Summer Box Office...

[Craig Th 0]

Summer Box Office started on May 1st. Any movie after May 1st is going on the list and you have to make over $50,00 to make the list. (There are tons of indy movies, so I am not going to count those if they don't make a lot)

 

Week 10: (I think)

1. Spiderman 3 - $334,395,166

2. Shrek the Third - $316,959,197

3. Pirates 3 - $302,156,352

4. Transformers - $165,333,052

5. Knocked Up - $132,786,520

6. Fantastic Four 2 - $124,428,058

7. Ratatouille - $113,600,498

8. Ocean's 13 - $109,554,813

9. Live Free or Die Hard - $86,603,421

10. Evan Almighty - $79,900,670

[Mik 0]

I don't know enough about movies to do a pool but wouldn't the Pixar movie be a better bet to clear 200M?

[Kahran Ramsus 0]

I wouldn't be surprised if Shrek is #1 either, but given the hype and amount of anticipation for the film I would have to say that POTC3 is probably going to end up the highest grossing of the lot.

 

Fantastic Four 2 is your bust. It is the big budget sequel to a film that lots of people saw, but that few people actually liked, and the most of the hype for the film is of the negative variety. I can't see it doing as well as the first one did, even if it surprises and is actually good.

[bob_barron 0]

I think Shrek will win out, since it appeals to everyone. Even though Shrek 2 kinda sucked

[bob_barron 0]

And no way Nancy Drew makes 100 million. The Invasion's going to tank as well

[cabbageboy 0]

There's no way Shrek 3 will end up being the #1 movie. First off, early test responses to the trailer haven't exactly been all that positive. Second, Shrek 2's success was huge but yet had a ring of fluke to it. Not so much that it made serious $$, but the sheer psychotic amount that it made for what was kind of a standard flick.

 

Also, Shrek is coming out in a month where there are easily two other movies that have more hype: Spider-Man 3 and POTC: At World's End. With those two movies we have the cliffhanger from Dean Man's Chest to propel POTC to massive box office, as well as the whole symbiote black costume in Spidey that is a huge fan favorite storyline. Shrek really doesn't have much else to say as a series, but those other series do.

 

I dare say the next Harry Potter movie will make more money too, since it is heating up as a storyline at this point.

 

Some of these I don't know about. I know everyone on here thinks Transformers is going to do huge business, but I'm not sure how many people really give a shit about Transformers anymore. It'd be like doing a new He Man or GI Joe movie. Why is Transformers going to be huge when TMNT wasn't?

 

I'd put the Simpsons movie in that 200+ range. If it's any good at all it'll be a huge hit.

[Kahran Ramsus 0]

I'd be surprised if OotP does as well as GoF, if only because it is a darker, more depressing story and because the winter season has proven to get better returns for the Harry Potter franchise than the summer season.

[foleyfanforever88 0]

I'll be seeing Shrek 3, Spidey 3, Pirates 3, HP 5, Rush Hour 3, Bourne Ultimatum, Oceans 13, Evan Almighty, and Fantastic Four 2 for sure this summer, but not necessarily all in theaters. The only ones I'll DEFINITELY see in theaters are Spidey 3, Pirates 3, HP 5, Rush Hour 3, and Oceans 13.

 

I hope the Simpsons movie bombs; the show isn't funny at all and the previews for the movie suck balls.

 

To add one more movie to the list..anyone around my age is sure to remember the Disney Channel movie Johnny Tsunami (one of the only Disney Channel movies I really liked and by far the best one), and from what I hear there is a sequel to it coming out this summer starring the same kid and his grandfather again.

[tommytomlin 0]

I think The Simpsons movie will make an insane amount of cash, and way more than a Transformers or a Rush Hour 3. It's been on since what, 1989? That's a few generations of people who have grown up with The Simpsons, plus those who were adults when it first aired. It will be massive, and I'd easily put it in the top bracket.

[AboveAverage484 0]

I don't think Transformers will reach 200 mil. 100 mil, probably, but 200 mil is such a huge figure.

[Hawk 34 0]

In No Order

 

The Big Ones (250+ Million)

Shrek The Third

POTC

Spiderman 3

 

Blockbusters (150-250 Million)

Transformers (Has a fan base and comes out on ideal date)

Evan Almighty (The first installment did big business and Carrel is a popular name)

Ocean’s 13 (The 2nd was a bust but people still love these actors)

Ratatouille (Pixar Movie is hard to go against)

Harry Potter and Order of the Phoenix (It’s Harry Potter)

I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry (Sandler at what he does best with a good comic support in Kevin James and Biel)

The Simpsons Movie (Long awaited and loyal fan base)

Bourne Ultimatum (Very popular series)

Rush Hour 3 (Again, another popular series)

 

Big Hits (100-150 Million)

28 Weeks Later (The first was a hit)

Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (Might possibly be the big bust of the summer as well but I’ll play it safe)

License to Wed (Romantic Comedy on 4th July weekend with Robin Williams, Mandy Moore and John “Jim” Krasinki)

Hairspray (Travolta in drag and popular musical? That’ll probably sell)

Live Free or Die Hard (Popular series that probably doesn’t have enough to get to the next level)

 

 

Sleepers

Knocked Up (Combine 40 Year Old Virgin with Grey’s Star in goofy premise likely to draw the female demo but bring the comedy for the guys…you got a hit)

Nancy Drew (Movies geared toward teen girls tend do well)

Sicko (Michael Moore movie. People might still consider him relevant although the topic isn’t as juicy, health care)

Halloween (Zombie’s remix might draw a big enough crowd)

[4hartthreat 0]

God help us all if "I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry" makes over $100 million. I have no doubt it will make money, but 100+ million? I would weep yet again for humanity.

[The Niggardly King 0]

Sleeper pick for Blockbuster would have to be 28 Weeks Later.

 

Sleeper pick for for the Top 3 this summer will be Rush Hour 3.

 

Transformers is my bomb pick. Bomb in the Hulk sense.

 

POTC should be #1 and Spiderman will be the close #2, and I can honestly see Rush Hour 3 being the distant 3rd... followed by Harry Potter and Shrek.

[Craig Th 0]

God help us all if "I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry" makes over $100 million. I have no doubt it will make money, but 100+ million? I would weep yet again for humanity.

[4hartthreat 0]

That's very nice, but that is surrounded by two guys pretending to be gay in order to save their pensions. And of course the kicker, Rob Schneider playing what appears to be an Asian Rabbi....

[Craig Th 0]

Just look at that picture again and be quiet.

[RedJed 0]

Maybe Im just not familiar with the numbers the first two Rush Hours did, but I really dont think its going to get these huge numbers as some are saying. It will do around 100 mil or so, but I think that's probably the max. It seems to me its been too long since number two and it's just beating a dead horse now. Chan, nor Tucker, are not particular "draws." Plus was either Rush Hours actually released in the middle of the summer madness?

 

The tri-part 3 sequalmania will run pretty strong this summer, Shrek, Pirates, and Spiderman. Everything else is going to be probably a step below those numbers, but I would imagine Potter, Transformers, Simpsons, Die Hard 4, Rush Hour 3, Ocean's 13, Almighty, and things of that nature do fairly alright.

 

28 Weeks Later - I'll go see it, but I dont see a huge flocking for that one particularly, especially being caught in between SM3 and POTC3, its gonna be a tough fight.

 

Jesus christ, they are doing fucking Hairspray AGAIN? Is this the same story from the previous film of the same name, based off a stage play I believe? Kill me now.

 

I might go see the Sandler comedy just for Jessica Beil alone. She has the most yummy body I think I have damn well ever seen.

 

Sleeper of the summer might be Superbad - it just has that American Pie vibe to it, I think it will do some great business.

[Darthtiki 0]

I believe that Spidey will be the big winner and at least knock off the all time weekend opening barely. Pirates, while doing well will not do the business that DMC did and will only gross about 210 domestically in 4 weeks unless it delivers an epic product. Shrek will do really well, but not what Rattatouie will do (PDI v Pixar, I'll go with Pixar almost everytime). FF2 will be the surefire dud, especially if what I'm hearing about the Galactus appearance is true. Add The Simpsons to the disappoint list while showing well initially, it won't have really strong legs and if poor numbers come in look for Fox to develop an exit strategy for the series at the end of the current contract. Evan Almighty will probably disappoint overall, but Steve Carrell will deliver another solid performance. The sleeper will be a tie between Knocked Up and Superbad which either way will make Seth Roden the next big comedic lead. I think the big gamble is going to be Transformers, it could be a great movie and a redemption for Michael Bay, however the buzz may have peaked and cooled already and this could be this years Snakes on a Plane, except much more disasterous.

 

Now, 2008 will be a interesting year.

[RedJed 0]

I just can't see Simpsons bombing at all - throughout the years, they have generated a very strong and pretty loyal fanbase, and even for those who perhaps don't really watch the series anymore (like me) I sure as hell am intriged how a film will be, and will most certainly go check it out.

[Celtic Jobber 0]

I have a feeling Transformers is gonna be a bomb at the box office, I was never hyped up for a live-action version to begin with, and although the trailer looks much better than I would've expected, I don't know anyone outside of Transformers fanboys, who wants to see it.

 

And I seriously doubt The Simpsons will do as good as some of you think. I mean, sure it's popular, but the show has been free on TV for 17 years, the writing has seen better days, and it will probably come in about 8th place overall.

 

And for the record, I'd much rather see "Chuck & Larry" than Shrek 3, Harry Potter, or Evan Almighty (am I the only person who doesn't find Steve Carroll funny?).

 

Spiderman 3 is the one I *hope* is the biggest hit, simply because Spiderman is the best superhero movie franchise of all-time, IMHO.

[bob_barron 0]

God help us all if "I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry" makes over $100 million. I have no doubt it will make money, but 100+ million? I would weep yet again for humanity.

 

Her face totally ruins the picture Mole

[Black Lushus 0]

besides, her booty is her best attribute...try again Mole...

[bob_barron 0]

Smash Hits (Over $200 million)

 

1. Shrek the Third - (I don't want this to be #1, but I just have a feeling)

 

Shrek 3 made 441 million three years ago, despite being a pretty crappy movie and greatly inferior to the original. Assuming Shrek the Third isn't a complete crapfest, it should still make quite a bit of money. But I see it topping out about 380-400. Week 2 competition from Pirates will severely cut into its business.

 

So I'll say: 385

 

2. Spiderman 3

 

Spider-Man made 403 mil, while Spider-Man 2 made 373 mil. I think Spider-Man 3 will come in between the two movies. A lot of people of talking like this will be the last one, so they will definetly want to see it in theatres. Spider-Man is being released first, and has no competition it's second week so it should be able to rack up enough business to sustain itself when Shrek and Pirates come to town. I see this one making about 380-400.

 

 

3. Pirates 3

 

I think Pirates was right place right time last summer, and I don't think it will match Pirates 2 business. I really think they should've pushed Pirates 3 back a bit and just let Shrek and Spider-Man rule the month. I think this will top out at 350.

 

4. Harry Potter & the Order of the Phoenix

 

Order of Phoenix will be more in line with Azkaban, which made 260 million in 04. They were smart in pushing it back until July 13th to avoid the May rush, unlike in 04 when it got its ass kicked by Shrek. I don't think Transformers will be too much competiton, but releasing it in the summer instead of the winter will cut into the gross. I'd say about 265.

 

 

5. Rush Hour 3

 

The last Rush Hour made 226 million, but that was 6 years ago. Does anyone even remember Chris Tucker? They were smart to push it to the end of the summer, but I don't think they'll get 200 million. 150 mil maybe. I could also see this one being the flop of the summer.

 

6. Transformers

 

This is another movie I'm thinking could bomb. It will do huge on fourth of July, but will be facing week 2 of Ratatouille and then in Transformers week 2- it will have Harry Potter. And everyone's sick of Michael Bay. I don't think this is the 6th biggest film of the summer.

 

 

Big Hits ($100 - $199 million)

 

- The Bourne Ultimatum

 

I think Bourne will top 200 and Transformers and Rush Hour 2. Bourne Supremacy made 176 and was a critical hit and a big hit with audiences and played well on video. In terms of action movies, it will have been a month since Transformers. I see Bourne making 220.

 

- The Simpsons Movie

 

Hmmmmm. I think this will have a big opening weekend, and then word of mouth will depend whether this stays alive. But doing a Simpsons Movie now? Bad idea. I don't see this making a huge amount of money.

 

And as an aside mole, 100-199 is a huge gap. You need to shorten it.

 

Live Free or Die Hard

 

This one is interesting to handicap. The last Die Hard made 100 million. But Bruce Willis' star has totally faded. His last three star vehicles bombed and except for Sin City- his movies haven't done too well. But this is Bruce Willis in his comfort zone, and I think Die Hard should make about 100-120 million. Having the fourth of July as week 2 will help.

 

Ocean's Thirteen

 

Ocean's 11 made 180, Ocean's 12 made 120. Did anyone really want to see another Ocean's movie? They picked a perfect release for it though, so it should have a good opening weekend. I see this making about 110-120.

 

Ratatouille

 

Less then 200? Less then Ocean's 13? Come on Mole. It's a Pixar movie! Since 1998, every Pixar movie has made at least 244 million. And their last movie was a dumb flick about Cars. It will have a huge week + 4th of July before the Potter flick comes in. Plus given that Order might have a PG-13, it's really the only family flick for the next month. 270 million for Rat I think.

 

Evan Almighty

 

I could see this getting lost in the shuffle. Has to face week 2 of Fantastic Four and then in its second week, it has Ratatouille, another family film. Plus they went ridiciously overbudget, which is never a good sign. I could see this being another summer disappointment.

 

Fantastic Four 2

 

Fantastic Four made 154 million. I think F42 will do about the same.

 

I Now Pronouce You Chuck & Larry

 

150 million.

 

Nancy Drew

 

No way this makes 100-199 million. It's Nancy fucking Drew. Being the only movie for girls will help, but I don't think it makes that much.

 

 

Sleepers?

 

Knocked Up

 

Seth Rogan is no Steve Carrel. And it has second week of Pirates. This will do pretty well, but it needs more starpower to go over the top.

 

Hairspray

 

I don't think this will bomb like Rent and Producers, but I don't see a Chicago or Dreamgirls. Somewhere in the middle.

 

28 Weeks Later

 

Good opening weekend, and then lost in the shuffle.

 

Hostel Part II

 

Should be a nice alternative in the middle of summer.

 

The Invasion

 

Tank.

 

Superbad

 

It's George Michael and the fat kid from Accepted. It will be awesome, but no one will see this.

 

Hot Rod

 

This should do alright.

 

A Mighty Heart

 

This seems more like a movie to release in the fall, not summer. I don't see this one doing very well.

 

You forgot Surf's Up and Halloween. I also would so see Underdog, but that's just me.

[Hank Kingsley 0]

I probably won't be seeing a lot in theaters this summer, just because I'm not caught up with most of the franchises. Definitely seeing Knocked Up (which I think will fall short of 40 YOV but still do well), Spidey, Bourne, and Superbad (which I agree with Bob, will be hilarious but in no way a hit. Maybe it'll bank on DVD).

[bob_barron 0]

August also has El Cantante which could make some money with Hispanic audiences. And while Sicko won't make F9/11 money, I see it doing 50-60 mil.

 

There's alsoa movie called The Comebacks starring Todd Packer and Carl Weathers. That's going to rule.

[Youth N Asia 0]

Don't count out 1408. John Cusack, Sam Jackson, Stephen King story. Previews look good

[bobobrazil1984 0]

Everything can't be successful so there has to be some flops in there.

 

I think that Transformers won't flop but will do "average" business considering the big budget and summer blockbuster-ish-ness of the movie. Basically it will be the King Kong or Hulk of this summer.

 

I also think Evan Almighty isn't going to do a lot of business. Just a hunch.

 

I also think "Live Free or Die Hard" and "Ocean's Thirteen" are possibilities to join the flop club, though the latter might depend more on when in the summer it's released. If it catches a "cold" week it could rip up the box office.

 

I also think that one of the big Part 3s (Spidey, Pirates, Shrek) is going to do disappointing business but I can't decide which one.

[foleyfanforever88 0]

Shrek will do really well, but not what Rattatouie will do (PDI v Pixar, I'll go with Pixar almost everytime).

 

Even when the PDI movie is something that was HUGE last time around and the Pixar movie looks stupid as hell? I say Shrek 3 will make atleast 1.2x what Rattatouie does.

[Special K 0]

I don't think Transformers or Evan Almighty are going to do well.

 

Especially not seeing as Evan Almighty cost $175 millions freakin' dollars? What were they thinking?!?

 

Transformers seems to have absolutely none of the elements that made the series fun, and I think people are finally catching on that Michael Bay is a hack. No stars, either. Not a good sign when both previews I've seen in the theater, it was loudly heckled.

 

I don't see Evan Almighty as playingto Steve Carrell's strengths. It looks like Dr. Doolittle.

 

I think Pirates and Spider-Man will take the top spots, though in which order I don't know.

[RHR 0]

1. Pirates of the Carribean:400 million---Last one of a high grossing series, and mom, dad, and the kids can all go

2. Shrek 3:400 million---Same as above, but, PoC will have thismuch more drawing power

3. Spiderman 3: 300 million---Not getting as much buzz, and, it's coming out next week and no one I know has said "Hey...wanna go see Spidey?"

4. Harry Potter: 225 million---as they get older, the audience seems to grow, I see this being a feasible number.

5. Ratatouille: 225 million---in line with "Cars"

6. Bourne Ultimatium: 200 millions---everyone I know thinks the Bourne movies rock, and 40YOV little shout out helps

7. The Simpsons: 200 million---HOWEVER, if this does not suck, it has potential to make tons more

8. Evan Almighty: 160 million---Steve Carell can carry it, NBC will help promote it, it's "safe"

9. I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry: 150 million. Eh, I could take it or leave it. But, freakin' Click made $135 million, so, this should be slightly more.

10. Fantastic Four 2: 125 million---Eh, it's a comic book movie...and it will be better than...

11. Transformers: 115 million---Will suck. Will bomb. However, it will not affect Shia Labeoufs popularity.

12. Rush Hour 3: 110 million---It's been too long.

13. Knocked Up: 100 million---Again, safe comedy.

14. Ocean's 13: 100 million--On star power alone. But, if it is better than 12, it will make a little more.

15. Live Free or Die Hard: 90 million---And, I think it will be really good. But no one cares anymore.

 

The rest is all going to be surprising. I think 28 Weeks Later and Superbad will be big "hits", falling short of $85 million, but, making a pretty penny.