This Week in Baseball 4/30 - 5/6

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Now with Mike Piazza out 4 to 6 weeks the A's new starting DH is.......Jack Cust.

 

Am I the only one who's never heard of this Jack Cust before? He sounds like one of those random fake minor league players the computer generates in a video game.

For a time Cust resided on a few top 50 prospect lists. As a 21 year old in AA, he produced a .440 OBP. Moving up to AAA the next season, he had a .415 OBP. A combination of power and plate discipline. The problems were that he struck out 150-160 times a year, and his defense was putrid at best. He never really got a shot though, sticking in AAA since. He's received 144 total at bats in the Majors where he hit .222 but again displayed power and discipline. If he can hit .250 in the Majors his secondary hitting skills will make him productive.

 

Hey Al, how do you feel about the potential move of Myers to closer in Philly? Seems like the only reason you'd have him in the bullpen in the first place would be for high leverage, multiple inning stints. Isn't this a waste of their best pitcher to use him in the tired, up by three at the start of an inning role?

As I noted before, the reason they moved Brett Myers to the pen was that they absolutely could not use Lieber there any longer. Jamie Moyer's a soft-tosser, Freddy Garcia is an innings-eater and Cole Hamels is their ace. That left Myers and Adam Eaton, and teams don't like to take their newly acquired starters and stick them in the pen since it will discourage future signings. I'm fine with it as long as Myers is moved back to the rotation by next season.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Hey Al, how do you feel about the potential move of Myers to closer in Philly? Seems like the only reason you'd have him in the bullpen in the first place would be for high leverage, multiple inning stints. Isn't this a waste of their best pitcher to use him in the tired, up by three at the start of an inning role?

As I noted before, the reason they moved Brett Myers to the pen was that they absolutely could not use Lieber there any longer. Jamie Moyer's a soft-tosser, Freddy Garcia is an innings-eater and Cole Hamels is their ace. That left Myers and Adam Eaton, and teams don't like to take their newly acquired starters and stick them in the pen since it will discourage future signings. I'm fine with it as long as Myers is moved back to the rotation by next season.

I bought into the idea of moving Myers to the bullpen as it solved two problems at once (clearing a logjam of starters, adding a K-guy to the pen) but it just seems like they are back to square one using him as the closer. They don't have any reliable bullpen guys to bridge between the starters and the closer. Myers is being underutilized.

[Guest Queen Leelee]

I'm surprised how you can agree with this, Al. If Whole Camels is PHI's #1, Myers would be #1a. At worse, Myers has been one of the best 30 starting pitchers in baseball for the last 2 years. What does that say if you're a big name FA pitcher? Go to Philly, and get demoted to the bullpen because they're too inept at finding any relievers, and we must keep our 5th starter happy?

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Is it time we stopped laughing at the Royals for giving Gil Meche $55 million?

[TheDevilAndGodAreRagingInsideMe 0]

Yankees win, theeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee Yankees win game 1 of 2.

 

Vizcaino blew the win for Pettitte by giving up a game tying homer to Jerry Hairston Jr (his first in almost 2 years), and then steals Andy's win for himself thanks to an 8th inning RBI double by Matsui. Pettitte should be 4-0, but is 1-0 thanks to the pen.

[Spaceman Spiff 0]

What good is using Myers as set-up if Gordon is just going to blow games? Sure, Gordon is having his shoulder checked out, as he's apparently had some problems coming out of spring training with it (which would've been nice to know before the season started!), but even a healthy Gordon doesn't fill me w/ confidence.

 

Ideally, yes, Myers should still be in the starting rotation. But he's not, and he doesn't look to be going back any time soon. Make him the closer.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

I'm surprised how you can agree with this, Al. If Whole Camels is PHI's #1, Myers would be #1a. At worse, Myers has been one of the best 30 starting pitchers in baseball for the last 2 years. What does that say if you're a big name FA pitcher? Go to Philly, and get demoted to the bullpen because they're too inept at finding any relievers, and we must keep our 5th starter happy?

I don't. But at some point you have to make the most of what you have. What the Phils should do is move some of their minor league starters to the pen and see what they come up with.

[DrainYou42 0]

So, instead of walking a bunch in the fourth, Dice-k does it in the first.

 

Ugh.

 

EDIT - And we tie it up, I love this team!

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

So, instead of walking a bunch in the fourth, Dice-k does it in the first.

 

Ugh.

 

EDIT - And we tie it up, I love this team!

 

Looks like Dice-K is getting some good karma for those 2-1 losses earlier in the year.

 

Anyone find it odd that Matsuzaka's main selling point was that he replicated his arm slot and release point perfectly and it gave him pinpoint control? Haven't seen a whole lot of that yet this year. And he can't pitch out of the stretch to save his life.

[devo 0]

A graphic on the Diamondbacks broadcast of the New York/Arizona game depicted the name of the Mets' speedy utility outfielder as "Edney Chavez".

 

Not quite ESPN MNF levels, but still, pretty embarassing.

[Guest Queen Leelee]

Daisuke had lots of bullshit selling points.

 

Other than the Toronto game, teams are getting hits on him. His WHIP is going to drop below average after this game. I don't want to start the hate wagon here, but I think it's safe to say he probably won't be all he was cracked up to be.

[KingPK 0]

I think every sane person out there figured there were going to be bumps. The second year will be the key. How he evaluates his first year facing major league pitching and how he makes any adjustments to his mechanics will tell if he can get it done in the long run.

[devo 0]

Well, Damion Easley may be pretty mediocre the rest of the time, but hot damn is he good in the ninth inning. A three-run shot puts the Mets up 6-4.

 

Edit: And David Wright closes the book on 'em with another three-run shot to make it 9-4.

[Precious Roy 0]

I give Dice-K props for battling his way through tough situations against the Yankees. Walking the bases loaded with no outs and getting out of it, then going on to pitch another couple of innings....the fact that he's got the grit to work his way out of jams should be encouraging for Sox fans. He got hit and he gave up runs, but he kept fighting.....more than I can say for Dirk Nowitzki

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Daisuke had lots of bullshit selling points.

 

Other than the Toronto game, teams are getting hits on him. His WHIP is going to drop below average after this game. I don't want to start the hate wagon here, but I think it's safe to say he probably won't be all he was cracked up to be.

 

Josh Beckett showed last year that even ace-caliber pitchers can have a tough time making their living in the AL East. I'm not throwing up the white flag yet.

[TheDevilAndGodAreRagingInsideMe 0]

Here's one I've been kicking around with a few different people recently.

 

When Andy Pettitte retires, will he have a Hall of Fame resume? I think that 240-250 or so wins should make him a very interesting candidate, especially given his era of offense/PEDs/bandboxes/expansion and his postseason performances. He's been a key contributor to 7 World Series teams.

[vivalaultra 0]

I think Pettitte's on the outer fringes of being a HOFer now and, even if he pitches another couple years, will still be a relative longshot. He has good numbers, granted, but not blow away numbers. He's only a 2-time All-Star, never won a Cy Young, only been in the top 5 for Cy Young voting 4 times in 13 years, only won 20 or more games twice. He's got a 98 on the HOF monitor, but only a 31 on the HOF standards. He's an interesting case, though. And after the no-doubt HOFers retire-Clemens, Glavine, Maddux, Smoltz, Martinez, Johnson-there's the 'fringe' guys-Schilling, Pettitte, et al. I don't see too many pitchers coming up that will have careers like the guys in the former group, so pretty soon some of the 'fringe' guys are going to have to get in.

[TheDevilAndGodAreRagingInsideMe 0]

Mussina too. He's never won 20, but has won 19 several times. Pettitte's won 20 twice (96, 03) and there have not been many 20 game winners over their careers. He also is 14-9 career in the postseason.

 

Neither have won Cy Youngs, but look who was racking them up during the era - Clemens, Pedro, Johnson.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Pettitte's an interesting candidate because his win percentage (.640) is excellent. His qualifications are similar to another Yankee, Lefty Gomez. The problem is that Hall voters seem hesitant to vote a pitcher into the Hall without overwhelming credentials. I think Pettitte would need 250 wins at least to merit serious consideration.

[Guest Queen Leelee]

But, how many pitchers whose careers started after 1990 will reach 250 wins? If Pettitte doesn't get in his first few years, he probably will down the line. Mostly due to his postseason "clutchiness" (where his ERA was higher than it was in the regular season, but we won't get into an argument over the importance of wins because the HOF is decided by writers such as Woody Paige.)

 

As for my useless qualifications, I don't believe Pettitte should get in. He had 2 elite seasons out of 12. Hall of Very Good For A Long Time status.

 

And Mussina should without any question, be in.

[TheDevilAndGodAreRagingInsideMe 0]

Baseball-Reference's top 10 most similiar pitchers to Andy Pettitte through age 34:

1. Mike Mussina (914)
2. Dwight Gooden (909)
3. Bruce Hurst (903)
4. Lefty Gomez (900) *
5. Kevin Brown (892)
6. Jack Morris (891)
7. John Candelaria (891)
8. Bob Welch (890)
9. Warren Spahn (881) *
10. Frank Viola (878)

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Since Leena mentioned 1990, here's a list to digest.

 

CAREER
1990-2006

ERA displayed only--not a sorting criteria
WINNING PERCENTAGE displayed only--not a sorting criteria

WINS                             W       ERA      PCT    
1    Greg Maddux                 288     2.95     .636   
2    Randy Johnson               270     3.15     .668   
3    Tom Glavine                 267     3.36     .622   
4    Roger Clemens               253     3.12     .655   
5    Mike Mussina                239     3.63     .641   
6    David Wells                 216     4.10     .614   
7    Curt Schilling              207     3.40     .607   
8    Pedro Martinez              206     2.81     .691   
9    Kenny Rogers                204     4.22     .602   
10   Kevin Brown                 197     3.26     .595   
11   Andy Pettitte               186     3.81     .641   
12   Jamie Moyer                 184     4.10     .599   
13   John Smoltz                 179     3.25     .601   
14   Chuck Finley                170     3.90     .547   
15   Kevin Appier                168     3.69     .558   
16   John Burkett                166     4.31     .550   
T17  Al Leiter                   155     3.75     .556   
T17  David Cone                  155     3.55     .587   
19   Tim Wakefield               151     4.30     .530   
20   Andy Benes                  149     3.99     .523

 

The difficulty for Pettitte is distancing himself from the Wells/Rogers class of pitchers. The raw ERA figures do a surprisingly good job of separating the wheat from the chaff.

 

On an unrelated note, Baseball Reference has begun posting current minor league statistics.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/PH...07_orgpit.shtml

[Guest Queen Leelee]

I did say started after 1990. And there's still none there yet, so nyah. Although, Mussina likely will.

[Dobbs 3K 0]

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/nl...ers-cover_N.htm

 

Nice article on Brewers owner Mark Attanasio.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

If you asked for a list of pitchers ten years ago who started in 1980, you'd have Clemens with 192 wins and then Frank Viola with 176. It's early yet.

[humanoid92 0]

But, how many pitchers whose careers started after 1990 will reach 250 wins? If Pettitte doesn't get in his first few years, he probably will down the line. Mostly due to his postseason "clutchiness" (where his ERA was higher than it was in the regular season, but we won't get into an argument over the importance of wins because the HOF is decided by writers such as Woody Paige.)

 

As for my useless qualifications, I don't believe Pettitte should get in. He had 2 elite seasons out of 12. Hall of Very Good For A Long Time status.

 

And Mussina should without any question, be in.

 

I agree with you on all counts. Pitchers today won't have a shot at 300 wins. After Glavine and maybe Randy Johnson get to #300, we should really start considering 250 as "the new 300." Guys simply don't start as many games as they used to and don't go as deep into games as they used to with all the focus on pitch counts, stricter rotations, and situational middle relievers. In a similar vein, winning 20 games in a season is more impressive now than it's ever been. But no one in the media will realize this.

 

As for Pettitte, for those that believe wins are an overrated statistic and not truly indicative of a pitcher's performance (which it pretty much is), well, Pettitte has pretty much been the ultimate beneficiary of the wins statistic. He's the textbook example. He's a good pitcher that has played on a lot of great teams and benefited because of it by racking up a lot of W's. I don't think he's a Hall of Famer. But if he gets to 250, I'm sure they'll put him in, deserving or not.

 

In Pettitte's first nine years as a Yankee (1995-2003) that he's remembered so fondly for, how many seasons do you think he got his ERA under 4? The answer is four, and two of those seasons he checked in at 3.99 and 3.87. He's had three 19+ win seasons; his ERA in those seasons were 3.87, 4.35, and 4.02. Would he have won 60 games over those three years playing for a different team? Probably not. In the four years from 1998-2001, supposedly his prime and the height of the Yankees success, his ERA was 4.32. In '98 he lost 11 games for a 108 win team. I'm not saying Pettitte is a scrub or anything; just that in my opinion, his place in history by virtue of being on those great Yankee teams has always been highly overvalued.

 

And for those that argue that he's "clutch," that can be disspelled without even debating the fact that it's stupid to account for "clutch games" and "rings." Because for almost every big game that he's pitched well in, there are a lot where he's pitched terribly. Off the top of my head, there's the Cleveland series in '97 and the Angels in '02- both short series in which he was bad and the Yanks were sent home early. There's Atlanta in '99. He had that great game in Atlanta in '96, but people forget he was terrible in Game One of that series. And of course, the big one- Game Six in Arizona in '01. The Yanks have a chance to clinch after all that momentum they built up in the Bronx and Pettitte didn't show up. He was brutal and the Yanks got blown out. People always blame Rivera for blowing it in the 9th inning of Game 7. Well, they could have won it all in Game 6, but Pettitte didn't even give them the chance to be competitive.

 

And I don't think All-Star teams should have a huge bearing on Hall of Fame selections, but it's interesting to note that Pettitte has only made the All-Star game twice ('96 and '01). And that was with the benefit of having his own manager select the reserves five or six times. And nothing against Torre, but it's not like he shied away from picking his own guys.

 

Mussina is an interesting case. Some will throw out the argument that, "if they were never one of the top two or three pitchers in the league at any point, they can't be Hall of Famers because they were never dominant and their numbers can just be attributed to longevity." I can see the reason some people say that, but I think you have to consider the big picture. If that was true and only the dominant guys like Pedro, Clemens, and Maddux got in, then you'd have a pretty strong case against both Mussina and Pettitte. But I believe Mussina is a Hall of Famer. The "almost" stuff is ridiculous. Yeah, he was one out away from being on a world champion, he was one out away from a perfect game, he was one win away from 20. Big deal. Just because Luis Gonzalez and Carl Everett dunked one into the outfield and he's only topped out at 19 wins doesn't detract from an awesome career.

 

You can say what you want about Mussina's credentials, but anyone that argues for Pettitte AND against Mussina at the same time, just because of the rings, is simply wrong. Mussina, hands down, has been a far better pitcher than Pettitte his entire career. If you compare the two, Mussina literally dominates in every imaginable way you want to look at it. Consider the following:

 

Allowing Baserunners:

 

- In 16 years, Mussina's highest WHIP any given year was 1.369 a couple years ago. Pettitte has had a higher WHIP than that five times in his 12 seasons, including last year in Houston. So, pretty much every other year, Pettitte has a higher WHIP than Mussina has EVER had.

 

- Pettitte has gotten his WHIP under 1.20 exactly once in his career (and it was in Houston). Mussina? Eleven times.

 

Allowing Runs:

 

- Mussina's career ERA is 3.64. Pettitte has only had three seasons in which he's posted a lower ERA than that, and one of those was in Houston.

 

- Mussina has had five seasons with an ERA of 3.20 or under. Pettitte has had two, one of which was in Houston.

 

- In six of Pettitte's 12 seasons, his ERA has been 3.99 or over. In only five of Mussina's 16 seasons has his ERA been that high.

 

Control:

 

- Despite starting over 100 more games and logging 900 more innings in his career, Mussina has walked fewer total batters than Pettitte.

 

- Mussina's career high in walks for any season is 69, and that was way above his next high which is only 52. Pettitte has walked more than 69 batters in a season five times.

 

Unhittable:

 

- Mussina has allowed fewer hits than innings pitched twelve times. Pettitte has accomplished this just three times, and two of those were when he was in Houston, and one of them was in a season in which he started only 15 games.

 

Strikeouts:

 

- Pettitte's single-season career high in strikeouts is 180. Mussina has surpassed that six times, including four 200+ strikeout seasons.

 

Durability:

 

- Mussina goes deeper into games on average, with 6.75 IP per start over his career. Pettitte avergaes 6.4 IP per start.

 

- Mussina has nine back-to-back 200+ inning seasons. Pettitte's longest such streak is three.

 

- Mussina has 57 career complete games to Pettitte's 25.

 

- Mussina has 23 career shutouts to Pettitte's four.

 

Wins:

 

- Just to show how much wins are reflected by actual pitching ability, despite all of the above evidence, Mussina and Pettitte have identical winning percentages at .640.

 

- The 2000 season is an example of how misleading wins can be. In that season, Mussina started two more games and logged 33 more innings than Pettitte. Mussina gave up one fewer hit than inning pitched, whereas Pettitte surrendered 14 more hits than innings. Pettitte walked almost twice as many batters. Mussina had 85 more strikeouts. Mussina's WHIP was 1.18 to Pettitte's 1.46. Mussina's ERA was 3.79 to Pettitte's 4.35. Who had the better year? Clearly Mussina. Well, Mussina's record was 11-15 for the 88-loss Orioles, and Pettitte went 19-9 for the first-place Yankees. The Cy Young voting? Pettitte ended up finishing fourth, while Mussina was sixth. The Yankees of course won the World Series that year. And that's a pretty fitting microcosm of their careers. The perception was that Pettitte was a better pitcher, when it simply wasn't true, just as some might perceive now that Pettitte has had a better career, when he simply hasn't.

 

Playoff performance:

 

I don't believe playoff performance should really factor in to this debate because such a small amount of players have the benefit of getting to the playoffs frequently, the way guys like Pettitte and Jeter have. And the current playoff system is still relatively new. Players from the past weren't able to play in 16 playoff games every year. That's why it would drive me nuts when they'd attribute "playoff records" to guys like David Justice and Bernie Williams and act like it meant something. Anyway, if you must compare Mussina and Pettitte in the postseason, you'll find the numbers stay pretty true to their regular season performances. For some reason Mussina gets a raw deal for his "playoff failures" but really, Mussina has been far more consistent than Pettitte in that area. Pettitte has had some great playoff outings, but Mussina has had his share as well. And while Pettitte imploded in quite a few playoff games, Mussina has generally avoided getting lit up.

 

- Career playoff numbers: Pettitte's WHIP is 1.35 and Mussina's is 1.08. Pettitte's ERA is 4.08 and Mussina's is 3.40. Pettitte has given up more hits than innings pitched and Mussina has given up fewer. Mussina averages more innings per start. Mussina has 142 strikeouts in 135 innings (by the way, he's never had more strikeouts than innings in any regular season ever, so you could argue that he has "stepped up" his game for the playoffs) and Pettitte only has 134 strikeouts in 212 innings. But instead, the only numbers some people see is: Pettitte 14-9 to Mussina's 7-8 and Pettitte's four rings to Mussina's zero, which is a stupid way to look at it.

 

I don't want to get too obsessed with statistics here, but in this case they really do tell the whole story. The perception is that Andy Pettitte is a great pitcher and Mike Mussina has never won anything. In reality, Pettitte's a good pitcher but Mike Mussina has been a far superior pitcher his whole career. So if Pettitte is even considered for the Hall of Fame, there's no way you can deny Mussina.

[MFer 0]

Well Pettitte's 3 1/2 years younger than Mussina so maybe he can make up some ground in the next few years.

[humanoid92 0]

Well Pettitte's 3 1/2 years younger than Mussina so maybe he can make up some ground in the next few years.

 

No, that's the thing, he can't.

 

This isn't about "making up ground". Like with hitters, if Player A is three years older than Player B, and has 100 more homers, you could argue that if Player B hits 35 homers a year for the next three years, he could "make up the ground." Fine.

 

But everything I wrote about had nothing to do with racking up career totals. It was based on averages and the ceiling of their performances.

 

The point is Pettitte never has a very good ERA, always walks a lot more guys, never strikes out that many, always allows more hits than innings pitched, etc. In some cases, Mussina's worst performances are better than Pettitte's best. Mussina already has ten or twelve years that have been better than all but a few of Pettitte's. That was the point.

 

So yeah, if Pettitte, at age 35, suddenly has the best three or four years of his career from now until 2010, yeah, he could "catch up". But there's no reason to believe that will happen. Yeah, if he throws up 200+ strikeouts each of the next four years, he'll catch up in that area, but he's never had more than 180 to this point. If he has four straight years with a sub-3.20 ERA, he'll catch up in that area, but again, he's only had two seasons like that his entire career to this point, so that's not very likely.

 

There is overwhelming evidence, over the span of the last twelve years that Mussina is constantly more durable, goes deeper into games, is more unhittable, walks significantly fewer guys, and strikes out significantly more guys. There's no way to "catch up" to all that. Not that WHIP is the end-all, be-all, but just to illustrate an example: The bulk of their careers, and certainly the prime of their careers is over (put it this way: neither one will get better from here on out) and every other year Pettitte's WHIP has been worse than Mussina's single-worst year. How exactly is Pettitte going to "make up ground" in that area?

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

The case for Mussina is simple. In Cy Young voting from 1992-2001 he finished 4th, out, 4th, 5th, 5th, 6th, out, 2nd, 6th, 5th. He established himself as a top five pitcher over the span of a full decade. Whether or not voters get hung up on not reaching 20 wins is a problem, but they have to remember he would have posted 20 in 1994 and '95 if not for the labor dispute. And then there's the winning percentage. Of all the pitchers with 200+ wins, the only pitcher with a better winning percentage than Mussina who's not in the Hall was a 19th century pitcher who staked his claim in the American Association (and less than ten years at that).

[humanoid92 0]

Al, where do you stand on the Pettitte is overrated issue?