2006-07 MLB Offseason Thread

[Smartly Pretty 0]

I took that sabermetrics poll last night. the numbers got way out of hand.

 

1) How would you characterize your knowledge of sabermetrics?

 

97.0% Expert

1.2% Well-versed

0.9% Familiar

0.4% Unfamiliar

0.4% Vaguely aware

 

2) What do you trust more when evaluating a player?

 

98.4% Sabermetric statistics (OBP, VORP, WHIP)

1.6% Old-school statistics (AVG, RBIs, wins)

 

3) Which stat do you use the most when evaluating hitters?

 

96.9% On-base plus slugging (OPS)

1.1% On-base percentage (OBP)

0.9% Batting average (AVG)

0.9% Slugging percentage (SLG)

0.2% Runs batted in (RBI)

 

4) Which stat do you use the most when evaluating pitchers?

 

96.0% Strikeouts per walk (K/BB)

2.3% Earned-run average (ERA)

1.1% Walks and hits per innings pitched (WHIP)

0.3% Groundball-flyball ratio (GB/FB)

0.2% Wins (W)

 

5) Which stat do you use the most when evaluating fielders?

 

97.8% Fielding runs above average (FRAA)

1.6% Errors (E)

0.4% Range Factor (RF)

0.2% Assists (A)

 

6) What do you think about the focus on statistics in baseball?

 

99.3% It enhances my enjoyment of the game

0.7% It doesn't affect the way I watch the game

0.1% It detracts from my enjoyment of the game

 

97% of the population can't be an expert on something. That's completely illogical.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

I wouldn't even consider myself a sabermetrics expert, and I spend at least an hour or two a day screwing around on baseball-reference.com and Baseball Prospectus.

[geniusMoment 0]

I realize the Cubs have taken some shit this offseason, but I think they're going to be better than most here think.

 

Soriano cf

DeRosa 2nd

Lee 1st

Ramirez 3rd

Floyd lf

Murton rf

Barrett c

Cedeno ss

 

 

That has the chance to be a very good lineup, and if Floyd stays healthy that's the best lineup in the central.

[snuffbox 0]

At least vivalaultra exclusively roots for his teams.

 

Naif has a pretty good setup going by cheering for whatever team just won the championship.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

I realize the Cubs have taken some shit this offseason, but I think they're going to be better than most here think.

 

Soriano cf

DeRosa 2nd

Lee 1st

Ramirez 3rd

Floyd lf

Murton rf

Barrett c

Cedeno ss

 

 

That has the chance to be a very good lineup, and if Floyd stays healthy that's the best lineup in the central.

Jacque Jones is still the right fielder, and Cesar Izturis has the starting job at short.

[Guest Oedipus Rex]

At least vivalaultra exclusively roots for his teams.

 

Naif has a pretty good setup going by cheering for whatever team just won the championship.

YEAH CAWDNALS! THAT'LL SHOW THE CUBS! METS HAD IT COMIN ANYWAY!

[geniusMoment 0]

I realize the Cubs have taken some shit this offseason, but I think they're going to be better than most here think.

 

Soriano cf

DeRosa 2nd

Lee 1st

Ramirez 3rd

Floyd lf

Murton rf

Barrett c

Cedeno ss

 

 

That has the chance to be a very good lineup, and if Floyd stays healthy that's the best lineup in the central.

Jacque Jones is still the right fielder, and Cesar Izturis has the starting job at short.

I thought they were going to move Jones before opening day, as he wasn't exactly a fan favorite.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

I realize the Cubs have taken some shit this offseason, but I think they're going to be better than most here think.

 

Soriano cf

DeRosa 2nd

Lee 1st

Ramirez 3rd

Floyd lf

Murton rf

Barrett c

Cedeno ss

 

 

That has the chance to be a very good lineup, and if Floyd stays healthy that's the best lineup in the central.

 

I don't know why they are even bothering with Floyd. They could have put Soriano in left and called up Pie. They need to stop worrying about a Corey Patterson Redux.

[Guest Oedipus Rex]

That's the plan, I think. He's not really a fan of the Cubs either. Also, I don't believe the Cubs want Soriano to play in center.

[vivalaultra 0]

The Cubs do have the potential to have the best lineup in the NL Central, but you know they're gonna screw it up by batting Soriano lead-off and leaving Matt Murton on the bench. Put the lineup thusly:

 

Izturis ss

DeRosa 2b

Derek Lee 1b

Aram 3b

Soriano cf

Jones lf

Barret c

Murton rf

 

and that's a formidable 3, 4, 5. And I still don't get all this about how the Cubs are gonna go from last place to first place in the span of 1 season with a new manager and a buncha new players, but there's still the good sign that they seem to have moved past the "If Mark Prior and Kerry Wood are healthy..." phase.

[Dobbs 3K 0]

The logic of putting Bill Hall in center is that he'll have to move again when Braun is up, potentially yet this season or the season after. Braun is considered a stud prospect, and is pretty much an exclusive 3B player. Hardy and Weeks obviously aren't moving anywhere, so Hall has to go to CF (where he'll be fine, anyway). The Brewers are hoping Koskie will bounce back from his concussion, but if that doesn't pan out, Counsell and Graffanino will probably platoon at 3B.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

The Cubs do have the potential to have the best lineup in the NL Central, but you know they're gonna screw it up by batting Soriano lead-off and leaving Matt Murton on the bench. Put the lineup thusly:

 

Izturis ss

DeRosa 2b

Derek Lee 1b

Aram 3b

Soriano cf

Jones lf

Barret c

Murton rf

 

and that's a formidable 3, 4, 5. And I still don't get all this about how the Cubs are gonna go from last place to first place in the span of 1 season with a new manager and a buncha new players, but there's still the good sign that they seem to have moved past the "If Mark Prior and Kerry Wood are healthy..." phase.

If there's one thing stupider than batting Soriano leadoff, it's putting Izturis there.

 

As for Felix Pie, I think the thought is that Cliff Floyd is a one year option. I don't think there's anything wrong with having an extra player for one year. Let Pie prove that he deserves a shot.

[vivalaultra 0]

The Cubs don't really have a leadoff hitter. Izturis doesn't really work as a leadoff man, but he's a switch hitter. DeRosa could lead off, but he strikes out too much. Matt Murton might work as a leadoff man, but would probably be better served in a better RBI spot. For all the signings the Cubs made, they didn't get anybody that really works and is best suited for his abilities and for the team as a leadoff hitter.

[naiwf 0]

It seems the homers of the midwest on TSM don't understand it is possible to root FOR your team AND also root AGAINST other teams. I only like 3 teams in pro sports (1 in each of the 3 major sports), but thanks to the guys on this board I've grown to add to my collection of hated teams with the Ravens, Astros and Bears joining the Yankees, Fighting Irish and the rest of the NFC East. So thanks guys.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

The Cubs don't really have a leadoff hitter. Izturis doesn't really work as a leadoff man, but he's a switch hitter. DeRosa could lead off, but he strikes out too much. Matt Murton might work as a leadoff man, but would probably be better served in a better RBI spot. For all the signings the Cubs made, they didn't get anybody that really works and is best suited for his abilities and for the team as a leadoff hitter.

Izturis barely works as a hitter. Here's a list of active hitters in OBP, minimum 2,000 plate appearances...

 

220 Tony Batista .298

221 Juan Uribe .297

222 Corey Patterson .297

223 Cesar Izturis .295

224 Mike Matheny .293

225 Alex Gonzalez .292

226 Tomas Perez .291

227 Henry Blanco .290

228 Pedro Feliz .288

229 Juan Castro .272

 

Call me crazy, but I'd put Soriano in front. He flourished there last year, why mess with success?

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Let us not forget that lineups are essentially meaningless anyways. There was a study done at the SABR convetion a year back or so that showed the difference between a perfectly constructed lineup and one that was completely wrong equated to soemthing like 2 wins a year. Might as well let guys hit where they are comfortable and keep up appearances than do something that might be perceived as crazy.

 

EDIT: As Al was alluding to, just having Izturis in the lienup everyday will cost them more runs over the couse of the year than having Soriano hit first.

[Guest Oedipus Rex]

It seems the homers of the midwest on TSM don't understand it is possible to root FOR your team AND also root AGAINST other teams. I only like 3 teams in pro sports (1 in each of the 3 major sports), but thanks to the guys on this board I've grown to add to my collection of hated teams with the Ravens, Astros and Bears joining the Yankees, Fighting Irish and the rest of the NFC East. So thanks guys.

I don't like the Eagles or Giants, but I don't actively celebrate their failures, because they don't mean a thing to me vis-a-vis my own team. It just means I'm filling a void in a most pathetic way. When you root for the Heat and Colts just to spite other people, that really comes off as pretty sad.

[vivalaultra 0]

They're going to have to put Soriano batting leadoff if only because they don't have anybody else, but in Soriano, there's a guy that hit 46 homeruns last year and had less than 100 RBI. I know that has something to do with the collective futility of the Washington Nationals, but imagine how much MORE production they could get out of Soriano and his ungodly power by hitting him behind a high on-base guy like Derrek Lee and a great contact hitter with great power like Aram. Personally, I think a more intimidating 3-4-5 is Lee, Aram, Soriano than is Lee, Aram, Jones. I'd even bat Soriano 2nd before I'd bat him leadoff.

 

Edit: Wow. I didn't realize that Tomas Perez had a better .OBP than did Pedro Feliz. And I guess based on statistics lineups really don't amount to much except the first time through the order, but...I really don't have an argument against that. Hell, I'd be ok if the Cubs batted Henry Blanco 3rd and had Jae Kuk Ryu roaming centerfield; I'm an Astros' fan, dammit!

[Failed Bridge 0]

I still find it surprising that Shannon Stewart hasn't got a contract to this point. Unless he has some nagging injury that is.

[vivalaultra 0]

It's probably his foot problems, which are an issue to teams, since he wants to play center...and I heard his asking price was high, higher than Darin Erstad. I heard the Marlins were interested in Stewart, don't know if anything came from it. Bruce Chen got a minor-league deal with the Rangers. Ameriquest doesn't sound like a good fit for Chen.

[Mik 0]

No, nothing came from the Marlins. They want a CF and I think Shannon is past that point in his career (and honestly, he never really was a true CF).

 

Their corner OF are set.

 

Damn, the Marlins need a CF bad, though. Alex Sanchez/Reggie Abercrombie/Eric Reed DEFINITELY isn't going to cut it.

[MarvinisaLunatic 0]

It seems the homers of the midwest on TSM don't understand it is possible to root FOR your team AND also root AGAINST other teams. I only like 3 teams in pro sports (1 in each of the 3 major sports), but thanks to the guys on this board I've grown to add to my collection of hated teams with the Ravens, Astros and Bears joining the Yankees, Fighting Irish and the rest of the NFC East. So thanks guys.

 

The whole city of Cleveland hates the Ravens so its not that big of a deal..sorta like Baltimore is mad now about the Colts..meh.

 

Yahoo posted a sort of AL Eest Preview thats nothing out of the ordinary but:

 

First impression: Since their 1997 division title, or the season after Brady Anderson hit 50 (50!) home runs, the Orioles have put together nine consecutive losing seasons, led by four different managers. Come back, Davey Johnson.

Believe Johnson was run out of Baltimore cause he didnt get along with Petey..which sucks. Most people agree that firing was the turning point in the organization anyway.

 

Competition: Sucked into Leo Mazzone's personal nightmare, the Orioles are in full tired/poor/huddled-masses mode. They'll bring 32 pitchers to camp and sort 'em out in March. Also, Jay Gibbons comes in having to win at-bats in left field (Aubrey Huff, Jay Payton), right field (Nick Markakis), first base (Kevin Millar, Huff) and at DH (Huff, Millar).

Realistically LF - Payton, RF - Markakis 1B - Huff, DH - Gibbons, Off the Bench - Millar. I cant even begin to figure out the Bullpen situation except for the certainty that Chris Ray will be the closer. I figure that some of the guys they signed this offseason make it (Baez,Bradford,Williamson) but who knows past that given the amount of pitchers they'll be looking at in ST to make the bullpen.

 

Healing: Reliever Danys Baez appears to be recovered from his appendectomy, though the effects of 2006 may still linger. Anointed as the Los Angeles Dodgers' closer when Eric Gagne grabbed an elbow, Baez posted a career-high ERA (4.53), due in part to being imprecise in the strike zone, and was replaced by Takashi Saito. Now he's got a three-year, $19 million contract.

Unless Chris Ray falls apart..Baez wont be the closer..so what..its no worse than last years Latroy Hawkins fiasco.

 

Next: A pair of 22-year-olds – right-hander Hayden Penn and left-hander Adam Loewen – give the Orioles hope in a rotation that could use the help after Erik Bedard. Kris Benson is a lock at No. 2 and Daniel Cabrera, assuming his walks rate doesn't rival his strikeouts rate, should go No. 3, followed probably by Jaret Wright. The Orioles believe this gives them enough depth to ponder trading Penn or Loewen (the Atlanta Braves have floated Tim Hudson), but they'd be better off holding on to their young pitchers.

A roation of Bedard/Benson/Cabrera/Wright/Loewen is really good, possibly the Os best rotation they've had since they started that 9 year slide given the upside of Bedard/Cabrera/Lowewen.

 

I have some hope for at least a winning season..

[snuffbox 0]

It seems the homers of the midwest on TSM don't understand it is possible to root FOR your team AND also root AGAINST other teams. I only like 3 teams in pro sports (1 in each of the 3 major sports), but thanks to the guys on this board I've grown to add to my collection of hated teams with the Ravens, Astros and Bears joining the Yankees, Fighting Irish and the rest of the NFC East. So thanks guys.

 

Fuck yeah, brah! You're a fan of every winning team, you just really know how to pick 'em afterwards I guess.

 

GO CHAMPS!

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

A roation of Bedard/Benson/Cabrera/Wright/Loewen is really good, possibly the Os best rotation they've had since they started that 9 year slide given the upside of Bedard/Cabrera/Lowewen.

 

I have some hope for at least a winning season..

 

Unfortunately Marv, this is probably the year that the O's fall into last place, where they will probably reside for the next few seasons. There is just too much talent in Tampa Bay for them to keep throwing up 60-70 win seasons. The Orioles' rotation might be good, but they don't have the talent to compete in that division.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

I think the Devil Rays are still a year away. There's a ton of hitting talent in that system, yes. But none of their top pitching prospects are banging on the door, and until they do the Rays' #2 starter is Casey Fossum.

[Failed Bridge 0]

It also doesn't help that the Devil Rays are just completely unwilling to spend any money.

[Dobbs 3K 0]

Bah, they Rays are screwed. They'll never come close to spending as much as the Red Sox, Yankees, or Orioles. They're also in a bad market, in the same state as another team that's doing poorly in terms of attendance.

[Failed Bridge 0]

I was looking at total team salaries and saw that the Rays and Marlins are both at the bottom of the bucket. That's not surprising but what is surprising is that if you were to combine both rosters then the total team salary would still only be more than the total team salaries of three other teams. The Rockies, Royals, and one other club.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Bah, they Rays are screwed. They'll never come close to spending as much as the Red Sox, Yankees, or Orioles. They're also in a bad market, in the same state as another team that's doing poorly in terms of attendance.

 

They also have a ridiculous amount of premier talent on the team and coming up through the system. This team will have a window where they'll compete in that division. Sustained success will ultimately come down to their willingness to spend and keep said talent.

[The Man in Blak 0]

I'd like to see that fabled Devil Rays pipeline of talent actually produce at some point, before putting them in contention with not only the Yanks and the Sawx, but the Blue Jays as well; Upton, Young, Orvella, and McClung have been "prospects" for more than a few years now.

 

As for the Cubs, I think they could do a lot worse than the following as a lineup:

 

Soriano, CF

Theriot, 2B

D. Lee, 1B

A. Ramirez, 3B

Floyd, LF

Barrett, C

J. Jones / M. DeRosa, RF

Izturis, SS