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Cheech Tremendous

The 2008 MLB Offseason Thread

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Phillies have signed Raul Ibanez to a 3-year, $30 million deal. So I guess not having any interest in keeping Pat Burrell had nothing to do with possibly upgrading their defense in left field.

What the hell? There must be some behind the scenes stuff with Burrell that we don't know about. Not only is a far superior player than Ibanez, he's five years younger. The fact that he wasn't even offered arbitration, yet they went out and spent $30 million on Ibanez suggests that there is something fishy going on.

I imagine the deal will look like 8, 10 and 12 million. Perhaps they felt that Burrell might cost in the neighborhood of $14-16 million, and they could not stomach the extra cost.

 

This is a fine deal on its face. The problem is that it looks odd in the big picture. Two of the Phillies' best hitters are Utley and Howard, both lefties.* The Phillies have two reserve outfielders who both hit left-handed. They are going to need a righty presence beyond Jayson Werth.

 

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So I guess the Yankees have turned off "Let's stock up on our farm system and develop" mode and turned on "Let's give anyone that can wear a glove properly $5M/yr" mode. $16M/yr for Burnett is ridiculous.

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For those TSM readers that enjoy sabermetrics, I encourage you to sample the new and improved fangraphs.com. Fangraphs was always one of my favorite sites do to their excellent clutch stats (like WPA).

 

They've now beefed up their site considerably with regards to sabermetric hitting, pitching and fielding stats (plus Marcel's 2009 projections). Pay particularly close attention to the fielding page and the UZR and UZR/150 stats. This is the new "Ultimate Zone Rating" stat, basically the first freely available version for fans of John Dewan's tremendous +/- work. These are real defensive stats, based on actual play-by-play data.

 

If acronyms bother you, or you're having trouble figuring out what any of this shit means, take some time to read the FAQ thread. I can be of some help too if you are confused.

 

They are now getting writing contributions from Tangotiger (who wrote The Book) and the guys from USS Mariner. Essentially, they now have best stats guys AND writers in the sabermetric community contributing to the site.

 

Basically, this is the site that Baseball Prospectus should be. And it's all totally free!

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So I guess the Yankees have turned off "Let's stock up on our farm system and develop" mode and turned on "Let's give anyone that can wear a glove properly $5M/yr" mode. $16M/yr for Burnett is ridiculous.

 

They're paying him that money to be a #4, which is about all he is. Burnett has great stuff, no doubt. The issue I would have would be that two of his best seasons were in walk years. Every other year, he's hurt with a varying cocktail of shoulder/arm soreness.

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He's going to be a number 3. And last year he had a dominant 2nd half.

 

You can compare him to Josh Beckett. Here are the last 4 seasons for each:

 

183 innings per season

3.80 ERA

3.32 bb/9

8.89 k/9

 

190 innings per season

3.94 ERA

2.45 bb/9

8.19 k/9

 

Oh shit! which one is which!?

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Apparently the Yankees pulled the trigger on Burnett. Five years, $82.5 million.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3765754

I actually like AJ Burnett a lot and think he's a legit #2 or #3 pitcher when he's healthy. However, since I hate the Yankees and I'm not allowed to say anything nice, here's this for you to ponder:

 

IP last four years

 

Tim Wakefield: 225, 140, 189, 181=184 IP a season

AJ Burnett: 209, 136, 166, 221= 183 IP a season

 

ERA+

Tim Wakefield: 109, 103, 100, 112=106 ERA+ (innings weighted)

AJ Burnett: 115, 115 ,109, 105=110 ERA+ (innings weighted)

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With all of these massive free agent signings, I can't help but wonder why the other 20 or so teams even bother to try any more. Sure, they may have some awesome prospects in their system, but once they can test the free agent waters then they will just go to the highest bidder (which is usually the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, or Dodgers). I know its the players right to try and make as much money as they can while they can, but I can't help but wonder how many of these teams would be able to keep their top players if MLB didn't have a laughable salary cap system in place.

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Probably because they see teams like the Marlins, Rays and Rockies, who have all sniffed or won a WS in recent history.

 

Only to be purged the follow season.....

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Guest Czecherbear

One of those aforementioned teams was purged, and that's because the Miami Dolphins are their slumlord in a city that doesn't care much for major league regular season baseball. Teams with less money try to beat the Yankees because many of them can and do beat the Yankees. This whole "em ell bee needs a salary cap!" thing is the canard of the baseball retarded. Here's a salary cap: the impending second great depression.

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Probably because they see teams like the Marlins, Rays and Rockies, who have all sniffed or won a WS in recent history.

 

Only to be purged the follow season.....

 

The Yankees haven't won in 8 years!

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With six divisions, a wild card and three rounds of playoffs, it is really almost impossible for a team to buy it's way to a World Championship. The current system ensures a team controls a player for their first six seasons. Given that most players reach the majors at the ages of 23-24. that carries them through most of their prime. MLB success is usually determined via a team's scouting and development systems.

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Reports say the Yankees have dropped out of the Sheets pursuit..."too many red flags." I think they're banking on bringing back Andy Pettite at this point. I would guess Sheets ends up with the Rangers at this point.

 

Surprised there hasn't been more Adam Dunn talk...I guess maybe more teams will get interested after Tex and Manny sign.

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Reports say the Yankees have dropped out of the Sheets pursuit..."too many red flags." I think they're banking on bringing back Andy Pettite at this point. I would guess Sheets ends up with the Rangers at this point.

 

Surprised there hasn't been more Adam Dunn talk...I guess maybe more teams will get interested after Tex and Manny sign.

 

 

Cashman did fly out to Houston earlier this week to meet with Andy. Plus from my understanding, if the Yankees signed Sheets they wouldnt be able to sign Manny or Tex. This would be due to the Yankees signing three type A free agents (Sheets, AJ, CC) which would be their cap. If they sign Andy they would still be able to go after Manny or Tex.

 

You are right about Dunn but you have to add in that Pat Burrell and Bobby Abreu are both still on the market. With Raul Ibanez only getting 10 million a year average, I cant picture any of those 3 getting more than 12, 14 tops a year.

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* Aquilino Lopez

* Joey Gathright, John Bale

* Jamie Burke

* Joe Nelson

* Aaron Miles, Randy Flores, Tyler Johnson

* Norris Hopper, Gary Majewski, Matt Belisle

* Doug Mathis

* Daniel Cabrera, Lance Cormier

* Denny Bautista

* Ty Wigginton, Reggie Abercrombie

* Jonny Gomes

* Willy Taveras

* Takashi Saito, Scott Proctor, Yhency Brazoban, Angel Berroa

* Clay Hensley and Charlie Haeger

* Chris Britton and Justin Christian

* Tim Redding

* Chris Capuano

* Kevin Cash

* Chuck James

* Chris Burke, Robby Hammock, Wil Ledezma, Jeff Salazar

 

Non-tender list from MLBtraderumors.

 

If the Phillies were interested in Mark DeRosa, then they need to get Wigginton signed, since he is just DeRosa without the need to give up a prospect.

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I've always liked Ty Wigginton. It's a shame he can't find a consistent spot somewhere. David Wright swooped in and took his job with the Mets, then Evan Longoria with the Rays. It'd break my heart to see that guy with the Phils!

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Wow, Wigginton had a really good year last season. A bunch of teams should be interested in him, hell he could be that right handed bat Cincy needs. In GABP he could hit .285 with 30 HR's and a .350-.370 OBP if healthy. I wonder what he'd cost.

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Lot of guys on that list who could contribute as a fourth outfielder or platoon mate. As for as the Red Sox are concerned, I wouldn't mind looking at Jonny Gomes, or maybe even a Willy Taveras or Joey Gathright. Those guys would be a decent compliment to Baldelli (if they end up signing him).

 

Daniel Cabrera might have some value as a middle reliever. The control will always be an issue, but I think you could minimize that with proper leverage.

 

Saito must me really fucked if he didn't get an offer. Ledezma and Majewski have had value before so there might be something there.

 

I'd be all over Wigginton, but he'll go somewhere he can start. The Twins would be a good fit.

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Joe Nelson 2008 stats

 

3-1, 54 innings, 42 hits, 12 earned runs, 22 walks, 60 strikeouts, 2.00 era, era plus 213, whip 1.185.

 

He wanted to make $800,000 for 2009 and the Marlins only wanted to pay him $600,000. The host on Wfan Adam the Bull was blasting the Marlins for non tendering him. How the hell do you let a pitcher like that go over 200,000.

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No More D-Cab in Baltimore...YAY!

 

and Mark Teixeira will supposedly be at the Ravens/Steelers game tomorrow though it really means nothing I suppose.

 

 

I am sure he wants to sign with the Orioles so that he can battle the Blue Jays for 4th place every year.

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