I think you are right about Monta Ellis and the second round pick rule, but even after the Maggette and Turiaf signings the Warriors should be under the cap. The Clippers are going to blow their wad on an offer sheet to Smith or Okafor. That leaves Memphis as the only team who could steal Ellis away, and I think we all know that's not happening.
Anyways, I'm not ready to make one of those statements declaring a shift in the balance of power, but the bottom of the Western Conference is going to be putrid next year. The Clippers, Sonics/Barons, Grizzlies, Wolves, Kings and Warriors are going to be terrible. Those are probably the six worst teams in the league heading into next year.