The NFL Preseason Thread.

[Guest Vitamin X]

The last time Dallas played in Green Bay, we stomped the shit out of them, 45-17. And that wasn't even a particularly good year for Green Bay, either. (I believe that was 1998)

 

I think Green Bay will drop one to Chicago, beat Dallas and Seattle, and lose to Jacksonville. Otherwise, my picks line up exactly with Kotz's, including the 12-4 record, although I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple of those go the other way, especially the game with Indy and Dallas, but the fact that both of those are at home on the grass and those two teams are strongly tilted towards offense, I see the ball bouncing Green Bay's way there. The only thing is that Dallas can beat you with a strong running game too, so that's what worries me there.

[JJ Johnson 0]

Dallas wins at least 11 games and goes out of the playoffs ASAP due to the Third Annual Tony Romo Crunch Time Sucktacular.

[KingPK 0]

...to win 11-12 games but I'm not ignoring the fact that with bad breaks, they could get down to 10-6 or 9-7 (If teams like the Jets and Bills explode to 8-8+ records).

 

Also: Buffalo went 7-9 (252 vs. 354) and the Jets went 4-12 (268 vs. 355). With a few breaks, the Jets could have been at 6-10 or 7-9 as well. I think the Pats will be surprised by a team or two in the AFC East and lose those games.

 

Only taking into account the divsion here, New England completely demolished all three divsion foes in nearly every game last year (the closest was a 20-10 victory against the Jets in Week 15), including beating the Bills by a combined 94-17. The Jets have improved, but I still think the Bills and Dolphins are fairly comfortable wins.

[HarleyQuinn 0]

...to win 11-12 games but I'm not ignoring the fact that with bad breaks, they could get down to 10-6 or 9-7 (If teams like the Jets and Bills explode to 8-8+ records).

 

Also: Buffalo went 7-9 (252 vs. 354) and the Jets went 4-12 (268 vs. 355). With a few breaks, the Jets could have been at 6-10 or 7-9 as well. I think the Pats will be surprised by a team or two in the AFC East and lose those games.

 

Only taking into account the divsion here, New England completely demolished all three divsion foes in nearly every game last year (the closest was a 20-10 victory against the Jets in Week 15), including beating the Bills by a combined 94-17. The Jets have improved, but I still think the Bills and Dolphins are fairly comfortable wins.

 

Largely agreed although if the Patriots mirror their 2006 season (385 PF vs. 237 PA), they could have a few tough games. That year they beat Buffalo 19-17, the Jets 24-17, Miami 20-10, Buffalo again 28-6, lost to the Jets 17-14, and lost to Miami 21-0. They also went 12-4 that season too (with a better defense than last year PA wise).

 

I'm not so much concerned with the idea that New England will lose 2-3 games to AFC East opponents but more concerned with games being battles similar to the above scores. If New England lets Miami or the Jets stay in the game (i.e. down by a FG or a TD) then there could be a surprise or two in the final score.

 

I guess I'm weighing the idea that they score 30+ easy vs. the idea that just two years ago they were winning games by a TD or less. See the win over the Jets (20-10) and the 28-7 win over a 1-15 Dolphins team that was in complete disarray last season (Starting Cleo Lemon and using Lorenzo Booker/Jesse Chatman as their tandem RB).

[Guest Vitamin X]

Is 28-7 not running up the score enough for you? Jesus, freakin' Pats fans...

 

I will agree with you on the fact that they don't look as strong on defense as they did before, however, but the Pats' 2006 season, to my recollection, was a bit of an underachieving team. Those scores you outlined there aren't atypical of the Belichick era, New England is built to score efficiently, then tear a team apart when playing defense and grind them down with clock management. It was only since they acquired Randy Moss that the team philosophy completely changed to becoming the 98 Vikings (right down to choking in a big game they should've won and everything!)

[HarleyQuinn 0]

Is 28-7 not running up the score enough for you? Jesus, freakin' Pats fans...

 

Well... Miami at the time was 1-14 and the Pats had 400 yards of total offense. Considering they won the first game 49-28, it's a little surprising to see they didn't pour it on. Although of note, the first Miami game did have Ronnie Brown (17-76 with 5-33).

 

The fact you mentioned the un-atypical scoring last year is partly why I'm concerned for the upcoming year. When the defense falters at all, they struggle to put up enough offense to out score the opposition by a big enough margin thus keeping the opponents in the game until the very end.

 

2007

@ Indianapolis: 24-20 Win (Pats score 14 in 4th after being down 13-10 entering the quarter)

vs. Philadelphia: 31-28 (Tied at 28 entering the 4th)

@ Baltimore: 27-24 (Pats score 10 in 4th after being tied at 17 entering the quarter)

vs. New York Jets: 20-10 (Only up 17-7 at the half. Put up only 3 points after...in the 4th quarter. Jets score a TD at all in the 3rd and it's 17-14)

@ New York Giants: 38-35 (Down 28-23 entering 4th quarter. Pats score 15 points to the Giants' 7)

 

Playoffs

vs. San Diego: 21-12 (Only up 14-12 entering the 4th quarter)

vs. New York Giants: 14-17 (Score to go ahead in 4th quarter. Lose game on final drive)

 

All of the above games (7) came after Week 9. That's with the offense being the "Vikings '98" reborn too! IMO, there's no way that the Patriots can storm the league and put up the offensive firepower they did last year so that means that they'll be in a lot more games like the above where they have to: Score in the 4th quarter and shut down through defense or come back in the 4th quarter to win.

 

That's why a lot of these people acting like a 13-3 or 14-2 record wouldn't be crazy is surprising to me. The Patriots are the team to beat but not only can they be beaten... a lot of their games come down to the final quarter and given some of the opponents this season, I don't think they'll be able to pull out all of these close games like they did last year.

 

Sorry for sidetracking this into Pats Talk Central... just enjoy looking at the angles.

[Precious Roy 0]

One thing I haven't heard a lot about with the Pats is the loss of Donte Stallworth. His importance to their passing attack was kind of overlooked last year, he was really great as the third wideout mixing and matching in different formations. He wasn't a deep threat or a red zone target and didn't put up the crazy stats like Moss and Welker, but he had 46 catches, 27 of them for first downs, 700 yards, was consistent week to week, and he made things easier for the other wideouts. I'm not going to just assume that they can just plug Gaffney in and get the same results, and then there's also the fact that Gaffney was pretty productive himself as the fourth receiver last year and we've got the unproven Chad Jackson filling that role.

 

Also factor in how hard it is to do what the Patriots offense did last season on a year to year basis, or even for a whole season as they came out on fire in the first half and had everyone on their heels, then the rest of the league started to adjust and play them tougher as the season went on. I'm definitely expecting some regression from the Patriots passing game.

 

I do think the running game will be better this year with the addition of Lamont Jordan to compliment Laurence Maroney. Maroney is good but he hasn't shown he can carry a full workload yet, and I think Jordan can be much better than he showed in Oakland. They've still got Kevin Faulk too, and Sammy Morris ran well before he got hurt last year. The running game should hopefully offset any dropoff in the passing game and maybe help keep the defense fresher as well.

 

Anyway, I expect the Pats to win the AFC East with no less than 11 and no more than 13 wins

[USC Wuz Robbed! 0]

Yeah I don't even see the Patriots locking up one of the top two seeds in the AFC. I think those are going to go to Indy and San Diego (in either order). Not that it matters much.

[sfaJack 0]

Dallas wins at least 11 games and goes out of the playoffs ASAP due to the Third Annual Tony Romo Crunch Time Sucktacular.

Yeah, last year's loss to the Giants was all on Romo. Yep. It's all his fault!

 

[Cuban Linx 0]

I expect the Titans to return to the playoffs, even in the toughest division with a questionable quarterback and basically no passing game, though Alge Crumpler will help. Running the ball all day and pounding teams with their defense worked last year and during/following their Superbowl run, with both looking likely to remain among the best in the NFL i see no reason it shouldn't work again.

 

While the division they play in is a buzzsaw their out of division schedule looks quite favorable. They should be able to beat most out of the Bengals, Vikings, Ravens, Chiefs, Bears, Jets and Lions, and the three toughest non-division teams they face (Browns, Steelers, Packers) they all face at home. A 10-6 record and a wild card spot looks well within reach, possibly more if Vince Young continues to develop and they find a receiver or two worth a damn.

[Lt. Al Giardello 0]

Yeah I don't even see the Patriots locking up one of the top two seeds in the AFC. I think those are going to go to Indy and San Diego (in either order). Not that it matters much.

 

I don't know how you can be so confident in San Diego locking a top two seed, with Merriman's injury and LT coming off knee surgey.

[Guest Vitamin X]

I really don't know much of anything about the Titans, other than they have Vince Young and now Alge Crumpler so they could be early 2000 Philadelphia Eagles redux, right? I hear they have a good defense, but don't know about them either other than Kyle Vandenbosch and Keith Bulluck.

 

.. I suppose I should know more after tomorrow though, right? Oh, and

Awkwaaaaaaard.

[Kinetic 0]

The Titans are possibly the dullest team in the league to watch. For as great as he was in college, Vince Young is kind of just a guy at this level. He doesn't seem to be progressing at all, either.

 

The Titans have a good defense and solid running game, though. I'd say 8-8 for them.

[HarleyQuinn 0]

The Titans are the NFL equivalent of say the mid 90's Penn State college teams. Very good run game, good to great defense, average passing when called upon, and generally boring to watch.

 

I will say that Chris Johnson is exciting to watch because the guy is just so fast (think watching Deion Sanders) and I think a tandem of LenDale White getting 20 carries to wear down the D while CJ gets 10-15 carries to burn people will result in a fair amount of victories. The big question is whether we see rookie Vince Young or the 9 TD vs. 17 INT Vince Young.

 

Projection: 9-7 with an upside of 11-5 if Vince limits his mistakes and gets a 2:1 TD to INT ratio.

[Lt. Al Giardello 0]

The Titans are the NFL equivalent of say the mid 90's Penn State college teams. Very good run game, good to great defense, average passing when called upon, and generally boring to watch.

 

I will say that Chris Johnson is exciting to watch because the guy is just so fast (think watching Deion Sanders) and I think a tandem of LenDale White getting 20 carries to wear down the D while CJ gets 10-15 carries to burn people will result in a fair amount of victories. The big question is whether we see rookie Vince Young or the 9 TD vs. 17 INT Vince Young.

 

Projection: 9-7 with an upside of 11-5 if Vince limits his mistakes and gets a 2:1 TD to INT ratio.

 

You can't place all the blame on VY... The Titans recieving core is a absolute crap. Crumpler, the TE will likely be his main recieving option, so he will help. But still there is no excuse for the Titans mangemenet to put together a horrible WR core like the one they have now!

[USC Wuz Robbed! 0]

Yeah I don't even see the Patriots locking up one of the top two seeds in the AFC. I think those are going to go to Indy and San Diego (in either order). Not that it matters much.

 

I don't know how you can be so confident in San Diego locking a top two seed, with Merriman's injury and LT coming off knee surgey.

 

Because... Merriman isn't the be-all, end-all defender for the Chargers. He's a good leader for them and his production will be missed, but this IS the most talented team in the entire league. You're still going to have Shaun Phillips who is an unheralded workhorse LB for them, you're still going to have Antonio Cromartie to man the secondary, you got the new first round pick corner, Antoine Cason, who looked impressive in the preseason, and you have Luis Castillo to disrupt the offensive lines.

 

On offense, the receivers are getting better and better, Vincent Jackson might be a real threat now. I don't think LT was going to play the biggest part of the offense this year after what happened last year.

 

Come on now. The Chargers are still definitely going to kick ass in the league. They won't be embarrassing teams like the Patriots like you (edit: I now realize you're EHME, not KOAB, so disregard this) predicted last year in Week 2, but they'll get off to a fast start and then we'll see.

[MFer 0]

Merriman's gonna skip surgery and play this season...good luck with that.

[USC Wuz Robbed! 0]

Merriman's gonna skip surgery and play this season...good luck with that.

 

I'm not going to sit here and say it's a good idea what he is doing, but I will mention he did pretty much play the whole playoffs with the same injuries. So it's not like he isn't a proven player with that bum knee.

[Mike wanna be 0]

The Titans are the NFL equivalent of say the mid 90's Penn State college teams. Very good run game, good to great defense, average passing when called upon, and generally boring to watch.

 

I will say that Chris Johnson is exciting to watch because the guy is just so fast (think watching Deion Sanders) and I think a tandem of LenDale White getting 20 carries to wear down the D while CJ gets 10-15 carries to burn people will result in a fair amount of victories. The big question is whether we see rookie Vince Young or the 9 TD vs. 17 INT Vince Young.

 

Projection: 9-7 with an upside of 11-5 if Vince limits his mistakes and gets a 2:1 TD to INT ratio.

 

You can't place all the blame on VY... The Titans recieving core is a absolute crap. Crumpler, the TE will likely be his main recieving option, so he will help. But still there is no excuse for the Titans mangemenet to put together a horrible WR core like the one they have now!

The Titans are fucking idiots. They won't get him any receiving targets because they apparently don't think he's a good enough passer to complete any passes to them anyway.

[AlwaysPissedOff 0]

Jacksonville, Jacksonville, Jacksonville...

 

The schedule is going to be a huge bitch starting out with all three divisional opponents, rapidly improving Bills and Broncos teams, and an out-for-revenge Steelers team before the bye. I can see probably 2 or 3 losses in that stretch. After the bye, the schedule gets a bit easier with Cleveland/Detroit/Cincy before getting to Tennessee/Minnesota/Houston, which are all winnable games. Chicago shouldn't be that much of a bother, but it'd be stupid to underestimate them with that defense even if the Bear offense stinks out loud. Green Bay and Indy will largely depend on playoff seeding unless the Jags just horrifically shit the bed this season, same goes with the season-ending Baltimore game, though the Jags should win that once since the Ravens just don't look to be any good anytime soon.

 

My only problem with the Jags offense is the garbage the front office has surrounded Garrard with at WR. An injured, probably unmotivated Jerry Porter, colossal busts Troy Williamson/Reggie Williams/Matt Jones, Dennis "Stone Hands" Northcutt, and waste of space Marcedes Lewis at TE. Hopefully, Mike Walker can develop into a reliable receiver so that some of this deadweight can be cut and the Jags really spend the offense and the draft getting quality talent at the position. RB is solid with Fred Taylor and MJD leading the way(though Maurice is a bit banged up at the moment).

 

On the defensive side, while Marcus Stroud was a tremendous player for the Jags, the fact remains that he was horribly injury-prone the last couple of years and with Landri and Meier stepping up in his place last year, I can see why the Jags decided to part with Stroud. Once Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves get used to the NFL, the Jags' pass rush will be scary as shit. For right now, though, they'll be situational rushers til Harvey's ready to be an every down DE and possibly shove Paul Spicer out the door. The LB corps will be damn good as long as Mike Peterson stays healthy and Darryl Smith continues to play at the high level he's been since he became a starter. Cornerback could be a problem as the Jags really only have one proven guy in Rasheen Mathis with SD cast-off Drayton Florence manning the RCB with Brian Williams being moved to safety. Look for USF product Trae Williams to possibly push Florence for the starting job because the guy has looked really good in the pre-season when given the chance. Hopefully, Gerald Sensabaugh won't mess his shoulder up again 2 games in because he and Reggie Nelson could be a fantastic safety tandem with Brian Williams in the mix.

 

With the way the schedule is set-up, I can see Jacksonville in the 11-5/12-4 range like last year with the swing games being Pitt/GB/Minnesota and dropping two games in the division(Indy and probably Houston).

[naiwf 0]

Pacman Jones has been reinstated by the commish.

[Kinetic 0]

Pacman Jones has been reinstated by the commish.

 

Sweet. Tonght's forecast for all Dallas/Fort Worth area titty bars: a 90% chance of rain.

 

Especially this one.

[The Ghost of bps21 0]

He's a former tag team champion you know.

[Kinetic 0]

Pffft, yeah, in TNA. Whatever that is.

[The Ghost of bps21 0]

The man was UNDEFEATED. Show some respect!

[alfdogg 0]

The injury woes continue for the Colts...Jeff Saturday is going to miss at least six weeks due to a damaged MCL, according to ESPN.

[Smartly Pretty 0]

http://www.comcast.net/articles/sports-nfl...uars-Northcutt/

 

It seems like lately the Jaguars are promoting the idea that Jacksonville is a dangerous place to live (granted this incident didn't take place in jacksonville)

[Matt Young 0]

Glad to see that VX and Kotz, both Packers fans and both likely more knowledgeable in regards to football minutia than am I, share my optimism. And yes, I stand by my declaration about the Patriots. Remember the important caveat- my claim is based on their record if they have no major injuries. If Brady is hurt, all bets are off.

 

Also, Shawn Merriman is an idiot.

[MFer 0]

Another thing about Merriman, I don't understand why he didn't just have the surgery right after the Chargers' season ended.

[Kinetic 0]

Shawne Merriman is an idiot. The short-term gain is so dwarfed by the potential long-term ramifications that I can't even believe that he's considering playing this year. It's not even just his football career; one awkward hit on that knee could severely impact the quality of his life after football, which could begin as soon as 2009.

 

I'm starting to get the feeling that the Chargers are going to be somewhat less than advertised this season. Have you seen the way Rivers has been hobbling around in the preseason? Then again, there's no one in their division that could really challenge even a banged-up version of that team. Denver? Please.

 

10-6.