, Leena, not only did Clemson beat Old Dominion in their own gym but their SOS is also worlds better at #25 vs. #150. Georgia (the 14th toughest game on Clemson's schedule) would be the 5th toughest game on ODU's schedule. With Old Dominion only having two less losses than Clemson, I don't see how they could even be considered to take Clemson's spot in the NCAAs. FWIW, ODU is ranked #61 by Sagarin and #64 by KenPom.

[Guest Queen Leelee]

Games at the end of the season mean more. That's why.

 

It's not necessarily fair, but the goal is to get the best 34 at-large teams at the time into the tournament.

[iggymcfly 0]

I'm sure that if Clemson got to play their end-of-season games against the likes of Towson and William and Mary, they'd have no trouble winning them. Put Clemson against ODU on a neutral floor tomorrow, and I guarantee you that Clemson would be favored by at least 3 points. Remember, it wasn't even a month and a half ago that ODU lost to 7-22 James Madison, a loss that's only about 1000x worse than Clemson's worst loss (at Wake Forest).

[cabbageboy 0]

The fact is at the end of the day there is simply a limit on the amount of teams a conf. can get in the tourney. The committee won't admit that, but there just IS. If GT finishes under .500 in the ACC what incentive is there to put them in the tourney? Ditto Clemson. And FSU. These are all very average or mediocre teams. It also doesn't help that the ACC currently has two teams tied for 1st that nobody can possibly take seriously (Virginia and Virginia Tech). Mind you, one of those teams could get crazy hot in the ACC tourney and get back into the tourney picture, but if there's an ACC semis of UNC/Duke/Maryland/Virginia I fail to see any reason to put those under .500 teams in.

 

One thing that might help ODU and the Colonial is George Mason's run last year. Can't help but give the league goodwill when vying for at large bids.

[Edwin MacPhisto 0]

I'm not sure why you can't take Virginia and Virginia Tech seriously. I agreed it was presumptuous to label them as big-time players when both were sitting at 6-2 and a few weeks ago, but they've both held up very well throughout ACC play. Each team has crappy losses, but the vast majority of them are in the past (UVA's Puerto Rico disaster at Christmas, VT's questionable early-season out-of-conference drops). The only bad losses either team has recently are UVA losing at Miami and VT losing to NC State at home. Both teams have improved tremendously as the season has progressed, and both of them have shown the ability to win on the road and in streaks, which is exactly what you need to progress through the post-season. If we're going by your standard of players and squads improving throughout the year, then both these teams fit that profile very well. I'm not saying either are darkhorse title contenders, but I wouldn't be surprised to see one or both team ride their excellent guards to the Sweet 16.

 

I'm looking forward to the MVC tourney so I can actually see Southern Illinois play. I've missed most of my chances this year to see both them and Butler, who seem to be the big mid-major hustlers this season.

[cabbageboy 0]

Well, VT is a team I still view as an old Metro jobber. I just can't take them seriously. But if you want some valid reasons I consider the Hokies a joke, here ya go:

 

W. Michigan (#141) 71, VT 68

Geo. Washington (#91) 63, VT 62

Marshall (#180) 59, VT 58

NC State (#116) 70, VT 59

NC State 81, VT 56.

 

Virginia Tech is practically the living, breathing example of a 5 seed that would be ripe for that 12 seed to upset.

 

As far as UVA goes, I won't consider stuff like Purdue or Appalachian St. to be terrible losses, and the Stanford, UNC, and BC losses are quality losses. But losing to Utah (10-17, #139 RPI) by 24? What the hell? And losing to Miami with the ACC title at stake? I do take UVA a bit more seriously than VT though. UVA can be a decent ACC team, not usually good enough to win the conf., but solid. But VT? They sucked in the Metro. Sucked awful in the Big East. I just can't buy them as a legit team.

 

As far as SIU goes, don't get your hopes up for fast paced, exciting basketball there. Very solid midmajor program, but they struggle to score 60 points a night. If SIU can hold people under 60 in the tourney, they might go a decent distance. But truth be told, I'd love to be a 6 or 11 seed in their bracket if they are a 3.

[Gert T 0]

I'm sure that if Clemson got to play their end-of-season games against the likes of Towson and William and Mary, they'd have no trouble winning them. Put Clemson against ODU on a neutral floor tomorrow, and I guarantee you that Clemson would be favored by at least 3 points. Remember, it wasn't even a month and a half ago that ODU lost to 7-22 James Madison, a loss that's only about 1000x worse than Clemson's worst loss (at Wake Forest).

 

 

Clemson played that schedule earlier in the year.

 

Some of the losses weren't bad, but you can't lose 9 of the 11 games and praise most of them as good losses. While the committee says they go for 34 best at-large teams, and it may be questionable if they do, why reward a team that goes 6-10 or 7-9, even in a major conference? Clemson's "good" wins are only against bubble teams anyway.

 

West Virginia gets beat down by Pitt tonight and I think they are in real trouble if Villanova wins at Syracuse on Saturday (presuming they beat UConn tonight).

[Guest Queen Leelee]

Virginia Tech is practically the living, breathing example of a 5 seed that would be ripe for that 12 seed to upset.

Indeed. And VT is probably at worst a 4 seed at the moment. I keep thinking this every time I see them ranked. I know they're had some great wins, but...

 

I think we're going to see a lot of upsets this year. So many top ranked teams have weaknesses this year.

[Open the Muggy Gate 0]

Now I'm a Tennessee fan and all and I'm loving this... but what the hell happened to Florida?

[CanadianChris 0]

Now I'm a Tennessee fan and all and I'm loving this... but what the hell happened to Florida?

They won the top seed in the SEC and let down a bit. It might hurt their seeding (although I doubt it, especially if they win the SEC tournament), but I can understand how it might happen. I have no doubt they'll gear back up for the Dance.

[cabbageboy 0]

I don't see VA Tech as a 4 seed....only 19 in the RPI and 21 in the AP poll. That roughly would translate to a 5 seed and an obvious upset at the hands of a 12 seed like Texas Tech or Syracuse.

 

I know Florida likely doesn't give a shit right now, but what great team simply stops caring until the tourney? This isn't the NBA. At least the Gators now have UK to get well on at home before the SEC tourney, haha.

[ANKLELOCK 0]

Ugh. The Bruce Pearl thing was kinda funny, the Pat Summitt thing was a little more embarassing, especially being a Vol fan. Manning's face was as red as a cherry during the thing with Brandon Stokley and Jeff Saturday sitting right by him with the "you went here?" look on their face.

[cabbageboy 0]

My favorite part of that game last night was when Manning was on camera and Nessler said something on commentary to the effect of "Peyton's probably thinking 'You go guys, that's how we used to do it'" Cause Manning used to kick Florida's ass so often at Tennessee!

 

I know people think this Pearl/Summitt stuff is bizarre and even embarrassing, but I think it's brilliant. The fans are having a blast in Knoxville. The players are likely having a blast. The Vols seem to be having more fun than any other program right now.

[MarvinisaLunatic 0]

cannot wait for Maryland/Duke...

[MarvinisaLunatic 0]

this UConn/Nova game is pissing me off royally.

[Art Sandusky 0]

I know people think this Pearl/Summitt stuff is bizarre and even embarrassing, but I think it's brilliant. The fans are having a blast in Knoxville. The players are likely having a blast. The Vols seem to be having more fun than any other program right now.

And it's gotten me into following Tennessee basketball instead of being unable to even guess at their record at any point as recently as two years ago. Seeing such pep and interest in the men's basketball program as well is great.

[cabbageboy 0]

Man, that Texas vs. A & M game was just awesome tonight. Fuck Maryland and Duke, that game was where it was at. Texas finally won one of these amazing OT games they've played this year (coincidentally the only one of those at home). The Big 12 has produced the best games I've seen all year. Not a great league top to bottom but the high level teams are excellent, can all shoot with skill, can defend, etc. Yeah, Kansas will win the Big 12 regular season, but I think both of these teams are going to make more noise in March.

[NoCalMike 0]

Lets go Maryland!! Woot Woot!!

[EricMM 0]

Duke is just sorry this year, what can ya say?

 

Still...

 

Hey! You suck!

[cabbageboy 0]

Well, well. Georgia Tech may well have played their way back onto the bubble with that win over UNC tonight. Now just go ahead and beat BC this weekend and go 8-8 in the ACC and then punch that ticket to the tourney.

 

Incidentally what is going on with UNC anyway? They aren't exactly playing stellar right now, similar to Florida although not as bad I don't guess.

[Mik 0]

I've been watching the games. Heels look terrible. Bad shot selection, lack of motivation, poor decisions... you name it.

 

I'm dying to know why Ty Lawson was benched for the first 10 minutes of the first half. Hopefully it will come out tomorrow.