Let's predict 2009's won-lost records.

[Guest Czech please!]

PECOTA released theirs last week, so let's give this a try. Might be jumping the gun a little bit since a few of the big names are still unsigned, but maybe trying to guess where Manny lands adds another fun variable to the guessing. We'll revisit this at the end of the season and see how awful all my predictions were. Maybe we can make a contest out of it, give points for how many wins each person was off by, bonus points for hitting them on the nose, something like that. Extended musings optional.

 

N.L. WEST

Los Angeles: 94 - Still the most threatening team in the division.

San Francisco: 86 - big years from Lincecum and Cain, and they'll probably wind up with Manny.

Arizona: 80

Colorado: 72

San Diego: 55

 

N.L. CENTRAL

St. Louis: 89 - Khalil Greene will be a human vacuum at short for all the grounders served up by Dave Duncan's latest batch of smoke and mirrors.

Milwaukee: 83

Chicago: 77 - Ramirez and Soriano will likely miss about a month each as Lee's first base production continues to become even more insufficient. Miles offers less production and versatility than DeRosa. Marmol's due for a grievous injury from abuse.

Cincinnati: 74 - Still not much here.

Houston: 72

Pittsburgh: 60

 

N.L. EAST

New York: 101

Philadelphia: 92

Atlanta: 82

Florida: 80

Washington: 59

 

A.L. WEST

Texas: 88

Los Angeles: 85

Oakland: 74

Seattle: 70

 

A.L. CENTRAL

Minnesota: 86

Detroit: 85

Cleveland: 81

Kansas City: 74

Chicago: 71

 

A.L. EAST

New York: 103

Boston: 90

Tampa Bay: 86

Baltimore: 79

Toronto: 66

 

In-season managerial firings in order: Dusty Baker, Bob Geren, Cito Gaston "retires"

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

I think Arizona wins the NL West. The Dodgers? I missed the effort they made to improve their team. They lost their second baseman and ace starting pitcher. Greg Maddux is gone as well.

 

The Cubs, I'm not going over that one again. I'd be STUNNED if they finished below .500. I mean honestly.

 

I would also be really surprised if either New York team won 100+ games. Especially the Mets. I mean except for a couple relievers, they essentially have the same team.

[At Home 0]

Angels: a billion

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Czech's off by at least 20 wins on the Cubs. Quite a bit of optimism for the Yankees, Mets, and Dodgers as well (EDIT: I did not steal Al's thoughts). Only the Mets out of that group strike me as a team that will push more than 95 wins.

 

I'll have to do some thinking before I come up with my own list. It probably won't be that interest

[CanadianChris 0]

I would bet any amount of money that both the Cubs and Blue Jays go over Czech's total.

[Guest]

N.L. WEST

Los Angeles: 90. If Manny comes back, we're golden. If not, probably fucked, just like last year. This prediction would imply that I believe Manny will be back.

Arizona: 87

San Francisco: 80. Too soon.

Colorado: 74

San Diego: 59

 

N.L. CENTRAL

Chicago: 94

Milwaukee: 85

St. Louis: 83

Cincinnati: 76

Houston: 72

Pittsburgh: 65. This team will never be good again.

 

N.L. EAST

New York: 100

Philadelphia: 92

Florida: 85

Atlanta: 83

Washington: 67. Maybe more.

 

A.L. WEST

Los Angeles: 95

Oakland: 87

Texas: 82

Seattle: 58

 

A.L. CENTRAL

Cleveland: 88

Detroit: 86

Chicago: 83

Minnesota: 79

Kansas City: 73

 

 

A.L. EAST

New York: 108*

Boston: 90

Tampa Bay: 82

Toronto: 76

Baltimore: 71

 

Something like that.

 

Our second baseman provided nothing last season until Manny showed up. I'm really not too hurt about losing that guy.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

A.L. EAST

New York: 103

 

A.L. EAST

New York: 108

 

The hell?

 

It's one thing to predict the Yankees to win the division, but the expectation of going over 100 wins (and significantly in 909's case) is quite shocking. Rather than try to pick apart your guess, could you at least provide a quick synopsis of why you feel so strongly about that team? To me, they spent a lot of money for not much guaranteed success, but that could be the inner-Sox fan in me speaking out.

 

I've got them at 90-95 wins based on the projections I've seen. I'll tweak that over the next few days as I start analyzing the roster, but there is nothing on the surface that suggests they are definitively better than Boston or Tampa Bay.

[Guest Czech please!]

I have no thoughts regarding my high prediction for the Yankees. Just seems like it might happen. 108, though, that's crazy.

 

Someone should predict 81 for all 30 teams. They'd probably do better than I will.

[Guest]

Prediction is based upon players staying healthy. The additions they made were huge.

 

Giambi produced well last season, but not near the level of what Teixeira will bring to the table. Posada will be healthy, and should be a better player than what the Yankees had at catcher last season, even if in fact Posada is deteriorated. Wang's healthy, Matsui's healthy.

 

Defensively they still suck.

 

Why'd I choose 108?

 

A.) Czech already had the number I wanted to pick and I didn't want to seem like I was copying him.

 

B.) 108 is nice and round.

 

 

So put me down for 103.

[JaMarcus Russell's #1 Caucasian Fan 0]

NL West

 

Dodgers: 92 wins with Manny, 80 wins without. With Manny, the Dodgers have the best lineup in the division. Pitching is a big question mark this season.

Arizona: 85 wins

Giants: 79- Excellent pitching staff, but where does the offense come from, especially at AT&T park?

Rockies: 70 wins

Padres: 57 wins

 

NL Central

 

Cubs: 97 wins

Cardinals: 89 wins

Brewers: 82 wins

Astros: 78 wins

Reds: 71 wins

Pirates: 68

 

NL East

 

Mets: 98 wins

Phillies: 90 wins

Marlins: 87 wins

Braves: 80 wins

Nats: 75 wins

 

AL West

 

Angels: 89 wins.

A's: 85 wins

Rangers: 80 wins

Mariners: 60 wins

 

AL Central

 

Tigers: 91 wins

Twins: 87 wins

White Sox: 79 wins

Indians: 75 wins

Royals: 68 wins

 

AL East

 

Yankees: 100 wins

Red Sox: 95 wins

Rays: 86 wins

Orioles: 81 wins

Blues Jays: 75 wins

 

[Dandy 0]

Orioles - 160

 

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Orioles - 160

No Sunday games scheduled this year?

[Dandy 0]

They learned from their mistakes.

[At Home 0]

Orioles - 160

No Sunday games scheduled this year?

 

Nah, just not the games that they're scheduled to lose.

[Dandy 0]

NL West

Los Angeles: 86

San Francisco: 84

Arizona: 79

Colorado: 75

San Diego: 62

 

NL Central

Chicago: 94

Milwaukee: 88

Cincinnati: 84

St. Louis: 82

Houston: 68

Pittsburgh: 67

 

NL East

New York: 93

Philadelphia: 92

Atlanta: 87

Florida: 70

Washington: 58

 

AL West

Los Angeles: 91

Texas: 83

Oakland: 79

Seattle: 69

 

AL Central

Minnesota: 87

Cleveland: 83

Chicago: 79

Detroit: 71

Kansas City: 70

 

AL East

New York: 94

Boston: 88

Tampa Bay: 88

Baltimore: 74

Toronto: 71

 

Edit---Did anyone make sure the wins and losses added up to the correct totals? I did not, and I feel like I would be way off with my totals.

[The Ghost of bps21 0]

I'm suprised to see the Yankees winning the division in all these lists. I still say they're the third best team in that division.

[Guest]

Edit---Did anyone make sure the wins and losses added up to the correct totals? I did not, and I feel like I would be way off with my totals.

I thought about it, but that's way too much work for me.

[The Niggardly King 0]

AL East:

 

Boston - 92

Tampa - 87

Yankees - 75

Orioles

Toronto

 

AL Central:

 

Twins - 89

Tigers - 84

White Sox - 77

KC

Indians

 

AL West:

 

Angels - 94

Seattle - 79

Oakland

Texas

 

NL East:

 

Philly - 98

Braves - 82

Mets - 78

Florida

Nationals

 

NL Central:

 

Brewers - 87

Cardinals - 85

Cubs - 85

Pirates

Reds

Astros

 

NL West:

 

Rockies - 83

Dodgers - 83

Arizona - 72

Frisco

Diego

[treble 0]

I want to come here and say that everyone's underestimating the Jays (66 wins?), but I don't want them to completely bottom out and have everyone laugh at me at the end of the season.

[the max 0]

I think Oakland will win the west but I'm not feeling mathematical enough to figure out accurate win totals.

[King Kamala 0]

Eh, why the hell not? This is probably the first time I've posted in The Sports Folder twice in one day in ages. Last time, I remember posting in one of these threads, I remember Bob Barron scoffing at me for predicting that The Marlins would finish around .500 in '03.

 

AL East

New York- 96

Boston-90

Tampa Bay-88

Toronto- 79

Baltimore- 71

 

AL Central

Cleveland- 86

Minnesota- 84

Chicago-79

Detroit-74

Kansas City-70

 

AL West

Anaheim- 94

Oakland- 85

Texas-75

Seattle-60

 

NL East

Philadelphia- 97

Atlanta-89

New York-87

Florida-79

Washington-61

 

NL Central

Chicago-94

Milwaukee-88

St. Louis-84

Cincinnati- 75

Houston-67

Pittsburgh-63

 

NL West

Los Angeles- 90

San Francisco- 84

Arizona-78

Colorado- 74

San Diego- 70

[Guest Smues]

Maybe I'll spit out some shitty numbers later, but I don't have any confidence in my ability to guess these. I'll be all over the over/unders when they come out though!

[CanadianGuitarist 0]

I want to come here and say that everyone's underestimating the Jays (66 wins?), but I don't want them to completely bottom out and have everyone laugh at me at the end of the season.

 

I'm hoping for 81 wins. Meaningful baseball last year was a nice bridge between the end of majors in golf, up to the start of football season.

[cabbageboy 0]

Here we go with comments when needed:

 

NL East:

 

New York 93 (They won't do the choke this year until the playoffs.)

Florida 90 (You want ominous? 1997....2003....2009. Anyone else smell wild card?)

Philly 84 (The Phillies finally won it all but at some point relying on an old man like Jamie Moyer to get 16 wins will backfire.)

Atlanta 70 (Just not much left there.)

Washington 61 (Eh, someone has to be last.)

 

Central:

 

Chicago 96 (Cubs will win a bunch in the reg. season again, after that I have no idea.)

St. Louis 89 (Cardinals will be a bit back on track but barely miss the playoffs.)

Houston 87 (The Astros always come on strong late to my chagrin.)

Milwaukee 86 (Slight fall off from last year with no Sabathia to save them.)

Cincinnati 75 (About like last year.)

Pittsburgh 66 (Just not ever any good these days.)

 

West:

 

Arizona 88 (If these guys could ever hit they could be dangerous.)

Los Angeles 84 (Up and down like last year, regardless of Manny.)

San Francisco 79 (A bit better but still not a major threat as is.)

San Diego 63

Colorado 61

 

AL East:

 

Tampa Bay 98 (Am I missing something here? I didn't see much fluke about this team last year. They are young and with Price now starting could have the ace they lacked last year.)

Boston 94 (Solid and steady, pitching maybe slightly better, hitting I dunno so much.)

New York 90 (They got Sabathia but lost Mussina's 20 wins. The other moves like Burnett and Teixiera are just...eh.)

Toronto 84 (Not really that bad of a team but just in a stacked division.)

Baltimore 70 (Someone has to finish last.)

 

Central:

 

Minnesota 90

Chicago 89 (Basically just a switch from last year with these top teams.)

Detroit 81 (Still an underachieving, highly paid team.)

Cleveland 78 (Their days of contending might be over for now.)

Kansas City 71 (Typical last place Royals.)

 

West:

 

Oakland 89 (The A's are always lurking and ready to contend it seems like.)

Anaheim 87 (Lost quite a bit and really weren't that great stats wise last year.)

Texas 79 (If they could get some pitching I might pick them to win the division in the future.)

Seattle 61 (Just a bad, bad team there.)

 

 

[Mik 0]

The Marlins are winning 90+ games this year. Take it to the bank.

[garfieldsnose 0]

Philly 84 (The Phillies finally won it all but at some point relying on an old man like Jamie Moyer to get 16 wins will backfire.)

 

 

While I agree they shouldn't be relying on him for most of their starting pitcher wins (and he won't be the leader this year), I think they kept him around to continue helping Hamels and Happ and other young pitchers. Hamels said Moyer helped him out so much the last couple years, so why would you want to let him go?

[milliondollarchamp 0]

American League East

1 - Boston Red Sox 98

3 - New York Yankees 93

2 - Tampa Bay Rays 91

4 - Toronto Blue Jays 83

5 - Baltimore Orioles 69

 

American League Central

1 - Cleveland Indians 89

2 - Minnesota Twins 88

3 - Chicago White Sox 82

4 - Detroit Tigers 78

5 - Kansas City Royals 76

 

American League West

1 - Los Angeles Angels 96

2 - Oakland A's 83

3 - Texas Rangers 76

4 - Seattle Mariners 70

 

National League East

1 - Philadelphia Phillies 97

2 - New York Mets 89

3 - Florida Marlins 82

4 - Atlanta Braves 78

5 - Washington Nationals 63

 

National League Central

1 - Chicago Cubs 90

2 - St.Louis Cardinals 84

3 - Milwaukee Brewers 80

4 - Houston Astros 77

5 - Cincinatti Reds 70

6 - Pittsburgh Pirates 66

 

National League West

1 - Los Angeles Dodgers 84

2 - San Fransisco Giants 80

3 - Arizona Diamondbacks 79

4 - Colorado Rockies 76

5 - San Diego Padres 68

[fazzle 0]

Players linked to/suspended because of steroids - 23

[St. Gabe 0]

American League East

1 - Tampa Bay 96

3 - New York Yankees 93

2 - Boston 91

4 - Toronto Blue Jays 75

5 - Baltimore Orioles 68

 

American League Central

1 - White Sox 90

2 - Cleveland 88

3 - Minnesota 78

4 - Detroit Tigers 74

5 - Kansas City Royals 69

 

American League West

1 - Los Angeles Angels 93

2 - Oakland A's 85

3 - Texas Rangers 72

4 - Seattle Mariners 69

 

National League East

1 - Mets 97

2 - Phillies 94

3 - Florida Marlins 88

4 - Atlanta Braves 78

5 - Washington Nationals 71

 

National League Central

1 - Chicago Cubs 94

2 - Brewers 82

3 - St Louis 80

4 - Houston Astros 73

5 - Cincinatti Reds 70

6 - Pittsburgh Pirates 70

 

National League West

1 - Los Angeles Dodgers 89

2 - Diamondbacks 87

3 - Rockies 81

4 - San Fransisco Giants 74

5 - San Diego Padres 70

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

While I agree they shouldn't be relying on him for most of their starting pitcher wins (and he won't be the leader this year), I think they kept him around to continue helping Hamels and Happ and other young pitchers. Hamels said Moyer helped him out so much the last couple years, so why would you want to let him go?

 

If a guy can't pitch, any mentoring he does won't help a damn bit. BPro had a great line about Brad Ausmus. The word for that type is coach. Moyer still has something left though. And if Moyer should falter, the Phillies have Carlos Carrasco coming up and a few other options available.