This Week In Baseball 9/16-9/23

[Guest]

The Dodgers must score here. If not, season over.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Pitchers per plate appearance aside (I concede Adam Dunn sees more pitches than I thought) I'd much rather him put the ball in play if I'm a Reds fan. If there's a runner on third base with less than two outs, I really don't want a high-strikeout guy at the plate.

 

 

You'd want Juan Pierre, who has at least a 5% better chance of getting out and has about a 0% better chance of hitting a homerun.

[Guest]

I'm going to go cry.

[snuffbox 0]

Matt Wise was destroyed the night he hit that guy in the head. He's a shell now.

[Fuzzy Dunlop 0]

PujolJunkie:

 

Nick Swisher and Mike Lowell tied for last among eligible batters at .236. Because their batting averages were so low, both of these players were unable to recover, and never had a productive season in the Major Leagues again.

 

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Let's see if I can't explain this properly.

 

Batting average at one time was THE statistic for evaluating hitters. In the 1910s, Chalmers awarded automobiles to the best hitters in each league, and that was determined simply by batting average. The problem is that hitting success, ultimately scoring runs, involves more than batting average. Studies have shown that the most important factor in hitting is whether or not the hitter makes an out. That is where On Base Percentage comes in. Think about it. If you reverse OBP, you have a percentage of the time a hitter makes an out at the plate.

 

To illustrate the point, look at the 1936-39 New York Yankees. They were simply one of the most devastating offensive forces of all time. Four consecutive seasons, they led the league in runs scored. They never led the league in batting average.

 

Batting average is just a starting point. In order to determine a hitter's quality, you need to look at other factors, namely his plate discipline and power. Adam Dunn is hitting .266 with a .387 OBP. Juan Pierre is hitting .293 with a .331 OBP. Pierre has a higher batting average, but he makes outs at a far higher percentage as well.

 

Now what of the value of simply putting a ball in play? The effects are insignificant. Advancing runners is about 5% of offense. Getting runners on base in the first place is the other 95%. The average team makes an error less than once a game. Again I point to running correlations among offensive statistics. The Phillies are third in strikeouts and first in runs scored. The Giants are last in strikeouts, and second to last in runs scored. What does that tell you about the value of putting the ball in play?

 

You mentioned Adam Dunn hitting with a runner on third. I don't have the out situations handy but I can tell you with a runner on third base, Adam Dunn does strike out less (at least this season). The main problem with a hitter like Dunn is that the opposition is going to pitch around him in a key situation. But if Dunn doesn't strike out, he's either going to walk, or he's going to hit the ball so hard that it will result in a sacrifice fly.

 

Ultimately, there is no single blueprint for a hitter. Some guys are high average, medium power hitters who are highly productive. Dunn is a unique player, but he produces as many runs at the plate as any other hitter in the league.

[Dobbs 3K 0]

Matt Wise was destroyed the night he hit that guy in the head. He's a shell now.

 

Which was dumb. He should have gone right inside on the next batter after hitting that guy in the face. Instead, he let it get to him immediately. I really hope they don't use him the rest of the year, unless they have a ten run lead or something.

[sfaJack 0]

Ed Wade is in town, having been called back for a second interview by the Astros for their GM opening. He's the only candidate to be called back for a second interview, and is expected to be offered the job today.

[Guest Gym Class Fallout]

Matt Wise was destroyed the night he hit that guy in the head. He's a shell now.

 

Which was dumb. He should have gone right inside on the next batter after hitting that guy in the face.

Yeah, you ever broken somebody's nose with a fastball before, Invader? I don't think any of us are in a position to dictate what Matt Wise should do after busting a hitter's face open.

[snuffbox 0]

If the recent taser thread (and several dozen others) is any indication, Invader has never been involved in anything remotely violent outside the internet or television.

[geniusMoment 0]

Viva, spin away:

 

Former Philadelphia Phillies general manager Ed Wade is the new general manager in Houston, sources said Thursday.

 

Wade was in Houston on Thursday. Indications earlier in the day were that while club president Tal Smith apparently had recommended Wade, owner Drayton McLane hadn't made up his mind yet.

 

By Thursday afternoon, his mind was made up.

 

According to one baseball man who had been in touch with members of the Astros' organization, Wade was asked Wednesday to fly back to Houston for a second session because McLane needed to determine whether he could develop "a comfort level" with Wade.

 

Smith, on the other hand, has worked with Wade as far back as the late 1970s, when Wade served as the Astros' public relations director and Smith was the general manager. The two also worked together in the mid-'80s after Smith formed Tal Smith Enterprises, a consulting company which represented numerous teams in contract negotiations and arbitration hearings.

 

McLane has been widely rumored to have favored Wade's one-time assistant GM in Philadelphia, Ruben Amaro Jr. And indications are that Amaro is the lone other candidate still under consideration. But Wade's experience -- having served as a general manager for eight seasons with the Phillies -- apparently pushed him to the top of the list of 11 candidates interviews over the last two weeks.

 

Wade, 51, served as GM in Philadelphia from 1998 through the 2005 season. He had spent the previous eight years as assistant GM. After being elevated to the GM job, Wade prioritized the rebuilding of the Phillies' depleted farm system. And virtually the entire nucleus of the Phillies' current team was signed and developed during his tenure.

 

Wade was fired following the 2005 season after the Phillies failed to reach the playoffs in all eight seasons of his administration. He has spent the last two seasons working as a scout and special assistant to Padres GM Kevin Towers.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Ed Wade got a bum rap for failing to put the Phillies over the top. Pat Gillick has not done much better. Under Wade, the Phillies turned from a 90-loss team to a contender, and drafted and developed Pat Burrell, Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Cole Hamels and Brett Myers. I've had the opportunity to meet him and he is a great person.

[Bruiser Chong 0]

But can he pitch in relief?

[Brett Favre 0]

Another thing, putting the ball in play is overrated when guys who strikeout a lot (along with walking more) make a pitcher work a little more, and with pitch counts today that's a key way to get to the bullpen.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Why won't the Padres lose? Jesus f'n christ.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Why won't the Padres lose? Jesus f'n christ.

 

They're good... and they're better than the Phillies.

[Dandy 0]

I stated my reasons before on why I dislike Dunn, but there wasn't much discussion on it. Keep in mind I have not read Moneyball or any other book discussing the newer stats that everyone loves. I have, however, been a lifetime follower of baseball and have read Ted Williams' book on hitting about 100 times. My uncle, who coached me in the game as a youngster, told me that Roberto Clemente summed up playing the game of baseball like so: "I hit the ball, I throw the ball, I catch the ball, and I run." He taught me that baseball was a game of inches and technique, but sometimes you can get caught thinking too hard and sometimes you need to just go play. I used to be a very good hitter and played a good centerfield, and I tried not to overthink things. When I did, I tended to not hit as well.

 

Back to Dunn, the strikeouts are important to me by his decision to swing at some pitches and by how far he misses some of them. I'm quite sure there is not a stat showing how often he swings at bad pitches or misses the ball by four to six inches. Maybe someone will prove me wrong, though. He is looking to mash the ball and I feel he should not be swinging so loosely at times. When he connects, he hits it a long way, and he walks a lot. The reason I say he should cut down on his strikeouts is because pitchers should be forced to give him better pitches, thus allowing him a better opportunity to drive the ball. You guys get caught up in the "an out is an out" theory, but I am really not disputing that. I'm saying he should limit his "outs" by limiting his strikeouts. If he could turn those into walks by laying off the bad pitches, his OBP would go up and make him more valuable. Dunn is also not as clutch as I would like. Piling up stats is great, but I just don't think his stats give us a better chance of winning than anyone else we have on the field.

 

The biggest problem I have is that stats tell a story, but not the whole story. Who lead the league this year in misplaying a ball in the outfield that did not result in an error? Who leads the league in not hustling on their way to first and having to settle for a single instead of a double? Who leads in throwing the ball too high and not giving the primary cutoff man a shot at picking the guy at second? I'm not suggesting Dunn leads in any of these categories, just pointing out that baseball is not all stats. If it were, why not just never play the game and plug some statistics into a computer and read the highlights of who won? I don't think Dunn is right for Cincinnati. He would be a tremendous DH, but even with his improved fielding, he is an adventure in the outfield. I would much rather take a guy that hit less homers but was a better all around player than Dunn.

 

A poster said it all earlier when they said that Dunn is tying up too much money. If we could have gotten a good value out of him via trade this year, we would have taken it. What does that tell you? Cincy has capable young outfielders for the next several years provided they pan out. Adam Dunn has not made us a contender so far, and I don't see that changing in the near future. I would much rather get some young pitching prospects (AAA or MLB level) for him in a trade and free up some money to use elsewhere.

 

Again, just my thoughts as a baseball lifer and Reds fan until I die.

[Guest Gym Class Fallout]

You guys get caught up in the "an out is an out" theory, but I am really not disputing that. I'm saying he should limit his "outs" by limiting his strikeouts. If he could turn those into walks by laying off the bad pitches, his OBP would go up and make him more valuable.

But you're framing this as if he only strikes out and never walks. He walks a lot! You run deep into a count, the odds are high that you'll walk or strike out. He does both often. Furthermore, "an out is an out" isn't a theory, it's a statement of fact.

 

If Reds fans would rather have a gritty grindy gamer in left, those are dime a dozen, but I think Dunn is a real asset to that team. It's not his fault Cincinnati can't assemble a pitching rotation with more to offer than Aaron Harang. If they had some proper pitching, they'd compete.

[Dandy 0]

I am well aware that he walks a lot. He gets pitched around because of his power AND he has a good eye. What happens to that good eye when he is swinging at pitches a foot out of the strike zone, though? Like I said, if he cuts down his strikeouts, his OBP goes up. I know that doesn't compute because "an out is an out" but if he stops swinging at terrible pitches and gets more walks, then he is a better player.

 

You are helping my point that Cincy needs more pitching and if they could get rid of Dunn to accomplish that, then they should.

 

And I'm not looking for a gritty gamer in his place, but Jay Bruce, Josh Hamilton and Norris Hopper sound like a good young outfield to me. I am a huge Griffey fan and I don't want to see him leave like most people, but those four comprise a respectable outfield that are much better all-around players than if Dunn is there.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

I am well aware that he walks a lot. He gets pitched around because of his power AND he has a good eye. What happens to that good eye when he is swinging at pitches a foot out of the strike zone, though? Like I said, if he cuts down his strikeouts, his OBP goes up. I know that doesn't compute because "an out is an out" but if he stops swinging at terrible pitches and gets more walks, then he is a better player.

 

But Adam Dunn doesn't have a good batting eye. That is why he strikes out so much. It is a common misconception that players who walk a lot have good batting eyes. However, in reality, the opposite often rings true. The reason Adam Dunn walks as much as he does is because of how he murders the ball when he makes contact. Pitchers are afraid to challenge in the zone because of what might happen. The walks are a direct result of the pitchers recognizing his power.

 

It would be nice if he could lay off the bad pitches and develop a good batting eye while retaining his hitting ability. Then you'd have Barry Bonds. Unfortunately, those only come along once in a generation. Players can hit for average and players can hit for power. Adam Dunn happens to be one of the best at doing the latter. You should appreciate what he offers because there are dozens of teams that wish they could have it.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

And I'm not looking for a gritty gamer in his place, but Jay Bruce, Josh Hamilton and Norris Hopper sound like a good young outfield to me. I am a huge Griffey fan and I don't want to see him leave like most people, but those four comprise a respectable outfield that are much better all-around players than if Dunn is there.

 

Hopper's a AAA guy, he's not a long term solution. Neither him or Hamilton are better players than Dunn. Jay Bruce maybe, he's VERY highly regarded.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

As for Dunn, it's easy to say he could cut back on the strikeouts. Just as I could say Jeff Francoeur should walk more. But it's not so easy to actually do it. Dunn's approach works in its own way. One of Earl Weaver's truisms was that a good manager looks at what a player CAN do, rather than what he can't. Bad organizations look at what a player can't do. Unfortunately Reds' broadcaster Marty Brennaman really gets on Dunn's case and I think that poisons the fanbase.

[Dandy 0]

I don't let an announcer sway my opinion, and most often, I'm listening to George Grande and Chris Welsh anyway.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

I'll remember this night every time I see Matt Maloney win a game for the Reds.

 

Anyone with the Phillies feed ever notice when they run a stat on the screen. Gary Matthews awkwardly reads the stat and pretty much states what it says. They show Jason Bergmann's first/second half split. "Jason Bergmann's ERA in the second half has been higher." Sarge seems like a likeable guy. He adds nothing to the broadcast.

 

Come to think of it, neither does the pitching.

[vivalaultra 0]

The Astros have hired former Phillies GM Ed Wade to take over the team (in name only, since Drayton McClane's still gonna call most the shots, of course). Al or other knowledgable fans, how's Wade as a GM? I heard that he was responsible for drafting Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Brett Myers, but I also know that he's made some boneheaded moves.

 

Edit:

 

It might just be the grammarian in me, but this quote of Wade's from today's press conference:

 

"We added stability and continuity and built a team that was successful, but just not successful enough to get to the postseason. It's that type of experience that I believe prepares me for this opportunity."

 

strikes me as odd. Is he saying that the fact that he can put together a team that plays well in the regular season but can't hack it in the postseason qualifies him to be the GM?

[geniusMoment 0]

As for Dunn, it's easy to say he could cut back on the strikeouts. Just as I could say Jeff Francoeur should walk more. But it's not so easy to actually do it. Dunn's approach works in its own way. One of Earl Weaver's truisms was that a good manager looks at what a player CAN do, rather than what he can't. Bad organizations look at what a player can't do. Unfortunately Reds' broadcaster Marty Brennaman really gets on Dunn's case and I think that poisons the fanbase.

 

 

I would argue Hamilton has the chance to be every bit as good as Dunn. He hadn't played high level ball consistantly in 4 years and played great this year. If he had 600 at bats this year he'd have 40 home runs as well. In 298 at bats he has a .368 OBP, 19 home runs, 52 runs and about 49 RBI's (I'm not sure on this off hand). That is his rookie season, and in essence his first taste of pitching over the AA level, he will no doubt improve with time.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

The Astros have hired former Phillies GM Ed Wade to take over the team (in name only, since Drayton McClane's still gonna call most the shots, of course). Al or other knowledgable fans, how's Wade as a GM? I heard that he was responsible for drafting Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Brett Myers, but I also know that he's made some boneheaded moves.

 

Edit:

 

It might just be the grammarian in me, but this quote of Wade's from today's press conference:

 

"We added stability and continuity and built a team that was successful, but just not successful enough to get to the postseason. It's that type of experience that I believe prepares me for this opportunity."

 

strikes me as odd. Is he saying that the fact that he can put together a team that plays well in the regular season but can't hack it in the postseason qualifies him to be the GM?

He's saying that although the Phils never made the postseason, he built a quality team.

 

Honestly, he never really made a truly boneheaded move. He traded Scott Rolen but that was after a public feud between Rolen and Larry Bowa that forced a deal. The Curt Schilling trade brought over a couple good seasons of Vicente Padilla. I can't really find a single player the Phils traded under Wade that came back to bite him. Meanwhile, the major pieces of the Phillies as mentioned were drafted under Wade. The Abreu for Stocker deal occured on his watch, as did the Estrada for Millwood deal. Wade was GM when the Phillies took Shane Victorino in the Rule V draft. The only strike is that Wade tends to overpay for middle relief. I miss those days.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

As for Dunn, it's easy to say he could cut back on the strikeouts. Just as I could say Jeff Francoeur should walk more. But it's not so easy to actually do it. Dunn's approach works in its own way. One of Earl Weaver's truisms was that a good manager looks at what a player CAN do, rather than what he can't. Bad organizations look at what a player can't do. Unfortunately Reds' broadcaster Marty Brennaman really gets on Dunn's case and I think that poisons the fanbase.

 

 

I would argue Hamilton has the chance to be every bit as good as Dunn. He hadn't played high level ball consistantly in 4 years and played great this year. If he had 600 at bats this year he'd have 40 home runs as well.

He's got a shot. What people don't realize is that at 26, Hamilton doesn't have a lot of development left. Dunn is just a year older. (As a side note, Ryan Howard is only ten days younger than Dunn.) Remember that Hamilton has been protected against lefties as well.

[vivalaultra 0]

I know it's a really small sample size, but seeing some of the Astros' September callups, especially J.R. Towles (5 RBI tonite against the Cards), Josh Anderson (.450 BA over the past two weeks), Juan Gutierrez, and Felipe Paulino gets me excited about the future of the team, presuming that the Astros do something completely wacky and let the kids play next year instead of bringing in a bunch of scrubs and bench players to fill spots. Also Dennis Safarte, picked up from the Brewers for cash last week, has been pretty good. Supposedly he can't throw anything but 97 mph fastballs, though.

[UseTheSledgehammerUh 0]

Kevin Gregg can kiss my ass, thanks for giving the Mets a game.

 

What an awful job by Willie Randolph tonight, BTW, blown double-switches and Sosa over Wagner?