Spring Training 2008

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Why do they think the Mariners would be last? Don't they have Bedard in addition to Felix?

 

 

They are expected to have the worst offense in the AL and it's not particularly close (bad lineup + pitcher's park). While their RA looks good due to quality pitching, it's not enough to make up the troubles of a horrific team OBP and poor slugging.

[HarleyQuinn 0]

Some "from the dead" revival news... credit Rotoworld.

 

- Washington Nationals signed immortal 2B Bret Boone to a minor league contract.

 

- New first base and and running coach Roberto Kelly said Sunday that he'll push the Giants to run more often this season.

[Guest Michael Myers Resplendent]

The numbers for the Cubs were not too encouraging, from what I heard. Zambrano, Lilly, and Hill were all predicted to be just one game +/- .500 with unremarkable ERAs. Probably a regression to the mean after last year in which the wind blew in at Wrigley some 80% of the time, but even then, they weren't that good. The fact that the rotation is going to be rounded out by Sean Marshall, Jason Marquis, or Ryan Dempster is a major cause for concern. At least the bullpen is solid, but they're not going to be solid for long unless Marshall can finally step up to the plate (or pitcher's rubber, as the case may be) and make it into the 7th or even 6th inning for once in his goddamn season.

 

Hitting should be okay: Soriano will bat leadoff because he's the real life Pedro Cerrano, Lee should hit for average but his power is lost and gone forever, and I expect Geovany Soto to play a big role because if he doesn't then our catcher is Hank White and we is fuuucked. Ryan Theriot isn't a long-term solution, I fear. The NSBB.com message board people have turned on him like a pack of rabid wolves because his VORP and Avg+ and shit is too low, which I can understand, but the puzzle is that they want him to be replaced by Ronny Cedeno, who has proven himself to be totally fucking baseball retarded. Maybe sabermetrics aren't perfect after all.

 

- New first base and and running coach Roberto Kelly said Sunday that he'll push the Giants to run more often this season.

The average age of the Giants is back under 45, right? Might not be the worst approach. I bet The Fire & The Passion could steal a few bases. He'd probably slide headfirst and bust his face open in the process, but that's why he is what he is.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Hitting should be okay: Soriano will bat leadoff because he's the real life Pedro Cerrano, Lee should hit for average but his power is lost and gone forever, and I expect Geovany Soto to play a big role because if he doesn't then our catcher is Hank White and we is fuuucked. Ryan Theriot isn't a long-term solution, I fear. The NSBB.com message board people have turned on him like a pack of rabid wolves because his VORP and Avg+ and shit is too low, which I can understand, but the puzzle is that they want him to be replaced by Ronny Cedeno, who has proven himself to be totally fucking baseball retarded. Maybe sabermetrics aren't perfect after all.

 

Theriot got a lot of credit for his 2006 season, where he had a hot streak. That was a small sample though, and 2007 is more indicative of his true quality. Meanwhile, Ronny Cedeno hit .359 in the PCL last year, third among hitters with a minimum of 150 plate appearances. Cedeno was just 23 in 2006, and likely overmatched at the plate. He has shown ability and probably at least deserves a second opportunity.

[Guest Michael Myers Resplendent]

We've been looking at him for three years, and he just keeps making glaring fundamental errors. Soriano is already our designated "getting by with a single-digit baseball IQ" guy, and I don't think we can afford a second. I don't think Lou is fond of Cedeno. We know he's not fond of Pie.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Anyone interested in the TSM Fantasy League please PM me. I have 12 entrants, leaving 8 openings. Entry decided largely based on seniority, but doesn't hurt to throw your name in.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

We've been looking at him for three years, and he just keeps making glaring fundamental errors. Soriano is already our designated "getting by with a single-digit baseball IQ" guy, and I don't think we can afford a second. I don't think Lou is fond of Cedeno. We know he's not fond of Pie.

I'd give the benefit of a doubt to a young player, but I can see bypassing him. It's kind of amusing since Eric Patterson is in the doghouse as well.

[TheDevilAndGodAreRagingInsideMe 0]

Baseball Prospectus released the first edition of their projected standings today ........ and the Rays having an outside shot at a playoff berth.

 

LOLs

[CanadianChris 0]

That's insane. Tampa would have to have absolutely everything go right for them, and then hope for a stunning collapse by the Yankees, to even finish second in the division, and that's still no guarantee of a playoff spot with the Indians and Tigers in the Central.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Baseball Prospectus released the first edition of their projected standings today ........ and the Rays having an outside shot at a playoff berth.

 

LOLs

 

 

Everyone is laughing now, but watch the 2008 Rays win 80+ games. Referring to Baseball America's Jim Callis "We've seen a few teams with this much young talent at the major league level and a few with this much at the minor league level, but never have we seen one with this much at both." They're a wild card, no doubt, but as a Red Sox fan they scare the shit out of me.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

The numbers for the Cubs were not too encouraging, from what I heard. Zambrano, Lilly, and Hill were all predicted to be just one game +/- .500 with unremarkable ERAs. Probably a regression to the mean after last year in which the wind blew in at Wrigley some 80% of the time, but even then, they weren't that good. The fact that the rotation is going to be rounded out by Sean Marshall, Jason Marquis, or Ryan Dempster is a major cause for concern. At least the bullpen is solid, but they're not going to be solid for long unless Marshall can finally step up to the plate (or pitcher's rubber, as the case may be) and make it into the 7th or even 6th inning for once in his goddamn season.

 

Actually, the pitching looks like a strength for the Cubs with their current projections. Citing won/loss from PECOTA is almost useless because there is so much regression on the margins that just about every starting pitcher ends up with 10-15 wins. Zambrano, Lilly and Hill are all projected with above average ERAs, 180+ innings and solid K/BB ratios. If Lieber and Marshall win out, that's a strong 1-5 unit.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Jeremy Brown, the fat catcher from Moneyball, is hanging up the cleats.

 

Kind of interesting how his career developed. He hit very well in the minors and had a good enough upside as a hitter to be an everyday major leaguer. However, he could never really handle the catcher position defensively, mostly because he was way too fat. The stat guys were right about the ability, but the scouts correctly figured out that the body wouldn't play.

 

Interestingly enough, this was a problem with many of the Moneyball-era drafts from the A's and it's a big reason why they took the rebuilding process so seriously this offseason. The stats guys knew who could hit, but they weren't correctly balancing with scouting to find the right players. In the end, however, I don't think Brown's career tells us much about the A's or their organization circa Moneyball vis a vis the rest of the baseball.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

At least Jeremy can always claim he was a .300 hitter in the majors.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

On a side note, it's somewhat fitting that the A's signed Matt LeCroy on the same day that Brown retired. LeCroy is worse defensively than Brown, his offensive skills are sapped and he is easily the worst baserunner in organized baseball. He is what Jeremy Brown could've become. Brown hit .268/.367/.439 in his minor league career. He could've stuck around in AAA if he desired.

[Bored 0]

For what's it worth the rumor is that Brown retired due to family reasons and that the door is open for him to comeback down the road. I still think he had a shot at being serviceable back up catcher.

 

LeCroy is toast, just there to be a warm body in the Spring and at Triple-A Sacramento.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Caught this earlier today and thought it was interesting. Jon Heyman from SI.com lists the ten best general managers in baseball.

 

1. Theo Epstein

2. Billy Beane

3. Dave Dombrowski

4. Mark Shapiro

5. Brian Cashman

6. Pat Gillick

7. Josh Byrnes

8. Omar Minaya

9. Dan O'Dowd

10T. Kenny Williams

10T. Kevin Towers

 

It's an okay list with nothing too controversial. I'd have Epstein, Towers, Shapiro and Dombrowski in some order as my top four, with Cashman, Beane, Byrnes and Melvin right behind them. I don't necessarily agree with O'Dowd, Williams or Minaya being in the top 10.

 

Thoughts?

[HarleyQuinn 0]

For what's it worth the rumor is that Brown retired due to family reasons and that the door is open for him to comeback down the road. I still think he had a shot at being serviceable back up catcher.

 

LeCroy is toast, just there to be a warm body in the Spring and at Triple-A Sacramento.

 

What's interesting is that LeCroy hit .239/.350/.373 in 2006 in his 67 AB with Washington (11 BB vs. 17 K). He had a line of .260/.354/.444 in 2005 and although he was woeful (.194/.281/.279 in 247 AB) in AAA last year, he could be a serviceable backup catcher as you said Bored. He still walked at a 10.5% rate in AAA.

 

I like the signing overall considering the risk/reward. If he can get back to even the .330-.350 range in OBP and boost his SLG up a little, he could be a decent steal for the year.

[Guest Michael Myers Resplendent]

Caught this earlier today and thought it was interesting. Jon Heyman from SI.com lists the ten best general managers in baseball.

 

1. Theo Epstein

2. Billy Beane

3. Dave Dombrowski

4. Mark Shapiro

5. Brian Cashman

6. Pat Gillick

7. Josh Byrnes

8. Omar Minaya

9. Dan O'Dowd

10T. Kenny Williams

10T. Kevin Towers

 

It's an okay list with nothing too controversial. I'd have Epstein, Towers, Shapiro and Dombrowski in some order as my top four, with Cashman, Beane, Byrnes and Melvin right behind them. I don't necessarily agree with O'Dowd, Williams or Minaya being in the top 10.

 

Thoughts?

Minaya is a checkbook general manager. The rest of it is okaWAIT WHO THE FUCK IS TIED AT 10 DID YOU PUT THAT IN AS A JOKE

[Brett Favre 0]

What's wrong with Kevin Towers?

[Bruiser Chong 0]

Lecroy will always be remembered by me as the dude who made Frank Robinson cry.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Caught this earlier today and thought it was interesting. Jon Heyman from SI.com lists the ten best general managers in baseball.

 

1. Theo Epstein

2. Billy Beane

3. Dave Dombrowski

4. Mark Shapiro

5. Brian Cashman

6. Pat Gillick

7. Josh Byrnes

8. Omar Minaya

9. Dan O'Dowd

10T. Kenny Williams

10T. Kevin Towers

 

It's an okay list with nothing too controversial. I'd have Epstein, Towers, Shapiro and Dombrowski in some order as my top four, with Cashman, Beane, Byrnes and Melvin right behind them. I don't necessarily agree with O'Dowd, Williams or Minaya being in the top 10.

 

Thoughts?

Minaya is a checkbook general manager. The rest of it is okaWAIT WHO THE FUCK IS TIED AT 10 DID YOU PUT THAT IN AS A JOKE

 

Nope, not my idea of a joke. The guy did win a World Series... I'd have him in my bottom 5 no doubt, but that sort of thing tends to make you bulletproof when it comes to ranking GMs. I mean, if you're lining up Williams and say, Jon Daniels, what's going to stand out on their respective resumes?

[USC Wuz Robbed! 0]

Exactly. Kenny Williams will ride on that World Series for a few more years before people realize he's not very good. Not that some people don't already realize that, but just saying.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

What's interesting is that LeCroy hit .239/.350/.373 in 2006 in his 67 AB with Washington (11 BB vs. 17 K). He had a line of .260/.354/.444 in 2005 and although he was woeful (.194/.281/.279 in 247 AB) in AAA last year, he could be a serviceable backup catcher as you said Bored. He still walked at a 10.5% rate in AAA.

 

I like the signing overall considering the risk/reward. If he can get back to even the .330-.350 range in OBP and boost his SLG up a little, he could be a decent steal for the year.

 

Note the batting averages for LeCroy though, consistently poor. His walk rates are good, the problem is that he literally lacks the physical ability to contribute in any other fashion. His low average isn't bad luck, it's that he can't run at any better than a slow jog. And he passed the age of 30. His body type will not age well, and he can't weather the process.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Exactly. Kenny Williams will ride on that World Series for a few more years before people realize he's not very good. Not that some people don't already realize that, but just saying.

 

 

Kenny Williams also has a way of making himself look worse just by the sheer number of deals that he does. You start to get a reputation based on relative success of the most recent transactions. A good number of the deals he engineers are ones that work in the present at the cost of the future. In the spring of 2006, Williams looks good (wins the World Series and acquires Thome, Vazquez), but those kind of deals come back to haunt you later on.

 

On the flip side, look at the guy at number one: Theo Epstein. There were a large contingent of people who thought he was one of the worst heading into last season. According to the print media and fan reaction, the 2004 team was largely in place when he got there and most of the subsequent deals he engineered were failures.

 

It's hard to examine the larger picture in place, which makes lists like these very difficult.

[USC Wuz Robbed! 0]

To my credit I hated the Thome and Vasquez trades. Al had to talk me off the ledge for that, and look what happens.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

To my credit I hated the Thome and Vasquez trades. Al had to talk me off the ledge for that, and look what happens.

 

 

I think that the Thome deal was okay, if unnecessary. It was the Vazquez trade that hurt them the most. Think about how much better this team would look with Chris Young roaming centerfield over Brian Anderson, Jerry Owens or Nick Swisher. That's been a black hole for them ever since that trade.

[Smartly Pretty 0]

Baseball Prospectus released the first edition of their projected standings today ........ and the Rays having an outside shot at a playoff berth.

 

LOLs

 

 

Everyone is laughing now, but watch the 2008 Rays win 80+ games. Referring to Baseball America's Jim Callis "We've seen a few teams with this much young talent at the major league level and a few with this much at the minor league level, but never have we seen one with this much at both." They're a wild card, no doubt, but as a Red Sox fan they scare the shit out of me.

 

I think they'll come ridiculously close to making the playoffs. Cliff Floyd will be DHing so maybe that'll preserve him a little bit and he can hit better than he did last year, and if Baldelli can stay healthy their offense should be pretty good, and a rotation lead by Kazmir, Sheilds and Garza, they could DEFINITELY win the wild card.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

I think they'll come ridiculously close to making the playoffs. Cliff Floyd will be DHing so maybe that'll preserve him a little bit and he can hit better than he did last year, and if Baldelli can stay healthy their offense should be pretty good, and a rotation lead by Kazmir, Sheilds and Garza, they could DEFINITELY win the wild card.

 

The issue will ultimately be what they do with their 4th and 5th starters and the middle relief. A few of their everyday players need to stay healthy and continue to develop as well. But with the right mix of players, this team will be in meaningful games in September.

 

The ultimate wild card is how their top prospects contribue this year. Evan Longoria, David Price and Reid Brignac could all offer something this year depending on how they come along and where the team feels that it is in the pecking order of the AL East. Hell, there is still a chance that Guzman, Aybar, Sonnastine and E. Jackson realize some of their untapped potential.

 

In the Questions thread I compared this team to the 1991 Braves, which I still feel is a very apt comparison.

[TheDevilAndGodAreRagingInsideMe 0]

TAMPA BAY DEVIL RAYS.

 

NO.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

TAMPA BAY DEVIL RAYS.

 

NO.

 

Is there a reason you feel that the Rays won't be competitive this year or are you sticking with the "Dude, they suck" routine.