Summer Box Office...

[cabbageboy 0]

As long as POTC doesn't go the way of the Matrix series and have a craptastic 3rd movie, it should be massive. Thing is, it did leave viewers with the sense of "What will happen next?" I guess the HP series also does that but those movies are all sorta self contained.

 

With 28 Weeks Later...why would this be a huge hit? The first one made 45 million (82 worldwide). It'll do solid enough business and make an impact on DVD.

[razazteca 0]

Hairspray is a remake of the John Waters movie? With Christopher Walken and Amanda Bynes in it I predict that the movie will make $40 total for its run in the US if it is given a big release of at least 2000 screens.

 

Will Superbad be released on more than 800 screens?

[MarvinisaLunatic 0]

Shrek, Pirates and Spiderman all come out in May, and that has got to make a dent in the box office that each makes. Spiderman gets 2 weeks to itself, then Shrek, then Pirates the next week, and they all pretty much appeal to everyone..so..my guess is Shrek takes the hit at the box office after #1 opening weekend.

 

I wont even attempt a tirade on the fact you have 3 "3rd movies in a blockbuster trilogy" coming out in the span of 3 weeks to start out the summer..and then like..crap for the rest of the summer including I think 3 or 4 other "3rd movies in a trilogy" with Rush Hour, Bourne and Oceans, plus whatever # Harry Potter movie they're on and a 4th Die Hard Movie that absolutely no one is clammoring for.

 

Transformers is going to bomb. The trailer is the stupidest thing Ive ever seen and its only really appealing to the transformer nerds out there who will probably be put off by it anyway "OMG.."insert something that isn't exactly the cartooon" isn't right!!

 

Simpsons is going to die by the same thing..I just dont think the show will translate to a movie, even though I wanna see it on the day it opens.

 

I like how you can mention Ratatouille (fine vegetable dish by the way..yum) and not mention the stupid surfing penguins movie Surfs Up from Sony which looks to be funnier than Shrek 3 and Rat combined.

 

Ive got a sleeper for you..Delta Farce..all the Rednecks are gonna go see that.

[KingPK 0]

5. Rush Hour 3

 

The last Rush Hour made 226 million, but that was 6 years ago. Does anyone even remember Chris Tucker? They were smart to push it to the end of the summer, but I don't think they'll get 200 million. 150 mil maybe. I could also see this one being the flop of the summer.

 

For that matter, Jackie Chan hasn't really been very active (in this country, at least) over the last few years since he made the decision to slow down. He's basically had the Shanghai movies with Owen Wilson (EDIT: And Shanghai Noon came out before RH2) and the Disney remake of Around the World in 80 Days and that's it. It'll probably pass $100M if it gets a good marketing push, but it'll struggle to crack $150M, I think.

Edited April 27, 2007 by KingPK

[bobobrazil1984 0]

1. Pirates of the Carribean:400 million---Last one of a high grossing series, and mom, dad, and the kids can all go

2. Shrek 3:400 million---Same as above, but, PoC will have thismuch more drawing power

3. Spiderman 3: 300 million---Not getting as much buzz, and, it's coming out next week and no one I know has said "Hey...wanna go see Spidey?"

 

THere is no way that Shrek and Pirates both pull in 400 million each because of their release schedules. They're ONE WEEK APART! Whichever comes out 2nd will seroiusly cut into the 1st's box office take - or if the 1st movie has the longevity factor then it will cut into the 2nd's opening weekend - and you need seroius longevity to even get past 200 million. Heck, even all 3 movies topping 300 million in one month is a bit on the iffy side. What Marvin said above sounds right.

 

I really think one of these 3 is going to "flop" (in the sense that it draws something like 200 to 250 million). I'm not sure, but my hunch is it might be Shrek - only because Spidey's two "uncontested" weeks will let it rake in a bunch of money without being dented by Shrek or Pirates. At that point its pick your poison, i'm picking shrek just because.

[Insanity 0]

I think Shrek 3 is being given too much praise here. I mean..yeah the second was is the #3 highest grossing film of all time. But I just have this feeling that Spider-Man 3 and Pirates will do better than it. It'll come in at #3 at least for this summer.

 

Evan Almighty is going to be a huge bomb. Nancy Drew as well.

[Atticus Chaos 0]

Nancy Drew could be a sleeper hit. I can't imagine it had that big of a budget, and it might prove a hit with kids.

[MarvinisaLunatic 0]

3. Spiderman 3: 300 million---Not getting as much buzz, and, it's coming out next week and no one I know has said "Hey...wanna go see Spidey?"

 

So, do you live under a rock or have you been in space for the last..oh..year or so?

[Gary Floyd 0]

Spiderman 3, Shrek the 3rd, Harry Potter, and POTC will make the most money, that's for sure. Spiderman is the only one of those 4 I'm interested in seeing. I never liked the Shrek or POTC movies.

 

Rush Hour 3 will make some money, but I don't see it being a big enough draw. It's been awhile since we've seen Jackie Chan in a movie, and it's been a while since we had a Rush Hour Movie. I see the same happening to I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry. Bourne Ultimatum will probably do better, as will Evan Almighty.

 

The Simpsons movie will do good, but not great. Of all the movies getting released this summer, this one isn't getting as much hype as I thought it would.

 

28 Weeks Later won't make the top spot, but it will make enough to warrent a third sequal (which is already being planned. Boyle apparently wants it to be a trilogy. I like this idea. I know that they aren't technically zombies, but I like the idea something like the Living Dead trilogy for a new generation.)

 

Hostel II and Invasion will do alright, but not great. As of late, R-rated horror seems to be losing momentum (see the fact that Grindhouse tanked, and Disturbia is doing better than Vacancy) Also, interesting fact: Invasion is actually the 3rd remake of Invasion of the Body Snatchers to be made so far.

 

Ratatouille will do great. Whether or not it will do better than Shrek doesn't matter to me, since it will most likely be better.

 

Halloween and Knocked Up will definately be the big sleeper hits of the year. Halloween in particular, since it's Rob Zombe doing something new with Michael Myers, which good or bad, is definately of interest to horror fans and the general movie going public. The big problem is that Rob has yet to have a big Box Office hit, which Judd Apatow has had.

 

Superbad will end up being the Harold and Kumar of this summer: It won't do great in the Box Office, but it will get good word of mouth.

 

I agree that Transformers will go the way of Hulk: it will take the top spot in it's first week, but then plummet.

 

Fantastic Four 2 will do good, though Nancy Drew will most likely do just ok.

[reign 0]

Yeah I'm not really sure why that person said that there's not much hype for Spiderman even though it comes out next week...does it really need any more hype at this point? There's midnight showings at every single theatre in the area...it'll do big business with no problems and will be the movie that many people will go see again where as I certainly wouldn't hit POTC or Shrek a second time...I do think both the latter movies will be huge though as entire families will go see both..but Spiderman will rule the summer...

On a side note I think that word of mouth will help many of these "sleeper films" like 28 Weeks Later and Knocked Up which will both get critical success and will be nice changes from the summer explosions..

 

Biggest Waste-ANYBODY who goes to watch DeltaFarce...

[Craig Th 0]

I can't see Halloween doing well at all. It isn't like Rob Zombie is Oliver Stone. His movies has done less than $30 million in the US and the Halloween franchise is a decent money maker. It will make $30 million, if even that.

[bob_barron 0]

I can't see Halloween doing well at all. It isn't like Rob Zombie is Oliver Stone. His movies has done less than $30 million in the US and the Halloween franchise is a decent money maker. It will make $30 million, if even that.

 

It's facing no competition and has the Halloween name. It will do a huge opening weekend

[The Niggardly King 0]

Evan Almighty is really going to be a bomb... it has this ridiculously amount of money put into it, and it's a sequel to a movie that starred Jim Carrey.... but this time he's not in it. This has bomb stamped all over it with just the amount of money they put into it, but adding the fact that Carrey ain't coming back... I'm sorry but it's even more bomb worthy now

[Craig Th 0]

I can't see Halloween doing well at all. It isn't like Rob Zombie is Oliver Stone. His movies has done less than $30 million in the US and the Halloween franchise is a decent money maker. It will make $30 million, if even that.

 

It's facing no competition and has the Halloween name. It will do a huge opening weekend

Whatever I say, you go against it.

 

No more than $30 million.

[bob_barron 0]

Because you're wrong.

 

Look at all the horror remakes that made 30 mil +.

 

Why can't Halloween?

[cabbageboy 0]

I don't get why someone couldn't have waited until June to come out with their blockbuster. Spidey coming out next week is fine since right now there's a pretty bleh crop of movies out, so it won't be taking money from another movie. And I can see POTC coming out over Memorial Day since that's a massive time for movies. But why is Shrek 3 coming out in between? It's sandwiched between those two and while Spidey might tail off a bit to not hurt Shrek so much at the opening, the next week POTC is going to kill Shrek dead.

 

Oh and as far as Transformers goes, it comes out a week before Harry Potter so it better make its money while it can.

[ChrisMWaters 0]

I have to say this...

 

At least among where I work, most of my friends are looking forward to the Transformers movies.

 

And yes, they were G1 fans.

[Craig Th 0]

Because you're wrong.

 

Look at all the horror remakes that made 30 mil +.

 

Why can't Halloween?

I just don't see it doing that great. Zombie's films haven't done that well and the franchise has been run to the ground enough.

 

I should raise it to $45 million because $30 is low.

[slabinskia 0]

1.Spiderman 3-$375

2.Shrek 3-$325

3.Pirates 3-$300

4.Harry Potter-$250

5.Bourne Ultimatum-$215

 

That's my take.Despite Pirates being released for Memorial Day weekend I think it will suffer from the last one being released less than a year ago. The same thing happened with the matrix series. I still think Pirates will bring in $300 mil but I just don't think there is enough time between movies.

[UseTheSledgehammerUh 0]

You forgot that stupid-ass movie they showed before Spider-Man 3 with the surfing penguin. PENGUINS=MONEY. TALKING PENGUINS=LOTSA MONEY.

[UseTheSledgehammerUh 0]

"the Halloween name"

 

Is worthless.

 

The last memory of Halloween today's generation has is Busta Rhymes going ninja on the "big scary killer" and uttering "TRICK OR TREAT, MOTHAFUCKA!" Who the hell wants to see a Halloween movie given that there's like 9 sequels and none of them are any GOOD?!?

 

It even had the pitcher from "Rookie of the Year" as a horny teenager and it bombed horribly.

[cd213 0]

"the Halloween name"

 

Is worthless.

 

The last memory of Halloween today's generation has is Busta Rhymes going ninja on the "big scary killer" and uttering "TRICK OR TREAT, MOTHAFUCKA!" Who the hell wants to see a Halloween movie given that there's like 9 sequels and none of them are any GOOD?!?

 

It even had the pitcher from "Rookie of the Year" as a horny teenager and it bombed horribly.

 

It will do well for a couple of reasons:

1) It is a remake and rated R horror reakes have done well recently (see Texas Chainsaw Massacre, The Hills Have Eyes and Dawn of the Dead).

2) It is a rated R horror film and those have done well (see Hostel, The Saw series).

3) It is Rob Zombie directed and his films have done pretty well, The Devil's Rejects did better than House of 1000 Corpses. Plus he has a built in audience that will see anything he does.

[Black Lushus 0]

1.Spiderman 3-$375

2.Shrek 3-$325

3.Pirates 3-$300

4.Harry Potter-$250

5.Bourne Ultimatum-$215

 

That's my take.Despite Pirates being released for Memorial Day weekend I think it will suffer from the last one being released less than a year ago. The same thing happened with the matrix series. I still think Pirates will bring in $300 mil but I just don't think there is enough time between movies.

 

I don't think Bourne Ultimatum will do THAT well...if anything, Transformers will be in that 5 spot.

 

I pretty sure Matrix Revolutions didn't do well because lots of people hated Reloaded, not so much because of the timing of release...

[Gert T 0]

After seeing the trailer for Rush Hour 3, I am not so sure it will be a huge money maker, not a lot of laughs in a 2 minute span is not a good sign.

[UseTheSledgehammerUh 0]

Shrek 3 SUCKED. Just so unoriginal and boring. Not enough donkey. Too much Arthur. Lame villains. Boring.

 

Loved Shrek 1 and 2.

[foleyfanforever88 0]

Shrek 3 SUCKED. Just so unoriginal and boring. Not enough donkey. Too much Arthur. Lame villains. Boring.

 

Loved Shrek 1 and 2.

 

I loved Shrek 2, thought Shrek 1 was okay, and was really disappointed by Shrek 3. Worst one by far.

[JohnnyBlaze 0]

After seeing the trailer for Rush Hour 3, I am not so sure it will be a huge money maker, not a lot of laughs in a 2 minute span is not a good sign.

 

More rehashed jokes. Always a winner. I'm sure it will still make a decent amount, but the trailer didn't do it any favors.

[bob_barron 0]

Mole, either update this or unpin it.

[Craig Th 0]

How bout you worry about yourself.

[bob_barron 0]

What's the point of having this pinned if you haven't updated since before Pirates comes out?