The problem is that this early on (yes, its early, but we still love to talk about it) only the most established candidates seem to get any press. There's still time for a dark horse to come in and totally upset the apple cart (a la Bill Clinton in 1992). Of course, the Republicans ALWAYS nominate the early front runner. If it wasn't for the Shiavo fiasco, I'd say Frist had a 80% chance of winning the nomination just by virtue of his resume.