UFC 94 - Georges St. Pierre vs. BJ Penn II

[Mik 0]

[Lord of The Curry 0]

Calling the bar tonight to make the reservations for Saturday. Can't wait. Never seen two fighters so hungry for a fight, ever.

[Mik 0]

 

From today's press conference. Pretty intense.

[Youth N Asia 0]

I just wanna see Penn punch his face off so bad...and dammit, I like George

[Burning Pirate Ship Sex 0]

I just wanna see Penn punch his face off so bad...and dammit, I like George

 

Don't hate because GSP's more ballin' then everyone else in the entire universe.

[The Niggardly King 0]

THE RIDDUM looking strictly pimp there.

[The Niggardly King 0]

Rashad should make that Monch song his entrance theme now... shit's epic and matches him.

[Burning Pirate Ship Sex 0]

"I got UFC fighters!"

 

GSP's got the lightheavyweight champ, and top contenders in the lightheavyweight and middleweight divisions. You BJ...not so much.

[Hawkius Maximus 0]

Most of this special was just slow motion shots it felt like.

 

And I swear the ratio for GSP to Penn was pretty skewered. But I didn't see all of it and left the room a few times.

 

I can't honestly say these specials did anything for me. Maybe they did for the average fan, but as someone who doesn't really overly care for either man, it didn't do anything for me. The only thing I came away with is that BJ Penn can talk some serious shit.

[TheDevilAndGodAreRagingInsideMe 0]

Anybody know the name of that song that played at the end of tonight's episode?

[Youth N Asia 0]

I like BJ cause he'll bounce back and forth into different weight classes. People have talked about George going to 185, but he doesn't seem sold on the idea, does he?

[Mik 0]

I think that underwater rock sprint answers once and for all which BJ Penn is coming in to this fight. It was 2 days out of travel and he was in phenomenal shape.

 

Thank God it's going to be both of them at 100%.

[Lei Tong 0]

Why would he want to give up a huge asset in his size and strength advantage at 170?

[The Niggardly King 0]

He's not a real fighter. Just a garbage man champion.

[Your Paragon of Virtue 0]

He wouldn't have the size and strength advantage, but his athleticism would still give him a huge advantage over most middleweights. He would be far quicker than what they're used to, and still pretty damn strong. There's not many guys with the wrestling pedigree and bjj black belt status that he has at 185 either.

[Youth N Asia 0]

Once you dominate a division it's cool to test the waters at a higher weight.

 

People think Ando can dominate the 205ers right now.

 

If GSP can beat the top contenders at 170 then I would love to see him move up. Penn knows he can beat all the light weights, and most of the welterweights.

[Lei Tong 0]

He would benefit from moving from the UFC's deepest division to a somewhat anemic (and wrestler-weak) one, but I think for a guy who enjoys so much of a strength advantage normally, having to suddenly go into the cage with guys coming in the same size or even bigger can't help but be a shellshock, regardless of who you train with. Also, I'm yet to be sold on the idea that GSP's BJJ is all that great, at least until he actually has to show it.

[Youth N Asia 0]

And if he doesn't move then that's fine. Just saying it's a reason I respect Penn as much as I do as a fighter

[RavishingRickRudo 0]

That end montage with both guys in the airport was fucking sick.

[Lei Tong 0]

The way I try to convince myself it's not a big deal is that, IIRC, the last time BJ trained for GSP, he brought in a bunch of top flight talent to help him in camp, but still showed up to the fight looking like a fat asshole. At least this time BJ looks relatively in shape (or as much shape as he can get at welterweight).

[RavishingRickRudo 0]

BJ has looked like a monster in his past few fights, and he has done so by doing the same thing he's doing now. I've seen his training footage in the past and it's fucked. They just stand there and take turns beating the shit out of each other. Training won't be the issue. Cardio and conditioning won't be the issue. Straight up, this fight is about who is better.

[Lei Tong 0]

Eh, I think size & reach will play a pretty big role.

[RavishingRickRudo 0]

That sorta fits in with "who is better". Each guy has different gifts, skills, advantages, over the other guy. Who is able to implement their abilities and neutralize their opponents'. Being big means nothing if you can't use it. Being flexible, being fast, punching hard, taking a punch... etc. Each guy knows what the other brings, who can bring something different, who can deal with what they know and don't know, who fucking knows. That's why this fight is insanely good. Despite the fact the GSP won the first time, that Penn gassed, that Rush's face looked like a horror scene... this is an entirely new fight with new fighters in it. I honestly don't think I'll see a fight like this again for a while.

[Lei Tong 0]

This is a LONG but excellent breakdown of the fight posted in mmajunkie -

 

Performify's Picks for "UFC 94: St. Pierre vs. Penn II"

by Eric Foster on Jan 29, 2009 at 10:35 am ET

 

George St. Pierre -180 (via Bookmaker) vs. BJ Penn +150

 

This eagerly awaited historic rematch is a fan's dream. "Baby Jay" Penn, former welterweight champion and current lightweight champion, heads back to his "natural" weight to finally rematch Georges "Rush" St. Pierre, the reigning UFC welterweight champion who is widely regarded as one of the most complete mixed martial artists on the planet.

 

Their previous encounter, at UFC 58 in March 2006, remains one of MMA's most divisive fights among hardcore fans. Look at the emotionally charged threads active in our MMA Forums for proof (and don't forget to vote in the poll to pick a winner while you're there). At UFC 58 Penn dominated St. Pierre standing in the first round. St. Pierre, though, was exacerbated by an inadvertent eye poke that left him unable to see out of one eye for much of the first round. Penn, notorious for suspect conditioning, spent most of his gas tank in the first round, and St. Pierre did just enough to edge a split decision; one judge saw the fight for Penn, 29-28, while two others saw the contest for St. Pierre, 29-28. The fight was so close that most agree that a single late takedown by St. Pierre in the third round was responsible for stealing the round and securing the split decision.

 

The two return to settle the score from their previous close encounter, and despite the emotional arguments on both sides, we can all agree that regardless if our favorite wins or loses here, we hopefully get a clear-cut winner and not another close split decision that will light up the forums again.

 

St. Pierre (17-2 MMA, 11-2 UFC) is widely regarded as one of the top pound-for-pound fighters in the world, and he has shown marked improvement in every area since winning the split decision over Penn. Since the two last faced off, St. Pierre has grown to be perhaps MMA's most complete fighter. After dominant victories over Josh Koscheck and Jon Fitch, he has arguably become MMA's best wrestler. "Rush" has also improved his Muay Thai skills markedly, has earned his black belt in Brazilian jiu jitsu (under the highly regarded Bruno Fernandes), and has joined one of MMA's best training camps, Greg Jackson's MMA.

 

Since 2005, St. Pierre is 9-1 in the octagon, and his record is only blemished by an anomalous loss to Matt Serra at UFC 69. In the fight, St. Pierre was caught with a looping shot behind his ear, throwing off his balance. Rather than taking the fight to the ground and trying to recover, St. Pierre attempted to stay standing, where he was quickly pounded out by the significant underdog. St. Pierre avenged the loss in a one-sided rematch at UFC 83 in 2008.

 

St. Pierre has grown into the role of one of MMA's best through a phenomenal work ethic and an impressive fight resume consisting of only two losses, both avenged decisively. Penn, on the other hand, is essentially the polar opposite; he's widely regarded as one of the great natural talents in MMA, but a legendary lack of work ethic and a spotty resume (three losses in four fights from 2005 to 2006) have led some to question his ability to compete at the top level of modern MMA.

 

Penn will look to silence those critics on Saturday night. A decisive win over St. Pierre will, without question, cement his legacy as one of the best in MMA history and should silence hosts of critics who question his heart and his commitment to training. At the same time, St. Pierre has a lot riding on the fight as well. He needs to silence those critical of his split-decision victory over Penn as well as put to bed the lingering ghosts of his brutal beating at the hands of Serra. Still, in my opinion, despite the fact that only St. Pierre's welterweight title is on the line for this fight, I believe Penn actually has the most to prove.

 

After consecutive losses in the organization in 2006, Penn (13-4-1 MMA, 9-3-1 UFC) has been reborn in the UFC's lightweight division. He's rebounded from the disappointing 2006 losses to St. Pierre and Hughes by stopping Jens Pulver, Joe Stevenson and then Sean Sherk, the latter fight to claim the UFC's lightweight title. Penn's legions of fans are quick to defend his 2006 losses, and it is important as a handicapper to evaluate each fight in context. As previously mentioned, the previous meeting between these two was a close split-decision loss for Penn, which certainly should be evaluated at a different level compared to a decisive victory (say, St. Pierre's dominant performance besting Fitch).

 

Likewise, Penn's most recent fight against Hughes deserves additional consideration as a handicapper. Regardless of your opinion on what happened, the fight wasn't as one-sided as the outcome would indicate. Penn did decisively win both the first and second rounds of that fight, and the tone of the fight changed significantly in the third round. Many point to the third round as another byproduct of Penn's poor conditioning. I, however, believe Penn when he says that he suffered a rib separation with nearly two minutes left in the second round, when he stretched his body to take Hughes' back. After taking his opponent's back, Penn secured a triangle choke but was unable to finish Hughes.

 

After the round, Penn was unable to walk back to his corner, and he had to be assisted onto his stool. Still, Penn answered the bell for the third round. Keeping his hands low -- as if he wanted to protect his ribs -- Penn was systematically picked apart on his feet, and he dropped down to the mat less than two minutes into the round to avoid the damage. On the mat, Hughes landed several shots to Penn's ribs and was then able to pass to side control, where he forced referee "Big" John McCarthy to stop the fight by pounding Penn's face in the crucifix position.

 

Penn detractors will point to his legendary lack of cardio as the reason for the marked dropoff in his performance after the second round. To answer those critics, Penn literally posted a doctor's note from an independent medical professional confirming the rib injury on his website after the fight. But later, as he wrote in his excellent book "Mixed Martial Arts: the Book of Knowledge," Penn acknowledged that his lack of training and focus was ultimately responsible for the loss. Penn wrote, "I blamed the loss on a freak accident in the coming days, but I now realize that's not what happened. I lost the fight due to improper conditioning. I was in excellent cardiovascular condition, but I wasn't in perfect physical condition. The reason I say this is because I hadn't focused on being the best athlete I could every day of the year. ... My rib broke not because I was unlucky, but rather because I hadn't stayed in flawless fighting shape year-round. If I had been doing 5,000 sit-ups every day and eating healthy meals every time I sat down at the table, my rib would most likely have held fast."

 

Penn's written acknowledgment is a hopeful indication that he has changed his outlook on training. Unfortunately, despite Penn's words and even despite the level of access to his training camp via the "UFC Primetime" shows, Penn's actual level of focus and conditioning is still the great unanswered question coming into this fight. Penn is a perfect 3-0 since and has looked strong in all three fights. However, only the fight against Sherk went out of the second round, and that fight ended after the third. While the Sherk fight seemed to indicate that Penn's conditioning had indeed improved markedly, as Penn looked energized through a full three rounds, we still haven't seen "The Prodigy" pushed to the level that St. Pierre will undoubtedly maintain for this fight. One thing is sure; we should have a definitive answer to the question of Penn's conditioning come Saturday night.

 

While Penn's conditioning may be somewhat unknown, breaking down the rest of this fight is relatively straightforward. St. Pierre has a tremendous edge in wrestling, and he has the advantage in size, in strength and in Muay Thai skills. Even in the event Penn comes in well prepared to go 25 minutes, St. Pierre still has an edge in overall athleticism and in cardio. As a result, St. Pierre is also faster in the ring, both in strikes and in transitions. St. Pierre should also have the edge in intangibles; with Greg Jackson in his corner, he should have a superior game plan coming in and superior ability to change tactics between rounds.

 

Across the cage, Penn has the overall advantage in striking. He's perhaps the best boxer in MMA and has an iron chin. He's never been knocked down let alone knocked out in his career, and the only time he has even been finished was the aforementioned referee stoppage against Hughes at UFC 63, under the veil of injury. Penn has the overall advantage in both submission offense and defense. While St. Pierre recently earned his BJJ black belt, Penn is on another level with some of the best pure jiu-jitsu skills anywhere and numerous prestigious grappling tournament wins under his belt. Some people will argue that Penn does not translate his world-class jiu-jitsu skills into the octagon as effectively as one would expect. I disagree. Jiu jitsu isn't just about submitting your opponent. Penn's jiu-jitsu skills come into play in almost every fight -- via things like sweeps and positioning -- even in fights where he didn't win by submission.

 

Much has been said about the size and reach discrepancy between the two fighters. While St. Pierre is much more muscular and will have a significant weight and strength advantage on fight night (Penn doesn't really cut to reach 170, and St. Pierre cuts about 15 pounds), the height and reach advantage is not quite as significant as many seem to think. According to the tale of the tape from their first fight, St. Pierre was 5-10 with a 76-inch reach, and Penn was 5-9 with a 73-inch reach. In his fight against Sherk, Penn was listed at 5-9 with a 70-inch reach. Either way, St. Pierre definitely has a few inches of reach advantage, but it's not insurmountable.

 

Despite St. Pierre's edge in reach and speed, I do believe Penn will have the overall edge while the fight is standing. Penn can neutralize the reach advantage with his superior head movement and boxing skills. Penn can neutralize the speed advantage in much the same way Fedor Emelianenko approached Andrei Arlovski -- by trying to slip or block the speed shots but ultimately by being willing to absorb a jab or one-two combination as long as he gets to throw a power shot in return. In MMA, we've seen time and time again that accuracy and power plus an iron chin can generally outdo pure speed, and I expect to see that play out here.

 

Despite having a serious striking edge over both Hughes and Fitch on paper, St. Pierre ended up taking both opponents down consistently, and he wanted no part of Serra standing in their second bout. Penn's boxing skills, great head movement and iron chin should allow him to come out ahead in exchanges if he can close the gap and force St. Pierre to trade shots. Despite St. Pierre's great Muay Thai skills, Penn generally had the edge in the clinch in their first fight and can likely do more damage with dirty boxing inside. However, Penn has to be worried about St. Pierre's explosive takedowns and effective level changes.

 

As such, I expect Jackson's game plan for St. Pierre to look mostly similar to his past three victories. I expect St. Pierre to push the pace of the fight from the very beginning with the obvious intention to drag Penn into the later rounds and test his cardio. He should look to utilize his overall reach and speed advantages to keep the fight at range, and to score from outside with effective kicks and fast punches. St. Pierre will look to leverage his overall edge in athleticism and wrestling, and try to overcome Penn's great takedown defense (primarily due to his incredible flexibility) by exploding with takedowns when Penn moves forward to close the gap. I expect St. Pierre to look to put Penn on his back early and often, and to try to utilize his dominant top game to wear Penn down.

 

Penn needs to take St. Pierre out of his element as soon as possible. Penn will have to effectively check St. Pierre's leg kicks early and overcome the discrepancy in speed, close the gap and score with his own shots. Penn's most likely path to victory is putting St. Pierre on the defensive. If he can land power shots early and force "Rush" to retreat, he can get the fight to the ground in a dominant position where St. Pierre will be in trouble.

 

Penn's takedown defense isn't comprised of a superb sprawl. Instead, he more frequently allows his opponent to grab a single leg, and he then uses his incredible flexibility and balance to remain standing, where he can then try to counter the takedowns with technique or punish his opponent with dirty boxing to the point he abandons the takedown. Still, looking at St. Pierre's athleticism and wrestling skills, I think he is going to be able to put Penn on the mat early and often.

 

In my opinion, this fight will be determined by Penn's ability to pressure St. Pierre right away and get him off balance. If he can't put St. Pierre on the defensive right away, St. Pierre will be able to put Penn on his back. There, the fight will be determined by St. Pierre's top game vs. Penn's ability to sweep or submit from his back. Penn has the jiu jitsu and the flexibility to counter takedowns and top control early, but he desperately needs to bring in the appropriate conditioning to make St. Pierre uncomfortable on top in latter rounds.

 

As a handicapper, a couple factors sway me toward Penn in this fight. He's never been stopped other than the TKO to Hughes (which I believe is offset by the injury), and he has the ability to finish fights with his powerful and accurate striking as well as his incredible technique on the ground. St. Pierre, conversely, wasn't able to finish either Fitch or Koscheck despite dominating both opponents for the full duration of both fights. I think the only likely path to a stoppage victory for St. Pierre is if Penn burns out his gas tank in the first few rounds and St. Pierre can finish him via TKO in the fourth or fifth. Otherwise, any early ending heavily favors Penn, in my opinion. However, the five-round-championship-fight format generally favors St. Pierre in going to decision since he can drop the first two rounds and still have a clear path to victory by winning the last three.

 

So for me, handicapping the outcome of the fight depends on evaluating Penn's cardio and the probability of an early finish. I expect Penn to have the fire to win the first and second rounds most of the time, and even if he is in optimal condition, I think St. Pierre's speed and athleticism (and the general difficulty in submitting or reversing an opponent once he beocomes slick with sweat) becomes too much for Penn in the latter rounds.

 

As such, in terms of a decision, I think the fight will most often be decided by who wins the third round. In their first fight, despite gassing heavily, Penn still wasn't dominated on the feet in later rounds; he lost due to St. Pierre's takedowns and ground control. Despite St. Pierre's wide range of improvements since their first bout, I think we'll see the fight play out suprisingly predictably. If Penn gets a dominant position in any of the first few rounds, he can finish. And if if Penn can come in sufficiently conditioned to edge the third round after winning the first two, I think St. Pierre cannot win the fight and will be fighting for at a draw at best, due to his likely inability to put Penn away with any significant probability unless Penn gasses completely late in the match.

 

So unless St. Pierre can successfully overwhelm Penn early and win one of the first two rounds with takedowns and top control -- which I don't expect with significant probability due to Penn's jiu-jitsu skills creating reversals, escapes and potential submissions -- I think St. Pierre will be looking at a 48-47 or 49-46 victory in most outcomes where he wins. Still, I think St. Pierre is walking a razor thin line in this fight, one where a single mistake in the first three rounds will cost him the entire fight. Penn, on the other hand, with his finishing ability and his comfort wherever the fight goes, won't likely lose on a single early mistake.

 

The current betting line puts St. Pierre at approximately a 64% favorite. I estimate the fight is closer, at a 60/40 split for St. Pierre, making the "true" line for the fight +/-150. The early line favored St. Pierre more heavily, with Penn available at up to +185. At the current odds, I think Penn at +150 is fair value and St. Pierre slightly overpriced, so my recommendation based on the current odds is Penn. If the line continues to decline, I'd look to play St. Pierre at -150 or below. But my official prediction? B.J. Penn by submission set up by strikes in the second round.

[Lt. Al Giardello 0]

Let's hear the Mexican Bouncer Jiu Jitzu mastah's breakdown of the fights

[Lord of The Curry 0]

Tong has made his GSP dislike known. No way that's a balanced assessment.

[Lt. Al Giardello 0]

Tong has made his GSP dislike known. No way that's a balanced assessment.

Regardless I wanna hear his view on Karo/Kim, Jones/Bonnar, and Guida/Diaz.

[Lei Tong 0]

Tong has made his GSP dislike known. No way that's a balanced assessment.

 

The breakdown I posted? It's actually pretty well put-together, and though I don't agree with all of it, it's easily one of the best breakdowns I've read on any fight. It's also especially good in the way it breaks down the odds for the fight. The irony is that I actually disagree with the guy's pick for the fight: I'm leaning towards GSP via Unanimous JD. Of course, I'm rooting heavily for BJ and will gloat endlessly should he win.

 

If you simply assumed I posted a fluff piece about BJ, or if that's how the article comes off for you... well, I guess I'd be a bit disappointed that you're letting your GSP love cloud your vision like that.

[Lt. Al Giardello 0]

Are you going to breakdown the fights or what you useless tit!

[Lt. Al Giardello 0]