Yahoo NCAA Tourney Pick 'em

[alfdogg 0]

ID#: 30056

password: password

[Xavier Cromartie 0]

 

My Yahoo! trophy case needs some '09 booty.

[Jaxxson Mayhem 0]

I'm in.

[alfdogg 0]

Looking for two titles in three years here at TSM, and overall 8 trophies for tourney pick 'em.

[RepoMan 0]

In.

[Guest Czech please!]

Did I come in second place last year?

[Xavier Cromartie 0]

I think that whoever else had Kansas finished ahead of you in points, but you would have won if Memphis had won. (Thus, it was you vs. me for the championship.)

[MFer 0]

In as well.

[Craig Th 0]

I'm in.

[Bored 0]

Bumping this for those who haven't noticed the thread yet.

[Vampiro69 0]

What the heck, whats one more bracket for me to fill out.

[AboveAverage484 0]

In.

[St. Gabe 0]

joined

 

[Kinetic 0]

I'm also in.

[naiwf 0]

Me too.

[Mike wanna be 0]

Likewise.

[Prophet of Mike Zagurski 0]

I joined a couple days ago just in case anyone was wondering.

[CanadianChris 0]

Posting "in" to improve post count.

[Perfxion 0]

in it to lose it.

[fazzle 0]

My bracket is boring as fuck, but I'm in

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

No real surprises in my bracket. I think that we'll see relatively few first round upsets, but all sorts of chaos as we get a little further down the line. The gap between the top seeds and the guys in the middle isn't that big. My prediction: someone comes out of nowhere to win the title like Florida a few years back. Do I know who that is? Absolutely not.

[KingPK 0]

Even though I picked 3 #1s to get to the Final Four, I'll be shocked if one actually does. I could see two or three falling in the Sweet 16 at the earliest.

[Xavier Cromartie 0]

Hey objet petit a, I applaud your courage in picking Gonzaga. According to the statistical championship model that I created, Gonzaga is the only team that exactly matches all of the criteria this year. If they weren't in the same region as UNC and Oklahoma, I'd probably have them in my final four, too. However, Gonzaga and Memphis have somewhat inflated numbers under this model because of the relative weakness of their conference opponents.

 

My prediction: someone comes out of nowhere to win the title like Florida a few years back. Do I know who that is? Absolutely not.

This year is tough to pick, indeed. My championship model said that it would be Florida or Kansas in 2007 and only Kansas in 2008, but there's no clear-cut team this season. The injuries to Lawson, Dyson, and Griffin further confused things. The model has four teams above all others: Gonzaga, North Carolina, Oklahoma, and Wake Forest (in that order). Then there are five other teams that resemble the model close enough that I could see their winning: Missouri, Pitt, UConn, Memphis, and Louisville (in that order, and Memphis and Louisville are really stretching it). The model says that Duke, Michigan State, Villanova, Syracuse, Xavier, et al have a 0% chance. Michigan State looks really horrible.

 

Short version: If someone comes out of nowhere to win it, I think that it will be Gonzaga, Oklahoma, Wake Forest, or Missouri.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

What sort of model are you using? I was looking over the log5 probabilities at basketballprospectus.com and their outputs keep saying Memphis is the overwhelming favorite, with Lousiville, UNC and Pitt lagging behind. They also seem to really like Gonzaga, but openly admit that there is a flaw in their model that overrates teams from bad conferences.

[naiwf 0]

I'm hoping that the basketball prospectus guys are right since those 3 teams are in my Final Four and I went with Louisville beating Pitt for the championship. I don't like picking two Big East teams for the championship game but I really didn't like anyone else either. Having said that I wouldn't be shocked if all 3 teams lost this weekend just to blow up my bracket.

 

It looks like Cheech edited his post. There was nothing about UNC or Gonzaga there when I responded. I have Oklahoma beating the Tar Heels to join Memphis and the two from the Big East. I've got Gonzaga losing to Illinois which will be great for me if it happens.

[Bored 0]

I have Pitt beating West Fuckin' Virginia in the finals. I've lost my mind.

 

And I too also have Gonzaga finally getting to the Final Four.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

It looks like Cheech edited his post. There was nothing about UNC or Gonzaga there when I responded. I have Oklahoma beating the Tar Heels to join Memphis and the two from the Big East. I've got Gonzaga losing to Illinois which will be great for me if it happens.

I forgot to add UNC on my first go-round, but 'Zaga was definitely mentioned. The whole point of my post was that log5 was overrating Memphis and to a lesser extent, Gonzaga, because they beat up on their crappy conferences.

[naiwf 0]

Memphis is looking like ass against Cal St. Northridge. I usually don't like picking them or the Zags because they usually end up disappointing me in the tourney.

[Xavier Cromartie 0]

What sort of model are you using? I was looking over the log5 probabilities at basketballprospectus.com and their outputs keep saying Memphis is the overwhelming favorite, with Lousiville, UNC and Pitt lagging behind. They also seem to really like Gonzaga, but openly admit that there is a flaw in their model that overrates teams from bad conferences.

I looked at the champions from 2000–2008 and figured out the meaningful attributes that they all share that make them successful. It's surprisingly consistent, except that 2003 Syracuse was a little bit of an outlier (like Memphis and Louisville this year).

 

Memphis has a field-goal percentage that the model considers too poor, for example. (That's not the only reason that they don't match the championship model, though.)

[bob_barron 0]

Memphis is looking like ass against Cal St. Northridge. I usually don't like picking them or the Zags because they usually end up disappointing me in the tourney.

 

In the last three tourneys, they've gone pretty far. 2 Elite 8s and one title game.

 

I didn't join this year because I find it awkward to do a bracket when your team is one of the top seeds