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Cheech Tremendous

The 2008 MLB Offseason Thread

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30. Houston Astros: Houston's farm system looks like General Sherman marched through it, then turned around and marched through it again just to be sure the job was done. The Astros' 2007 draft class might turn out to be one of the worst in history: They had no picks in the first round (for Carlos Lee) or second round (for the now-retired Woody Williams), and they failed to sign either their third- or fourth-round pick (one of whom, Georgia Tech shortstop Derek Dietrich, looks like a sure top-50 pick for 2010). Two of the top six players they did sign were released in October, and their top signed pick, Colin Dellome, just posted a .305 OBP in high-A at age 22.

 

Their 2008 draft was better -- not that it could have been worse -- with two promising high school arms in Ross Seaton and Jordan Lyles and one solid catching prospect in Jason Castro. The organization's decision to turn its back on Venezuela might reflect the nation's political instability, but it also leaves the Astros among the least-advanced teams in international scouting. There are lean times ahead in Houston, and even a massive shift toward rebuilding won't stop the oncoming drought.

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Quick note Cheech. I'm not certain any projections on Howard are admissible in an arbitration case. He's getting evaluated purely on what he already produced.

 

Jeff Kent HOF? I say yes. Any second baseman who hit that well and had as long a career is in. His teams made the playoffs seven times, so obviously his attitude and defense were not serious detriments to the team.

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Quick note Cheech. I'm not certain any projections on Howard are admissible in an arbitration case. He's getting evaluated purely on what he already produced.

Oh, you're right. I just wanted to do a little exercise to figure out what he might get versus what's he actually worth. And while projections aren't really admissible, they are based on past performance. So there is some correlation there with value.

 

I have a hard time figuring out his case. On one had, he's got the HR, RBI and hardware (MVP, ROY) that carry a ton of weight in these negotiations. On the other, he's not a premier player. Well, check that, he is a top player but not at the level that he'd warrant one of the highest salaries in baseball during his second year of arbitration.

 

Howard also has weird trends. He was great in 2006, but awful in 2008. Does he settle back at '07 levels, or is he already declining? It's hard to tell.

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http://www.madison.com/wsj/mad/breaking_news/434262

 

The Brewers and star first baseman Prince Fielder have agreed in principle on a two-year contract that will enable the sides to avoid the arbitration process this year and next, a club official told SI.com. Fielder's new Brewers deal is for about $18 million.

 

 

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The Mets just signed Freddy Garcia to a one-year minor league (!) deal which could reach up to $9 million should he make the team and meet all incentives.

 

http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/mets/2009...-with-mets.html

 

The squad's got plenty of back-end rotation options now (Garcia, Redding, Niese, Maine, Pelfrey if he regresses) which is nice considering the bad luck they've had with pitching injuries the last couple years. I hope they'll pursue Sheets but I'd be fairly comfortable with the rotation if they decide to go with Perez, Garland, or Wolf.

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Is it just the fact that he hasn't actually played a professional game that makes Pedro Alvarez rank so inconsistently on these lists? Baseball America had him as #3 overall behind the obvious top 2 and #1 in the NL, but MLB.com and Keith Law both didn't even list him top 25.

Some analysts don't rank players until they have at least some professional experience under their belt. I haven't seen the rest of MLB.com or Keith Law's lists, but if he isn't ranked anywhere that's probably the case.

I just found out that he ranks him 38th. He actually has him third place in the Pirates system.

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The Mets officially announce that they aren't interested in Manny. Great job Mets! Stay away from the one player who could get your team into the World Series. Coupon Fred strikes again!

 

Did you really want them to sign him for 4 yrs/$100 million or whatever his ridiculous demands are?

 

In other news of the truly exciting, it looks like Craig Counsell will be back with the Brewers. Reportedly 1 yr/$1 million. Not actually a terrible move if he doesn't play too much.

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The Mets officially announce that they aren't interested in Manny. Great job Mets! Stay away from the one player who could get your team into the World Series. Coupon Fred strikes again!

 

Did you really want them to sign him for 4 yrs/$100 million or whatever his ridiculous demands are?

 

In other news of the truly exciting, it looks like Craig Counsell will be back with the Brewers. Reportedly 1 yr/$1 million. Not actually a terrible move if he doesn't play too much.

 

It's not my money, so why not? We don't have a decent corner outfielder on the team or a guy who has proven he can hit in September & October. Any money they shell out on Manny would be recouped from jersey and/or ticket sales and increased interest in the team. It's not like we're asking them to break the bank for a capable bat with little to no name value. It doesn't matter though since the Mets won't go after Hudson because they're too stubborn to just eat Castillo's contract and send him away. The Mets may be the only professional sports franchise who will spend well over $100 million on payroll and then worry about nickels and dimes (Hudson not Manny) with a new stadium opening up.

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Manny Ramirez would be perfect for the Mets. I don't understand this. Who the hell would want to face Reyes, Wright, Beltran, Ramirez, and Delgado? That's a crazy ass lineup.

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Manny's a terrible fit for the Mets. That team was second in runs scored last year (in a pitcher's park), so it's not like they need to add any offense. I don't know how the dimensions are in the new park, but any scenario where Manny has to play the field is a bad one. Given his ridiculous salary demands, the Mets could find a much better use of their resources.

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Considering how their pitching staff looks right now, it wouldn't be the worst idea to sign Manny. After Johan Santana you have question marks. Maine is returning from injury. Pelfrey is still young, and who are the other starters? They have to outhit teams.

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Manny's a terrible fit for the Mets. That team was second in runs scored last year (in a pitcher's park), so it's not like they need to add any offense. I don't know how the dimensions are in the new park, but any scenario where Manny has to play the field is a bad one. Given his ridiculous salary demands, the Mets could find a much better use of their resources.

 

The problem is that they don't seem to be willing to use them. Look at who they've signed this offseason and who was available. They only got K-Rod because he signed for pennies on the dollar relative to what he was expecting and have steered clear of anyone who is asking for more than a short term/incentive laden contract. We don't have legit starters at 2B, LF and there are still a lot of question marks in the rotation and RF as well. Stockpiling a bunch of # 6 starters is not going to be the answer, but that seems to be what Omar's been busy doing since he got K-Rod & Putz.

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With the money they'd have to spend on Manny they could probably afford both Sheets and one of the other decent starters floating around. I'd much rather they go that route.

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But are they even going to go after Sheets? They let Lowe -- a bonafide #2 pitcher who would have filled a gaping hole in their rotation -- slip through their fingers because they didn't want to pay any more than the bare minimum. Yes, wonderful. They addressed their bullpen. But unfortunately, there's still the lackluster rotation to worry about. As well as the incredibly weak second baseman, the unproven left field platoon, and the first baseman who they should have traded this offseason while his value was high and is bound to come crashing back down to earth this season.

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It was a good idea to bring back Counsell. He seems to know what he's doing out there, fairly reliable in run situations, not too much money. I think he might be retarded, though.

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Given the contracts the Mets have shelled out the last few years for Johan Santana, Carlos Beltran, etc., I don't think the Mets can be accused of being cheap. They need to spend on a pitcher. Their current LF option is far better than their fifth starter.

 

can anyone tell me anything about brandon lyon? i know he closed for the dbacks for a bit last year. whats to like about him? whats not to like?

 

Lyon's a good talent, but he could never stay healthy long enough for his career to gather any momentum. If he's the Tigers' closer, he is a fine option until he hits the DL. With that team, he'll fit right in.

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The Royals signed Zach Greinke to a four year deal, terms yet undisclosed. This is a big deal since Greinke is one of the better young pitchers in baseball, and this buys out two years worth of free agency.

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Somehow, Jason Varitek was able to squeeze a 2nd year option out of the Red Sox, but has yet to sign. The club has a $5 million option, but Varitek has a $3 million player option, guaranteeing at least $8 million over two years. After declining the $10 million arbitration offer, I think he's lucky to get two years anywhere, so I imagine he'll sign it.

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Somehow, Jason Varitek was able to squeeze a 2nd year option out of the Red Sox, but has yet to sign. The club has a $5 million option, but Varitek has a $3 million player option, guaranteeing at least $8 million over two years. After declining the $10 million arbitration offer, I think he's lucky to get two years anywhere, so I imagine he'll sign it.

That's an odd player option. How many options are pay cuts over the previous season?

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Per the Boston Globe, Keith Foulke had a similar situation in 2006, when the Sox had a $7.5 million option and Foulke had one for $3.75 million. Both opted out and Foulke went to free agency.

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But are they even going to go after Sheets? They let Lowe -- a bonafide #2 pitcher who would have filled a gaping hole in their rotation -- slip through their fingers because they didn't want to pay any more than the bare minimum. Yes, wonderful. They addressed their bullpen. But unfortunately, there's still the lackluster rotation to worry about. As well as the incredibly weak second baseman, the unproven left field platoon, and the first baseman who they should have traded this offseason while his value was high and is bound to come crashing back down to earth this season.

 

 

Are you sure you want Sheets? Be prepared for Tommy John within the next year or so. If you're willing to write off a season, then he's worth it.

 

 

 

"Buster Olney hits upon quite a few free agent rumors in his behind-the-wall Sunday column. Amongst the more interesting tidbits is..... reports that pitcher Ben Sheets medical records have team concerned with his shoulder and not the forearm that sidelined him at the end of 2008. "http://www.faketeams.com/2009/1/4/70...ason-giambi-an

 

"As some have attested on other blogs, the MRIs of Sheets' shoulder sent to various teams have not looked good, and is, in all likelihood, the number one reason Sheets has yet to be signed when combined with the salary a starter of his caliber could rightfully desire. " http://www.puristbleedspinstripes.co...belong-in.html

 

"The latest injury for Sheets has been coined, “right triceps tightness,” but it might as well include the rotator cuff. In my clinical experience, I have seen very few baseball pitchers present with a pure, isolated “triceps strain”—rather, there is almost always an involvement of the rotator cuff muscles in what is called the “Quadrangular Space.”

 

"Why do these injuries continue to mount for Sheets? The culprit appears to be his high arm slot. Although it’s partly responsible for the large 12-6 curveball, it’s also responsible for taxing the rotator cuff to the max. As a rule of thumb, the higher the arm slot, the harder the rotator cuff and biceps must work to stabilize the head of the humerus. This places stress on the rotator cuff interval, which includes ligaments in the front of the shoulder that also add stability." http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/ar...ut-ben-sheets/

 

 

 

 

On a call in show in Cincy Reds medical director Tim Kremchek said he didn't think Sheets would pass a reds physical. Maybe different teams have different physicals, so maybe the Mets could sign him.

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