Rob E Dangerously

Keyes. He's running for higher office

http://babelogue.citypages.com:8080/pdemko/ *shrug* every few people out of 400 are a bit out there. Must be the high stress of Minnesota living

As for E-V.. that's very unstable but I've used the EV spreadsheet to estimate the national popular vote Each state has a percentage of the popular vote. I'm using the 2000 percentage (which is very similar to the 1992 and 1996 percentages) I multiply the candidate's state number by the percentage Example: According to the poll they have up (a Survey USA poll) Kerry has 50 percent in Florida Bush has 49 percent in Florida Multiply that by 0.056566734 Which comes out as follows Kerry: 2.8283367 Bush: 2.77177 those are the percentages of their popular vote from Florida You add all those up and you get a national percentage The current percentage using this formula is Kerry: 47.15% Bush: 46.88% Nader: 0.53% Undecided/Other: 5.43%

I'm pretty sure Paula Zahn whoops Hardball in the ratings

Several polls over the last week: TIPPs Last Wednesday: 47-44 Bush Today: 47-46 Bush Zogby 10/13: 45-45 10/20: 46-46 ABC/WaPo 10/13: 49-48 Bush 10/20: 50-47 Bush Rasmussen: 10/13: 47.6-46.2 Bush 10/20: 48.3-46.9 Bush Well, if you said "Bush isn't losing ground", that would be true too. The ABC poll was also at 50-47 last Tuesday. I guess the glass is half full Unless there's good news for Bush tomorrow, that RCP margin will drop tomorrow. "The truth is, we will slaughter them all" Forcing Hillary to step into the race as a replacement fulfilling the destiny of the ages and all. At least he's not calling Kerry a bozo and Edwards crazy. At this moment. This is coming from the school of "Liberal equals evil radical" although the only Kerry response I recall is that Bush is using labels. There's more that could be done, but I don't see it as too much of a harm. Feel free to link that back to reality. I'm pretty sure that involves a Church in Florida. but this wouldn't be going on if the notion wasn't so absurd. Mmhmm Never airs them.. Uh huh. As opposed to 'waiting until they are aired' I'd imagine there's some minor changes that are made before such an ad can air. There's still 12 days. Never say Never. Both sides exploit the press in their own ways. Sorta like how Bush gets national TV coverage for a few stump speeches (such as one that was two weeks ago and the one in New Jersey) by calling them "Major Addresses"

Go Favre! (nah.. that thing is a weird coincidence) Won't RCP drop the polls which started last Thursday when they update tomorrow? if so, that drops at least some of the following polls Newsweek (10/14-10/15): 50-44 Bush Time (10/14-10/15): 48-47 Bush Gallup (10/14-10/16): 52-44 Bush CBS News (10/14-10/17): 47-45 Bush Harris (10/14-10/17): 49.5-44.5 Bush Without those 5 polls, the RCP is 47.8-46 Bush, instead of 48.5-44.5 Bush But we'll see how the daily trackers swing and so on

RCP has FL and WI as tossups on their map. Basically, neither man is officially up A one point lead for the incumbent right now is not that secure.

Campaign rumors: #1 - Bush is going to be in Crawford on Saturday #2 - Bush is on his way to Greely, Colorado on Sunday Taking a day of rest with 10 campaign days left would be odd. But it could be justified.

Umm, charing intimidation whether it happens or not, playing to a fear of a non-existant draft, etc --- are not known as moves done from a position of power. Kerry's internal numbers CLEARLY are not good as he is simply throwing shit at the wall now. -=Mike negative internals would contradict a lot of recent poll results (which are narrow Bush leads or draws, both of which are not good for Bush). There's a lot of firing going on. It's near the end of the campaign. It seems Bush is on the defensive due to some of this. I'd imagine there'll be some stuff brought out by Bush's campaign soon. One post speculated on a "Battle of the Bulge"-ish idea, of throwing everything at Kerry, but I don't think there's signs of that happening right now Teresa is Teresa.. I don't see her saying stuff like that as a campaign tactic. Reasonable people don't vote for a guy based on his wife. Teresa's probably never had to deal with such attention and such a need to "spin"

Pull him Grady!

Philadelphia Daily News, 10/20/04 http://www.philly.com/mld/dailynews/news/l.../9963962.htm?1c *shrug* it's one of those weird deals. Because he was more likely to win than Toomey. Moderate Republicans in the Northeast are very hard to beat. Especially if you want Hoeffel to win the election. Feel free to gut the moderate wing of the party and replace them with Conservatives. Those four Senate seats (Snowe, Collins, Chaffee, Spector) weren't being used much anyways, so they'll be much better in the hands of the Democratic party.

from the Pew poll: 16 concerns of the swing voters are closer to the concerns of the Kerry voters by a 12-2 margin the "unsure" voters leaning closer to the POVs of the Kerry voters isn't a great sign for Bush. the average concerns of all 3 groups Economy - 78% Terrorism - 77% Jobs - 76% Education - 76% Health Care - 73% -- maybe there's an inner workings or a sign with the swing. Maybe we'll drink ourselves into a stupor 12 campaign days left anything is possible and 11 days left until we can stop hearing the phrase "October Surprise"

I don't think you have any proof to say it's a campaign tactic. Desperation.. nah.. if anything Kerry is getting some good momentum. I don't see any planned events that will have a huge impact on this election, but you never know about the unplanned.

7pm EST seems to be the time that coverage will kick into gear. When will it end? either early Wednesday or the middle of December

and Bucky threw out the first pitch

YOU SUCK ASS MICELI!

Are you kidding? She wants to be dictator. Hillary could be a dictator, unless you vote for John Kerry and make sure that Hillary won't be able to run until 2012!

well.. she wasn't lying, she really didn't know if Laura worked a day in her life. (j/k) THK will be all the fun of Hillary, only without the "She wants to be President" claims

John Kerry will crush your face!

oh yeah.. Go Packers!

He has two turntables and a microphone

Election-related wagers! Will Kerry win a county in any of the following states: Alaska Utah Wyoming Nebraska Will Bush win any counties in Massachusetts? Which state will have the largest "ticket-splitting"? my picks Oklahoma (Carson/Coburn) Illinois (Keyes/Obama) Alaska (Knowles/Murkowski) Ohio (Voinovich has no real struggle for re-election) Which third party candidates will finish with over 1%? (In the Pres. race, and Senate races) here's the Election Night Timeline: http://uselectionatlas.org/INFORMATION/ART...ecnighttime.php I predict they call Utah for Bush about 5 minutes after the polls close and Iowa closing the polls at 9pm is very odd, considering the polls close here at 7pm

there's no way in hell i'm leaving my room on election night. There's a lot of stuff to keep track of on the net

what's the minimum for Bush to have in other to beat the surge of undecided voters? I've heard Rove claim Bush has to have a 4 point lead I've heard that 2/3rds to 86% of undecided voters go to the challenger

RCP is down from 264-237 Bush (their count last Wednesday) Strategic Vision is very very questionable. Unless New Jersey is a real swing state.