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Guest Tzar Lysergic

NFL WEEK ONE

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I like them (I'm a huge Marion the Barbarian fan), but until they make a bigger splash in the post season I'm not buying it. They've had a lot of hype and pretty good regular seasons the past couple years, but keep messing it up in the post season.

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Here's a quick discussion question...

 

Based off last season, will we see more of a passing extreme?

 

Tom Brady in his 1st 8 games as we all know was insane (30 TD vs. 2 INT... are you kidding me?). What I personally didn't realize was how successful other quarterbacks were in stretches too and not only that but their teams as a result. I'm curious if seeing the numbers/success will mean that more teams will be throwing it 35+ times a game knowing that their QBs can rip apart a secondary.

 

Drew Brees (Week 12-17): 160/235 (68.1%) for 1691 yards and 13 TD vs. 4 INT. Saints went 3-3 during that stretch. Averaged 39 PA.

- Lowest rating was 75.1 and had a QB Rating over 103.9 from Week 12 - 15.

Brett Favre (Week 8-12): 131/178 (73.6%) for 1641 yards and 13 TD vs. 2 INT. Packers went 5-0 during that stretch. Averaged 36 PA.

- Lowest rating was 100.1 in Week 9.

Kurt Warner (Week 12-17): 158/246 (64.2%) for 1884 yards and 16 TD vs. 11 INT. Cardinals went 3-3 during that stretch. Averaged 41 PA.

- 5 games over 83.9 QB Rating with back to back games of 106.7 and 105.9.

Tony Romo (Week 9-14): 137/187 (73.3%) for 1670 yards and 19 TD vs. 5 INT. Cowboys went 6-0 during that stretch. Averaged 31 PA.

- His lowest rating was 102.5 in Week 12 during that stretch.

Ben Roethlisberger (Week 13-16): 72/117 (61.5%) for 778 yards and 9 TD vs. 2 INT. Steelers went 2-2 during that stretch. Averaged 29 PA.

- 3 games over 86 QB Rating and a 158.3 in Week 17.

Eli Manning (Week 10-15): 123/232 (53.0%) for 1390 yards and 6 TD vs. 8 INT. Giants went 3-3 during that stretch. Averaged 39 PA.

- 3 games over 72 QB Rating including a 3rd season high of 100.7.

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So, new NFL convert here. After years of intermitently watching NFL games and trying and failing to get into it, watching the Superbowl finally won me over this year.

 

Since I've got no connections to any US city or state I figured I'd stick the names of all the teams in a hat and just pick one, so I've at least got someone to follow. And I ended up with the Cleveland Browns. Which works out pretty well for straight off since we get the Dallas game live this weekend. Anyway, point is I'm still new to... well, virtually everything. So anyone care to give me a nice, dumbed down rundown of what to expect?

 

You'll be part of one of the hotter "rivalries" in the NFL with the Browns/Steelers which always makes for a great game atmosphere regardless of how well the Brownies do. You're also part of a fun division that features smash mouth defense from Baltimore and an exciting offense similar to Cleveland from Cincinnati. Cleveland fans still hate Baltimore since that's where the original team moved to so you have that bitter feud too.

With all due respect, the guy is a quarter-day away from NE Ohio/SW Penn, following a sport that hardly exists in his native country, latching on a team that has sucked or not existed for years, with some of the most loyal and hardest-suffering fans in American sports. He's not part of anything.

 

That's fair. Although I'm pretty good at hating people on principal. Especially if it's to fit in with popular opinion.

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I'm not ready to say that the Vikings will win the division but I definitely think that Packer fans shouldn't get too comfortable. I think Jackson has a chance to be pretty good and that would make a huge difference in Minnesota. Green Bay will have around 10-11 wins and Minnesota will finish one or two games behind them.

 

On another NFC note, I don't know why everyone's sleeping on Seattle (no pun intended). Morris was pretty good last year and adding Jones, Duckett, and the rookie Forsett will make the run game way better than it was the last 2 years. Hasslebeck's got a back issue but it sounds like he'll be fine. I think they have enough WR depth to hold down the fort until their main guys get healthy. They also have a ton of talent on defense (Kerney, Tatupu, Peterson, Hill, Trufant) with good depth.

 

I think people are sleeping on Seattle partly because their division isn't that good and the fact that they probably won't do much in the playoffs anyway.

 

Maurice Morris (in games that he had 10+ carries) went 113 carries for 462 yards (4.09) but he only had one game with more than 20 carries (28-87 against SF...). I'm not sold that he can be a feature RB and he has two backups in Jones and Duckett making the team essentially a RBBC. Duckett should be a good goal line back but he's been an enigma given the size (3.1 YPC in 2005 after a 4.9 in 2004). Julius Jones is essentially another Maurice Morris but not nearly as impressive. He's the very definition of a backup RB who should be good but like Duckett, has been enigmatic throughout his career.

 

Matt Hasselbeck, as you mentioned, has back issues but he's probably the most underrated QB in the NFL.

 

They don't have much depth at WR. Bobby Engram and Deion Branch are both injured and they lost Ben Obomanu to IR. Now they're stuck with Nate Burleson and three young players in Courtney Taylor, Logan Payne, and Jordan Kent. Burleson's a good #2 WR but it remains to be seen if he can handle the #1 role and it remains to be seen if the young guys can step it up and make plays until Engram/Branch get healthy.

 

They're limited at TE (John Carlson, Will Heller, and Jeb Putzier) which is usually a strong feature of their team. Carlson is an adequate receiver & blocker but Putzier can't block and Heller's been a back up.

 

As for their defense, it is solid for the NFC but it's not nearly as good as most teams. They had 8 games where they allowed 20+ points and seem to be up and down like a yo yo during the season. They allow 21 points one week, 3 the next, and 21 again after that. They also lost to "easy" wins in Arizona (23-20), Carolina (13-10), and Atlanta (44-41 in W17 with nothing to play for) last year and it remains to be seen if they can win the games that they should win while doing well against the top tier teams.

 

Outside of 2005's 13-3 record, they've never been "dominant" W/L wise and are the equivalent of the New York Giants. Good team that with the right amount of luck, can surprise and fight for a SB but won't consistently be in the NFC Title picture year in and year out.

Even if it's a RBBC situation, that's a lot better than what "Soft Shaun" Alexander was giving them. The Seahwaks have won at least one playoff game the last 3 seasons (including an NFC title in 2005) plus it would be very tough to beat them at Seattle if they can get home-field advantage.

 

As for Dallas, I'm thinking that this is finally the year that they get over the hump (especially with the nature of the NFC where it seems to be a different team every year), but I can't be too sure based on them blowing it the last couple seasons.

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I still think Seattle is overrated to that extent in part because they seem to play "down" to their opponents' level, especially on the road. Until they can overcome this, I'm gonna ignore them in terms of any NFC Title game appearance let alone SB appearance.

 

What's most striking is that they are just horrible on the road and if they keep finishing with records at 9-7 and 10-6, they're gonna keep getting road games and bouncing out of the playoffs. They've finished at 9-7 or 10-6 in each of the last 5 seasons, except 2005.

 

2007: They lost 4 games on the road. They won 2 of their road games by 5 points or less.

2006: They lost 4 games on the road. They won 3 of their road games by 3 points or less.

2005: They lost 3 games on the road. They won 3 of their road games by 6 points or less. No surprise that they lost the Super Bowl on the road at a neutral site (Shoddy refs or not).

2004: They lost 4 games on the road. They won 2 of their road games by 4 points or less.

 

For 2008, you can almost guarantee that they'll lose 3-4 road games and maybe 2 home games. That immediately leads to a high end 11-5 record or 10-6 record.

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nothing better to do in this hotel room:

 

Washington over NY Giants. I see an offensive flurry on both sides but Washington's young defense pulls off one more stop than the Gmen.

 

Cincinnati over Baltimore. I think the world of Joe Flacco but there is no way in hell the Ravens pull this one off.

 

Seattle over Buffalo. This one I think can go either way but I have more faith in the Seattle O-line than I do the Buffalo O-line.

 

NY Jets over Miami- Week one loss for the rebuilding but much improved Dolphins. They will be legit in about 6 weeks though. Still neither one of these teams is playoff caliber. Favre or not. Hell even Alan Faneca can't save this team. Sorry Jets fans.

 

Philadelphia over ST Louis. Ladies and Gentlemen lets welcome back Donovan McNabb to the NFL. This season is for Andy Reid's job. Like the Dolphins, Saint Louis still has a few weeks before they gel into cohesiveness. 4-4 in the first half the season would be great for them.

 

Detroit over Atlanta if only because Matt Ryan isn't ready yet. Oh and that whole I question their running game. And Detroit has Barry Sanders part II at Tailback. Just watch. Smith is going to be a beast.

 

Pittsburgh over Houston. Pittsburgh is my AFC team so this is slightly a biased pick. But even with the loss of Faneca the line still will produce major room for Parker and Mendanhall. Lets also not for get Pittsburgh has a stacked defense that doesn't get the credit it deserves. Houston has some major weapons though.

 

New Orleans over Tampa Bay. Total homer pick. Period. Realistically though I expect the Saints to be tired with all the Gustav traveling and such. Still I don't feel as though Tampa Bay has done much in the off season to improve themselves. Yes they've made acquisitions but I don't feel its put them in a better place.

 

New England over Kansas City. Because Tom F. Brady is playing, that is why.

 

Jacksonville over Tennessee. This one comes down to a field goal. Look for both teams to grind it out though. This one could easily hit around 400 yards rushing between the 2 teams. Should be the quickest game of the week as a result.

 

Dallas over Cleveland in a shoot out. This game will be the passing equivalent to the Jax/Tenn game except I expect a little more balance on the Dallas side of the ball. Though if Dallas can establish a good 14 point lead early and start grinding it out with Jones and Barber before halftime, Anderson might start forcing stuff in the later part of the 3rd quarter. I'm looking at Jamal Lewis and while he's just around 30, I don't feel he is the RB he was a few years ago. I expect a down year from him. Just a hunch.

 

San Fransisco over Arizona- Leinart is in by the fourth quarter of a 21-0 game and probably leads them back to around 20 points. He then is the starter for the rest of the season.

 

San Diego over Carolina. I am a hardcore Jake Delhomme fan. Like him and Ben Roethlisberger are my top 2 non Saints players. And Johnathan Stewart was a FABULOUS draft pick for Carolina. But he is not LaDanian Tomilson. I'm not predicting a blow out because Carolina tends to surprise and SD started slow last year. Still if I was betting, which I'm not, I'd call SD.

 

Indianapolis over Chicago. This game reminds me of the opening games in college football. FBS Colts versus FCS Bears. Future first ballot hall of famer, Kyle Orton, leads his bears to within 35 points of the Colts avoiding a shut out. Oh and by Hall of Fame, I mean the Hall of Fame of Purdue. Poor Kyle. Have another beer.

 

Green Bay over Minnesota. I'm still scratching my head. Tarvaris Jackson...in the 2nd round? Really? That guy from Alabama State? Seriously? A 2nd round pick in the national football league? I'm excited to see how Jared Allen does in his new surroundings though. And Aaron Rogers in a game that matters, starting. Good luck pal.

 

Oakland over Denver....Aston Kutcher comes out at half time and tells Mike Shannahan, you've been punked! It is going to be a long season for both of these teams. Expect Denver to have a new coach in 2009. Possibly Lane Kiffin?

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Guest Tzar Lysergic
Based off last season, will we see more of a passing extreme?

 

No. Teams that do so will not be successful. I base this on a lack of *great* QBs in the league and the new premium on pass rushers. The name of the game in the NFL now is going to be balance and consistency. Defenses are leaning towards fast swarming units, too.

 

New England threw so much based on personnel.

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Great, now I won't be able to watch a Vikings game without hearing the tortured warbling of that emo dwarf.

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Great, now I won't be able to watch a Vikings game without hearing the tortured warbling of that emo dwarf.

 

I was more into it for the footage, not really the music.

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My Gawd...it's only the first quarter and I am already getting the "why did I leave work early for this shit" jitters......

 

The Redskins look lost on offense (granted it was only one series) but I still question Zorn's eagerness to show off his brand new WCO, when the Skins strength right now on offense is the running game in which he is keeping the same scheme for that they used under Gibbs.

 

The Skins D is ok, but can't get off the field on 3rd down because they aren't generating pressure. It is nice that Taylor is lining up, but not if he has a bum knee.

 

Oh Fuck Me, it's only the first quarter.

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Believe me, Mike, I want to see the Giants get stomped almost as badly as you do, after they ended the Packers' Super Bowl hopes last year. But I still picked the Giants by 3 TD's, and it's looking like Washington will be out of this game by the half. And after that Manning pass, it looks like they're about to go down 13-0 or 17-0. But there is a lot of time left, so who knows.

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Smoot sucks, I just know that from watching him with the Vikings.

 

Also I really hope the Redskins get their D going, because I'm against Eli and Plaxico this week in fantasy.

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The only thing that can keep my mindset positive is that maybe there is just a big learning curve for a new offensive system like a WCO because it is based on timing.

 

The Redskins O-line wasn't nearly this awful against the Giants D-line last season and this was with Osi & Strahan, and now all of the sudden they can't block/convert on a 3rd & 1? In fact if I remember correctly, the Redskins were pretty effective running the ball last season.

 

 

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Well shit, considering the way the half had gone up to that point I would have been happy with a FG.......Redskins get the ball at the start of the second half....so ummm Giants D, please keep giving us the gift that keeps on giving (penatlies)

 

(I have 2 black & tans and 3 scooby snacks in me so expect, typos, incoherence and complete nonsense in the second half)

 

So on the downside, the Redskins sucked for about 28 minutes of the first half. On the bright side, how much more can they really suck in the second half?

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Mike, what is a Scooby snack in the context you're referring to? Weed brownie?

 

 

Get a short glass,

 

1 oz Rum

1 oz Midori

1 oz Pineapple juice

1/2 oz cream

 

Pour over ice in a shaker....Shake it up and then pour into a short glass.

 

It is a shooter drink so you basically chug it all in one drink.

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Redskins offense showing a little life as Zorn smarts up and decides to utitlize Clinton fucking Portis.

 

I just hope the D can make enough stops to keep the Skins in this....thus far they have dropped to easy INTs...(Thanks a lot Smoot & Rogers)

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Soooo should I be happy the Redskins D got an INT, or depressed that their Offense wasted it.

 

I don't understand Zorn's playcalling, IMO, the Skins should have been using the Power Running Game to start off the game. Portis has been effective thus far. Yet they wait until the second half, when they are down and it is a two-score game. It feels like Gibbs 2.0 all over again.

 

I dunno if the Redskins D has kind of waked up, or the Giants are just going conservative because the Skins have shown no abiility to move the ball on offense.

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