Well, if it split into 3 parts, from what I understand, the Sunni part would be an oil-less, impoverished, hellhole and a major potential breeding ground for terrorism.
Fair enough, but your telling me that the Sunnis couldn't create an economy on anything other than oil? Why is it that the Middle East as a whole has a stereotype of the "oil or nothing" economy? After all, Islamic civilization used to be @ the forefront of scientific advances, but after the Mongols swept through there centuries ago they've gone backward whereas the West went forward.
I'm not saying that they can't build an economy without oil, just that they definitely won't want to. And I doubt that they would be happy with being left without oil.