Mik 0 Report post Posted February 11, 2007 I wouldn't get too excited. Teams are throwing money out the window, but they seem loathe to part with good prospects. Also, I'd be STUNNED if Volstad made the Majors this season. Yeah - obviously it all depends on how he performs in the minors this upcoming season. When he was drafted, they said the timetable was late 2007/early 2008. He didn't put up amazing stats last year but his peripherals were solid and scouts raved about his makeup and mechanics. Who knows. As for prospects, I think a player like Dontrelle could bring in a king's ransom. Talent withstanding, his personality could play huge in a big city...especially since he was found not guilty of his DUI. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
naiwf 0 Report post Posted February 12, 2007 It looks like Kris Benson's out for the year with a torn rotator cuff so that Mets trade doesn't like quite as bad a year later, as he's due $7.5 million for what amounts to nothing this season. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
HarleyQuinn 0 Report post Posted February 12, 2007 According to here: http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/sports/16671903.htm Here is how the Marlins lineup will look... 1: Hanley Ramirez 2: Dan Uggla 3: Miguel Cabrera 4: Josh Willingham 5: Jeremy Hermida 6: Mike Jacobs 7: Miguel Olivo 8: Winner of the CF Spot 9: Pitcher John Doe Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Guest Oedipus Rex Report post Posted February 12, 2007 It looks like Kris Benson's out for the year with a torn MRI You think that's bad? I have a strained CT scan. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
snuffbox 0 Report post Posted February 12, 2007 Family Guy rocks. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MarvinisaLunatic 0 Report post Posted February 13, 2007 I had hoped it was only a rumor, possibly just a joke, but it appears that it's not. According to various sources a week or so ago, the Astros were 'flirting' with Steve Trachsel. It appears in the course of this flirting, the Astros' were passed, by Trachsel, a drink laced with roofies, as they are 'close' to him to a deal, not, mind you, a NRI deal, but a fully loaded one-year contract to hold down the back end of the rotation. Apparently, Steve Trachsel was reciting epic Italian love poems to get the Astros to sign him after a season where he had a K/BB rate of almost 1:1 and an ERA of nearly 5, despite pitching half his games in the cavernous Shea Stadium. I applauded the Carlos Lee and Woody Williams signings; I eventually came around on the Jennings trade; I was nearly orgasmic at the signing of Mark Loretta, but I will, in no way, endorse the signing of Steve Trachsel. I can only assume that Drayton McClane figures that all games started by Trachsel will take at least 5 hours to finish due to his dilatory pitching style and he can sell more concessions in 5 hours than he can in 3 hours, but, honestly, will Steve Trachsel be that much of an upgrade over Matt Albers or Chris Sampson or Fernando Nieve? I think not. Well, at least someone's gonna be happy to hear this: Having learned earlier today that starting pitcher Kris Benson will likely have surgery for a partially torn rotator cuff in his right shoulder, the Orioles have moved fast to fill the hole in the rotation, agreeing in principle to a deal with free agent pitcher Steve Trachsel, according to a baseball source. The deal, which will pay the 36-year-old right-hander between $3 and $3.5 million, is pending a physical, which could happen as early as today, the source said. Trachsel has a 134-143 career record and a 4.28 ERA in 13 big league seasons. Trachsel was 15-8 with a 4.97 ERA for the New York Mets last season but saw his stock in free agency drop significantly because of two poor outings in the playoffs. He gave up six hits and two earned runs in 3 1/3 innings in the Mets' Game Three win over the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League Division Series and then surrendered five hits, five walks and five earned runs in one inning in New York's Game Three loss to the St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Championship Series. If the deal becomes official, Trachsel will compete with prospects Hayden Penn and Garrett Olson for the No. 5 spot in the rotation. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CanadianChris 0 Report post Posted February 13, 2007 Trachsel in the AL? Seriously? He's not going to make it out of spring training. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Styles 0 Report post Posted February 13, 2007 It looks like Kris Benson's out for the year with a torn rotator cuff so that Mets trade doesn't like quite as bad a year later, as he's due $7.5 million for what amounts to nothing this season. Oh shit! I just saw this now. This actually makes trading Rodrigo Lopez a poor move, but who knew in retrospect? They've signed Steve Trachsel as a quick replacement. On the bright side, if there is such a thing, maybe Hayden Penn gets a chance to join the rotation now. Jaret Wright better have a good season though or we're in trouble. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
vivalaultra 0 Report post Posted February 13, 2007 I'm freakin' estatic that Steve Trachsel is going to Baltimore. He would've been bad enough at MMP; I can just imagine how bad he's gonna be in the AL East. The only free agent pitcher left on the market that I hope the Astros consider is Mark Redman. He's not great, but he's a lefty and better than Wandy Rodriguez. He'd be worth at least an invite to Spring Training or a couple million dollars for a year to hold down the #4 spot in the rotation. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MarvinisaLunatic 0 Report post Posted February 13, 2007 Bedard/Cabrera/Wright/Loewen/Penn or Trachsel or Olson LOL at the veteran leader on the staff being Jaret Wright (and the only over 30 guy in the rotation) if Trachsel doesn't make it into the rotation. Ive heard some positive things about Olson but I dont think hes ready yet considering his highest experience was 1/2 year of AA ball last year. Hes a lefty though..and a k/9ip ratio of 9.04 in 220 innings over 2 full seasons in the minors. Improving the bullpen might have been the best thing they could have done given the lack of experience in the rotation. Trading Lopez now in hindsight was bad but it'll give guys like Penn and Loewen a shot. Trachsel just provides some insurance in case either of them don't pan out (Im much higher on Adam Loewen than Hayden Penn but I think Penn has a lot more upside) Wright is 31, Bedard is 27, Cabrera is 25, Penn and Loewen are 22 (AVG age = 25, anyone know where that ranks with other teams) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Styles 0 Report post Posted February 13, 2007 They're paying him 3.5 million. I think Trachsel is the 5th guy. Dcab as our #2 and Loewen #3 is frightening. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
geniusMoment 0 Report post Posted February 13, 2007 Chicago might have a problem http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2763803 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CanadianChris 0 Report post Posted February 13, 2007 Best part of that article: "If they don't sign me, sorry, but I must go. That's what Carlos Zambrano thinks." Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cheech Tremendous 0 Report post Posted February 13, 2007 If Barry Zito can get $126 million, I shudder to think what Carlos Zambrano might get. He might get $150. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
vivalaultra 0 Report post Posted February 13, 2007 He should just go Rickey Henderson and speak in the 3rd person all the time. So, who's gonna be worth more in 2010...Carlos Zambrano or Alfonso Soriano? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
snuffbox 0 Report post Posted February 13, 2007 I hope he stays in Chicago. He's really good and all but often seems to struggle against Milwaukee. His frustration is always a hoot. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cheech Tremendous 0 Report post Posted February 13, 2007 He should just go Rickey Henderson and speak in the 3rd person all the time. So, who's gonna be worth more in 2010...Carlos Zambrano or Alfonso Soriano? Although personally I don't think much of Soriano as a player, I would never give a big, long-term deal to a pitcher. There are too many variables to assess, whereas you generally know what you're getting out of Soriano for the next 5 years. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cheech Tremendous 0 Report post Posted February 13, 2007 Here are some excerpts from the MIT Sports Business Conference. The panel included Rob Neyer, Jamie McCourt, JP Ricciardi and Bill James, who are generally regarded as some of the brightest minds in the business. Question #1: The best minds in baseball have always thought analytically. How has that changed in recent years? ROB NEYER: It's a combination of a couple of things (at least), including great work inspired by Bill James over the last twenty years. A lot of people in the game today grew up reading him, or reading people who read him. And the other thing is that the ownership has turned over almost completely in the last 20 years. There was no way that people like Clark Griffith would embrace analytics. Griffith grew up in baseball and didn't want people telling him how to run his team. Today there are owners who used analytics to make their money, John Henry being perhaps the best example. I think that's the big difference. They don't want a general manager who just tells them what; they want somebody who also tells them why, and it's a lot easier to do that with objective analysis. JAMIE MCCOURT: I think that analytics are being redefined. People were already collecting statistics, but Moneyball broadcast sabermetrics to an audience that didn’t realize the importance of a lot of them. I look at analytics as being more than just statistics, though. Stats can be a tipping point, but they’re like carrots in a carrot stew. They’re just one ingredient. BILL JAMES: If you ever talked to Tom Seaver. . .nobody is more analytical than Seaver. He breaks everything down very systematically, very scientifically. Branch Rickey was certainly analytical, but Branch Rickey was a genius. Genius is not contagious. What is different now is that we have analytical methods, based on research, which can be used by anyone who takes the time to learn the methods. You can't really study Branch Rickey and acquire Branch Rickey's knowledge. But you can study sabermetrics and pick up a hundred or 200 ways to analyze different questions. Question #2: Has the internet had more impact on baseball insiders, or on fans? ROB NEYER: I'm actually a little discouraged in how little fans have changed. If you ask a cross section of fans to vote who was better, Jim Palmer or Nolan Ryan, probably 85 percent would say Ryan. Maybe that means I haven't done my job very well over the last 11 years. I think that a lot of what fans pay attention to is more related to fantasy baseball than real baseball. There was fantasy baseball before the Web, but it's obviously a lot easier now. So I think insiders have been impacted more, at least in the positive sense. One thing that's happened is that the flow of information has been enhanced. Twenty years ago, Bill James would correspond with people like Craig Wright and John Dewan via the United States Postal Service. Which worked fine, but it was of course slow. Now everybody can share their ideas at the speed of light. JAMIE MCCOURT: This is pretty subjective, because I’ve never really thought about it before, but I think fans have been impacted quite a bit. Not only do they have a lot more access to metrics, they also have more real time access to information. I don’t know that I can really make a comparison, but the Dodgers front office is very aware of the information and analytics that are available. BILL JAMES: The internet is part of the air we breathe. It's like asking whether the air is more important to one species than to another. A few quotes from the presentations and panel discussions: BILL JAMES ON PROPRIETARY RESEARCH: "There’s a real limit to how much good work you can do in a closet. One thing that changed when I started working for the Red Sox is that I’d talk to Theo and John Henry, but couldn’t run out and talk to other people as I always had. Science is conversation. Knowledge is community property. When you cut yourself off from that, you lose something. If you respect (confidentiality) too much, it’s like your thumbs have been cut off. You can’t go anywhere." JAMES ON SIGNING PLAYERS TO LONG-TERM CONTRACTS: "Long-term decision making is antithetical to human nature. If you go out on a date with a girl and she has bad breath, or he has bad breath, you don’t look at it as a small sample size. You move along. If you go to a restaurant and your food is bad, you don't go back four or five times to get more data. If a player comes up from the minors and struggles, people want to move on. That's just natural. I always see it as being my role to argue for the longer-term view, maybe suggest some mouthwash." JAMES ON SABERMETRIC ANALYSIS: “People who don’t understand what we do think it all has to do with details. But it’s not about what a left-handed hitter hits against a certain team under a full moon. The opposite is true. What analytics are is stepping back and looking at the bigger picture.” J.P. RICCIARDI ON THE DRAFT AND SIGNING INTERNATIONAL PLAYERS: “When we draft, we do it for need and cost effectiveness, and to help our team. We don’t care if Baseball America doesn’t rate our draft highly. That’s not our goal. We know which players we like.” “I wish Major League Baseball would go to an international draft so we could compete with teams like New York and Boston. That way you could draft for talent rather than an ability to sign them.” RICCIARDI ON STATISTICAL ANALYSIS AND PLAYER ACQUISITIONS: “It’s important to value statistics, but you also need to value the information gathering of your scouts. For instance, is a player an American League East kind of guy? It takes a mentally tough player not to crumble when he walks into a place like Yankee Stadium.” “We had every statistical breakdown possible when we signed Kerry Ligtenberg. We did our due diligence, but he stunk anyway. Kerry is a great guy, but he didn’t do the job for us.” “With Scott Schoeneweis, we did every possible breakdown and saw him as a situational guy; more of a left-handed specialist. We told Scott Boras that; that we weren’t looking at him as a starter. We were able to sign him, and he was very effective for us.” “Frank Catalanotto had four great years for us. His on-base-percentage is a lot better than most people realize. He was a gift that kept giving, but ultimately we weren’t able to re-sign him.” “I’m glad I don’t run the Giants. From a baseball standpoint I think (Barry Bonds) is probably a good signing. From an ethical standpoint, I’ll pass.” “Sometimes you have to take a step back and not talk yourself out of someone by looking at too much information. You need to say, ‘This guy is a pretty good player.’” “Sandy Alderson is the guy I’d tip my hat to. He was like Socrates. He was always asking why.” Although there is nothing ground breaking here, I am glad that the Sox ended up with Theo instead of Ricciardi. He's done a fair job in Toronto (heck, he won more games last year on a smaller budget) but he doesn't seem to have a great baseball mind. There seems to be too much old time chicanery in his quotes for someone supposedly into the statistical revolution. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
vivalaultra 0 Report post Posted February 13, 2007 He should just go Rickey Henderson and speak in the 3rd person all the time. So, who's gonna be worth more in 2010...Carlos Zambrano or Alfonso Soriano? Although personally I don't think much of Soriano as a player, I would never give a big, long-term deal to a pitcher. There are too many variables to assess, whereas you generally know what you're getting out of Soriano for the next 5 years. Generally, I'd agree, but Zambrano's a different kind of animal. He's been both healthy and durable since he came up in 01 and he's one of the few certifiable, no-doubt aces in the NL. On top of that, he's only going to be 25. I think the Cubs would be completely braindead if they didn't sign hiim to at least a three year deal. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cheech Tremendous 0 Report post Posted February 13, 2007 He's going to want 7 or 8 years though. I have no doubt he will be great in 2010, but he will laugh his way to free agency if you offer him just 3 or 4 years. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Guest Report post Posted February 13, 2007 I'd find it hard to give him a long-term deal based on what's happened to all of the other Cubs pitchers while Dusty was around. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
vivalaultra 0 Report post Posted February 13, 2007 Yeah, he'd probably laugh at a 3 year deal, and rightfully so. Still, if the Cubs could sign him for a Roy Oswalt-esque deal 6 yrs./$73 million they should jump on it, even though I think Roy wanted to stay in Houston more than Big Z wants to stay in Chicago. As a general rule, once they start talking in the 3rd person, they're harder to sign. If I were the Cubs, I'd even go up to a 7 year Barry Zito-like deal. I'm sure they've already eliminated any semblance of a hometwon discount by not getting something done a few months ago, but if they lose Zambrano, they're rotation is going to be pretty not good. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
naiwf 0 Report post Posted February 13, 2007 That Oswalt deal looks like chump change right now. Zambrano would want at least an extra $40 million over that length of time before even stepping to the negotitating table. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cheech Tremendous 0 Report post Posted February 13, 2007 That Oswalt deal looks like chump change right now. Zambrano would want at least an extra $40 million over that length of time before even stepping to the negotitating table. I think the fact that he is already citing the Zito deal means that he is looking for comparable money. He wants to get paid, plain and simple. If the Cubs get off to a bad start next year and don't have Zambrano locked up, I wonder if they would deal him at the deadline. I think he would bring back a couple of good prospects for a team that needs starting pitching (which last time I checked was everyone). Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
vivalaultra 0 Report post Posted February 13, 2007 Maybe if the Cubs kicked in a bulldozer or something... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Guest Oedipus Rex Report post Posted February 13, 2007 I can see Carlos Zambrano driving a tank. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
HarleyQuinn 0 Report post Posted February 13, 2007 Hey, Cheech... Is there a full transcript for the MIT Sports Business Conference that you took your excerpts from? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cheech Tremendous 0 Report post Posted February 13, 2007 Hey, Cheech... Is there a full transcript for the MIT Sports Business Conference that you took your excerpts from? I'm sure there is, but I haven't found one yet. If I do, I'll provide the link. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
devo 0 Report post Posted February 13, 2007 http://cfs1.tistory.com/upload_control/dow...DAwMDAwMDAuanBn I'd like to think that the translation is accurate, but the use of OMG and other slang undercuts its authenticity somewhat. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cheech Tremendous 0 Report post Posted February 14, 2007 Player Team VORP Alex Rodriguez NYA 48.0 Alex Gordon KCA 34.2 Troy Glaus TOR 31.6 Adrian Beltre SEA 25.4 Eric Chavez OAK 24.0 PECOTA projections for AL 3B. That would be quite a drop in production for ARod over the past couple years, and that's a ridicuolous projection for Gordon. I know the system always over projects on prospects, but still, the Royals may have a legit superstar right out of the gate. In other news that won't mean much to anyone, Lenny DiNardo was claimed off waivers by the Oakland Athletics. He never did much of anything in Boston, but I still think he could be a decent pitcher in the right environment. The A's will probably give him a shot at the rotation. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
