2006-07 MLB Offseason Thread

[vivalaultra 0]

That's a terrible picture of Hunter Pence.

 

And there's also prospects Matt Albers, Troy Patton, Mark McLemore, Chris Sampson, Brooks Conrad, Jimmy Barthmaier, and Felipe Paulino del Guidice.

 

Wait...one of those doesn't belong.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

YEAR TEAM POS G PO A E DP AdjG Rate RAR RAA Rate2 RAR2 RAA2 BatOut EQR

2004 BOS-A FB 47 263 25 1 14 30.4 100 2 0 100 2 0 81 8

2004 MIN-A FB 77 661 37 4 61 73.4 96 2 -3 96 2 -3 216 35

2005 NY_-N FB 83 691 42 4 59 76.2 94 0 -5 94 1 -5 211 35

2006 KC_-A FB 90 749 42 3 83 82.3 93 0 -6 93 0 -6 231 46

 

Doug's defense has been starting to slip the past few seasons. I think the statistics might underrate him slightly, but I'd want more of a sure thing if I'm putting up with a .700 OPS. New York seems to have a history of doing this sort of thing. Building an all-star hitting machine all around the diamond and then totally punting offense at one position. But they win pennants, so I can't really question the results, even if I do question the logic.

[Guest NYankees]

Wfan has just reported it is a done deal. The Yankees get 2 minor league pitching prospects, a defensive ss in AAA and a relief pitcher. Al when you get the chance can you please evaluate the trade. Another factor is that the Yankees were able to get rid of Johnson and not have to pay a penny for his 2007 salary. How soon do the Yankees sign Clemens?

[Guest NYankees]

YEAR TEAM POS G PO A E DP AdjG Rate RAR RAA Rate2 RAR2 RAA2 BatOut EQR

2004 BOS-A FB 47 263 25 1 14 30.4 100 2 0 100 2 0 81 8

2004 MIN-A FB 77 661 37 4 61 73.4 96 2 -3 96 2 -3 216 35

2005 NY_-N FB 83 691 42 4 59 76.2 94 0 -5 94 1 -5 211 35

2006 KC_-A FB 90 749 42 3 83 82.3 93 0 -6 93 0 -6 231 46

 

Doug's defense has been starting to slip the past few seasons. I think the statistics might underrate him slightly, but I'd want more of a sure thing if I'm putting up with a .700 OPS. New York seems to have a history of doing this sort of thing. Building an all-star hitting machine all around the diamond and then totally punting offense at one position. But they win pennants, so I can't really question the results, even if I do question the logic.

 

 

He was only signed to play one year. It was either signing him or giving a headcase like Shea Hillenbrand 6-8 million. The Yankees are not going to lose out on the playoffs because they played Doug at first base.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

On the RJ trade, I consider it a mild thumbs up for both teams. The Yankees weren't really interested in having Johnson as part of their rotation next year and unloading his entire salary frees their hands for more interesting items (Clemens, Willis?). I still think it could backfire because of the question marks surrounding the starting pitching this year. But with the stockpile of arms they've acquired, they have flexibility. In fact, I'd almost guarantee that this is the precursor to another separate deal seeing as how none of the guys they acquired are particularly interesting (although the bullpen will be improved).

 

For Arizona, they acquire another frontline pitcher. I'd consider them in the mix for the NL West pennant next year. Some of the stat community thinks Johnson's performance last year was mostly based on bad luck. I don't hold that same view. I think his high BABIP and AVG with runners on are reflective of his diminishing skills. But a 200 inning guy has value, even in the 4.00-5.00 ERA range.

[The Man in Blak 0]

With Johnson being as old as he is, can you really just pencil him in for 200 innings and be done with it? Arizona is accepting way too much risk in this deal, in my opinion, especially when you consider how much money they're taking on.

[Guest NYankees]

Al, I need your sabermatics. I was just listening to Michael Kay and he claimed that the reason why Randy Johnson had a high era was due to him pitching to the score. This is due to the Yankees always giving Randy alot of runs whenever he started. To me, Michael Kay seems pretty ignorant for a person who watches every pitch of the Yankees games. Michael Kay was also claiming that a pitchers wins is not a team stat and that era doesn't mean anything.

[naiwf 0]

Pitching to the score means you shouldn't be laboring by the 4th or 5th inning of most starts. Kay was full of shit as usual.

[Guest NYankees]

My favorite Randy Johnson game was earlier this year. The Yankees scored 4 runs in the top of the first and Randy gave up 4 or 5 in the bottom of the first agains the Blue Jays. He gave up more runs in the second and was knocked out. I guess he was pitching to the score.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Pitching to the score is one of those mythological baseball things like lineup protection or clutch hitting. It's not that it doesn't exist, it's just that no one can seem to prove it, and if it does exist, it's probably insignificant in the grand scheme of things. RJ had a high ERA last year because he gave up more hits than normal when he had men on base. Baseball Prospectus thinks this is bad luck and that his true ERA is closer to 3.50 or 4.00. My contention is that he was hit harder with men on because he can't pitch out of the stretch. His age/back problems cause a higher burden in situations where he needs outs the most. But that's just my two cents.

[Guest NYankees]

Pitching to the score is one of those mythological baseball things like lineup protection or clutch hitting. It's not that it doesn't exist, it's just that no one can seem to prove it, and if it does exist, it's probably insignificant in the grand scheme of things. RJ had a high ERA last year because he gave up more hits than normal when he had men on base. Baseball Prospectus thinks this is bad luck and that his true ERA is closer to 3.50 or 4.00. My contention is that he was hit harder with men on because he can't pitch out of the stretch. His age/back problems cause a higher burden in situations where he needs outs the most. But that's just my two cents.

 

 

Thats a very good point. Randy is also another year older and coming off of back surgery. This was clearly the Yankees plan A but they do need a plan b which is getting Clemens.

[CanadianChris 0]

One of these years, Clemens is going to decline.

 

 

 

Isn't he?

[Precious Roy 0]

One theory on Johnson's poor performance with runners on is that his herniated disk caused great discomfort pitching from the stretch, which resulted in a lot of flat, hanging sliders. I think that's a pretty accurate assessment.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

One of these years, Clemens is going to decline.

 

 

 

Isn't he?

 

Until he does, it's hard to predict. However, I don't think a season in the AL East is what the doctor prescribed.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

One theory on Johnson's poor performance with runners on is that his herniated disk caused great discomfort pitching from the stretch, which resulted in a lot of flat, hanging sliders. I think that's a pretty accurate assessment.

 

It is true that Randy's numbers were poor with runners on relative to his performance with the bases empty. This has caused a bone of contention amongst many statheads. Randy Johnson had a similar strikeout and walk rate with runners on. However, his BABIP skyrocketed, as did his GB/FB ratio. Normally, we write that sort of thing off as bad luck. In fact, it's counterintuitive to our normal thought process to think that this would make him a worse pitcher. Less FBs = less HRs = better pitching, right?

 

Well, not necessarily. Pichers who give up the most hits tend to do it on the ground. While less balls leave the park that way, a groundball is a lot more likely to break through for a hit. Second, BABIP isn't always luck-based. Pitchers with high GB rates tend to have a subsequently higher BABIP. The notion that pitchers have little control over what balls become outs is generally overstated, at least in my opinion.

 

The numbers certainly support the theory that Johnson has trouble pitching out of the stretch. Why would that be? Well, if he loses a couple of miles an hour off his fastball, or overly relies on a certain pitch (slider), it's more likely that batters hit him hard. That's why his numbers inflated with runners on, and that is why he is probably closer to the 5.00 ERA pitcher we got last year than the 3.50 ERA that PECOTA projects for 2007.

[EVIL~! alkeiper 0]

Al, I need your sabermatics. I was just listening to Michael Kay and he claimed that the reason why Randy Johnson had a high era was due to him pitching to the score. This is due to the Yankees always giving Randy alot of runs whenever he started. To me, Michael Kay seems pretty ignorant for a person who watches every pitch of the Yankees games. Michael Kay was also claiming that a pitchers wins is not a team stat and that era doesn't mean anything.

It's usually a bullshit statement. Let's take this start for example.

 

http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/B07290NYA2006.htm

 

A fine job of pitching to the score, if I say so myself.

[Precious Roy 0]

One theory on Johnson's poor performance with runners on is that his herniated disk caused great discomfort pitching from the stretch, which resulted in a lot of flat, hanging sliders. I think that's a pretty accurate assessment.

 

It is true that Randy's numbers were poor with runners on relative to his performance with the bases empty. This has caused a bone of contention amongst many statheads. Randy Johnson had a similar strikeout and walk rate with runners on. However, his BABIP skyrocketed, as did his GB/FB ratio. Normally, we write that sort of thing off as bad luck. In fact, it's counterintuitive to our normal thought process to think that this would make him a worse pitcher. Less FBs = less HRs = better pitching, right?

 

Well, not necessarily. Pichers who give up the most hits tend to do it on the ground. While less balls leave the park that way, a groundball is a lot more likely to break through for a hit. Second, BABIP isn't always luck-based. Pitchers with high GB rates tend to have a subsequently higher BABIP. The notion that pitchers have little control over what balls become outs is generally overstated, at least in my opinion.

 

The numbers certainly support the theory that Johnson has trouble pitching out of the stretch. Why would that be? Well, if he loses a couple of miles an hour off his fastball, or overly relies on a certain pitch (slider), it's more likely that batters hit him hard. That's why his numbers inflated with runners on, and that is why he is probably closer to the 5.00 ERA pitcher we got last year than the 3.50 ERA that PECOTA projects for 2007.

 

Right, but all of that kind of ignores the theory that I posited. You're basing your prediction for him solely on last year's performance.

 

If the surgery was successfull in alleviating some of the stiffness in Johnson's back that led to him throwing weak sliders and leaving pitches up in the zone (leading to that horrible GB/FB ratio), theoretically his performance with runners on will improve. Just based on his track record you have to think that such gaudy numbers were an aberration.

 

I guess it comes down to whether or not you believe his back will be in better shape, not 100% but better than last year, which I do, and whether or not you think he has any gas left in his tank. A lot of people think he doesn't, I respectfully disagree.

 

I thought he would have a good year in Pinstripes, and I have to believe he'll pitch well for the Diamondbacks. I think he's going to shut up everyone who's claiming he's done.

[TheDevilAndGodAreRagingInsideMe 0]

Arizona clearly wants the posterboy of the franchise to take the field in those sharp new uni's.

[vivalaultra 0]

Peavy arrested after run-in with police at airportAssociated Press

 

 

MOBILE, Ala. -- San Diego Padres pitcher Jake Peavy was arrested and charged with disorderly conduct Thursday at Mobile Regional Airport.

 

 

The 25-year-old Mobile native was taken to the Mobile County Metro Jail shortly before 7 a.m. and was released on a $350 bond, according to the jail log.

 

Airport Police Chief James Kincaid would not say what led to Peavy's arrest, but he told the Press-Register newspaper that "a situation presented itself and the officers involved felt like they had a situation to deal with."

 

Padres general manager Kevin Towers told The Associated Press he was told that Peavy was headed for a goodwill tour of the Dominican Republic with other major league players when he double-parked to drop off his bags and was told by airport police to move his car.

 

"The airport police told him he couldn't park his car there and he said, 'Write me up a ticket and I'll pay for it,'" Towers said. "He was arrested."

 

A message left on Peavy's cell phone wasn't immediately returned. Peavy's agent, Barry Axelrod, didn't respond to an e-mail and a call to his cell phone.

 

Kincaid said the incident occurred around 5:20 a.m. just outside the terminal building.

 

Peavy has a career record of 57-45, all with the Padres. He was 11-14 with a 4.09 ERA last season.

 

Copyright 2007 by The Associated Press

 

I hope this will cause the Padres to trade Jake Peavy to the Astros for Wandy Rodriguez. It would send a message that Kevin Tower's don't employ no hooligans, yo.

[the max 0]

He was arrested by airport police? That's sad.

[Mik 0]

I hope this will cause the Padres to trade Jake Peavy to the Astros for Wandy Rodriguez. It would send a message that Kevin Tower's don't employ no hooligans, yo.

 

How exactly were you able to make a story about Jake Peavy getting arrested about the Astros? Jesus.

[The Man in Blak 0]

Maybe only Tim Purpura can find a way to tame Jake Peavy's anti-authoritarian tendencies. Perhaps he could give Jake a tractor.

[Cheech Tremendous 0]

Right, but all of that kind of ignores the theory that I posited. You're basing your prediction for him solely on last year's performance.

 

If the surgery was successfull in alleviating some of the stiffness in Johnson's back that led to him throwing weak sliders and leaving pitches up in the zone (leading to that horrible GB/FB ratio), theoretically his performance with runners on will improve. Just based on his track record you have to think that such gaudy numbers were an aberration.

 

I guess it comes down to whether or not you believe his back will be in better shape, not 100% but better than last year, which I do, and whether or not you think he has any gas left in his tank. A lot of people think he doesn't, I respectfully disagree.

 

I thought he would have a good year in Pinstripes, and I have to believe he'll pitch well for the Diamondbacks. I think he's going to shut up everyone who's claiming he's done.

 

It also depends on whether or not you feel that Johnson's bad back has been alleviated, or that it was a cascading injury caused by his faulty knees. I don't think any of us know either way. Regardless, I think Randy Johnson, injury or not, will outperform Pettitte, Igawa and Pavano next year, and has at least a decent chance of being better than Wang and Mussina as well.

 

Also wanted to point out that the Dbacks are trying to restructure the $40 million in deffered money they still owed RJ into stock options now that he is back with the team. Trading for him might actually save them money in the long run, as crazy as that might sound.

[Guest Smues]

The M's signed Chris Reitsma to a 1-year deal apparantly worth $2 million. He's still young and I'm guessing they're hoping he'll return to return to form and be an average reliever and not last years "jesus christ make the hurting stop" reliever. As much pain as he caused me last year as a Braves fan, I guess I wish him luck in Seattle since he doesn't seem like a bad guy.

[Guest Smues]

Ok so he's 29, not as young as I thought, but still he could rebound and not totally suck ass.

 

Just got this in my e-mail:

MARINERS SIGN RELIEVER REITSMA

 

The Mariners signed 29-year old reliever Chris Reitsma to a one-year

deal with an option for 2008. The 6-foot-5 righty pitched for the

Braves in 2006 before undergoing season-ending surgery. The former

1st round draft pick totaled a 3.93 ERA with 15 saves for Atlanta

in 76 games in 2005.

 

Gee I can't imagine why they omitted his 2006 line! (8.68 ERA, 8 saves, 27 games)

[bob_barron 0]

I can't believe someone bothered to pick up Reitsma. Given that he botched the 04 and 05 NLDS, I hope he continues the success he had in Atlanta on Seattle.

[Mik 0]

The Marlins have finalized plans for a retractable roof ballpark in Miami Dade county, keeping the team in Florida. It still needs to be approved by the county and city boards but will NOT go to a public vote, which is what killed the other 5 or so times they made it this far.

 

I have faith this will get done as the head baseball negotiating man is MLB's Bob DuPuy and not shit-for-brains David Samson of the Marlins.

 

If this happens, the next thing I want to see is Miguel Cabrera signed to a 7 year, $140 million contract. No more excuses after this.

 

Here's the article for anyone interested: http://florida.marlins.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/...sp&c_id=fla

[bob_barron 0]

Why do the Fish need a new stadium anyway? And if they want one so bad, why can't they pay for it out of their own pocket?

[TheDevilAndGodAreRagingInsideMe 0]

Caption this one:

 

[Guest "Go, Mordecai!"]

Why do the Fish need a new stadium anyway? And if they want one so bad, why can't they pay for it out of their own pocket?

1) They have to pay ridiculously high rent at Dolphin Stadium and don't get any parking or concession revenue

2) Loria is a cheapass.

 

But WOW! I am SO glad that Miami gets to keep a pro sports team after all! Because after all, when I think of the great sports towns in America, I think of St. Louis, Chicago, and Miami.