The 2008 MLB Offseason Thread

[Boon 0]

Less significant, but they also closed the book on all their arb. eligible players by signing Javy Lopez.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Less significant, but they also closed the book on all their arb. eligible players by signing Javy Lopez.

It's amazing that the Sox haven't gone to arbitration with any of their players since Theo took over. That's good business practice. Curt Schilling had a post the other day on SOSH about how ugly the whole process is, basically imploring to the Sox to avoid taking the emotional Papelbon into the hearings.

 

In other arb news, Ryan Howard submitted a figure of $18 million! That guy is just determined to blow the doors off this whole process.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

$18 million?! Seriously? Let's take a look at Cot's.

 

First basemen

The highest-paid active first basemen, by average annual value:

 

1. Mark Teixeira, $22,500,000 (2009-16)

2. Todd Helton, $15,722,222 (2003-11)

3. Albert Pujols, $14,285,214 (2004-10)

4. Lance Berkman, $14,166,667 (2005-10)

5. Justin Morneau, $13,333,333 (2008-13)

6. Carlos Delgado, $13,000,000 (2005-08)

Derrick Lee, $13,000,000 (2006-10)

7. Carlos Guillen, $12,000,000 (2008-11)

Paul Konerko, $12,000,000 (2006-10)

8. Kevin Youkilis, $10,281,250 (2009-12)

9. Ryan Howard, $10,000,000 (2008)

10. Carlos Pena, $8,041,667 (2008-10)

 

There is one first baseman in baseball making more than $18 million. The Phillies countered with $14 million, making the break-even salary $16 Mil. Justin Morneau has about the same service time and finished second in the AL MVP voting. I got burned last year, but I really can't see the Phillies losing this case.

 

And all this for a first baseman who didn't finish in the top ten in OPS.

[Dobbs 3K 0]

Is Howard still pissed at the Phillies for keeping him down in the minors a long time? I just can't see him even getting that much right now...could be a big mistake on his part.

 

Speaking of arbitration, I was pleasantly surprised to hear that Prince Fielder is asking $8 million, while the Brewers offered $6 million. Chances are they could settle somewhere in between, but even $8 million seems pretty reasonable for a hitter of his caliber.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Is Howard still pissed at the Phillies for keeping him down in the minors a long time? I just can't see him even getting that much right now...could be a big mistake on his part.

 

If he's upset he's misguided. Howard only played 90 games in AAA, it was only a news story because Jim Thome looked like such a significant mountain at the time.

 

Chase Utley spent 271 games in AAA. I never heard him whine about it. And god it's infuriating even today to look at those stat lines.

[the pinjockey 0]

By the sounds of it, it is Howard's dad steering the ship here. That is why I am resigned to the fact he is never signing a long term deal with the Phils.

 

Would you consider trading Ryan Howard now where a team would at least control his rights for a couple more years (for the right return obviously) and sign Adam Dunn at probably 2/3rds of Howard's submitted figure to replace him (a figure that will only go up in the next two years)? Dunn is only 10 days older, Howard is a terrible fielder so no real downgrade there, and Dunn has a comparable bat.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

I wouldn't take the PR hit. Warts aside, Howard is a valuable piece of the Phillies' image. No long term deal though. Keep going to arbitration for three years if need be, and let him hit the market afterwards.

[Failed Bridge 0]

Dunn has said he will not play first base anymore according to something on rotoworld.com

[Dobbs 3K 0]

Well, he doesn't have that much experience at 1B to begin with...although it's probably a bit dumb on his part to come out and say that, as it's only going to hit his potential value on the open market at this point.

 

I kind of wish the Brewers would make a run at him, but apparently that won't be happening.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Dunn has said he will not play first base anymore according to something on rotoworld.com

He also said that he won't DH. He only wants to play outfield. I can't quite figure out why he'd want to limit his value like that when he's already having trouble finding offers. There are analysts out there that think he wants a one-year deal so that he can go back out in the market when the economy is better. Dunn may be worried that his value will diminish further if he's not seen as a player with an everyday position.

 

Age aside, Dunn is basically equivalent to Ryan Howard in terms of offensive and defensive value. Dunn is finding it hard to even get an offer and Howard is asking for $18 million in his second year of arbitration. There is something not quite right about this picture. Yes, I understand why the system tends to work out like this, but it doesn't make it right.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Quick back of the napkin math here on what Howard is actually worth versus his arbitration claim:

 

His 50th percentile projection has him at .271/.379/.576 for 2009. That looks about right. With 547 at-bats he projects out at being worth 45 runs above a replacement-level player. Factor in below-average baserunning ability and a positional adjustment for 1B and he factors out at somewhere between 2.7 and 3.4 wins next year, depending on how you feel about his defense.

 

UZR seems to think he's an average defender even if he may not look it. Let's give him the benefit of the doubt and say that's true. If so, Howard is worth 3.4 wins. At $4.4 million per win he's worth approximately $15 million on the open market.

 

However, that figure supposes Howard is a free agent. Arbitration usually works on a 40/60/80 scale (first year arb players get 40% of market, second get 60%, etc.). That would have him worth $9 million. Even if we bump him a rung because of Super-2 status, he's still only at $12 million.

 

Phillies should win this case, but we'll see.

 

EDIT: By the way, I've gotten really good at figuring out how use the various projection systems out there to come up with expected offensive and defensive production. Once I have that, it's simple to figure out value. If you want me to take a look at any other players, just let me know.

[Dobbs 3K 0]

Jeff Kent officially announced his retirement today. Retires after 17 seasons as the all time 2B home run leader.

 

I think he'll get into the Hall, but maybe not on the first ballot. You know there will be some writers who don't vote for him because he wasn't exactly Mr. Nice Guy.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Keith Law's Top 25 Prospects

 

Matt Wieters tops the list, just ahead of Tampa Bay's David Price. Lots of Rays and Rangers on that list.

 

Oh, and here's this:

 

Keith Law's Organizational Rankings

 

The Rangers system is stocked to a sick degree right now.

[Brett Favre 0]

They finally have some pitchers.

[jwest27 0]

Kind of surprised to see the Cardinals in the top 10. I guess I should keep up with the farm system a little more. I know we have Rasmus, but beyond that I'm fairly clueless.

[Smartly Pretty 0]

Would a kind soul with ESPN insider care to give us the full list of organizational rankings?

[jimmy no nose 0]

Is it just the fact that he hasn't actually played a professional game that makes Pedro Alvarez rank so inconsistently on these lists? Baseball America had him as #3 overall behind the obvious top 2 and #1 in the NL, but MLB.com and Keith Law both didn't even list him top 25.

[Annabelle 0]

$18 million?! Seriously? Let's take a look at Cot's.

 

First basemen

The highest-paid active first basemen, by average annual value:

 

1. Mark Teixeira, $22,500,000 (2009-16)

2. Todd Helton, $15,722,222 (2003-11)

3. Albert Pujols, $14,285,214 (2004-10)

4. Lance Berkman, $14,166,667 (2005-10)

5. Justin Morneau, $13,333,333 (2008-13)

6. Carlos Delgado, $13,000,000 (2005-08)

Derrick Lee, $13,000,000 (2006-10)

7. Carlos Guillen, $12,000,000 (2008-11)

Paul Konerko, $12,000,000 (2006-10)

8. Kevin Youkilis, $10,281,250 (2009-12)

9. Ryan Howard, $10,000,000 (2008)

10. Carlos Pena, $8,041,667 (2008-10)

 

There is one first baseman in baseball making more than $18 million. The Phillies countered with $14 million, making the break-even salary $16 Mil. Justin Morneau has about the same service time and finished second in the AL MVP voting. I got burned last year, but I really can't see the Phillies losing this case.

 

And all this for a first baseman who didn't finish in the top ten in OPS.

minor note, substitute carlos guillen with miguel cabrera.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Is it just the fact that he hasn't actually played a professional game that makes Pedro Alvarez rank so inconsistently on these lists? Baseball America had him as #3 overall behind the obvious top 2 and #1 in the NL, but MLB.com and Keith Law both didn't even list him top 25.

Some analysts don't rank players until they have at least some professional experience under their belt. I haven't seen the rest of MLB.com or Keith Law's lists, but if he isn't ranked anywhere that's probably the case.

 

Baseball America is also notorious for ranking upside over likelihood of reaching the majors. Whereas that doesn't really apply to Alvarez because of his collegiate experience, it explains why they might be so bullish on a guy with no track record of performance.

 

I haven't really thought too hard about rankings, but #3 overall sounds about right for Alvarez. He's the best pure hitter out there after Wieters.

[MarvinisaLunatic 0]

Brian Roberts supposedly turned down a 3/30 offer which makes it seem to me as if he wont be playing for the Os this year. I dont think they'll give him more than 10 a year or more than 3 years.

 

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Brian Roberts supposedly turned down a 3/30 offer which makes it seem to me as if he wont be playing for the Os this year. I dont think they'll give him more than 10 a year or more than 3 years.

That's a lowball offer. I have Roberts as being worth $15-$18 million a year. He also projects as a player that will age gracefully.

[2GOLD 0]

 

Only the god damn Orioles would fight off trade after trade where they get max value for Roberts only to low ball him later when their backs are about to be up against the wall with him.

 

They already lack a shortstop and as far as I know, no one in the system is worth a damn at second base either. And odds are if they try and deal him NOW when the other teams know they aren't going to open their wallet to keep him will leave them not getting much in a trade.

 

I just don't get the logic there. Fight to keep the guy and then don't make him a solid offer.

[Precious Roy 0]

Do you really think Roberts would come close to that on the open market?

[MarvinisaLunatic 0]

As big of a fan of Roberts as I am, no way he's worth 15 million a year (more than Markakis is getting on average over his 6 year deal). I think that unless they get anyone that plays 2B in a trade or some other means, Ryan Freel would probably play 2B. Hes currently listed as Roberts backup on the Os website's depth chart and I am unaware of anyone in the minors that is ready to play now that could replace Roberts.

[Broward83 0]

Cheech, would you mind putting up the blurb on the Astros?

 

Oh, and using the above values you mentioned..mind giving a quick rundown of Tejada this year?

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Cheech, would you mind putting up the blurb on the Astros?

 

Blurb?

 

Edit: Sorry, I don't have Insider. I'll be happy to go over some of these team's systems when my copy of Baseball America arrives. I've got the Astros in my bottom five organizations though, for what it's worth. But I'm no Keith Law.

 

Oh, and using the above values you mentioned..mind giving a quick rundown of Tejada this year?

 

Sure thing. Looking at the projections out there, he looks like a .285/.340/.440 guy next year. That's worth about 16 runs above replacement, but we have to adjust upward 7 runs for playing shortstop. He was a little above average last year defensively (+5), but -6 runs the year before. Let's call him completely average. That puts him at 2.3 total wins above replacement. Using $4.4 million per win yields a FMV of $10 million.

 

Do you really think Roberts would come close to that on the open market?

 

Hard to say since the market has been so unresponsive this year. I've projected him at $15 million+, with only marginal diminishing returns over the next three years. Let's say his value holds $15 million per year. Discount it 10% for the security of a long-term deal and a contract of 3 years, $40 million looks reasonable. That's a little more than Furcal got, which sounds about right.

[the max 0]

I think he meant the Astros blurb from the Keith Law Insider deal.

[Broward83 0]

..yeah, that's what I had meant.

 

Sorry for the confusion Cheech.

[the max 0]

Got it from deadspin, but what the hey:

 

http://www.stltoday.com/discussions/sports...LD011609628/all

 

I Hate Bill Dewitt!!: Mo,

Please describe what it's like living in your little land of make believe where you honestly believe that Cardinal fans should be excited about this team. If you wouldn't mind, go into details, about how in MO's world people are celebrating are three horrible new lefty relievers, and the signing of our awesome new .213 hitting shortstop.

John Mozeliak: First I rather live in my world then yours...it is sunny out today??? No you're right it is 30 something degrees, my girl friend dumped me, and my car won't start.

First, it is not we stink (unless you ask yourself these questions in the mirror) and we make decisions based on scouts, stats, and other information. If we thought Greene was going to hit .213 we would not, I repeat, not make the deal.

Go back to your world and I hope by mid summer you're ready to come out for air

 

I like the new Cardinal Attitude.

[YourKock'sReallyGreat 0]

The Brewers are closing in on 2 year deal with Prince Fielder.

 

Big Mac's brother confirms in a book coming out that Mark did both HGH and Steroids during his playing days.