Ask Al: Part Two!

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

These threads always prove popular. With the dearth in quality analysis on television and radio these days, get your answers instead from a knowledgeable fan who has a reasonable idea of what he's talking about!

 

Try to avoid questions such as "Will X make the postseason/World Series?" It's difficult to make predictions and sometimes my guess is as good as your's. Otherwise, any topic is fair game.

[razazteca 0]

Did ESPN fire Reynolds because he was pro-Barry Bonds stating that the govt and media was trying to take him down for 3 years and have nothing to show for it?

[strummer 0]

Was Aaron Heilman's 2005 season a fluke? Why has he struggled so much this year?

[bob_barron 0]

How come pre World War II elite players could hit .400, and now nobody does.

 

Are there any baseball records you think will never be broken?

 

Explain Chris Reitsma

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Did ESPN fire Reynolds because he was pro-Barry Bonds stating that the govt and media was trying to take him down for 3 years and have nothing to show for it?

No.

 

Was Aaron Heilman's 2005 season a fluke? Why has he struggled so much this year?

Heilman had an unusually low Opponents' batting average last year, and that was bound to come up. What strikes me about Heilman is how some Met fans were convinced he was terrible based on his early exposure as a starter. Heilman's numbers this year are on the low end of what to expect from him. He's still league average at this point.

 

I guess it's a roundabout way of saying yes, 2005 was a fluke. I think hitters have caught up to his stuff. He's good enough though that he'll get better than he's shown this year, and settle in somewhere between his 2005 and 2006 performances.

[the max 0]

Is Joe Girardi the Manager of the Year?

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

How come pre World War II elite players could hit .400, and now nobody does.

 

It was simply easier to hit .400 then. Despite what most old-timers will tell you, the quality of players then was not as good as it is now. Stephen Jay Gould used to advance the theory that the disappearance of extremes in performances is evidence of evolution at work. If Ted Williams or Nap Lajoie came back today, I doubt they would hit .400.

 

Are there any baseball records you think will never be broken?

 

If I had to pick one, it would be Cy Young's career wins record.

 

Explain Chris Reitsma

He's hurt. Simple as that.

[vivalaultra 0]

You've probably mentioned it before, but, Craig Biggio and Jeff Bagwell-1st Ballot HOF'ers, right? I'm trying to win a bet.

 

As far as elite hitters in baseball go, how does Lance Berkman rate?

 

Why is the Astros' offense so terrible despite having guys that should be good offensive players? Is it something to do with the general hitting philosophy, or lack thereof, of the club or is it just some bizzarre aberration?

 

What's the deal with Lidge? Is he whacked in the head or is he just too predictable? Does he still rank as an elite closer or does his hot/cold season so far make him washed up?

[Guest]

Is Andre Ethier as good as his stats seem to indicate? By that, I mean was he this good in the minors, and if so, why did the A's trade him for Milton Bradley?

[Brett Favre 0]

Is Scott Proctor for real? Can he keep pitching the way he's pitching?

 

Is Melky Cabrera a starter in this league?

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Is Joe Girardi the Manager of the Year?

I would vote for him. No manager has done more with less.

 

You've probably mentioned it before, but, Craig Biggio and Jeff Bagwell-1st Ballot HOF'ers, right? I'm trying to win a bet.

 

As far as elite hitters in baseball go, how does Lance Berkman rate?

 

Why is the Astros' offense so terrible despite having guys that should be good offensive players? Is it something to do with the general hitting philosophy, or lack thereof, of the club or is it just some bizzarre aberration?

 

What's the deal with Lidge? Is he whacked in the head or is he just too predictable? Does he still rank as an elite closer or does his hot/cold season so far make him washed up?

1. Yes, although I hardly see how you would win a bet on my opinion. Logistically, I think Biggio is a dead lock at this point.

 

2. Top 5-10%. He's very good, and yet somehow overlooked. It's possible fans underrate him because of the ballpark. He's good, bandbox or no.

 

3. The Astros are punting offense at shortstop and catcher, and carrying a slap hitter with little discipline at the top of their lineup. Outside of Berkman there's not really an impact hitter.

 

4. Closers/relievers are sometimes flashes in the sky. It's possible that Lidge is slumping, but he brings to mind others such as John Rocker and Rob Dibble, that threw hard, were enormously successful, and flamed out quickly.

[Vern Gagne 0]

Did ESPN fire Reynolds because he was pro-Barry Bonds stating that the govt and media was trying to take him down for 3 years and have nothing to show for it?

 

That would be reason enough to fire him.

 

Does a DH deserve less consideration for MVP?

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Last ones before I go to tonight's game.

 

Is Andre Ethier as good as his stats seem to indicate? By that, I mean was he this good in the minors, and if so, why did the A's trade him for Milton Bradley?

I think they though Ethier wouldn't be good this quickly, and there was some risk. Teams will often trade prospects for known commodities, though the A's don't do it often. In this case, they figured if Andre Ethier panned out, he'd be as good as Milton Bradley. They made the trade because they rated Bradley highly, not because they were down on Ethier.

 

Is Scott Proctor for real? Can he keep this up?

 

Is Melky Cabrera a starter in this league?

1. Proctor's hit lucky right now, and given his past performances he is likely to decline.

 

2. I'd defer to Baseball America's Jim Callis on this one, who thinks Cabrera's a fourth outfielder. He's seen as not good enough defensively to play center, and not good enough offensively to hold a corner. I haven't seen enough of Cabrera myself to differ from that opinion.

[Guest]

Teams will often trade prospects for known commodities, though the A's don't do it often.

That's why I found the trade odd.

[Brett Favre 0]

Is Chien-Ming Wang a better version of Carlos Silva? Effective low k pitcher?

 

Are Philip Hughes and Tyler Clippard the best 1-2 punch in the minors as of now (in terms of performance)? Clippard's been pretty dominant lately.

[Your Paragon of Virtue 0]

What are the Jays chances to grab a Wild Card or division win this year? What do you think is holding them back at this point, and do you think based off of their performance so far this year that they are primed to be even better next year or will this year's showing merely be a flash in the pan?

[razazteca 0]

Does a DH deserve less consideration for MVP?

Indians DH Travis Haftner for MVP?

[Vern Gagne 0]

Mauer is the MVP.

[NoCalMike 0]

Will the return of Rich Harden to the A's pitching rotation offer a spark to the team or will he simply get hurt again after a couple of starts?

[Slayer 0]

How long have I been your favorite poster

[naiwf 0]

How can any player win the league wide MVP (A-Rod 2005) when he's not even close to the most valuable player on his team (Rivera)? Are sportswriters really that stupid?

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

How can any player win the league wide MVP (A-Rod 2005) when he's not even close to the most valuable player on his team (Rivera)? Are sportswriters really that stupid?

 

Please, not this again.

[Guest]

This is what happened last time, for those that don't remember.

 

2005 WARP numbers:

 

A-Rod: 10.5

Ortiz: 8.0

 

WARP is wins above replacement player, and it measures the true value of a player in relation to his team. A-Rod created 10.5 more wins than a replacement level player would have in that Yankees lineup given the exact same opportunities. If A-Rod and Ortiz both broke their leg on opening day and were replaced by comparable AAA/fringe major league players the Yankees would have won 85 games and the Sox 87 games. Guess who gets left out of the playoffs in that scenario? Do I need to spell that one out too?

 

I know these stats are a little oversimplified, but you can't just throw out blanket statements without providing some proof. Don't tell us that we know nothing about measuring value when there are dozens of advanced metrics that measure this stuff (VORP, WARP1, EQA, RC/27).

 

And I have no gripes with Mo Rivera, but he has to have a lead to protect in the ninth inning. If he doesn't have guys in the lineup who can mash, his value is limited. A guy who pitches 70 innings a year is not comparable to an everyday player or a starter no matter how great they are at the end of a game.

 

I don't buy certain stats. The Sox have 2 feared hitters. Take 1 out (Ortiz) on opening day and the other (Ramirez) sees nothing to hit all season. As a result, you'd rid Boston of basically all of their offensive threats with the lost of one player. The Yankees on the other hand are still capable of mashing even with Sheff and Matsui out, and being replaced by scrubs like Melky Cabrera and Bubba Crosby. My eyes tell me that the Yankees have more than enough offense to endure without A-Rod while the Sox can't afford to lose either Ortiz or Ramirez.

 

Lastly, Mariano Rivera is essentially the reason the Yankees have been the Yankees for the last decade. A-Rod hasn't helped them win a title yet and I'm sure he was a huge upgrade individually over Charlie Hayes, Wade Boggs and Scott Brosius. Stats can lie especially when they involve complex formulas and have retarded names like VORP and WARP. Sabremetrics has ruined baseball.

So we can leave it at that.

[Guest Princess Leena]

How can any player win the league wide MVP (A-Rod 2005) when he's not even close to the most valuable player on his team (Rivera)? Are sportswriters really that stupid?

 

Oh.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Did ESPN fire Reynolds because he was pro-Barry Bonds stating that the govt and media was trying to take him down for 3 years and have nothing to show for it?

 

That would be reason enough to fire him.

 

Does a DH deserve less consideration for MVP?

Yes, simply because defensive contributions add value to a team's bottom line. Take for example, Ozzie Smith in 1987. The Cardinals in that year, and any other year of Oz's career, allowed fewer runs because of Smith's excellent glovework. That absolutely should come into consideration.

 

The MVP guidelines specifically state, offense and defense. The DH, making contributions on just one side, is at a disadvantage.

 

Is Chien-Ming Wang a better version of Carlos Silva? Effective low k pitcher?

 

Are Philip Hughes and Tyler Clippard the best 1-2 punch in the minors as of now (in terms of performance)? Clippard's been pretty dominant lately.

I don't think they're really comparable. Wang succeeds because he never allows home runs. Silva succeeded because he walked batters at a historically low rate. I would say Wang is a new version of Kent Tekulve, except as a starter.

 

Hughes and Clippard are a good 1-2 punch. I'd hesitate to call them the best. Gonzalez/Mathieson for Reading were great, but Mathieson's in AAA now. In any case, I don't think they're handing out prizes for it.

 

What are the Jays chances to grab a Wild Card or division win this year? What do you think is holding them back at this point, and do you think based off of their performance so far this year that they are primed to be even better next year or will this year's showing merely be a flash in the pan?

Baseball Prospectus gives the Jays a 9% chance at the division and 8% chance at the wild card, 17% overall. That sounds reasonable. The big problem the Jays have of course is their tough competition. They're where they should be at this point, and I wouldn't expect a big regression, nor improvement. What they do from here probably depends on what they do over the offseason.

[Your Paragon of Virtue 0]

Thanks for the answer Al. Just a comment to add, it seems like the bullpen is their biggest hurdle to overcome as they've blown games because of it more than anything else. It's become very frustrating actually.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Does a DH deserve less consideration for MVP?

Indians DH Travis Haftner for MVP?

He's hitting good enough to get the MVP, but there's no way he does it on a losing team. Jim Thome, however, absolutely should garner consideration. Like Vern, I'd give it to Mauer if the season ended today.

 

Will the return of Rich Harden to the A's pitching rotation offer a spark to the team or will he simply get hurt again after a couple of starts?

I'd take the latter until he makes a few starts.

 

How long have I been your favorite poster

Ever since you wasted time to post in my thread.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

How can any player win the league wide MVP (A-Rod 2005) when he's not even close to the most valuable player on his team (Rivera)? Are sportswriters really that stupid?

1. A-Rod led the AL in win shares.

 

2. Closers are never the most valuable players on their teams.

 

3. While Ortiz had 20 home runs that either tied the game or put his team ahead, Rodriguez had 19 such home runs.

 

4. The Yankees won the division, so writers can't pull the losing team card.

 

Thanks for the answer Al. Just a comment to add, it seems like the bullpen is their biggest hurdle to overcome as they've blown games because of it more than anything else. It's become very frustrating actually.

The Jays are 9th in bullpen ERA. They rate ahead of the White Sox. They can win with it, though it may be difficult. The problem is that pitching is at a premium in the market.

[Your Paragon of Virtue 0]

Well the thing is it has been struggling lately. Also, those numbers rise because of Ryan, who has been as good as promised so far. Set up guys are the ones that have been costing us recently.

 

Last bit on the Jays; what do you think of the whole Shea Hillenbrand situation, are the Jays better off without him? How would you rate John Gibbons as a manager?

 

If you were to make a prediction as of today who would you pick to make the playoffs/win the world series?

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Well the thing is it has been struggling lately. Also, those numbers rise because of Ryan, who has been as good as promised so far. Set up guys are the ones that have been costing us recently.

 

Last bit on the Jays; what do you think of the whole Shea Hillenbrand situation, are the Jays better off without him? How would you rate John Gibbons as a manager?

 

If you were to make a prediction as of today who would you pick to make the playoffs/win the world series?

Won't do the predictions, it's too close to call.

 

With Shea, the Jays absolutely had to get rid of him. If you don't, you undermine any authority John Gibbons has in the clubhouse, and if you let Gibbons go, you demonstrate that the inmates are running the asylum. Besides, Hillenbrand was not a crucial part of the lineup. Gibbons I think is decent. I don't see any reason to criticize the job he's done.