This Week in Baseball 4/16 - 4/22

[vivalaultra 0]

Guys that perfomed well in 2006 should've been selected to the 2006 All-Star team; guys that perform well this year, should make this year's All-Star team. I don't think the selection process is flawed. It's the fact that casual fans and homers stuff the ballot boxes (and AL managers stack the team w/ their own players) that mucks things up.

 

Edit: Al, J-Bay's the shiznit, no doubt, but is he playing left AND right field on your ballot? I'd take off one of the Bays and stick in Carlos Lee and that would pretty much be my All-Star team.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Guys that perfomed well in 2006 should've been selected to the 2006 All-Star team; guys that perform well this year, should make this year's All-Star team. I don't think the selection process is flawed. It's the fact that casual fans and homers stuff the ballot boxes (and AL managers stack the team w/ their own players) that mucks things up.

 

Edit: Al, J-Bay's the shiznit, no doubt, but is he playing left AND right field on your ballot? I'd take off one of the Bays and stick in Carlos Lee and that would pretty much be my All-Star team.

Fixed, that should've said Andruw Jones.

 

The problem is that the guys with the best stats often are NOT the best players. The All-Star game is supposed to feature the best players in baseball. Are the best players the guys who performed best in April-June of that year? Or are they the guys who have compiled a body of work and ESTABLISHED themselves as stars of the game?

 

As for voting, it works 90% of the time. The only real problem is when there is no elite player and a player gets selected by plurality.

[UseTheSledgehammerUh 0]

Al, sometimes the Phils announcers will be speaking about the sponsors when behind the logo, far away, you see the first pitch of the inning being thrown. I'm awaiting a big home run to be hit one of these days on the first pitch.

 

Looks like we might go to the 13th in D.C. as the MLB Jobber Party continues.

[vivalaultra 0]

Guys that perfomed well in 2006 should've been selected to the 2006 All-Star team; guys that perform well this year, should make this year's All-Star team. I don't think the selection process is flawed. It's the fact that casual fans and homers stuff the ballot boxes (and AL managers stack the team w/ their own players) that mucks things up.

 

Edit: Al, J-Bay's the shiznit, no doubt, but is he playing left AND right field on your ballot? I'd take off one of the Bays and stick in Carlos Lee and that would pretty much be my All-Star team.

Fixed, that should've said Andruw Jones.

 

The problem is that the guys with the best stats often are NOT the best players. The All-Star game is supposed to feature the best players in baseball. Are the best players the guys who performed best in April-June of that year? Or are they the guys who have compiled a body of work and ESTABLISHED themselves as stars of the game?

 

As for voting, it works 90% of the time. The only real problem is when there is no elite player and a player gets selected by plurality.

 

Well, I think that's why they have an All-Star game each year; it's the elite players from the season in which the ASG is held. I mean, where's the fairness in an established player getting an All-Star bid over a first or second season guy if the established player is stinkin' up the joint, hitting .180 with no homers or RBI and the rookie's hitting .380 with 10 HRs and 25 RBI, hypothetically speaking.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Well, I think that's why they have an All-Star game each year; it's the elite players from the season in which the ASG is held. I mean, where's the fairness in an established player getting an All-Star bid over a first or second season guy if the established player is stinkin' up the joint, hitting .180 with no homers or RBI and the rookie's hitting .380 with 10 HRs and 25 RBI, hypothetically speaking.

 

If the gap is that large it's a different matter. Usually it's not.

[vivalaultra 0]

So, you'd be in favor of Craig Biggio being an All-Star this year (not a starter) due to his approaching 3,000 hits and the many, many contributions he's made the Astros and to baseball over the last 21 years?

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

So, you'd be in favor of Craig Biggio being an All-Star this year (not a starter) due to his approaching 3,000 hits and the many, many contributions he's made the Astros and to baseball over the last 21 years?

No, because Chase Utley is clearly the superior player. I am NOT talking about a lifetime achievement award.

[vivalaultra 0]

Oh, no doubt that Utley's been better in recent years and deserves to start. I didn't mean to make Biggio a starter in the game or anything, just a spot on the team. I imagine that if he doesn't get the fan vote, LaRussa will give him a shot.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

To give an example, Gary Matthews. He had a nice season last year. Meanwhile, Johnny Damon did not make the team. Both had nearly equal seasons last year, Damon barely edged Matthews in OPS+ but Matthews was the better defender. Damon was better in '05, '04, '03, '02, '01, etc. Both are nearly the same age. In a situation like that, Damon gets the benefit of the doubt.

[UseTheSledgehammerUh 0]

Phillies now at 3-10! Barring Jeff Garcia playing like God and somehow getting the Birds to the NFC East Title, this has been the shittiest Philadelphia sports years in recent memory.

[Guest Queen Leelee]

And Philly deserves it.

 

Alan, how do you think the Phillies should handle their bullpen situation?

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Phillies now at 3-10! Barring Jeff Garcia playing like God and somehow getting the Birds to the NFC East Title, this has been the shittiest Philadelphia sports years in recent memory.

 

Calm down a little. It's only been 13 games.

[Guest]

3 wins out of 13 at any point in the season is cause for concern, especially for a team that's supposed to contend for their division. They've gotta make up a lot of ground.

 

What do you think it's going to take to win that division, 90 games? They've gotta win 70 percent of their games from here on out. That's a lot. Considering that the Phillies are going to have a few more 4-5 game losing streaks (just like every team), they've put themselves in a terrible position.

[Spaceman Spiff 0]

That's what people said last year (and the year before that). Then they miss the playoffs by a handful of games, and suddenly those early losses don't seem so unimportant.

 

EDIT: suddenly, my avatar seems relevant to my Phillies fandom.

[Mik 0]

National League

C: Brian McCann

1B: Albert Pujols

2B: Chase Utley

SS: Rafael Furcal

3B: Miguel Cabrera

OF: Jason Bay

OF: Carlos Beltran

OF: Andruw Jones

 

Except for one or two positions, it'll stay that way through June.

 

SS:

[Dobbs 3K 0]

Brewers beat the Pirates last night and take back first place in the NL Central. Claudio Vargas looked very good pitching last night.

 

Weirdness of the game was seeing veteran catcher Damian Miller playing first base...he didn't look right out there without his catcher's gear on, to me.

[Failed Bridge 0]

"Wally...it's not what you think!"

Best ESPN commercial in quite awhile

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Mik:

 

I think Rafael Furcal is one of the most underrated players in baseball today. I honestly don't understand how he's only made one All-Star team. There isn't a number that jumps out, but he does everything well and does it year after year. Hits for a good average, hits for power, draws walks, steals 25-40 bases, plays excellent defense, etc. Furcal edged Ramirez last year in win shares, but that was very close and you're in good shape if either are your shortstop. If Furcal maintains his present standard of play I'd take him but it's very close.

 

Leena:

 

I'm not altogether concerned about the bullpen. They pitched six scoreless last night before coughing up the game-winning run. You look at last night's loss and you have Rollins, Utley and Howard combining to go 0-16. It's hard to win like that. I think with pitching at a premium, you make the most of what you have and hope for the best. Don't be afraid to give minor leaguers (i.e. Eude Brito) a shot in the bullpen. One thing they need to do however is move Burrell between Utley and Howard. It's way too easy otherwise for a team to throw their situational reliever at us.

[The Man in Blak 0]

Any manager that green-lights a double steal on the road in extra innings with two outs and Albert Pujols at third base needs to have their fucking head examined.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Any manager that green-lights a double steal on the road in extra innings with two outs and Albert Pujols at third base needs to have their fucking head examined.

It's a better move with two outs than any other situation. Yadier Molina has a .295 OBP, meaning he will make an out 70% of the time. Even if that move only works 35-40% of the time, it's still a better percentage move than letting Molina hit.

 

Ryan Howard's getting an MRI on his leg today. Also, Felix Hernandez left the game in the first yesterday with soreness in his pitching elbow.

[The Man in Blak 0]

It's a better move with two outs than any other situation. Yadier Molina has a .295 OBP, meaning he will make an out 70% of the time. Even if that move only works 35-40% of the time, it's still a better percentage move than letting Molina hit.

 

I agree that the call would make sense if the odds of success were in that range but, intuitively, it doesn't seem like stealing home would have that kind of success rate. Intuition doesn't really hold a lot of water in a debate about probabilities, though, so I dug up some numbers (graciously compiled and provided by John Jarvis on his website) and put together a rudimentary spreadsheet on Google Docs (which I could directly put into this post, if we had <doHTML> tags activated in this folder, hint hint):

 

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pgX...LFEG9WZRENyvvKQ

 

I used Jarvis' data from 2001-2005 (he hasn't published numbers for 2006 yet), just to give us an estimation of the current modern playing environment, and the success rate of attempts throughout all of major league baseball in that five year period is around 27%. What's really interesting about it, though, is the difference between the leagues; even though the success rate for stealing home in 2005 came in at an appealing 34%, the percentage was weighted heavily by the numbers from the American League that year (5 steals in 12 attempts). By and large, stealing home is a much more risky proposition in the National League, with a five year success rate of ~23% and a one-year peak of ~31% in 2005, compared to the respective numbers of the American League over this time (36% five-year percentage, 42% one-year peak in 2001). Contextually, this makes some sense - managers in the National League are more inclined to use "smallball" and aggressive base running strategies to play off of the less potent run environment and, as a result, are more prepared to defend against these strategies as well.

 

Considering these odds when approaching the situation that the Cardinals found themselves in last night, it still doesn't seem like an advantageous play to me for the Cardinals to attempt a delayed double steal of home, even with Professional Catcher Yadier Molina at the plate.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

I'm glad to see some hard data, as I still don't know of any stat site that gives breakdowns of steals of second, third and home. It would be interesting to see how many of those came on botched squeeze attempts, probably a significant number.

 

It really is an intuition play though, because as a manager you're looking at the defense, and the idea is that you're catching the other team off-guard by doing something unusual.

[The Man in Blak 0]

It really is an intuition play though, because as a manager you're looking at the defense, and the idea is that you're catching the other team off-guard by doing something unusual.

 

Sure, there's definitely some game theory at work here. They did have the advantage of a right-handed batter at the plate (Molina), Pujols is a decent, if not especially swift, baserunner, and the pitcher has his back to the play. It's the rest of the context that bothers me - Bengie Molina is no dummy, there are two outs on the board to begin with, and you're getting deeper into extra innings on the road. It just seems like there's just as many red flags as there are green flags with this situation, in my opinion.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

It really is an intuition play though, because as a manager you're looking at the defense, and the idea is that you're catching the other team off-guard by doing something unusual.

 

Sure, there's definitely some game theory at work here. They did have the advantage of a right-handed batter at the plate (Molina), Pujols is a decent, if not especially swift, baserunner, and the pitcher has his back to the play. It's the rest of the context that bothers me - Bengie Molina is no dummy, there are two outs on the board to begin with, and you're getting deeper into extra innings on the road. It just seems like there's just as many red flags as there are green flags with this situation, in my opinion.

Wouldn't it be a better move with two outs than no outs? With no outs, it's inexcusable. And on the road in extra innings? You're playing for one run, and if you think you can get it, that can win you the game. If you tried this in the third with no outs, THAT would be a foolish situation.

[The Man in Blak 0]

I agree that trying it with no outs doesn't really make a lot of sense (and wouldn't even enter the picture, regardless of the batter - a double play that didn't retire the lead runner could still score the run in that situation), but rolling the dice with two outs gives you no safety net whatsoever - if you fail to score at home, that's the end of the inning and you forfeit both base runners.

 

Attempting the steal with one out seems like the most advantageous time to do it - if you blow the play at home, you would still likely have a runner in scoring position at second base with one more out to work with in the inning. If that's the situation, then it makes a little more sense - it's still unbelievably desperate, but at least the repercussions from a possible failure are manageable.

[treble 0]

I think the Reed Johnson injury might be the one that hurts the Jays the most in the long run. I love BJ Ryan, but I don't think over the course of how long he's supposed to be out that it'll hurt the team more than 2 or 3 wins, if that, assuming the rest of the bullpen pitches about as well as they've pitched so far. And losing Glaus's power sucks, but in theory, Wells, Thomas, and Overbay should be able to pick up the slack there (even if they really haven't so far), and he's not supposed to be out for very long, anyway.

 

The hitters just aren't getting anything going, though. Johnson was hitting pretty well before he went down and Rios just doesn't seem to hit as well in the lead-off spot as opposed to lower in the order (he hadn't gotten on base since Saturday until he had a double in today's game). Thank God the starters have been great the last time through the rotation (save for Burnett's start against the Tigers), or they'd be in the middle of a huge, probably season ending-before-it-could-get-going losing streak.

 

EDIT: Well, Rios just hit a big home run to give the Jays the lead, so what do I know.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

The Blue Jays are 4th in runs scored and 2nd in OBP. The offense isn't really a problem, although losing Glaus hurts. I don't see how the Reed Johnson injury is going to affect them, seeing as he is being replaced by a much better player in Adam Lind. In fact, Reed's probably not going to see the field much anymore, even after he recovers.

[treble 0]

I know I'm probably over-reacting, but they hadn't scored more than 2 runs in a game (until today) since Saturday (though they did face some pretty good pitchers in that stretch). I really like Lind, but they seemed to be losing something having Rios in there at lead-off. It just seemed like everyone was comfortable where they were in the line-up before the injuries and maybe they were just taking some time getting used to being moved around.

[CanadianChris 0]

Oh, sure, NOW Manny decides to break out of his slump. I thought that once Downs struck out Papi, it was smooth sailing.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

3 wins out of 13 at any point in the season is cause for concern, especially for a team that's supposed to contend for their division. They've gotta make up a lot of ground.

 

What do you think it's going to take to win that division, 90 games? They've gotta win 70 percent of their games from here on out. That's a lot. Considering that the Phillies are going to have a few more 4-5 game losing streaks (just like every team), they've put themselves in a terrible position.

 

I think your math is a little off. If they won 70% of their remaining games that would give them about 108 wins, which would win the division by about 20. They need to win 58% of their remaining games to finish with 90 wins. That's not out of the question for a team with as much talent as they have. You never want to get in a hole at the beginning of the season, but every team has slumps. Their slump just happend to be at the start of the season.

 

It could be a lot worse. Brett Myers could be in the bullpen and Ryan Howard could be hurt.