Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio seem to be the toss up states.
There's rumblings in the conservative circles (talk radio and sites like wnd.com and newsmax.com) that the core conservative base (guys like me) is indeed pissed at Bush and may very well either A) stay home on election day or B) vote for the libertarian or some other 3rd party guy. Bush's team seems to think that the Iraq war will be enough to keep the conervatives "happy."
I think Bush is in deep trouble as he has nothing to gain. In order for him to win, he has to hold onto every one of those little red states that put him into office last time. The fact is, he's more likely to lose those states to Kerry than he is to steal one of the medium sized blue states that went to Gore in 2000. Bush needs to realize that voter apathy in the conservative block is for real this time.
What good would that do?