This Week In Baseball: 9/22-9/30

[Smartly Pretty 0]

If Lidge blows this save, I'm going to be so excited. He'll be a nervous wreck the entire postseason. It'll be glorious.

 

EDIT: I'm just unbelievable today.

[strummer 0]

Philles clinch the NL East

 

one spot left

[snuffbox 0]

Game was getting fun for a second there. Can't have that.

[Bruiser Chong 0]

They still have to be the favorites going into tomorrow. They'll have CC hurling against KEVIN HART. Plus the Mets are sending Perez out on three days rest when he wasn't even very good during his last start.

[Slayer 0]

What the hell, Twins? You can sweep the White Sox, but can't put away the Royals in your home park?

[Mik 0]

Don't worry Brewers fans. The Marlins have got your back for tomorrow.

[snuffbox 0]

Doubt it.

 

CC's on his third straight three-day-rest game. Also, this is Milwaukee we're talking about. They're the Best Friend of organized sport.

[Bruiser Chong 0]

Such optimism!

[snuffbox 0]

Is there some reason why I should be optimistic about this team? Because I'm a fan I should think they'll succeed despite the fact that they haven't in my entire lifetime?

[Matt Young 0]

What the hell, Twins? You can sweep the White Sox, but can't put away the Royals in your home park?

 

Now, if only the Sox could fucking win a game.

 

[Guest C*Z*E*C*H]

Their lineup has really taken a hit since Carlos Quentin decided to bring back the fire and the passion of a certain erstwhile White Sock and broke his damn wrist. It also didn't help that Ozzie went up to the Metrodome with its giant outfield and fast turf, and put Ken Griffey Jr. in the lineup instead of Brian Anderson or DeWayne Wise* because he couldn't "show up" Kenny Williams and his big deadline acquisition. Sometimes we only have ourselves to blame.

 

*The time has come when Ken Griffey Jr. ought to be benched for fringe major leaguer DeWayne Wise. I want to cry.

 

EDIT: fun fact: the White Sox built a statue of Juan Uribe. If the Cubs win a championship and celebrate by erecting a statue of Ronny Cedeno, take it back, I don't want it.

[jimmy no nose 0]

Lost due to it being a completely meaningless game was our first case of instant replay weirdness last night. Bengie Molina hit one off the wall in San Francisco that was ruled a single. They went to video review and during the time in between they decided to pull Molina for a pinch runner. Since Molina was removed from the game pinch runner Emanuel Burriss had to run from first to home and Molina was out of the game. Molina got the homer and both RBIs, but didn't get credit for the run scored. I guess nobody thought that situation through.

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?mid=200809273558279

[Guest Smues]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but with both the Sox and Twins losing again today, that means that unless the Twins win tomorrow and the Sox lose, that Chicago will have to play Detroit on Monday? Awesome. And if the Brewers and Mets both win or lose tomorrow we'll get a playoff between them as well? There's only one September!

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Shouldn't have built a "sports complex." That whole thing looks like ass, even without Veterans Stadium.

 

I know neighborhood parks are generally preferable, but it is unbelieveably convenient as an out of towner (I drive two hours to the park, so public transit is not a realistic option)

.

Hey aren't you the one always bitching about how when games start too late and you gotta wake up early in the morning, all that? Come on, you got what you wished for.

 

7pm start times are the most convenient, they don't run late and they don't conflict with work. It's games starting at 830-9 that become a problem. The issue here though is that they changed the start time with less than a week's notice.

 

Unbelieveable experience though. Without that double play, Lidge blows his first save of the season. A very emotional and exciting experience.

[devo 0]

Brought back to a tied record thanks in part to a phenomenal start. Final game against the Marlins. Beleaguered lefty on the mound for the Mets.

 

Have I forgotten anything? This is so similar to last year that I'm almost expecting another another seven run one out performance. Maybe Castro's Grand Slam will clear the wall this time.

[Bruiser Chong 0]

The AL brackets could be set in stone if the Twins had one either games in this series thus far. I think it's asking a lot for the White Sox to get swept, so unless Twins lose today, I can't see how there won't be a game on Monday.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Having watched the highlight shows, they really gloss over that Phillies' win. Especially the ninth inning, which was excruciating. The Phillies had a 4-2 lead, but four of the first five Nationals reached base. If Rollins doesn't come up with that ball, the Nats take the lead. If not the double play, it's tied. And from my vantage, it REALLY looked like it was going up the middle.

 

I don't know who did the television announcing. They took the final out and sucked out all the drama Joe Buck would have infused, if that is humanly possible. That is a big reason you rarely hear classic sport calls anymore. Because any big moment is called by neutral announcers on national television. Harry Kalas may be losing his marbles, but he can still call a big moment.

[the pinjockey 0]

It was McCarver on his own, as Tom McCarthy (who was his partner for the day) went down to the field in the middle of the 9th for celebration interviews. So hard to throw too much on him as he was clearly out of his element.

[CanadianChris 0]

Small subplots to otherwise unimportant games this afternoon:

 

- The Angels try to win 100 games for the first time in franchise history against the Rangers.

 

- Mike Mussina goes for the first 20-win season of his career against the Red Sox in game 1 of their doubleheader.

 

- Randy Johnson goes for career win no. 295 against the Rockies.

 

- James Shields will attempt to set a new Rays franchise record for wins with his 15th this afternoon against the Tigers.

[garfieldsnose 0]

Having watched the highlight shows, they really gloss over that Phillies' win. Especially the ninth inning, which was excruciating. The Phillies had a 4-2 lead, but four of the first five Nationals reached base. If Rollins doesn't come up with that ball, the Nats take the lead. If not the double play, it's tied. And from my vantage, it REALLY looked like it was going up the middle.

 

I don't know who did the television announcing. They took the final out and sucked out all the drama Joe Buck would have infused, if that is humanly possible. That is a big reason you rarely hear classic sport calls anymore. Because any big moment is called by neutral announcers on national television. Harry Kalas may be losing his marbles, but he can still call a big moment.

 

 

Agreed. They don't really show much of that 9th inning, which was really the major point of the game. I'd rather them not show how it got to 4-2 and just go straight to the 9th inning if they needed to save time or whathaveyou. I was at my sister's apartment and was never nervous until the bases were loaded. I actually thought Chase's throw was going to be high because he had to rush it so quickly, but he made a great throw, and another great play by Rollins. I don't know what Jimmy's problem has been this season; he has had a big attitude problem it seems, and rarely runs out a popup anymore. I was listening to the game on the radio when I was driving to my sister's and Larry Andersen, who likes pointing out some things that you would otherwise not really notice, said Rollins was jogging down the first base line with the bat in his hand the whole time. I don't know if it was a popup, foul ball, or what, but he never used to do things like that. I loved seeing him happy after the win, but I have to wonder what exactly was his problem this season.

[cabbageboy 0]

In regards to the Angels I remember something Al said here about the Yankees in 2004 when they were 101-61, but their Pythagorean W-L was only 89-73, that they had significantly outperformed their numbers and it would eventually come back to bite them. Right now the Angels have a Pythagorean W-L of 87-74, which is 12 games worse than their actual record. The Twins and White Sox are both in that same area in both actual record and Pythagorean W-L (both are roughly 87-88 win teams), while the Rays and Red Sox are both better (Tampa's expected W-L is 91-70, Boston 95-65 as of now). Mind you, this isn't the end all be all but if you look at the stats the Red Sox are still the best team in the AL.

 

The NL?

 

Chicago: 97-63 (Pythagorean 98-62, so the Cubs are right about where they should be)

Philly: 91-70 (Pythagorean 92-69, again right near where they should be)

LA Dodgers: 84-77 (Pythagorean 86-75, lost a couple they shouldn't have but in the same ballpark)

NY Mets: 89-72 (Pythagorean 89-72, so they are exactly what they are)

Milwaukee: 89-72 (Pythagorean 87-74, nearly the same, maybe won a couple they shouldn't have)

 

I'll say Red Sox vs. Rays for the ALCS and Cubs/Phillies for the NLCS.

[garfieldsnose 0]

Explain the pythagorean records a little more, kind of intrigued by that and never really heard of it except in passing.

[Smartly Pretty 0]

I don't really see the value in Pythagorean W-L records. I find them very interesting, but I never know what to do with the information.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

The pythagorean record is an estimate of how many games a team should have won based on their runs scored and runs allowed. It is named as such because it closely resembles the pythagorean formula (runs^2/(runs^2 + runs allowed^2)). This formula is far from perfect, as the exponent should be closer to 1.8, and has been adapted as such by stat teams like Baseball Prospectus.

 

In simple terms, a team outperforming their P-W/L would regress in the future, either in a first half/second half split or the following season. Conversely, an underperforming team would be likely to play better in the future. Essentially, the quality of the team is a function of their ability to score runs and prevent runs, and that is not always reflected in the team's actual winning percentage.

 

Although it is important to understand this formula, there are significant flaws. Since it regresses so heavily to the mean, good teams on the whole outperform their W/L and bad teams underperform. Also teams that deviate from the normal run-scoring environment often can change their expected outcomes (like the Angels, who play in an inordinate amount of close games that they win because of mediocre offense and a good bullpen).

[garfieldsnose 0]

That is pretty interesting. Thank you for explaining that in detail. It is much appreciated.

[Smartly Pretty 0]

This is such bullshit. I'm blacked out of TBS' broadcast of the Mets/Marlins game because I live in Florida, but FSN Florida is broadcasting the Rays game. So I don't get to watch the Mets last game at Shea. Blackout rules are fucking retarded. Fuck this.

 

EDIT: You know what, I think I actually prefer listening to this game on radio. I just listened to Howie Rose, who I love, interview Bud Harrelson, who I love.

[Smartly Pretty 0]

You know, I think a lot of these Marlins really hate the Mets. Not like, divisional rival hate, I mean I think Mike Jacobs genuinely disdains the New York Mets. Maybe because of all the Met fans who show up in Miami.

[garfieldsnose 0]

Not surprising. I know Scott Olsen has said various times how much he hates the Phillies, the city of Philadelphia, and their fans. It used to get under my skin, but the Marlins aren't in the playoffs so I guess it doesn't bother me as much anymore.

[Bruiser Chong 0]

So we've got four teams involved in four separate games battling for two playoff spots. Three of those are currently two-run games, while the other is a one-run affair. How can you not love this?

[Bruiser Chong 0]

Beltran ties it up on a huge homer. Meanwhile, the Brewers have one hit through six innings, but the Cubs have only managed the one unearned run. This is looking like we're in store for a down-to-the-wire finish in both games.