2006-07 MLB Offseason Thread

[CanadianChris 0]

I don't know who got robbed the most, but Justin Morneau's now the biggest award thief this side of Terry Pendleton.

[The Man in Blak 0]

1987, part deux.

[geniusMoment 0]

In wake of recent contracts I decided to compile this list out of remaining free agents, hoping that the Reds will not fall for some of these traps.

 

Overpaid

1. Gary Matthews Jr.

 

Word is that he's been offered over 10M a year already and is seeking a 4 yr. 48M deal.

With one solid season under his belt that is truly ridiculous.

 

Prediction: 4 years, 42M with the Giants.

 

2. J.D. Drew

 

Not only did he opt out of his 11M/yr. deal, he apparently will settle for something

13-15M/yr. While he was very solid when healthy, his health has been horrible throughout

his entire career.

 

Prediction: 3 years, 40M from the Orioles.

 

 

3. Vincente Padilla

 

Is looking for over 10M a year and up to 12M for 4 years. Very ridiculous considering his

consistency. He has been a #2 starter in the past but at other times a #4 or #5. His

health has also been questionalbe. The Phillies unloaded him last year so clearly he is not

this stud.

 

Prediction: 4 years, 42M from the Red Sox.

 

4. Barry Zito

 

He's good but he's not going to be worth the 15+M/yr. he will get. His stuff is not that

great besides his amazing curveball; given his less than stellar 2004, he is not really an

ace right now but instead a very good #2 starter. 15 or more M a year for that is way too

much.

 

Prediction: 6 years, 95M from the Mets.

 

5. Jeff Weaver

 

His excellent postseason will give him a fat 2 or 3 year deal for about 5-7M per year.

Maybe not the kind of $ he wanted to get orginally but very good for him considering he was

released midseason (and had a 3-10. 6.29 line). Some desperate team will far for him,

however. He has been putrid the past four years... two campaigns w/ over a 5.75 ERA and 150

IP. The other two years were in Dodger Stadium and still were very mediocre.

 

Prediction: 2 years, 13M from the Cubs with a 7M 2009 option.

 

6. Gil Meche

 

He is seeking 8-10M a year and considering he has never posted better than #4 starter #'s

and he's spent his entire career in a pitchers park, that is pathetic. He does have good

stuff and may flourish as a closer but for the money he wants that's a ridiculous gamble.

 

Prediction: 4 years, 32M from the Blue Jays.

 

7. Eric Gagne

 

Given his health the fact that he is seeking (and probably will get) a 1 yr. 10M deal, shows

the desperate nature of some teams. In most years pitchers coming off injuries would get

2-3M/ year at most.

 

Prediction: 1 year, 10M from the Red Sox.

 

8. Scott Schoeneweis

 

Seeking a four year deal; considering he was practically given away midseason, that is

ridiculous. He was solid for the Reds but definately a very overrated player.

Prediction: 3 years, 12M from the Giants.

 

9. Ted Lilly

 

He used to be underrated but now he is grossly overrated. He's 31 and has pitched over 150

IP only three times; never 200 IP. His Milton-esque 2005 campaign is a sign that he's very

inconsistent and can be very attrocious at times. His best seasons are just in the

4.00-4.50 range; not bad but definately not worth the 10M a year he is seeking. Again, he

could be Eric Milton version 2.0. While he likely won't get over 10M, 9M is likely.

 

Prediction: 4 years, 36M from the Cubs.

 

 

10. Julio Lugo

 

He is the best middle infielder on the market and posted solid #'s but considering his

collapse down the stretch for the Dodgers, he is not very good. The Astros let him go a few

years ago and he has only flourished in a non-pressure environment. His price tag went down

some but still is very high considering his less than impressive career thus far.

 

Prediction: 4 years, 32M from the Red Sox.

 

(Note: No predictions for underpaid players).

 

Underpaid

1. Trot Nixon

 

Could be the best bargain of the offseason; probably seeking 5M a year. Considering J.D., a

very similar player statistically (when both are healthy) with similar health issues is

seeking nearly three times as much, Nixon is a bargain. He posted a .974 OPS in 2003 and

almost always a .800+ OPS.

 

2. Tony Armas Jr.

 

Had a questionable health history, however, is still young and can rebound. Could also be

an effective closer or in the pen somewhere; never has been tried before in his career.

Probably will only get 2-3M a year at most.

 

3. Ryan Klesko

 

Coming off his injury, he could be a great choice for a rebound. In a hitters park, healthy

and used in a platoon role, his numbers would be great. Likely

 

4. Jose Guillen

 

Coming off a horrible year but his injuries affected him. Considering he spent the past few

years in a pitchers park, his numbers suffered as well. Could be a great deal for 5M or so.

 

5. Kenny Lofton

 

Once was a very overrated player but now just the opposite; he quietly posts .300 with solid

speed. His range is declining but in a corner outfield spot he'd be a cheap and reliable

option for a 1-2 year deal.

 

6. Javy Lopez

 

Just like Lofton, he was once overrated but now is underrated. The catching market is thin

but Javy could rebound to almost certainly not his 2003 form but at least his 2004 form. A

1 yr. 2-3M deal would be a great deal; taking his release into consideration in September it

is possible. He might even be a solid DH/backup catcher.

 

7. Tomo Okha

 

An underrated middle of the rotation starter, for abotu 5M a year he'd be a steal

considering what guys like Meche or Padilla will get. When healthy he has posted very solid

numbers for a #3 starter.

 

8. Cliff Floyd

 

He can be a major offensive threat when healthy but ideally for an AL team as a DH. His

2005 numbers were very decent and for a team like the Twins a 1 yr. 4M deal would be great.

 

9. Mark Mulder

 

There's a lot of interest and given his uncertain health it may lead to overpaying but

there's still a chance he can be an ace... for the 5-6M he'll get that is a great deal.

 

10. Dave Dellucci

 

He is very effective when he plays and like Mulder might receive too much interest to be a

bargain, however, his effectiveness in his limited time and the chance of him posting very

decent #'s makes him a good deal. He likely won't get more than 5M a year as well.

 

Honorable Mention:

Craig Wilson, Luis Gonzalez, Jason Schmidt, Shannon Stewart

[treble 0]

The Canadian media's never going to shut up about Morneau now.

[CanadianChris 0]

The Canadian media's never going to shut up about Morneau now.

Agreed. I'm going to have to avoid TSN and Sportsnet for the next week or so. I'm predicting an endless debate of Nash vs. Morneau for Canadian athlete of the year during the next month.

[Failed Bridge 0]

Twins don't make the playoffs without Morneau IMO...I still think the Yanks make it even if Jeter went down (Boston did their best MASH unit impersonation and the Jays just weren't there yet either) and the Red Sox didn't make the playoffs so that nixes Ortiz to me. Thus Justin was the most important to his team's success.

 

I actually told my co-workers 3 weeks ago that he would be the AL MVP...I should have taken up the manager on his $100 bet but I didn't think Justin would be able to overcome the media's hard-on for Jeter.

[Bored 0]

Never underestimate the stupidity of baseball writers and their obsession with runs batted in.

[Failed Bridge 0]

I would say Morneau personally killed the Red Sox in all their meetings for 06

[naiwf 0]

Santana got robbed the most IMO. It baffles me how Morneau got enough votes to win when 2 of his teammates finished 6th and 7th. It's almost like the writers didn't want to give it to Jeter, couldn't give it to Ortiz, Thomas or Dye and said fuck it Morneau had more RBIs than Mauer so he wins. Having said all that, the person(s) who voted A-Rod 5th and Jeter 6th on one ballot should be cockslapped repeatedly.

[CanadianChris 0]

Getting back to yesterday's topic, and the coverage thereof, I'm not ashamed to admit that I have a little man-crush on the guys who run FJM:

 

http://firejoemorgan.blogspot.com/2006/11/...nk-quietly.html

[Brett Favre 0]

This upsets me more than I thought it would. Stupid shithead writers piss me off.

 

I thought Morenau's OPS would atleast be well above Jeters, but it's barely higher, with Jeter stealing 34 bases. We should all become sports writers. Obviously, you don't have to know shit about the sport to be successful either.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

I kind of like this Keith Law guy over at espn. From his blog:

 

The reality of baseball is that a great offensive player at an up-the-middle position is substantially more valuable than a slightly better hitter at a corner position. And when that up-the-middle player is one of the best fielders at his position in baseball, there's absolutely no comparison. Joe Mauer was more valuable than Justin Morneau this past season. If you don't understand that, you don't understand the first thing about baseball.

[megaadvice 0]

A starting pitcher would have to go 28-2 with a >1.00 ERA to win the MVP.

[Guest Smues]

A starting pitcher would have to go 28-2 with a >1.00 ERA to win the MVP.

 

So if he went 28-2 with an ERA of 0.76 he'd lose?

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

I thought it was just the writers who were idiots, but it turned out it's everyone.

 

1) Should Justin Morneau have won the AL MVP award?

 

54.8% Yes

 

45.2% No

 

2) Should Ryan Howard have won the NL MVP award?

 

64.9% Yes

 

35.1% No

 

Dan Patrick said on his radio show today that this vote symbolized the writers taking things seriously and doing their homework instead of just handing it to the easy choice. Uh, what? Isn't this the exact opposite of doing your homework?

[vivalaultra 0]

The way that I remember the difference between < and > is that < means "greater than" because the < symbol resembles Pac-Man with mouth agape, and Pac-Man eats bigger numbers.

 

In other news, the LA Times said today that Carlos Lee doesn't want to play for a West Coast team, ruling out the report that he had signed with the Giants. The article mentioned the 'Stros and the O's as the two biggest suitors for El Caballo, with the Phillies as the Wild Card. However, if the Phils did get Carlos Lee, I think it would be probable that they'd be looking to trade Pat Burrell, and, if it came to that, I'd love for the 'Stros to jump on the much maligned Pat "the Bat". And I find it interesting that yesterday the Astros added two AAA players to the 40-man roster, 1...Johnny Ash a 2B who is supposedly better than Chris Burke, and the other a CF, Mike Rodriguez. Could this be signalling an impending trade of Chris Burke and/or Willy Taveras? Possibly.

[naiwf 0]

The way that I remember the difference between < and > is that < means "greater than" because the < symbol resembles Pac-Man with mouth agape, and Pac-Man eats bigger numbers.

 

Apparently Texans don't teach/learn math properly.

 

< is less than

 

> is greater than

[Vern Gagne 0]

I thought it was just the writers who were idiots, but it turned out it's everyone.

 

1) Should Justin Morneau have won the AL MVP award?

 

54.8% Yes

 

45.2% No

 

2) Should Ryan Howard have won the NL MVP award?

 

64.9% Yes

 

35.1% No

 

Dan Patrick said on his radio show today that this vote symbolized the writers taking things seriously and doing their homework instead of just handing it to the easy choice. Uh, what? Isn't this the exact opposite of doing your homework?

 

People hate the Yankees, and people are starting to hate Albert Pujos.

[Guest NYankees]

Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun Times was on Mike and the Mad Dog to defend putting Jeter 6th on the ballot. This guy was one big tool who couldn't make one valid argument because he was all over the place.

[vivalaultra 0]

The way that I remember the difference between < and > is that < means "greater than" because the < symbol resembles Pac-Man with mouth agape, and Pac-Man eats bigger numbers.

 

Apparently Texans don't teach/learn math properly.

 

< is less than

 

> is greater than

 

 

Ah, naiwf, you have misunderstood me yet again. Let's look at an example:

 

4 < 6. It is true that 4 "is less than" 6. With me so far? Good. Going back to my "Pac-Man" reference where I said "Pac-Man eats bigger numbers", would Pac-Man not eat the 6 since it is bigger than 4? Still with me? Good. Let's try the inverse. 6 > 4. 6 "is greater than" 4. Now, look at Pac-Man? Which number is he eating? The bigger number! See? Pac-Man always eats the bigger number, be it on the left of the inequality or the right of the inequality. The designations of < meaning "less than" or > meaning "greater than" do not come into play in my example, as I've covered for both. Any questions?

[naiwf 0]

The example makes sense, starting off by saying that you remember the difference with < actually meaning "greater than" doesn't.

[vivalaultra 0]

Well, a bunch of Texan 4th graders can understand the concept. If you can't, it might be something you're doing wrong. Oh well. Next week, we'll tackle multiplying fractions with unlike denominators.

[naiwf 0]

Or, in NYC we were taught that < is less than and the easiest way to remember that is it looks like an "L". We didn't need to remember it backwards because of a video game character.

 

Or to use proper notation, NYC's teaching methods are < convoluted than Texas'.

 

To get back on topic I must admit it's funny seeing how enraged Yankees fans are that Christ Jeter didn't win the MVP this year, but last year they thought it was hi-larious that Sawx fans were bitching about Big Papi getting swerved.

[Guest NYankees]

Just like how Mets fans were peeing in their pants because Willie Randolph didn't win NL Manager of the Year but Joe Girardi did. I heard 5 times more Mets fans call WFAN and bitching about that than Yankee fans complain about Jeter.

[vivalaultra 0]

< doesn't look like an L! The < is all slanty! How did you New Yorkers learn the order of the planets from the sun? Was it "My Very Eager Mother Just Sent Us Nine Pizzas" or did you have a...less convoluted method? Teach me, naiwf!!

 

So, anybody hear about the Chad Cordero for Wily Mo trade rumor that's been bandied about? I think it would be a good deal for Boston, but I don't have any real opinion. I only ask as a way to get out of this monkey business with naiwf.

[Vern Gagne 0]

I'm no longer a Twins fan, because I didn't think Morneau deserved to win.

[the max 0]

< doesn't look like an L! The < is all slanty! How did you New Yorkers learn the order of the planets from the sun? Was it "My Very Eager Mother Just Sent Us Nine Pizzas" or did you have a...less convoluted method? Teach me, naiwf!!

 

So, anybody hear about the Chad Cordero for Wily Mo trade rumor that's been bandied about? I think it would be a good deal for Boston, but I don't have any real opinion. I only ask as a way to get out of this monkey business with naiwf.

 

Jesus fucking Christ.

 

3 < X The value of 3 is less than the value of X.

X < 3 The value of X is less than the value of 3.

3 > X The value of 3 is greater than the value of X.

X > 3 The value of X is greater than the value of 3.

 

It's all relative to where the larger number is. That said, < is widely considered to be the "less than" because it looks like a goddamn 'L'. If you don't think it looks like an 'L', it certainly looks more like one than >. The Pacman/Alligator/Dinosaur thing may be hot shit in all Texas high schools and colleges, but it stopped being teached that way to us "Yankees" in the north in the fourth grade.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

So, anybody hear about the Chad Cordero for Wily Mo trade rumor that's been bandied about? I think it would be a good deal for Boston, but I don't have any real opinion. I only ask as a way to get out of this monkey business with naiwf.

 

I heard it and I don't like it. Once again, I would not trade a 25-year-old slugger with Pena's potential for a relief pitcher, unless I was damn sure that the reliever was a special talent (Cordero might be; I'm still not sold). They are far too volatile to risk giving up a prime positional player. Just let Manny Delcarmen close and be done with it. Acquire a reliever midseason if things aren't working out, but don't start axing talent because you are desperate. That's how we ended up losing Cla Meredith and Josh Bard.

[CanadianChris 0]

I kind of like this Keith Law guy over at espn. From his blog:

 

The reality of baseball is that a great offensive player at an up-the-middle position is substantially more valuable than a slightly better hitter at a corner position. And when that up-the-middle player is one of the best fielders at his position in baseball, there's absolutely no comparison. Joe Mauer was more valuable than Justin Morneau this past season. If you don't understand that, you don't understand the first thing about baseball.

I read that earlier, and it was outstanding. A couple of other parts I liked:

 

It's hard to fathom why any voter would put Morneau at the top of his ballot with so many obviously better candidates -- Mauer, Jeter, Ortiz, Jermaine Dye, unanimous Cy Young Award winner Johan Santana or the criminally neglected Carlos Guillen (the best player on the AL pennant winner) -- and in reality, more than half the voters did just that. If you don't watch the games, fellas, don't fill out your ballots.

 

Incidentally, the following voters should be removed from the voting process permanently:

 

• The guy who put Jeter sixth.

• The guy who put Mauer 10th ... and the five guys who left him off their ballots entirely.

• The three guys who put Frank Thomas second.

• The guy who put A.J. Pierzynski 10th.

 

It's time for some of these voters to put aside their fantasy-baseball mentality -- one that assumes that RBI measure something important and that OBP is a hip-hop song from the early 1990s -- and to take the MVP vote seriously again.

[Slayer 0]

Hey, the sooner you guys stop arguing about first grade math, the sooner you can go back to deriding the MVP voting