Guest MikeSC Report post Posted September 3, 2004 Right after the DNC, I assumed that NEITHER candidate would get a "bounce" due to the divided nature of the electorate. I was, apparently, wrong. Campaign 2004: Bush Opens Double-Digit Lead TIME Poll: Among likely voters, 52% would vote for President George Bush, while 41% would vote for John Kerry and 3% would vote for Ralph Nader http://www.time.com/time/press_releases/ar...,692562,00.html Damn, that isn't pretty. And, Kerry's actions are not doing a damned thing to help him. Even worse, I suspect Bush will OWN him in the debates. -=Mike Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Styles 0 Report post Posted September 3, 2004 C'mon Mike, I bet this is some right wing rag, let's see, TIME...um...oh....that IS impressive. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
2GOLD 0 Report post Posted September 3, 2004 You know, I'm not really concerned as of yet. It's too early and one mild slip of tongue by Bush and Kerry could be right back in. If, you know, Kerry stopped bringing up stuff that isn't important and actually go with his bread and butter. I'm not exactly sure what his bread and butter is yet, but he needs a new plan other than "I WAS IN VIETNAM!" since that doesn't exactly grab anyone. Why doesn't Kerry just start showing off his policy instead of this war talk when he already admitted (I do believe, correct me if I'm wrong please) that he is NOT pulling the troops out of Iraq. He's not really that different from Bush in terms of the war talk so he's really just aiming for the bitter pissed voters who he already has. His campaign major better have a rabbit in that hat or it could become ugly...and by ugly I mean a bunch of rioters and angry Bush haters REALLY ticked off. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jesse_ewiak 0 Report post Posted September 3, 2004 I'd wait for the first poll taken after the convention, to be honest. Also, most polling outfits don't use only LV until after Labor Day. After all the post-convention polls are out, Bush's bounce will probably be about at what Kerry's was or a little higher, 3-5 point average. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dr. Tyler; Captain America 0 Report post Posted September 3, 2004 That poll is an outlier. http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=857 http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm Most of the polls have Bush +1-3 at most, which is normal for the convention bounce. Nothing unsurprising. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jesse_ewiak 0 Report post Posted September 3, 2004 Not to pile on, but wasn't there a poll out during the DNC that had Kerry out with a huge lead, then all the other polls came out and evened them out. I may be just misremembering....ouch, Bush-type word. :-) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
bobobrazil1984 0 Report post Posted September 3, 2004 anyone know how the swing state polls are? last time I heard (pre-Bush-Cheney speeches), kerry was up in those. meanwhile, Bush is leading in nationwide polls. I think there is a very real possibility that Bush could win the popular vote while losing the election. I kinda hope it does, so everybody can flip the flop and flop the flip, while still trying to scream and bash the other side behind the "hypocrisy shield" (i'm not attacking their position on the issue, just their hypocrisy!!!) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Styles 0 Report post Posted September 3, 2004 I think there is a very real possibility that Bush could win the popular vote while losing the election. I'll admit, that'd be pretty funny. That would be remarkeble though for 2 elections in a row to end up like that... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jesse_ewiak 0 Report post Posted September 3, 2004 I really should've edited this all in one post, but both ARG & Ramussed both have Bush up 2 and 4 respectivally in the same time period. Meaning of course, polls mean nothing. :-) Also TIME had Kerry up 51-44 after the DNC. So, yeah, there ya' go. Metro, on last count, Kerry was ahead in like 11 or 12 of the 16 "battleground" states. That was before the RNC though. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NoCalMike 0 Report post Posted September 3, 2004 Plus a poll not even 24 hours after the convention? Come on..... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NoCalMike 0 Report post Posted September 3, 2004 Even worse, I suspect Bush will OWN him in the debates. -=Mike Maybe if they allow Arnold on stage with him to help correct his english Seriously, the mere though of Bush owning ANYONE in a debate is mindboggling. I am not saying Bush can't have the performance of a lifetime and hold his own, but OWNING anyone in improvised answering to spur of the moment questions... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Guest MikeSC Report post Posted September 4, 2004 anyone know how the swing state polls are? last time I heard (pre-Bush-Cheney speeches), kerry was up in those. meanwhile, Bush is leading in nationwide polls. I think there is a very real possibility that Bush could win the popular vote while losing the election. I kinda hope it does, so everybody can flip the flop and flop the flip, while still trying to scream and bash the other side behind the "hypocrisy shield" (i'm not attacking their position on the issue, just their hypocrisy!!!) From RealClearPolitics.com: PA: Bush 47 - 45 IA: Bush 47 - 47 MI: Bush 42 - 45 MN:Bush 46- 47 OH: Bush 48 - 42 FL: Bush 48 - 44 WI: Bush 48 - 46 GA: Bush 55 - 36 CA: Depending on which of the two polls you use --- Bush either 42 - 51 OR 46 - 49 CO: Bush 47 - 47 AL: Bush 53 - 42 AK: Bush 56 - 33 CT: Bush 38 - 45 HI: Bush 41 - 48 ID: Bush 55 - 25 IL: Bush either 39 - 54 or 38 - 52 IN: Bush 52 - 40 KS: Bush either 56 - 36 or 57 - 39 KY: Bush 56 - 39 LA: Bush 54 - 38 MD: Bush 41 - 54 or 42 - 53 MA: Bush 30 - 56 or 30 - 59 MS: Bush 61 - 30 MT: Bush 53- 33 NJ: Bush either 43 - 51, 39 - 49, or 41 - 52 NY: Bush either 37 - 56 or 35 - 53 NC: Bush either 51 - 45 or 48 - 45 OK: Bush either 59 - 36 or 57 - 38 RI: Bush 25 - 49 SC: Bush 52 - 43 or 53 - 42 SD: Bush 51 - 35 or 48 - 34 TN: Bush 47.7 - 49.6 or 48 - 46 TX: Bush 58 - 37 or 57 - 38 UT: Bush 67 - 22 or 64 - 31 VT: Bush 36 - 51 VA: Bush 50 - 45 or 49 - 45 NV: Bush 46 - 47.7 or 49 - 46 NM: Bush 44.1 - 49.7, 42 - 49, or 46 - 46 ME: Bush 44 - 49 OR: Bush 42.6 - 53.9 WA: Bush 42 - 49 or 43 - 48 WV: Bush 49.3 - 41.5 In other words, presently, it's --- in terms of electoral votes: Bush: 263 Kerry: 227 And not many states left up in the air. Seriously, the mere though of Bush owning ANYONE in a debate is mindboggling. He owned Ann Richards and Gore thus far. -=Mike Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dr. Tyler; Captain America 0 Report post Posted September 4, 2004 CA: Depending on which of the two polls you use --- Bush either 42 - 51 OR 46 - 49 ... Bush isn't winning California, you doof. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Guest MikeSC Report post Posted September 4, 2004 CA: Depending on which of the two polls you use --- Bush either 42 - 51 OR 46 - 49 ... Bush isn't winning California, you doof. Did you FUCKING notice the SMALLER number in first, you SIMPERING fucking IDIOT? -=Mike ...Note Bush was the first name on ALL of the states, you twit... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Stephen Joseph 0 Report post Posted September 4, 2004 i think bush is the first number? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Guest MikeSC Report post Posted September 4, 2004 i think bush is the first number? Don't even bother. Hell, I figured Bush's name being first in MASSACHUSETTS and NEW YORK might have tipped off sparky. No such luck. -=Mike Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dr. Tyler; Captain America 0 Report post Posted September 4, 2004 OMG PWNED MIKE CALLED ME SIMPERING. You win the internet because I didn't read your post correctly http://www.electoral-vote.com/ has another analysis of the race, with Bush leading (barely) post-convention. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Guest MikeSC Report post Posted September 4, 2004 OMG PWNED MIKE CALLED ME SIMPERING. You win the internet because I didn't read your post correctly http://www.electoral-vote.com/ has another analysis of the race, with Bush leading (barely) post-convention. Of course, they actually have Bush outright winning the White House. -=Mike Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dr. Tyler; Captain America 0 Report post Posted September 4, 2004 Did you FUCKING notice the SMALLER number in first, you SIMPERING fucking IDIOT? Notice the bile, ladies and gentlemen. This is Zell Miller territory here; if this post is any indicator, Mike's currently beating the shit out of the wall or something. Calm down, internet friend! One needn't insult someone so vigorously ov'r the intarweb! Of course, they actually have Bush outright winning the White House. Indeed, but as you always say, there are a ridiculous number of states that are well within the MoE (Ohio, FL, etc.) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BX 0 Report post Posted September 4, 2004 I do recall Mike admitting admiration for Zell Miller. I think I'll challenge Mike to a duel, and maybe he'll grudgingly respect me, because dueling is an honorable trait. And maybe my stepfather will shove a pinecone up his ass. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jobber of the Week 0 Report post Posted September 4, 2004 I suspect Bush will OWN him in the debates. Too many years of prepared speeches and pre-approved questions have made you completely forget how Bush turns into a deer on the highway when he's forced to wing it. He came off very well at the RNC address. This may prove to be a problem, because he isn't going to be able to mirror that performance spontaneously. If he had come off looking worse at the RNC, people would be suprised to hear him form thoughts without screwing up and he'd suddently be heralded as a smart guy for finding out how to make it to the building that night. That's basically how it worked VS Gore. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rob E Dangerously 0 Report post Posted September 4, 2004 Any national poll that has Nader beating his 2000 numbers while on the ballot in 30 fewer states is one that is just bull I don't know why they just don't make it Bush/Kerry/Nader/Bednarik, Bednarik will probably finish better than Nader Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NYU 0 Report post Posted September 4, 2004 NY: Bush either 56 - 37 or 53 - 35 Whoa. How the hell did you come up with that number? There's no way Bush is going to win New York. Hopefully, you just made an incredibly inaccurate typo here. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
snuffbox 0 Report post Posted September 4, 2004 I don't know why they just don't make it Bush/Kerry/Nader/Bednarik, Bednarik will probably finish better than Nader If only he could pass the other two dudes... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Guest MikeSC Report post Posted September 4, 2004 NY: Bush either 56 - 37 or 53 - 35 Whoa. How the hell did you come up with that number? There's no way Bush is going to win New York. Hopefully, you just made an incredibly inaccurate typo here. Very much so. And very much been corrected. Bush has no prayer in NY. Now, if he can pull within, say, 5 points in CA, that'll cause a meltdown. -=Mike Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Guest Bad Brad Jacobs Report post Posted September 4, 2004 if bush wants to win a debate hes going to have to get a shitload better than he was on today. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Guest MikeSC Report post Posted September 4, 2004 if bush wants to win a debate hes going to have to get a shitload better than he was on today. He's only owned Gore and Richards. But I guess he does have more to prove. God knows Kerry has had tough debates in his career. -=Mike ...Hell, he can't even win a debate with the SBVT --- why does anybody think he can deal with Bush? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dr. Tyler; Captain America 0 Report post Posted September 4, 2004 Bush wins debates by lowering expectations. Everyone expects him to be a flat-out dolt on the podium, so when he isn't, he automatically wins the debate by virtue of his not completely sucking. However, this year, Kerry will have the same advantage. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
EricMM 0 Report post Posted September 4, 2004 I don't really care about polls in this case, becase like people've said, they're all pretty meaningless. I do agree with Jon Stewart off the Daily Show, when he comments on the fact that Bush has been parroting about what he will do and what he will do, but not what he DID do. Because IMO America hasn't improved since 2000, and that's at least partially Bush's fault. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Guest Smell the ratings!!! Report post Posted September 4, 2004 it's probably more Kerry's lack of actions that aren't helping him. the real questions of the election season are, in my opinion A. can Kerry outsuck Bush B. can thier combined suckage actually conjure a giant sucking vortex that sucks in the auditorium A is certianly possible. B, while not impossible, is highly unlikely. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
