Gallup Poll: Bush's 8 point lead is gone

[UZI Suicide 0]

After what is GWB's strongest area to debate, John Kerry has climbed back into the race. With the next two debates in Bush's weaker areas, this can only mean good things.

 

 

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselect...htm?POE=NEWISVA

[CheesalaIsGood 0]

ooooh! Liberal media bias! The red army will invade any minute now!

 

 

 

Now here comes the the old standard about how polls are meaningless and the debates don't sway anyone on how they vote.

[kkktookmybabyaway 0]

Well if it's Gallup, I guess that means in reality Kerry is UP by 8 points.

 

-=kkk, who remembers back in '96 Gallup polls being described as "liberal" and Zogby polls as "fair/conservative..."

[Kahran Ramsus 0]

Kerry won the debate. That much should be clear by now.

[CheesalaIsGood 0]

Kerry won the debate. That much should be clear by now.

Kahran, is gaining more ground or staying on top the deciding factor in showing who is truly the winner in that debate?

 

 

I still look at it as if the debate isn't over yet.

[Rob E Dangerously 0]

Gallup is.. interesting

 

they also had Gore down by 13 points in late October

 

and Kerry just covered a 13 point Gallup deficit

[bob_barron 0]

The national poll is meaningless.

 

Bush is still winning in Ohio, Florida and PA

[Guest Salacious Crumb]

From the National average it looks more like Kerry has leeched support from Nader overall more than he's stolen support from Bush.

[Guest Vitamin X]

Where the hell do these polls take place? Everyone I've talked to at my college pretty much agrees Kerry won the debate. It's hard to dispute that.

 

Ironically, the only people I've seen who still support Bush are either staunch Republicans or uneducated independents. Not to say that all those who support Bush belong in either one of those two categories, but this is from my experience in talking to people about the debate.

 

I'm not going to go through the 21 pages of the debate thread and add to that, so here's my thoughts on the debate since I'm here in Miami and also had the pleasure of attending the postdebate rally for John Kerry at the Miami Arena:

 

I felt Bush lost the debate in two particular areas-

1. When probed about the war in Iraq and constantly throughout the debate, he pressed on about Kerry being a flipflopper and that was addressed in the first 10 minutes by Senator Kerry saying that he knew he made a mistake and was at least, able to admit it, unlike Bush, which was a strong counterpoint. Nevertheless, fearless leader Dubya continued on with the SAME EXACT argument.. over, and over, and over again even though it had already been addressed in the beginning of the debate.

2. The "Ol' Missy Johnson" story. He deflected and avoided a pretty important question asked ("Do you believe that the American lives lost in Iraq was worth the reward of going to war there?" or something similar to that effect), and instead went off on this silly tangent about some personal story he had with this woman who lost her son in the war, all of which had nothing to do with the question. That was the point in the debate where I just thought "OK, that's it. Bush knocked himself out."

 

Also the body language played a pretty big part, and Bush seemed really quite uncomfortable and flustered at the majority of the questions.

[bobobrazil1984 0]

i'm glad it at least looks like a horse race again. Looks like we're going down to the wire.

[St. Gabe 0]

The national poll is meaningless.

 

Bush is still winning in Ohio, Florida and PA

All Polls are meaningless

 

I've Eaten Dinner in Ohio, Florida and PA

[Guest GreatOne]

After what is GWB's strongest area to debate, John Kerry has climbed back into the race. With the next two debates in Bush's weaker areas, this can only mean good things.

 

 

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselect...htm?POE=NEWISVA

Do we really have to address the Kerry-lovers masturbation over his 'victory' for the fourth straight day?

 

Was anyone, you know, actually paying attention to the content?

 

Maybe Cameron SHOULDN'T have been taken to task for 'John Kerry: Metrosexual' if that's the case.........................

[Guest MikeSC]

Again, totally changing the sampling might change the outcome?

 

I'm shocked.

-=Mike

[Rob E Dangerously 0]

Care to provide proof that the following party ID samples are an accurate depiction of America?

 

43% Republicans, 31% Democrats, 25% Independents

40% Republicans, 33% Democrats, 27% Independents

 

those were the samples for the 9/13-9/15 and 9/24-9/26 Gallup polls

 

The 9/24-9/26 poll's sample percentage of Republicans is only outdone by the March 26-28 poll (which sampled 44% Republicans and that was 51-47 Bush)

 

So.. is America 43% Republican?

[Guest MikeSC]

Pew has Bush up by 7. Rasmussen still has him up by 3.

-=Mike

...And we won't even go into the state-by-state polls...

[Rob E Dangerously 0]

Are you going to answer the question or not?

 

for the skeptical types: http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselect...29-gop-poll.htm

[Guest MikeSC]

Are you going to answer the question or not?

 

for the skeptical types: http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselect...29-gop-poll.htm

A total change of sampling will change the results.

 

I know you can't prove that the current sample is accurate.

-=Mike

[Dr. Tom 0]

Kerry won the debate. That much should be clear by now.

To those who didn't watch it, or who watched it with the sound turned down, I suppose it is.

[Dr. Tyler; Captain America 0]

Bush is winning in Pennsylvania?

 

Since when?

[Rob E Dangerously 0]

and I guess you can't show me how the previous samples were an accurate depiction of reality.

 

Pew has Bush up by 7

 

and up 4 among likely voters.

 

Which is more realistic? (hint: not the one that has your guy up more)

 

http://people-press.org/reports/tables/227.pdf

 

And somehow.. their polls went from 48-40 Bush to 48-41 Bush while Bush lost support on Independent voters (from 46 to 42) and Democrats (from 10 to 9 percent) while keeping support from Republicans (90 percent). Bush only stood his ground with one party, lost ground with the Democrats and with Independent voters, and remained at 48%

 

but here's the Pew methodology: http://people-press.org/reports/methodology.php3

 

About Methodology in Detail

 

Sample for our surveys are random digit samples of telephone numbers selected from telephone exchanges in the continental United States. The random digit aspect of the sample is used to avoid "listing" bias and provides representation of both listed and unlisted numbers (including not-yet-listed). The design of the samples ensures this representation by random generation of the last two digits of telephone numbers selected on the basis of their area code, telephone exchange, and bank number.

 

The telephone exchanges are selected with probabilities proportional to their size. The first eight digits of the sampled telephone numbers (area code, telephone exchange, bank number) are selected to be proportionally stratified by county and by telephone exchange within county. That is, the number of telephone numbers randomly sampled from within a given county is proportional to that county's share of telephone numbers in the U.S. Only working banks of telephone numbers are selected. A working bank is defined as 100 contiguous telephone numbers containing one or more residential listings.

 

The sample is released for interviewing in replicates. Using replicates to control the release of sample to the field ensures that the complete call procedures are followed for the entire sample. The use of replicates also ensures that the regional distribution of numbers called is appropriate. Again, this works to increase the representativeness of the sample.

 

At least 10 attempts are made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone number. The calls are staggered over times of day and days of the week to maximize the chances of making a contact with a potential respondent. All interview breakoffs and refusals are re-contacted at least once in order to attempt to convert them to completed interviews. In each contacted household, interviewers ask to speak with the "youngest male 18 or older who is at home." If there is no eligible man at home, interviewers asked to speak with "the oldest woman 18 or older who is at home." This systematic respondent selection technique has been shown empirically to produce samples that closely mirror the population in terms of age and gender.

 

Non-response in telephone interview surveys produces some known biases in survey-derived estimates because participation tends to vary for different subgroups of the population, and these subgroups are likely to vary also on questions of substantive interest. In order to compensate for these known biases, the sample data are weighted in analysis.

 

The demographic weighting parameters are derived from a special analysis of the most recently available Annual Social & Economic Supplement data from the Census Bureau (March 2003). This analysis produces population parameters for the demographic characteristics of households with adults 18 or older, which are then compared with the sample characteristics to construct sample weights. Analyses only include households in the continental United States that contain a telephone. The weights are derived using an iterative technique that simultaneously balances the distributions of all weighting parameters.

[Guest MikeSC]

Bush is winning in Pennsylvania?

 

Since when?

RealClearPolitics' average has Bush up.

-=Mike

[Rob E Dangerously 0]

http://www.theleftcoaster.com/archives/002932.html

 

For the last several weeks, I have questioned how Gallup can put out polls with registered and likely voter samples that contained large GOP biases unsupported by recent electoral history. For example, the Gallup national polls of early and late September were based on samples that contained 40% and then 43% GOP respondents respectively. Gallup says they don’t weight their samples by party ID but rather by census/demographic factors, because they believe there are large swings in how voters self-identify themselves in the weeks leading up to the election. Other pollsters such as John Zogby feel that party self-identification isn’t as volatile as Gallup believes, and do weight their samples for party ID, with the result that the race ends up being much closer than Gallup and others portray.

 

Well yesterday, Gallup released its latest national poll carried by USA Today and CNN. According to the latest poll, Gallup shows the race tied at 49% amongst likely voters, and with Bush having a 49%-47% lead over Kerry amongst registered voters. This came after the most recent Gallup poll in late September amongst likely voters showed Bush with a 8% lead of 52%-44%, and a 53%-42% spread amongst registered voters. How is it possible that in the space of one week after one debate an 8% lead amongst likely voters has evaporated, and an 11% lead amongst registered voters has dwindled to 2%? Did the race shift that much because of one debate? If it did, this is the biggest story of the last several days.

 

After weeks of complaints that Gallup's samples had a GOP bias, note that their likely and registered voter results in yesterday's poll were based on party ID samples composed very closely along the lines of the 2000 exit poll turnout.

 

Likely Voter Samples

 

Poll of September 13-15

Reflected Bush Winning by 55%-42%

 

GOP: 40%

Dem: 33%

Ind: 28%

 

Poll of September 24-26

Reflected Bush Winning by 52%-44%

 

GOP: 43%

Dem: 31%

Ind: 25%

 

Poll of October 1-3

Reflected Dead Heat 49%-49%

772 Likely Voters

 

GOP: 35%

Dem: 39%

Ind: 26%

 

Folks, for Gallup’s likely voter methodology to be accurate you would have to accept that there was a 16% swing in party self-identification in one week, with 8% fewer likely voters self-identifying as Republicans and 8% more self-identifying as Democrats.

 

Registered Voter Samples

 

Poll of September 13-15

Reflected Bush Winning by 52%-44%

 

GOP: 38%

Dem: 33%

Ind: 28%

 

Poll of September 24-26

Reflected Bush Winning by 54%-41%

 

GOP: 40%

Dem: 31%

Ind: 28%

 

Poll of October 1-3

Reflected Bush Winning by 49%-47%

934 Registered Voters

 

GOP: 36%

Dem: 38%

Ind: 26%

 

But note that although Gallup’s registered voter sample shows only a 2% Democratic edge, which still results in a 2% lead for Bush over Kerry, this same poll had the following preferences:

 

GOP Respondents

Bush: 94%

Kerry 3%

 

Democratic Respondents

Kerry: 89%

Bush: 10%

 

Independent Respondents

Kerry: 54%

Bush: 40%

 

Kerry’s 14% margin with Independents is the largest he has had since before the Democratic convention. So why does Bush still lead him amongst registered voters by 2% when Indies make up over a quarter of Gallup’s registered voter sample?

 

As Zogby and other party ID advocates have stated, one wonders what these results would be like if these polls had been weighted all along to take into account party ID. For Gallup’s methodology to be credible, you would have to believe that huge swings in party ID in just one week after one debate are normal.

[NoCalMike 0]

Are we still not to the point yet that we can realize that the polls are useless.

[Vern Gagne 0]

It should be pointed out that Bush is still well ahead in questions of protecting America, being a more agressive leader, making unpopular decisions, and overall likeability.

[EricMM 0]

Of course...

 

everyone likes a monkey...

 

I'm sorry!

 

.

.

.

 

Actually. . . .I'm not sorry!

 

Bush got schooled if you think Kerry was right and he didn't if you don't. Duh.

[Justice 0]

Bush got schooled if you think Kerry was right and he didn't if you don't. Duh.

OMFG! H0\/\/ C4|\| +|-|4+ B3?!!?!?!111!!!

 

Wow. At least someone here gets it.

 

Are we still not to the point yet that we can realize that the polls are useless.

 

Naw. We love cock-measuring contests. This is CE, remember?

[Guest TheLastBoyscout]

The national poll is meaningless.

 

Bush is still winning in Ohio, Florida and PA

As someone who actually lives in PA, I can safely say that Kerry has this place locked up.

[Guest GreatOne]

Oooo, that's convincing...............

[Guest TheLastBoyscout]

Kerry won the debate.  That much should be clear by now.

To those who didn't watch it, or who watched it with the sound turned down, I suppose it is.

Denial is more than a river in Egypt.

[Guest GreatOne]

Hah, you made funny

 

EDIT: No you didn't